Don's Weekly, 26 May 2025: Part 2

by Donald Hill (with few bits & pieces by Tom Cooper)

(…continued from Part 1…)

***

Komar

After occupying Vilne Pole, Russian forces were hunted by drones and then forced out of the village. A Russian mechanized column that attempted to get there again, was eliminated.

***

Huliaipole

There are bombardments on the railroad west of Dorozhnianka a couple times, Chervone, Malynivka, Zatyshshia and Huliaipole. Intense bombardments over a wide sector are sometimes an indicator of pending offensive action.

***

Zaporizhzhia

A Ukrainian position 3km east of Shcherbaky, is hit by rockets.

30 km from the front lines, fuel cars in a Russian train were hit by drones.

The 412th Nemesis UAV Regiment was hunting at night and found a tank, an increasingly rare target. The leader of the command post said when he first arrived in this sector, it seemed that they were destroying an air defense unit every other day. Now most of the targets are ‘infantry’. Tanks became exceptionally rare, so they scrambled to send a bomber drone after it, although 20 km away from their position. While the bomber drone was still five minutes away, the reconnaissance drone saw the tank lit by a bright light. A front line infantry unit hit it with an FPV drone and now the Russian tank retreated at full speed. If the 412th’s drone pursued it, it might not have enough power to make a return trip. After a couple of minutes, it was clear that the tank was out of range and the drone turned around with only 20% power left. The hunt for a new target begins.

Two different incidents of Russians executing Ukrainian prisoners, the one from last November is accompanied by radio intercepts. As of May 5th, there were 75 investigations into the executions of 268 POWs are underway.

The rate of executions is increasing:

• ‘only’ 8 cases became known in 2022, involving 57 soldiers;

• 8 cases became known in 2023 involving 11 soldiers;

• but 39 cases became known in 2024, involving 149 Ukrainians; and,

• 20 cases so far in 2025 involving 51 soldiers.

***

Crimea

An ammo dump, and four buildings in Perevalnoe.

***

Black Sea

Naval and aerial drones hit a radar, storage facilities and a living quarters on a gas drilling platform.

***

Russian Artillery Survival

Ukrainians are finding it more difficult to destroy self-propelled guns when they are dug in and even their barrels are protected. Multiple drones can be expended just to damage the gun. Some units stopped trying to destroy them and used incendiary devices to damage them. The 414th would fly drones into the barrels to punch holes into them.

In some sectors, Russia sends infantry to dig a hole big enough for a tank, towed artillery or self-propelled gun to enter. When the chassis of the vehicle is in the pit, the barrel is placed on the ground and they bury it with branches, trees and nets, making it very difficult to be seen or damage if detected. It can take up to 15 drones to destroy a protected tank or drone, and in between drone flights branches and camouflage bury the target again. An EW jammer is present and nearby infantry fire at any drones that approach.

The infantry brings the shells one at a time and locates them in a different hole. When it is time to fire, the barrel will be raised and when the mission is completed it is lowered to the ground again to be buried and camouflaged.

***

Russia

Between May 20-23, over 750 Ukrainian drones travelled up to 800 km to hit Russian targets. On Monday/Tuesday night about 190 drones were launched at various targets, including an electronics plant that Ukraine claims was hit ten times. Russia claimed 127 drones shot down in Bryansk, Oryol, Kursk, Moscow, Vladimir, Ryazan, Belgorod, Tula and Kaluga regions, and over the Black Sea. Internet connections for smart phones were switched off, presumably to reduce the publication of damage.

On Wednesday/Thursday night, more than 200 drones were launched and the main targets were likely the Ryzan oil refinery and Basalt arms factory, both of which were hit multiple times before. Explosions and fire were reported at both locations and the Basalt plant was still burning 24 hours later.

The Ukrainian UAV-onslaught on Russia went on over the weekend, too.

Reports says five drones were shot down near the Ryazan oil refinery and that a Ka-51 helicopter was in the area. Thermal activity was detected at one location inside the refinery and near a rail line outside the facility.

On Thursday/Friday night, 150-200+ drones were launched and one of the largest producers of batteries in Russia that supplies 20 military manufacturers was hit by about a dozen drones. Residents reported ten explosions and flames were seen in the facility but the fires were out by noon (Kyiv time) on Friday and the extent of the damage was not detailed. Russia said drones were spotted over 15 regions, including Moscow and Crimea, and widespread mobile data shutdowns were reported.

This Azot plant in Novomoskovsk was still afire as of Saturday afternoon…

Now, if this might create the impression of ‘Russian integrated air defence system falling apart’: nah, really not. That’s absolutely impossible, you know: especially not because this Ukrainian operation was initiated by yet another process of ‘drilling a corridor’ through the Russian ‘SAM-belt’ around Ukraine, in the process of which a number of Buks - and some Tors - was knocked out.

Instead, lets do it the Pakistan-style: this (Ukrainian) drone was hit by Russian air defenses and crashed in Patriot Park outside Moscow. That, automatically, means that the Russian air defences remain remarkably effective, and Russia is winning…

BTW, a Mi-8 went down 20 km west of Oryol.

…and, Russia is using training aircraft with a low minimal speed (the so-called ‘stall speed’) to shoot down drones. Any similarities to what the Ukrainians are doing in the Dnipro-Zaporizhzhya and in the Odesa regions, is pure coincidence. A distilled accident.

The RS-24 Yars ICBM has been successfully launched in the past but: there were two failures in 2023 (and the failure of the RS-28 Sarmat in 2024). It seems as if there was another RC-24 failure last week. What a surprise then, there are very serious doubts about the functionality of the entire Russia’s ‘nuclear deterrent’: indeed, some are assessing it as ‘functional’ as that of Pakistan. But, that’s unimportant…

Russian ethnic minorities call out the lack of Russian ethnic majority soldiers in their unit.

In September 2022, Japanese automaker Mazda pulled out of Russia and said it does not see any way to restart production in Russia. Two models of Mazda cars are now being sold in Russia with a 3-year or 100,000km-warranty, whichever comes first. Mazda is supplying them mainly from China.

The deputy head of Yanukovych’s administration Andriy Portnov Ukraine fled after the Maidan, practiced law in Austria and returned to Ukraine several times. He was a part-owner of a pro-Russian TV station that was shut down in 2021. In March 2022 it was revealed that his family had real estate in the Moscow region. He left Ukraine for good in June. Just after dropping his two daughters off at a private school in Spain he was shot five times. Speculation about the assassins ranged from Ukrainian intelligence to Russian business rivals.

In an entirely new development - because something of that kind has never-ever happened before, you know - Russia is sending spies to live in other countries for years to present themselves as citizens of those nations before beginning their work. For those not new in this business, such are then named ‘sleepers’: they’re doing nothing for years, then ‘activated’ when opportune. In April 2022, a Russian agent travelled from Brazil to the Netherlands on a Brazilian passport to become an intern in the International Criminal Court. Based on information from the CIA, he was refused entry. The Brazilians kept him under surveillance until they could arrest him for fraudulent documents, but with a legitimate passport, voter registration card and a compulsory military service certificate.

Even that was difficult to prove. His birth certificate led to his supposed mother, who died years earlier, but her relatives said she never had any children. This began a search that unearthed other spies that all managed to escape, some only hours before an arrest. The false intern was the only one arrested and was sentenced to 15 years for falsifying documents before his sentence was reduced to five years. Information on the others were sent to Interpol but not for espionage, which is considered a political crime, but for falsifying documents.

Pudding’s Ivanka and Ivan Bondskiys: six of the nine known Russian spies in Brazil. One had….nah, no ironed jeans, but a slight accent, which he explained away by saying he spent a lot of time as a child growing up in, guess where? Austria.

***

Ukraine

Prior to Putin’s call with Trump, Russia launched the latest largest drone attack ever. (267 were launched on 23 February). 273 drones were launched in an attack last week. 128 were diverted by EW and 88 were intercepted. The remaining 57 killed one person and injured three. On May 23-24, Russia launched 250 drones and 14 missiles. Ukraine shot down six ballistic missiles and 128 drones and jammed 117 more drones, and much of the attack was focused on Kyiv. Six people were injured. The attacks happened soon after a prisoner swap of 390 soldiers, the first in a planned exchange of 1000 prisoners. 307 and 303 additional prisoners were exchanged in the next two days.

Then on May 24/25, Ukraine said Russia sent 298 drones and 69 missiles. Ukraine said it shot down 45 cruise missiles and 266 drones, meaning 38 drones and 24 cruise and ballistic missiles were not intercepted. Initial reports say that 12 were killed, including three children and more than 70 were injured. At least 80 residential buildings were damaged.

There have been a couple of incidents when Ukraine gathered troops within ~40 km of the front lines, the gatherings were detected and quickly hit with a missile. It happened again in Shostka, Sumy, at a training facility. Six were killed and ten injured. The commander of the unit was suspended and another investigation is underway .

The 155th Brigade continues to have problems, this time with the command staff accused of stealing state funds and their soldier’s salaries.

The UN verified that 476 Ukrainian cultural sites (cathedrals, museums, monuments and libraries) have been damaged with Ukraine documented over 1,200 sites, some of which were destroyed. Two million artifacts were evacuated ahead of Russian advances or in range of bombardment. 10,000 artifacts were looted from the Kherson art museum alone. Ukrainian art historians and museum directors are doing everything they can to retrieve stolen works and protect what remains.

***

(…to be continued…)