Hello everybody!
The last week, I was busy not only with private affairs, but also with getting two additional books about this war published. The War in Ukraine, Volume 7, is meanwhile out. As it sub-title is explaining, it’s covering the air war between Russia and Ukraine, back in period March-June 2022: the ‘last-before-last’ period in this conflict when some sort of ‘manoeuvre warfare’ was still possible. The next book about this conflict, War in Ukraine, Volume 8, is about to enter production, and to provide an extremely detailed reconstruction of the Battle of Kyiv, in February-April 2022…
Of course, there are going to be people complaining we’re ‘all the time covering the same topic’ (i.e. the start of Pudding’s all-out invasion). Thus, let me ascertain that ‘we’ (the team including the involved authors and the people working at Helion, the publisher for which I’m working), are preparing much more - especially about (relatively) little-covered periods and battles of this conflict, fought in late 2022, and through 2023.
But, and that’s the point: while working on these two books, it became really ‘striking’ to figure out how much have ‘things’ changed over the last three years - and how much not at all.
Just for example: what did change was Pudding’s ‘successful’ debilitation of the once proud Armed Forces of the Soviet Union into an armed mob resembling the Basiji Corps of the modern-day Islamic Republic of Iran: gangs of armed people with next to no military training, mostly having no trace of an idea what are they supposed to do on the battlefields - and incapable of capturing the dog-house in neighbour’s backyard without losing 30 armoured vehicles (if they have any left to deploy for that purpose) and 2000 troops killed… but, armed, driving motorcycles, and custom-tailored to terrorise civilians into submission to his regime… or, how about Pudding’s ‘reform’ of the Russian security system into one controlling both the organised crime and the top branches of economy, in best traditions of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (of Iran), including the creation of his own pendant to the IRGC: his own ‘Pasdaran’ - the Rosgvardia…?
Which is bringing me to the part of the list about things that, tragically, didn’t change at all - which is far, far…really far bigger than the list of things that did change. The reason it’s Pudding that’s bringing me to this topic is the fact that the entire humanity is meanwhile firmly under control of what can be summarised by just one word: incompetence.
Yes, as smart as he is to have manoeuvred himself into his current position, Pudding is also hopelessly incompetent: he could’ve achieved much more than he did (so far).
However, the reason he has achieved anything at all is just a confirmation that our world is firmly under the control of institutionalised, systematic, and professional incompetence. This incompetence is everywhere and controlling nearly everything happening around us: it’s so massive and so overwhelming that it is dominating even the modern-day greed (which is an achievement of its own, worthy both the Nobel Prize for Economy and Peace) - not only every aspect of public and private life.
Unsurprisingly, it’s not only Pudding who is turning out to be incompetent (so much so: both Ukraine and ‘the West’ can consider themselves lucky and thank him for their survival… at least up to this point: there’s no guarantee this is going to remain that way and ‘our world’ is going to survive), but the mass of our oligarchy, and thus the politicians and the media they’re bribing to administer in their interest are at least as incompetent. Which is also the best summary coming to my mind for the reasons that even 11 years since Pudding’s original invasion of Ukraine, and 3 years since his ‘all-out invasion’, there’s no trace of an end to this conflict.
What am I talking about?
Well, it’s not only the political- and military leadership in Kyiv that has no ideas, no solutions, not even any kind of visions for how to conclude this war (especially not in successful fashion), but exactly the same incompetence is dominating affairs ‘further West’. It doesn’t matter whether it’s Warsaw, or Berlin, or Paris, London, Madrid… (the list is so long…) … all the way to Washington DC and Honolulu, too. It’s everywhere the same: greed, nonsense, stupidity, preference for getting distracted by ‘ambient sounds’, petty bickering… everything nicely summarised with ‘systematic incompetence’.
And that’s ‘just the top’ of politics. With such incompetence dominating the politics and economy, it can’t be anything better at the levels below: like any oligarchy through the history of humanity, our modern-day oligarchy is so much blinded by greed, that it frequently can’t even see how counterproductive - foremost for its own interests - its own actions are. Just, contrary to earlier times, nowadays that oligarchy is supported by entire armies of highly qualified advisors: whether those in different think-tanks or of other sorts. And, regardless what kind of diplomas from what of acclaimed (and extremely expensive) universities these have, the mass of them is as incompetent, too.
Unsurprisingly, another thingy that didn’t change over all of these years is ‘our’ ability to assess what’s going on - usually through sorting out what information is reliable, and important, and what not, then analysing the same, and drawing useful conclusions. In this regards, absolutely nothing changed since, for example, late February 2022. Back then, everybody was predicting a quick Russian win, and an even quicker Ukrainian collapse. What a surprise then, even a character as isolated and as dis-illusional as Pudding came to the idea that a ‘Sunday afternoon walk into Ukraine’ is going to secure him another quick and easy win, comparable with ‘Stalin’s best times’ from back in May 1945…
….and still, ‘our’ system of incompetence learned nothing at all from this. Instead, nowadays, entire armies of Experten here in the West are still preaching fantasies like ‘the Russian air force is not taking part of this war’ … they are still NOT training Ukrainian troops sent to be trained in ‘the West’ - nor ‘our’ own troops - in how to operate, but also how to counter UAVs… while at the same time they are expecting the VSRF to ‘Zhukov’ itself into Central- and Western Europe in sweeping manoeuvres by huge, fully mechanised formations… sometimes in 2028-2030…
What a surprise then, the incompetents in Kyiv are still expecting the ZSU to ‘win as easily as it won (a few battles) back in 2022… if only the West delivers’…?
…
I could go on with additional examples without an end. I have no doubt they would fill about a dozen of parts of this Don’s Weekly - and that in a matter of the next 20-30 minutes. Perhaps I’m going to do so in the coming days… all provided I finally find the time to do so.
But, right now, the point is this: considering all the incompetence dominating our world, and especially the incompetence of the government and the top brass of the ZSU in Kyiv, it is actually nothing short of a miracle, definitely an amazing achievement, that Ukraine ‘still stands’, that it’s still resisting Pudding’s invasion - and that, actually, with at least ‘reasonable amounts of success’.
This can be explained with only one factor: the Russian incompetence remains bigger, regardless of sternous efforts by ‘leaders’ in Kyiv to outmatch it.
Nowhere did this became more obvious in the last few days as much as in the Velyka Novosilka area, where five-, perhaps six depleted battalions of the ZSU (no, no ‘brigades’) are facing about a dozen of fully-manned Russian brigades (as far as the latter are not depleted by losses usually caused by systematic incompetence of their own commanders). Arguably, the incompetence of their superior generals is so overpowering that the ZSU battalions in question are going to lose this town, ‘too’: one simply can’t win even a single battle when generals are professional incompetents (and eager to demonstrate this fact at every opportunity). Should there be any doubts: see the French Army of May 1940.
…which in turn means that, just like the loss of Vuhledar resulted in the loss of a huge area in south-western Donets, now also the loss of Velyka Novosilka is going to result in the loss of a huge chunk of south-eastern Zaporizhzhya…
But still, alone the fact the ZSU battalions in question are still holding out there… my hat is off. Indeed: I’m deeply bowing in respect. Can only hope they are going to get out of that brawl on time, and with minimal losses, too.
They’ll have to do that on their own, though: expecting any of super-incompetent generals in Kyiv to issue a corresponding order… that’s like ‘Waiting for Godot’.
***
Kursk
The Russians attacked from Novoivanovka towards Sverdlikovo and lost 15 vehicles. They also attacked from Novoivanovka towards the villages in front of Malaya Loknya and lost 21 vehicles. Artillery, mines, drones and ATGM’s all played a part. Surviving infantry from the armored columns gathered in the woods outside of Sverdlikovo. The 225th Assault Battalion watched them mass in a confined location and hit them with cluster munitions before clearing the woods of survivors.
The 47th documents a lot of their kills. The 82nd Airborne Brigade made their contributions.
Pogrebki was hit by another MRL attack. The Russians report that the Ukrainian defenders are constructing more engineering obstacles and minefields next to their positions.
Ukrainian soldiers report that North Koreans fight differently than the Russians. They assault in groups of 40 without armored vehicles to support them. When they take heavy losses they do not regroup or retreat but will move through heavy fire across open fields that contain mines. If they seize a position they prepare for another assault and Russian troops behind them secure the position. Unlike Russians, they also remove their dead and wounded, either by pulling them by their arms or loading them onto sleds.
When drones are present, they send one soldier out as bait while others try to shoot it down, a tactic that has had some success and was recorded in a diary: “Simultaneously, the one baiting the drone keeps a distance of 7 meters, while those shooting stay 10-12 meters away. If the bait stands still, the drone will also stop moving. At this moment, the shooter eliminates the drone.”
Ukraine had been placing anti-personnel mines 15 meters apart but because of the denser North Korean assaults they are placing them 5 meters apart. Communication between North Koreans and Russians are still difficult so North Korean officers at Russian command posts talk to their troops and work with Russians to provide artillery support. North Korea provided about 120 170 mm gun and 120 240 mm MLRS so far and will likely send that many in the future.
North Korean reinforcements are expected to arrive in the next two months. About 4,000 of the 11-12,000 North Korean troops already sent have been killed or wounded since October. Several have committed suicide rather than surrender, and if a Russian drone operator sees a North Korean trying to surrender he will try to kill him. One of the two that did surrender tried to kill himself by running into a concrete pillar with his head but he later calmed down. A portion of the interrogation of one of the prisoners was released.
…and when that’s ‘not enough’, then the Russians are killing North Korean air defence systems, and celebrating this as a major success, too…
***
Kharkiv
In Vovchansk, a Russian air strike targeted the middle of the wasteland.
***
Kupiansk
The Russians have expanded their bridgehead over the Oskil river by Dvorichna. They made small gains elsewhere.
The 14th Brigade destroys an MT-LB on the front line.
Multiple drone teams destroy seven Russian vehicles in Pishchane before they can assault the front lines 3 km away.
Russian infantry and a BMP are attacked on the eastern edge of Kruhliakivka.
There was a lot of fighting around Makiivka, including this Russian rocket bombardment.
***
Terny
Ukraine tried to counterattack 2500 meters west of Ivanivka and Russia claims it cost them six armoured vehicles and 40 troops. Russia was unable to advance last week, perhaps because of the counterattacks.
***
(…to be continued…)
Interesting to read the differences in tactics used by the North Korean's and Russians.
Who knew their were so many different ways to get a lot of men killed for very little gain 🤷🏼♂️.
Thanks for your constant work Tom. I think that I live in a more stupid world that my fathers lived, and really think about the more stupid this wound became when My child have my age.
I think that individually we are, as humans, more stupid than before. We not reclaim, we not denounce envío, we not get move with the suffer of the guy beside me.
We not read any more. Only 5 minutes Reels, tik tok. We are all busy doing work to archive. We do not ask for acontability to our representants. Any of them. But we send memes.