1. "...if the Kerch bridge ever collapsed into the water..." - not "if", but "when". As the war goes on the destruction of the Bridge seems inevitable.
2. "The war won't be won on the Black Sea" - it's a moot point. The key military goal of this war was to legitimize the annexation of the Crimea peninsula and to secure the land passage to mainland Russia through Mariupol. Should the Crimea be lost there would be no reasons for Moscow to fight on - just like that was the case at the end of the Crimean war in 1856.
3. "It's leadership, from the squad to brigade level, has developed a fighting style that is very effective in the terrain surrounding Bakhmut" - it should be added that this "style' was invented by Wagner field commanders.
None at all. This was a pro-Russian source and I refrain from posting many of them because they have a much greater chance of being intentionally wrong. I wish I could show more of the Ukrainian set backs just to provide a balanced viewpoint but pro-Ukrainian sites usually don't show Ukrainian setbacks and pro-Russian sites lie/exaggerate a lot.
Given that the MiG-29 was so close to the front and with seemingly few protective measures, it's possible that this was a non-functioning MiG acting as a decoy. Or not.
One thing to consider with the pro-Ukrainian channels, too, is that they tend to show mostly positive outcomes and while they may not be trying to be deceptive, we know that Russia has been hitting Ukrainian decoys and it's possible Ukraine could be hitting Russian decoys. Sometimes you just can't tell if the equipment is real. (Other times are obvious).
Any idea just how Russia is training its "mobiks?"
I understand formerly new recruits were largely trained in their own units. But in the chaotic conditions you describe that seems unlikely. I've also heard of basic training in Russia itself, prior to deployment.
The point is: unless the mobiks are getting info about the state of the art tactics using drones, IR, starlight scopes etc, they may be ill-prepared for the battles they will face.
Afghan vets in Vladivostok won't make anyone ready for the kind of battle the average mobik will face.
Russia cannibalized their pre-war training staff over a year ago and sent them to Ukraine. I haven't found any details on what they've put in place since then. I read a post from Izvestia that Russia is coming up with new formations and tactics based on their experiences in Ukraine. I believe that's just PRBS.
The 25th CAA wasn't supposed to be done with training until December, but the loss of Russian units forced them to be committed before they received all their personnel or equipment.
I don't know if they re-established a permanent training cadre or if mobilized soldiers are being trained by the leadership in the unit to which they're assigned. In any case, I don't think they're going to produce the level of training that the airborne, marines or Spetsnaz had. These troops are vanishing through combat and without them Russia's ability to conduct counter-attacks will diminish.
Thanks! That seemed the most likely scenario. As someone who was the third person to join what eventually became an entire tank battalion, I've seen how new units are formed. And it takes many months of hard work even in peacetime. Neither Putin nor Enough really understand that.
I was reading about a new brigade assigned to the Svatove area. They said they encountered situations that were never covered in training and eventually figured out the best way to deal with them but not after lives were lost. That's understandable. I was wondering if it would help to provide veteran mentors to new units to provide advice on little things, such as protecting yourselves from observation from enemy drones.
What do you think would be most useful for new units being assigned to the zero line for the first time?
Vets from the front should be running short courses for the newbies (and westerners as well) on what to expect at the front.
This is a radical change in the conduct of war--but one that still follows old principals. The expertise of vet fighters is an important leg up for Ukraine. the more the knowledge is spread, the quicker this war will end.
I have been following Tom since the second beginning of the war in Feb 22. His work is amazing. However, I did not actually subscribe until today. Your excellent write up on force multipliers and how they pertain to the current state of affairs compelled me to comment. Huzzah! Echt erstklassig und gut gemacht!
1. "...if the Kerch bridge ever collapsed into the water..." - not "if", but "when". As the war goes on the destruction of the Bridge seems inevitable.
2. "The war won't be won on the Black Sea" - it's a moot point. The key military goal of this war was to legitimize the annexation of the Crimea peninsula and to secure the land passage to mainland Russia through Mariupol. Should the Crimea be lost there would be no reasons for Moscow to fight on - just like that was the case at the end of the Crimean war in 1856.
3. "It's leadership, from the squad to brigade level, has developed a fighting style that is very effective in the terrain surrounding Bakhmut" - it should be added that this "style' was invented by Wagner field commanders.
1. I always liked the German "wenn" for these cases. I do believe the bridge will fall.
2. If Putin is still in charge Russia will keep fighting even if they lose Crimea.
3. Or maybe similar infantry tactics have been around for decades. My point was that what the 3rd brigade is doing is very effective.
Is there confirmation about the destroyed 5 fighters. From the video provided we could see only 1 mig-29 being hit
I think Don is confusing Mig and Suchoj.
We haven`t see any evidence about destroying any plane.
Btw video from on mig attack is very strange....see attack angle (from 7-8 hour) and last sequence...drone is coming from 5 hour.
None at all. This was a pro-Russian source and I refrain from posting many of them because they have a much greater chance of being intentionally wrong. I wish I could show more of the Ukrainian set backs just to provide a balanced viewpoint but pro-Ukrainian sites usually don't show Ukrainian setbacks and pro-Russian sites lie/exaggerate a lot.
Given that the MiG-29 was so close to the front and with seemingly few protective measures, it's possible that this was a non-functioning MiG acting as a decoy. Or not.
One thing to consider with the pro-Ukrainian channels, too, is that they tend to show mostly positive outcomes and while they may not be trying to be deceptive, we know that Russia has been hitting Ukrainian decoys and it's possible Ukraine could be hitting Russian decoys. Sometimes you just can't tell if the equipment is real. (Other times are obvious).
Question:
Any idea just how Russia is training its "mobiks?"
I understand formerly new recruits were largely trained in their own units. But in the chaotic conditions you describe that seems unlikely. I've also heard of basic training in Russia itself, prior to deployment.
The point is: unless the mobiks are getting info about the state of the art tactics using drones, IR, starlight scopes etc, they may be ill-prepared for the battles they will face.
Afghan vets in Vladivostok won't make anyone ready for the kind of battle the average mobik will face.
Russia cannibalized their pre-war training staff over a year ago and sent them to Ukraine. I haven't found any details on what they've put in place since then. I read a post from Izvestia that Russia is coming up with new formations and tactics based on their experiences in Ukraine. I believe that's just PRBS.
The 25th CAA wasn't supposed to be done with training until December, but the loss of Russian units forced them to be committed before they received all their personnel or equipment.
I don't know if they re-established a permanent training cadre or if mobilized soldiers are being trained by the leadership in the unit to which they're assigned. In any case, I don't think they're going to produce the level of training that the airborne, marines or Spetsnaz had. These troops are vanishing through combat and without them Russia's ability to conduct counter-attacks will diminish.
Thanks! That seemed the most likely scenario. As someone who was the third person to join what eventually became an entire tank battalion, I've seen how new units are formed. And it takes many months of hard work even in peacetime. Neither Putin nor Enough really understand that.
I was reading about a new brigade assigned to the Svatove area. They said they encountered situations that were never covered in training and eventually figured out the best way to deal with them but not after lives were lost. That's understandable. I was wondering if it would help to provide veteran mentors to new units to provide advice on little things, such as protecting yourselves from observation from enemy drones.
What do you think would be most useful for new units being assigned to the zero line for the first time?
Good idea!
Vets from the front should be running short courses for the newbies (and westerners as well) on what to expect at the front.
This is a radical change in the conduct of war--but one that still follows old principals. The expertise of vet fighters is an important leg up for Ukraine. the more the knowledge is spread, the quicker this war will end.
I have been following Tom since the second beginning of the war in Feb 22. His work is amazing. However, I did not actually subscribe until today. Your excellent write up on force multipliers and how they pertain to the current state of affairs compelled me to comment. Huzzah! Echt erstklassig und gut gemacht!
Vielen Dank. I'm happy to share whatever it is that I might know. I learn a lot from Tom, as well.