Don's Weekly, 27 January 2025: Part 3

by Donald Hill

(…continued from Part 2…)

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Diplomacy

Everyone in the Pentagon that was working on support for Ukraine was fired, suspended or reassigned. In logic that only makes sense to Trump, he said that Putin shouldn’t have invaded and Zelensky shares the blame for the invasion because he decided to fight the Russian attack instead of making a deal. He also said that if Russia does not agree to negotiate he will impose massive tariffs, massive taxes and big sanctions, but he doesn’t want to do it because he loves Russia.

Trump’s promise to end the three-day special operation in one day has been extended to 100 days. So far, Russia isn’t interested in talking to Kellogg, Trump’s special envoy to Ukraine. One part of Kellogg’s strategy is to work with OPEC to reduce oil prices to $45 per barrel. Current oil prices are $78/barrel and sanctions limit Russian sales to $60/barrel. “One way to stop it quickly is for OPEC to stop making so much money," Trump told reporters. “So, OPEC ought to get on the ball and drop the price of oil. And that war will stop right away.” Just last month, OPEC decided not to increase production because the supply is greater than the demand and they didn’t want to suppress prices. They currently plan to increase production in April. Saudi Arabia needs money to build a $500 billion futuristic city in the desert. In terms of transactional diplomacy, a phone call between Trump and the Saudi crown prince resulted in an announcement of a $600 billion Saudi investment in the US over the next four years. Trump wants them to increase the investment to $1 trillion.

$45/barrel prices would also impact US operations. The US is already producing more oil than any country ever has and this administration wants to increase production even as they’re asking Saudi Arabia to reduce their production. Opening a new oil field is more expensive than operating existing oil fields and the break-even price of new US oil fields range from $59-70 per barrel. The break-even price on operating existing oil fields ranges from $31-45 per barrel. Convincing both OPEC and US producers to lower oil prices to $45 per barrel is simply an unattainable goal set by ignorant people.

Trump plans to talk with Putin, which would end three years of isolation since Macron disengaged in the spring of 2022. Putin says he welcomes direct contact, even as Trump provided his harshest criticism of Putin by saying Putin is destroying Russia.

US aid to all countries, including Ukraine, was suspended for 90 days pending a review. Israel and Egypt were the only nations granted a waiver to this suspension.

Syria terminated a 49-year contract with Russia to modernize the port of Tartus. All revenues from the port will now be collected by Syria. A Russian cargo ship was allowed to dock to remove equipment.

When there was a significant Russian military presence in Syria, Isreali support for Ukraine was minimal. With Russia’s withdrawal, Isreal’s remaining regional opponent is Iran, which is also sending drones to Russia. Last week, Isreal’s Deputy Foreign Minister proposed transferring Russian weapons they seized in Lebanon to Ukraine.

Fico has a small majority in the Slovakian parliament. He is now using their intelligence service to claim the opposition is planning a coup. The evidence he uses is a group that announced plans for non-violent protests and blockades to make sure the law and democratic principles are followed, that cooperation with Russia is rejected and support for Ukraine is given, and that the country remains pro-European.

On January 1st, Russia halted gas supplies to Transnistria, Moldova’s separatist region, because it claimed that Moldova owes $709 million. An international audit showed Moldova owed only $8.6 million. As a means of keeping Transnistria under Russian control, the separatist region received over $10 billion worth of gas for free over the years. Moldova offered to help Transnistria to buy gas from Europe but this offer was rejected. Ukraine offered to send coal to Moldova’s largest power station that is located in Transnistria. It can generate up to 220 megawatts but Ukraine says they can increase the output to 2 gigawatts. For providing the coal, Moldova, Transnistria and Ukraine would all receive electricity. Transnistria has not yet accepted that offer. So Transnistria considers themselves independent from Moldova, Russia cut off the gas, Moldova offered to provide them with gas, and now hundreds of protestors in three cities are demanding that Moldova provide gas and end the genocide of Transnistrians.

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Equipment

To address air defense system shortages, Ukraine and its allies created FrankenSAM systems by mixing different missiles, launch components and programing. This effort worked so well that the US is creating FrankenSAM systems for its own defense. This policy change will result in cheaper and more agile air defense protection. Along those lines, Ukraine needs more long-ranged air defense missiles and launch systems that can intercept ballistic missiles. They have been relying on Patriot systems and missiles, both of which are in short supply and very expensive. Ukraine is working on their own domestic system that they hope will fill their needs at lower costs.

The US had plenty of artillery ammo for Afghanistan, and their defense industries had no problems keeping up with demand. But, depending on the particular time period, the artillery fired by Ukraine in just one day equals a month or more of the artillery fired in Afghanistan. With the fall of the Soviet Union, US defense production was reduced to meet the lower demands. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine made it clear that the US had neither the stores nor the production to adequately supply a long-term near-peer conflict. This has implications not just for Ukraine and Russia but for China, as well.

The US went through this during the Korean war already. They had enough 155 mm shells, but 2/3 of their artillery was 105 mm howitzers and those shells were rationed for almost two years before production was increased to the point where they could fire at the levels they used in WW2. It was one factor that contributed to a ceasefire.

The US and the EU, especially Germany, is ramping up production of artillery shells but barrel wear is an issue for both Russia and Ukraine’s allies. Allied barrels lasted a lot longer than they expected, but the increase in barrel production has not kept up with demand. New production facilities can be built in 12 to 18 months but they are still considering the decision instead of making it two years ago. Worn barrels reduce the accuracy and range of guns, which makes each round slightly less effective and endangers Ukrainian lives.

Between 1979 and 1993, the US produced 75 M1 tanks per month, but that capacity is now limited to 12 tanks per month. There is up to 3,700 M1 tanks in storage, but when it takes two years to produce a tank the US wants to maintain those reserves for future conflicts, especially since it isn’t the most effective vehicle for Ukraine right now.

(…to be concluded in the Part 4…)