The growing problems of Russia's economy will not bring a sudden end to the war, and the lack of stockpiles and production capability existed three years ago, as well.
This issue is not isolated to the war in Ukraine, either. Neither the US nor Europe has the stockpiles and production to fight a near-peer war. In addition, they don't have control for the sources of raw materials to create ammo and weapons. Most of the EU's source of gun cotton comes from China. Rheinmetall built a new factory in Germany that will lessen that dependency to some extent, but it does not eliminate it.
The US and EU need to reassess their ability to fight based on the existing and future threats and they need to establish a defense industry that will support that fight. One threat that Europe needs to consider is the reliability of the US as an ally.
I would like to comment about offer on Transnistria. Some not very intelligent people commented here and there they do not see how is that coal for free, if it is in exchange for electricity, or that this is barter transaction.
This is not a barter, because with barter you have to expend something to produce something that you will then exchange for some other products.
In this case Ukraine in effect offers a lease of their power plant, and for this lease transaction Ukraine will pay with all the heat and electricity they need for their use. So this is basically for free for Transnistria. Because they are renting out a plant that they can not use otherwise.
Over the past six months, 93 Ukrainian companies, despite the legal ban, got rid of the "Russian footprint" and continue to do business in Ukraine. Some of them even win state tenders. In general, at the beginning of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation in more than 18,000 companies in Ukraine had a Russian owner. By May 2024, 621 such businesses have lost their Russian owners. In the second half of last year – another 93. The largest number of companies that got rid of the Russian footprint are registered in Kyiv - 47 or 50.5%. Odeshchyna follows – 8 (8.6%), followed by Poltava – 5 (5.4%). It is noted that 19.4% of such companies are engaged in wholesale trade. Another 12.9% specialize in real estate transactions, and 9.7% in construction.
How the Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada created a deliberate error in the law, poured taxpayers' money into Mykhailo Fridman's Alfa-Bank so that it could not be nationalized by law. Friedman took the capital abroad, changed the name of the business by disguising it and formally gave it to his underlings under management.
• So, during a year of full-scale war, Ukraine did not take a systemically important bank from Russian oligarchs, despite the government's promises.
•The law on nationalization, already adopted during martial law, was written with such a "mistake" that made the nationalization of "Alfa Bank" ("Sens Bank") impossible from the very beginning.
•Four months have already passed (at the time of writing the article) - but this "error" has still not been corrected. Meanwhile, the law enforcement officers search, arrest and transfer the bank in parts to ARMA, which still cannot find a temporary manager of these shares.
"Everyone in the Pentagon that was working on support for Ukraine was fired, suspended or reassigned. In logic that only makes sense to Trump, he said that Putin shouldn’t have invaded and Zelensky shares the blame for the invasion because he decided to fight the Russian attack instead of making a deal. He also said that if Russia does not agree to negotiate he will impose massive tariffs, massive taxes and big sanctions, but he doesn’t want to do it because he loves Russia."
My take on Trump in his 2nd term of office, thus far:
Trump is a cross between a toxic narcissist & Daffy Duck.
We are in for a wild ride for however long he lasts in office. Better start looking closely at J. D. Vance and what he really might be like as President just in case.
The growing problems of Russia's economy will not bring a sudden end to the war, and the lack of stockpiles and production capability existed three years ago, as well.
This issue is not isolated to the war in Ukraine, either. Neither the US nor Europe has the stockpiles and production to fight a near-peer war. In addition, they don't have control for the sources of raw materials to create ammo and weapons. Most of the EU's source of gun cotton comes from China. Rheinmetall built a new factory in Germany that will lessen that dependency to some extent, but it does not eliminate it.
The US and EU need to reassess their ability to fight based on the existing and future threats and they need to establish a defense industry that will support that fight. One threat that Europe needs to consider is the reliability of the US as an ally.
The US did something that was inconceivable in 1945: made a nation of pacifists out of Germany and Japan; now the US have to deal with that.
Dear Don, thank you!
I would like to comment about offer on Transnistria. Some not very intelligent people commented here and there they do not see how is that coal for free, if it is in exchange for electricity, or that this is barter transaction.
This is not a barter, because with barter you have to expend something to produce something that you will then exchange for some other products.
In this case Ukraine in effect offers a lease of their power plant, and for this lease transaction Ukraine will pay with all the heat and electricity they need for their use. So this is basically for free for Transnistria. Because they are renting out a plant that they can not use otherwise.
It would be a win for all parties involved but only if Transnistria's main goal is to provide electricity for their citizens and industries.
If they have sheep maybe they can make blankets.
From CZ:
Our media reported that Robert Fico (SK, prime minister, pro Russian), lost majority in parliament this weekend .
I support all progress towards sanity.
which in this case seems to have happened due to insanity: Fico kicked "inloyal" coalition members out of coalition, and voilà, lost the majority.
Over the past six months, 93 Ukrainian companies, despite the legal ban, got rid of the "Russian footprint" and continue to do business in Ukraine. Some of them even win state tenders. In general, at the beginning of the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation in more than 18,000 companies in Ukraine had a Russian owner. By May 2024, 621 such businesses have lost their Russian owners. In the second half of last year – another 93. The largest number of companies that got rid of the Russian footprint are registered in Kyiv - 47 or 50.5%. Odeshchyna follows – 8 (8.6%), followed by Poltava – 5 (5.4%). It is noted that 19.4% of such companies are engaged in wholesale trade. Another 12.9% specialize in real estate transactions, and 9.7% in construction.
https://mbiz.censor.net/news/3532456/mayije-100-ukrayinskyh-kompaniyi-fiktyvno-pozbulysya-rosiyiskyh-vlasnykiv-za-piv-roku
How the Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada created a deliberate error in the law, poured taxpayers' money into Mykhailo Fridman's Alfa-Bank so that it could not be nationalized by law. Friedman took the capital abroad, changed the name of the business by disguising it and formally gave it to his underlings under management.
• So, during a year of full-scale war, Ukraine did not take a systemically important bank from Russian oligarchs, despite the government's promises.
•The law on nationalization, already adopted during martial law, was written with such a "mistake" that made the nationalization of "Alfa Bank" ("Sens Bank") impossible from the very beginning.
•Four months have already passed (at the time of writing the article) - but this "error" has still not been corrected. Meanwhile, the law enforcement officers search, arrest and transfer the bank in parts to ARMA, which still cannot find a temporary manager of these shares.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.radiosvoboda.org/amp/skemy-alfa-bank-natsionalizatsiya/32290389.html
"Everyone in the Pentagon that was working on support for Ukraine was fired, suspended or reassigned. In logic that only makes sense to Trump, he said that Putin shouldn’t have invaded and Zelensky shares the blame for the invasion because he decided to fight the Russian attack instead of making a deal. He also said that if Russia does not agree to negotiate he will impose massive tariffs, massive taxes and big sanctions, but he doesn’t want to do it because he loves Russia."
******************************************************************************************
Trump, the transactional President!
My take on Trump in his 2nd term of office, thus far:
Trump is a cross between a toxic narcissist & Daffy Duck.
We are in for a wild ride for however long he lasts in office. Better start looking closely at J. D. Vance and what he really might be like as President just in case.
So true. What we have here is a clash of fantasy worlds, Trump's maga and Putin's new Russian empire. Daffy Duck vs. Wily Coyote.
Better to see what Trump does instead of trying to decode what he says.
Else, we're going to get hopelessly confused.