Don's Weekly, 25 September 2023, Part 2

Enerhodar

Ukrainian special operation forces attempted to gain a foothold in Enerhodar. The operation was planned for weeks using information from multiple citizens and collaborating Russians living in and around the town and nearby nuclear facility. Divers had searched the riverbank to determine whether it was mined. The report states that multiple crossings were made and after it was determined that the Russian defenses too strong they withdrew...

https://24tv.ua/biytsi-gur-namagalisya-zdiysniti-visadku-energodari_n2397293

Note: This image is from June 20th. Most of the water that is not part of the river dried up over the summer.

Kherson

There is a report that Ukraine is strengthening their footholds on the left bank but little other news.

A Russian SP 152mm gun is destroyed...

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1704822461726920804

Another boat is sunk...

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1705623327606280414

Crimea/Black Sea

After weeks of attacking Russian air defenses in Crimea, Ukraine launched several days of multi-wave attacks of drones, cruise missiles and a few Neptune missiles converted to ground attacks. During one day, they may have launched as much as 100 drones and several cruise missiles. The mass of attacks overwhelmed Russia's remaining air defenses that shot down many drones, but dozens won through to attack fuel storage facilities, military buildings and equipment and several planes.

They were aided by information from partisans and collaborators. In one particular attack, a alternate headquarters building was attacked earlier, so several leaders decided to convene in a remaining headquarters. Cruise missiles hit them in their half of the building at the time they were scheduled to meet. The commander of the Black Sea fleet was killed. The commander and chief-of-staff of the ground forces around Robotyne were both severely wounded and about 30 casualties have been reported.

Russia is willing to lose manpower to hold a position because it has a lot of it. It's planes and ships are a finite assets, though, and if damaged or destroyed, they will not be repaired or replaced during this war, so they were both removed from the western Crimean peninsula. The amphibious assault ships were sent to the Sea of Azov where they are presumably save from naval drones and could still transport troops and equipment if the Kerch bridge ever collapsed into the water. The three remaining missile-launching subs were moved to Novorossiysk, where a water drone has already made a successful attack. With the only three drydocks in Sevastopol destroyed, any significant damage to Russian ships will not be repaired any time soon.

The war won't be won on the Black Sea but events here will influence the land campaign and right now Russia is retreating in this theater...https://www.kyivpost.com/post/21908

There were aircraft present on Saki airfield and there are unconfirmed reports that several Su-24 and Su-35's were hit. Some hangers were burnt and one building had foam on it. The planes are no longer at the airfield now. Each plane that is lost means more work for the remaining planes and several of the worn-out airframes and engines have crashed in non-combat flights...

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1705113951883723187?s=20

The headquarters of the Russian Black Sea fleet was hit in Sevastopal.  44.6186529, 33.5270923...

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1705284692310737048

During the attack...

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1705200561623068767

The commander of the Black Sea fleet was reportedly killed...

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1705299749811745149

A total of 9 were reported killed. 16 were reported wounded. The commander of Russian forces around Robotyne and his chief of staff were seriously wounded...

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1705347391111524654

...https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-russia-navy-attack-death-toll-claim-missile-strike/

The Black Sea fleet is evacuating Sevastopol...https://www.kyivpost.com/post/21908#:~:text=Sea%20Russia%20Crimea-,Russian%20Navy%20Is%20Bailing%20on%20Sevastopol%2C%20the%20'Permanent'%20Home,%E2%80%9Csafe%20harbor%E2%80%9D%20at%20Crimea.

Saki airfield in Crimea was hit...

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1705113951883723187?s=20

A military unit at Bakhchysarai was attacked...

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1705176893853450378

A military unit in Verkhnesadovoye was hit...

https://twitter.com/FreudGreyskull/status/1704560468847902776

Rockets fly past near Simferopol...

https://twitter.com/FreudGreyskull/status/1704560274240585972

Another attack in Sevastopal again.44.6172941, 33.5889156...

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1705475949951598947

Something in Cape Fiolent was hit...

https://twitter.com/FreudGreyskull/status/1704961299380424902

/photo/1

Budanov said that the patrol ship Sergey Kotov suffered a damaged propeller and a 50 cm x 100 cm hole on its right side after the naval drone attack a couple weeks ago.

A cargo ship carrying cement for Ukraine  was hit by a Russian mine 18 km off the Romanian shore. The captain requested evacuation of all 12 crew after an explosion he believed was caused by a mine. Some of the crew were injured, including one with burns on his right side, but he is not in danger of dying. Officially, authorities are trying to determine what caused the explosion, and, if it was a mine, who launched it, but Russians are the only ones placing mines...https://www.kyivpost.com/post/21823

Russian Live Expectancy in Ukraine

-Mobilized Russian soldiers last an average of 4.5 months in Ukraine before being killed. 20% are dead after eight weeks.

-10% of the Russian soldiers killed were under 25. 50% were between 30 and 45.

-Many mobilized soldiers have been serving 11 months without leave. Commanders fear that if they allow troops leave, half would not return.

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1704892340744212739

Combat Strength and Force Multipliers

Combat power is multiplied when different elements are working together. If you start with the infantry element as the base it has a certain amount of power, which can be represented by a number, let's say "two". Artillery by itself also power, and we can give it a power of, maybe, "four". When they are working together, these elements are multiplied, not added, and they generate a force that can be expressed as "eight", not "six".  There are a lot of other physical elements factored in, such as terrain, logistics, communications, armored vehicles, electronic warfare, and more. And there are intangible elements, too, such as surprise and deception (which can be nullified by reconnaissance and enhanced by camoflage), leadership, morale, level of training, and so much more.

When all these factors are working together you have a military force where its sum is greater than its individual parts. When you start losing some of these elements, you lose their power of force multiplication. Maybe the artillery is destroyed by counter-battery fire or their supply route is interdicted by artillery fire so they have no shells. In that case, the artillery support would be removed from the equation. Maybe the force lost a hill or ridge that allowed it to observe enemy activity for several kilometers. Maybe they lost half their armored vehicles, which would reduce that element's multiplying effect by some fraction (though not necessarily half). If you take the very simple formula of infantry and artillery, and a theoretical situation in which there were zero infantry casualties and the artillery had no ammunition, then its combat power would be reduced from eight to two. The infantry unit could still fight, and many units throughout history have fought under similar circumstances, but it won't be as effective. Given a choice, it would make sense for the infantry unit not to initiate combat until it had artillery support again. If the unsupported infantry chooses to fight, or is forced to fight, it will likely cause fewer casualties and probably suffer more casualties than if they had fought with artillery support.

By most military standards, a unit is cosidered non-functional, or "destroyed", if it suffers 30% casualties. It's not just the infantry that suffered those 30% casualties, it's the leadership, recon teams, logistics and other elements that make it an effective fighting force. Obviously, with 70% of its personnel left, it still exists, but it has lost enough of its elements, its force multipliers, that its combat power might be reduced to 30-50% even though it has 70% of its force remaining. Normally, a unit in this state is withdrawn until replacements re-establish all those elements and the base combat power is enhanced at least to 80-90%, if not 100%. 

Ukraine's 3rd Assault Brigade has proven itself to be an effective fighting force. Many recruits want to join a successful unit so this brigade has more personnel than other brigades. That helps preserve its combat power. I'm not sure of their force committment levels now, but back in May they would only commit one battalion in battle while the other two were nearby manning a defensive line or in the rear resting and refitting. They had very low casualties back then, maybe 4-5 killed in a month, with some unknown number of wounded, so their attrition levels were low. But by having the luxury of committig just 1/3 of their force to active combat and having 2/3 of their force rest or engage in low-intensity defensive missions, the brigade was also preserving its strength by allowing its soldiers to recover from the mental and phsical stress of offensive combat. It had other combat multipliers that other brigades did not. Because of its successes and its very successful videos documenting these successes, it has received a large amount of private donations that funded drones, first aid supplies, night vision devices and other equipment that multiply and preserve it's combat power. It's leadership, from the squad to brigade level, has developed a fighting style that is very effective in the terrain surrounding Bakhmut. Because they have a large number of personnel they can insure each of their new recruits can receive a sufficient level of training before entering battle. Because they suffer so few casualties, each individual soldier is gaining experience, and the small numbers of replacements for these casualties are surrounded by experienced soldiers and squad leaders that show them how to be successful. Months of success has created a culture of confidence and high morale that is a force multiplier in itself.

When Russia (officially) crossed the border 19 months ago, Ukraine had some veteran units that had been fighting since 2014, but it had to rely on dozens of reserve and Territorial Defense units that were missing many combat multipliers, such as training, experience and equipment. Some units had effective leadership, which was a huge multiplier, other units did not, or at least didn't until the leadership gained experience over time and at the cost of casualties. During the spring of 2022, Tom Cooper reported that a lot of Ukrainian soldiers that had never seen combat were quite often a casualty in their first battle. After their fourth or fifth battle they had about a 90% chance to emerge uninjured from each additional encounter.

Because of their lower combat power, the average Territorial Defense unit had difficulties withstanding huge pressures and veteran units, such as the 92nd and 93rd Mechanized and 25th Airborne Brigades were rushed from one critical sector to another as a fire brigade. As soon as one sector was stabilized, usually with a counter-attack, they were rushed to the area in danger. They were effective, but they inevitably lost equipment and personnel, especially because they were fighting in high intensity areas, and immediately after arriving in the danger zone with little to no time to familiarize themselves with the terrain and the habits/cultures of the Russian units opposing them. Their losses were greater than their replacements, and the training levels of the replacements were not the same as the experience levels of the wounded and killed veterans. These units suffered from some diminished combat power, but they were sustained by morale, leadership and other combat multipliers. As time went by, Ukrainian units throughout the army increased their levels of training and experience. Substandard leadership improved with time or was replaced, and the front stabilized. With fewer demands placed on them, the fire brigades were able to re-estabish their combat power with equipment and trained recruits that lived to gain experience over time.

This hasn't been happening in Russian units. They continue to fight with 30, 50, even 70% casualties, and they fight with ever decreasing effectiveness, not just because the battered units have fewer people, but because they are lacking those combat multipliers that make the basic infantryman more effective. We don't have exact numbers, but the Russian 72nd Brigade that was surrounded at Andriivka had a lot of personnel killed or taken prisoners and the survivors had to run through artillery fire. It probably suffered casualties in excess of 90%. Some units, like the Spetsnaz brigades, aren't even mentioned as an organized unit anymore, and their few survivors are deployed as snipers and ATGM teams operating in support of other units. Some shattered units are pulled off the line briefly to receive T-55 tanks and poorly-trained replacements before being placed back on the line. Other mobilized units from last fall have been on the front for 11 months without any leave or time in the rear. All of this degrades their combat power.

Russian units that were once relatively well-trained are suffering casualties at a faster rate than replacement personnel can gain experience. Relatively modern equipment is replaced by old equipment, or not replaced at all. Commanders and staff personnel that take a decade or more to train are lost, and with them, force multipliers are lost. Because of this, a Ukrainian brigade is the equivalent to about three Russian divisions, or roughly nine times the number or Russian personnel. A good example of this is when a lone Ukrainian brigade held out for a week against eight Russian regiments and brigades attacking in mid-July. The brigade suffered heavy casulaties and was pushed back 5 km, but the line held. Then two neighboring brigades arrived and the three of them pushed back the eight Russian brigades with heavy Russian losses. Another example is that while the attacker in an offensive is expected to suffer more casualties than the defender, Russia has been suffering more casualties than Ukraine.

As posted above, a mobilized Russian soldier lives an average of 4.5 months in Ukraine. Last fall there was a general mobilization, and most of those have since been killed or wounded. Each month an average of 20,000 new troops are mobilized. In times of urgent needs, such as the Kharkiv offensives, they are sent to the front without any training. When there is sufficient time, the troops are trained to some degree. The 25th Army wasn't supposed to be deployed until December, but the offensive ground down most of the Russian units there so the 25th was sent to the front without all their personnel and equipment they were scheduled to receive, and without the training that was planned for them.

A lot of Russian paratroopers were sent to the Robotyne sector and they were able to push back the Ukrainians from their unsecured advances up to 3 km in some places. Their advances were stopped and now they're holding the line against intense Ukrainian artillery and assaults. Just like the Spetsnaz and Reconnaissance brigades before them, these paratroopers are losing their combat power and are on the path to an eventual destruction, as well. This will have a bigger impact on the war than if a standard unit is destroyed, several times, even, and filled with mobilized replacements. That's because the standard unit of mobilized soldiers does an adequate job of defending, but it does not attack or counter-attack very well. Previously, standard units would defend and if they retreated, well-trained units from the reserve would counter-attack, regain the position and then turn it back over to a standard unit. When the Russians ran out of troops, these well-trained reserves became the front line units and were unable to sustain their combat power. If Russia loses all of its well-trained units, then it's ability to counter-attack will be diminished no matter how many troops it mobilizes. This means Ukraine's ability to retain a treeline or trench or house will be greater and Ukraine's ability to advance will increase, and the war will evolve into a new phase.

Equipment

A list of Russian aircraft available as of mid-August...

https://twitter.com/PStyle0ne1/status/1704154091918610854

Russia's ability to produce replacement barrels for artillery is either limited or non-existant. It is removing barrels from equipment in storage...

https://twitter.com/HighMarsed/status/1705170029434606047

A lot of money is being invested in Russian production of military equipment but many factories don't have the parts needed to assemble weapons due to sanctions. Many workers are abused with 12-hour shits six days a week with all leave cancelled while the factory is working 24 hours a day. Former president Medvedev read a WW2 telegram from Staline to heads of factories demanding that they increase production. Many workers are quitting, forcing industries to compel prisoners to work. There's no word on whether they're getting paid or how long they work. And there are now laws that make it illegal for a factory to turn down a government work order. Over 300 employees have been prosecuted for failure to deliver contracted goods and face up to 10 years in prison...https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2023/09/18/last-chance-saloon

The Lancet has a listed range of 40 km, yet on September 11th, Lancet drones hit a Ukrainian airfield 70km away near Kryvyh Rih and destroyed 3 Su-25s and 2 Su-29s. Note that there is also a Russian drone recording the attack. 47.8959196392039, 33.52375593602666..

https://twitter.com/_Surovikin_/status/1704155198837391453

After much deliberations over issues unknown to us, the US will officially send the cluster bomb variant of ATACMS. The US is reported to have 364 of this variant in stock. Launched from either HIMARS or MLRS, it has a range of 300 km and a speed of Mach 3. The bomblets will not be useful against buildings, but would be very effective against aircraft without overhead cover...https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2023/09/22/atacms-ukraine-cluster-munitions/

Sweden provided 10 Leopards to Ukraine...

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1704852123895406974

The 79th Air Assault Brigade using VABs...

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1704616403251220622

The 44th Mechanized Brigade using Valuk personnel carriers...

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1704773971655147620

The latest list of US equipment that will eventually make its way to Ukraine...https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/3534283/biden-administration-announces-additional-security-assistance-for-ukraine/

No details, but the Ukraine and US will jointly produce air defense systems...https://www.president.gov.ua/en/news/razom-pracyuvatimemo-shob-spilno-z-amerikoyu-ukrayina-virobl-85805

The decoys do look impressive. For a few hundred or a few thousand dollars they can recreate any machine as a decoy and entice Russia to waste valuable munitions on it...

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1705102142887821494

One of the company's radars was successfully destroyed...

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1705113015849193545

(to be continued….)