Thanks for your effort. What are the biggest problems of RU air defence? Not enough systems, not enough munition, technical quality of systems or people in lead?
And another. Russia should have hundred's of old systems, Strela, OSA... with many munitions. Are this system used and how effective they are.
And i somewhere read that pantsir have quite low effectivity( In Syria it should be near 20%).
It's the size of the area they have to defend (and the number of objects), a growing lack of trained personnel, and the - perpetual - software-integration troubles. Essentially, whenever a major element of their IADS is knocked out (say: a Buk SAM-site taken off-line because it was hit by Ukrainians), the system has to be re-booted. And that's taking time...
Old systems are mostly irrepairable. That said, stuff like SA-13s is still in widespread use.
Thanks for info. These system are quite old and new drones are smaller as planes and probably also materials are more stealth so question is if they are able to detect and navigate to target.
With personal and comunications it seems quite big problem, because firing on big civil plane instead of drones...
Isn’t it ironic that what so many times have been beneficial to Russia, namely its size, now is detrimental? Wonder whether a song could be made of this… nah…
>> If the 412th’s drone pursued it, it might not have enough power to make a return trip. After a couple of minutes, it was clear that the tank was out of range and the drone turned around with only 20% power left. The hunt for a new target begins.
Ukrainian drone operators mentioned a couple of times that it takes an average of five FPV drones to kill a tank. I haven't seen kill estimates from dropped munitions but it seems that they decided the chance of damaging or destroying the tank wasn't worth the sacrifice of the drone.
"On May 23-24, Russia launched 250 drones and 14 missiles. Ukraine shot down six ballistic missiles and 128 drones and jammed 117 more drones, and much of the attack was focused on Kyiv. Then on May 24/25, Ukraine said Russia sent 298 drones and 69 missiles."
A very modest desription of the attacks that shattered UA defence industry and PSU.
Only Antonov factory in Kiev took around 20 strikes of Gerans. Many other drones production factories were hit as well as a number of airfields. Patriot battery in Kiev was shooting in Saudi MLRS style to unknown gain:
This is classic Telegram-grade war porn: dramatic claims, pixelated videos, zero verification.
"Antonov took 20 Gerans" — according to who? A blurry video of a fire at night isn’t evidence of 20 successful strikes, let alone a strategic knockout. Show satellite confirmation, structural damage reports, anything real — not shaky footage from 300 meters away.
"Factories destroyed" — which ones? Names, locations, verifiable damage? Or just repeating whatever Geranium Chronicles posted today?
The alleged hit on a second Patriot system comes from a video so pixelated it looks like a 2003 phone recording. No blast crater, no wreckage, just text on screen telling you what to believe.
Юра, I know you are pressed to post this otherwise you will be send to the front. Contrary to the uneducated peasant "Commenter" you are trying well, so I will reply:
1) Hits in Antonov factory, here is the video of confirmed hits:
Ah, the classic "you must be forced to write this" opener — as if every person who disagrees with your Telegram-fueled fantasies must be chained to a radiator with an FSB colonel breathing down their neck. Hate to break it to you, but some of us just aren't buying propaganda dressed up as fan fiction.
You’d think with all those “devastating blows” and “destroyed factories” your side keeps claiming, something would’ve collapsed by now… other than your credibility.
Antonov factory “confirmed hits” — via what? Blurry fireballs at night from a shaky phone camera? If that’s confirmation, then every warehouse fire in Moscow is an act of divine retribution. Satellite thermal anomalies ≠ missile strike evidence. That’s basic logic — unless, of course, logic is now considered NATO propaganda.
LostArmour — a self-referential echo chamber where anonymous volunteers make claims based on shadows and scorched paint. It’s like Reddit LARPing, but with more serious faces and less fact-checking. Do they publish war poems too? Because the fiction is top-tier.
“Secondary explosions = Patriot battery destroyed” — hilarious. So now, a few booms in a low-res clip equal confirmation of a billion-dollar system being vaporized? Where’s the wreckage? Where’s the post-strike geolocation? Or do you expect us to take it on faith, like a religious experience?
Bottom line: you’re not reporting facts, you’re performing a ritual — chanting your favorite buzzwords and praying the smoke turns into victory. But smoke is still just smoke — no matter how many times you call it "strategic success."
I have no evidence to prove or disprove the claim that MI assets were hit. But I will say that in general, damaging Ukraine's military-industrial complex and ability to fight is bad for everyone, including Russia. The more Russia does this, the more other nations will be drawn deeper into the fight, in dangerous and unpredictable ways. It is in Russia's best interest to withdraw immediately from Ukraine, but if it will not do that then it ought to be rendered unable to advance strategically. The worst outcome, is if it starts to win in Ukraine. Worst for Russia and very much worst for everyone else, especially the rest of Europe. This assumes, of course, that Europe will not leave Ukraine to die. I hope not. We have historical precedent for this happening and also for it not happening.
"The deputy head of Yanukovych’s administration Andriy Portnov Ukraine fled after the Maidan, practiced law in Austria and returned to Ukraine several times. Just after dropping his two daughters off at a private school in Spain he was shot five times."
The guy was on a private visit to Kiev a few days before assasination and met high-ranked officials. The word is that he was blackmailing Zelensky and his cronies with unpleasant facts from the past and was "neutralized".
USAID financing to UA propaganda institutions was frozen but Tsipso trolls are still here....let me guess..."Commenter" and similar bots are ready to work for free just to evade the frontline and ТЦК "headhunters". Usually they are classical raguls with minimum education, just enough to post low-level BS and swearings.
Thanks, Tom, thanks Don. In the Ukrainian media, you can sometimes see indicators of the effectiveness of the Petriots. If on the night of May 23/24 they shot down 6 out of 14 Iskanders (of the 9 launched at Kyiv, they shot down 6), then on the night of May 24/25, out of 9 Iskanders (including 2 at Kyiv), they did not shoot down a single one. Since there were no reports of characteristic destruction or casualties, presumably the missiles that were not shot down hit military and industrial facilities, or fell somewhere along the route. They explain this either by the exhaustion of missiles for the Petriots, or by the installation of traps on the Iskanders that go off at the final section of the trajectory. There haven’t been any missiles for the SAMP-T for a long time, and they haven’t been tested against ballistic missiles.
Dang it. I hope Ukraine finds the time and resources to develop anti Shahed autonomous drones. They have the skills and ability to do it. Other nations can and must help with the anti ballistics. Come on Ukraine supporters!
I know this is the Sarcastosaur blog and sarcasm is to be expected. Usually I manage to detect it. (Or I remain blissfully ignorant) But this time you wrote: «Now, if this might create the impression of ‘Russian integrated air defence system falling apart’: nah, really not. That’s absolutely impossible, you know: especially not because this Ukrainian operation was initiated by yet another process of ‘drilling a corridor’ through the Russian ‘SAM-belt’ around Ukraine, in the process of which a number of Buks - and some Tors - was knocked out.
Instead, lets do it the Pakistan-style: this (Ukrainian) drone was hit by Russian air defenses and crashed in Patriot Park outside Moscow. That, automatically, means that the Russian air defences remain remarkably effective, and Russia is winning» Ok, first I thought you were sarcastic… the I began to doubt… then again believe you are… ok. I think you mean that Ukraine is continuing to break down Russias IADF, and at least achieving partly success. But of course not complete success, and if it is possible it will take some time. But am I right? Have I understood?
"Internet connections for smart phones were switched off, presumably to reduce the publication of damage."
Or maybe to disable 'signal-of-opportunity' navigation, see https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/whats-guiding-ukraines-deep-strikes ?
Thanks for your effort. What are the biggest problems of RU air defence? Not enough systems, not enough munition, technical quality of systems or people in lead?
And another. Russia should have hundred's of old systems, Strela, OSA... with many munitions. Are this system used and how effective they are.
And i somewhere read that pantsir have quite low effectivity( In Syria it should be near 20%).
It's the size of the area they have to defend (and the number of objects), a growing lack of trained personnel, and the - perpetual - software-integration troubles. Essentially, whenever a major element of their IADS is knocked out (say: a Buk SAM-site taken off-line because it was hit by Ukrainians), the system has to be re-booted. And that's taking time...
Old systems are mostly irrepairable. That said, stuff like SA-13s is still in widespread use.
30 Osa's, 55 Strela-10's and 11 9K330 (older) Tor's have been destroyed.
Thanks for info. These system are quite old and new drones are smaller as planes and probably also materials are more stealth so question is if they are able to detect and navigate to target.
With personal and comunications it seems quite big problem, because firing on big civil plane instead of drones...
Isn’t it ironic that what so many times have been beneficial to Russia, namely its size, now is detrimental? Wonder whether a song could be made of this… nah…
>> If the 412th’s drone pursued it, it might not have enough power to make a return trip. After a couple of minutes, it was clear that the tank was out of range and the drone turned around with only 20% power left. The hunt for a new target begins.
- Is a drone more expensive than a tank?
I detect a rhetorical question.
Ukrainian drone operators mentioned a couple of times that it takes an average of five FPV drones to kill a tank. I haven't seen kill estimates from dropped munitions but it seems that they decided the chance of damaging or destroying the tank wasn't worth the sacrifice of the drone.
"On May 23-24, Russia launched 250 drones and 14 missiles. Ukraine shot down six ballistic missiles and 128 drones and jammed 117 more drones, and much of the attack was focused on Kyiv. Then on May 24/25, Ukraine said Russia sent 298 drones and 69 missiles."
A very modest desription of the attacks that shattered UA defence industry and PSU.
Only Antonov factory in Kiev took around 20 strikes of Gerans. Many other drones production factories were hit as well as a number of airfields. Patriot battery in Kiev was shooting in Saudi MLRS style to unknown gain:
https://t.me/geranium_chronicles/22865?single
https://t.me/geranium_chronicles/22866?single
BTW, another Patriot battery was successfuly hit by Iskander several days ago in Dnepropetrovsk region:
https://t.me/boris_rozhin/165577
Your mother had a child to unknown gain.
This is classic Telegram-grade war porn: dramatic claims, pixelated videos, zero verification.
"Antonov took 20 Gerans" — according to who? A blurry video of a fire at night isn’t evidence of 20 successful strikes, let alone a strategic knockout. Show satellite confirmation, structural damage reports, anything real — not shaky footage from 300 meters away.
"Factories destroyed" — which ones? Names, locations, verifiable damage? Or just repeating whatever Geranium Chronicles posted today?
The alleged hit on a second Patriot system comes from a video so pixelated it looks like a 2003 phone recording. No blast crater, no wreckage, just text on screen telling you what to believe.
Юра, I know you are pressed to post this otherwise you will be send to the front. Contrary to the uneducated peasant "Commenter" you are trying well, so I will reply:
1) Hits in Antonov factory, here is the video of confirmed hits:
https://dzen.ru/video/watch/6831c43a0b9b3403c0b51d14
Also, check NASA photos for fires
2) As usual, I advice to check LostArmour, they have thorough descriptions, like this one, check recent strikes on numerous targets:
https://lostarmour.info/svo#remark42__comment-6ce6507d-3784-457b-9afe-0102f92cfb5a
3) Regarding hit on Patriot battery: secondary explosions are perfectly visible.
Ah, the classic "you must be forced to write this" opener — as if every person who disagrees with your Telegram-fueled fantasies must be chained to a radiator with an FSB colonel breathing down their neck. Hate to break it to you, but some of us just aren't buying propaganda dressed up as fan fiction.
You’d think with all those “devastating blows” and “destroyed factories” your side keeps claiming, something would’ve collapsed by now… other than your credibility.
Antonov factory “confirmed hits” — via what? Blurry fireballs at night from a shaky phone camera? If that’s confirmation, then every warehouse fire in Moscow is an act of divine retribution. Satellite thermal anomalies ≠ missile strike evidence. That’s basic logic — unless, of course, logic is now considered NATO propaganda.
LostArmour — a self-referential echo chamber where anonymous volunteers make claims based on shadows and scorched paint. It’s like Reddit LARPing, but with more serious faces and less fact-checking. Do they publish war poems too? Because the fiction is top-tier.
“Secondary explosions = Patriot battery destroyed” — hilarious. So now, a few booms in a low-res clip equal confirmation of a billion-dollar system being vaporized? Where’s the wreckage? Where’s the post-strike geolocation? Or do you expect us to take it on faith, like a religious experience?
Bottom line: you’re not reporting facts, you’re performing a ritual — chanting your favorite buzzwords and praying the smoke turns into victory. But smoke is still just smoke — no matter how many times you call it "strategic success."
I have no evidence to prove or disprove the claim that MI assets were hit. But I will say that in general, damaging Ukraine's military-industrial complex and ability to fight is bad for everyone, including Russia. The more Russia does this, the more other nations will be drawn deeper into the fight, in dangerous and unpredictable ways. It is in Russia's best interest to withdraw immediately from Ukraine, but if it will not do that then it ought to be rendered unable to advance strategically. The worst outcome, is if it starts to win in Ukraine. Worst for Russia and very much worst for everyone else, especially the rest of Europe. This assumes, of course, that Europe will not leave Ukraine to die. I hope not. We have historical precedent for this happening and also for it not happening.
"The deputy head of Yanukovych’s administration Andriy Portnov Ukraine fled after the Maidan, practiced law in Austria and returned to Ukraine several times. Just after dropping his two daughters off at a private school in Spain he was shot five times."
The guy was on a private visit to Kiev a few days before assasination and met high-ranked officials. The word is that he was blackmailing Zelensky and his cronies with unpleasant facts from the past and was "neutralized".
Solid reporting. The word is your mother is a whore.
USAID financing to UA propaganda institutions was frozen but Tsipso trolls are still here....let me guess..."Commenter" and similar bots are ready to work for free just to evade the frontline and ТЦК "headhunters". Usually they are classical raguls with minimum education, just enough to post low-level BS and swearings.
you're a master at this.
Impressive. How can one throw out so many guesses and miss with each and every single one of them. Your analysis is reliably 0% correct.
I find it interesting that not much is reported about attacks on Russian oil refineries these days...
What has happened recently in that regard?
Exactly that.
I don't think that Ukraine is targeting these at the moment, and I wonder why
Thanks, Tom, thanks Don. In the Ukrainian media, you can sometimes see indicators of the effectiveness of the Petriots. If on the night of May 23/24 they shot down 6 out of 14 Iskanders (of the 9 launched at Kyiv, they shot down 6), then on the night of May 24/25, out of 9 Iskanders (including 2 at Kyiv), they did not shoot down a single one. Since there were no reports of characteristic destruction or casualties, presumably the missiles that were not shot down hit military and industrial facilities, or fell somewhere along the route. They explain this either by the exhaustion of missiles for the Petriots, or by the installation of traps on the Iskanders that go off at the final section of the trajectory. There haven’t been any missiles for the SAMP-T for a long time, and they haven’t been tested against ballistic missiles.
Dang it. I hope Ukraine finds the time and resources to develop anti Shahed autonomous drones. They have the skills and ability to do it. Other nations can and must help with the anti ballistics. Come on Ukraine supporters!
I know this is the Sarcastosaur blog and sarcasm is to be expected. Usually I manage to detect it. (Or I remain blissfully ignorant) But this time you wrote: «Now, if this might create the impression of ‘Russian integrated air defence system falling apart’: nah, really not. That’s absolutely impossible, you know: especially not because this Ukrainian operation was initiated by yet another process of ‘drilling a corridor’ through the Russian ‘SAM-belt’ around Ukraine, in the process of which a number of Buks - and some Tors - was knocked out.
Instead, lets do it the Pakistan-style: this (Ukrainian) drone was hit by Russian air defenses and crashed in Patriot Park outside Moscow. That, automatically, means that the Russian air defences remain remarkably effective, and Russia is winning» Ok, first I thought you were sarcastic… the I began to doubt… then again believe you are… ok. I think you mean that Ukraine is continuing to break down Russias IADF, and at least achieving partly success. But of course not complete success, and if it is possible it will take some time. But am I right? Have I understood?
I think you understood correctly, they continue to drill thru Russian defenses.