Something like this could give Trump, et. al., in the PRBS world, ammunition to end this war, almost w/o regard to the effect of ending the war on Ukraine. Geez ....
It's a public relations end, not an actual or real end to the war. All that Trump needs is a photoplay to make him look good ... big headlines for today's news. Forget about tomorrow. He'll come up with another PRBS line to blame someone else.
Putin can promise. Can give security guarantees. We all know what good the security guarantees of three nations given Ukraine per the Budapest Memorandum were worth.
For years I've been saying that American aid to Ukraine is not free and sooner or later, regardless of who won the election, the creditors would come for their pound of flesh eventually. But the NAFO boys told me this is just a "Kremlin talking point." Yet here we are.
it depends on what'll happen to the US. Currently its on a trajectory of descending on a dictatorship. It might well be that the man-child Trump won't let it go and end up actively damaging Ukraine.
The attempt toward dictator ship could end up in civil war. On the other hand, getting the U.S. military--a huge social organization, not just weaponeers--to go along is a big unknown at best. Also the Secret Service!
Oh excuse my ignorance I didn't realize that Afghans don't need to survive, and they aren't suffering from crippling poverty and lack of medical supplies due to sanctions.
US aid has never been free, ever, and I'm not sure what rock you were under to think otherwise.
It's very important that Ukraine got almost nothing to propose resources wise. I've always been laughing about this hoax regarding rare-earth elements, lithium and similar BS at Donbass and in Ukraine general. Soviet geologists investigated Ukraine far and wide, and there were nothing of the special scale. It's important not to mix geological and extractable volumes. Ukraine has a lot of iron ore, magnanese and titanium. But there's no lack of these metals on the world market, especially considering less production costs in Brazil or Africa. In many cases break even will be a dream. I remember around 15 years ago some guys from Ukraine were reaching me to find Russian investors for insolvent company which was trying to extract titanium (if my memory serves me right, it was Dnepropetrovsk region). So, any investor will face a challenge and high initial costs. The real treasury of Ukraine is people and soils but these are harder to use as a collateral for USA.
Well, the "Ukraine's rare earth minerals" is a popular talking point for both sides, but not much evidence for it. Even if Ukraine *did* have a large share of rare earth minerals, that's not an instant get-rich-quick scheme, because dumping too much onto the market at once will collapse prices.
Consider that trump is claiming the US gave Ukraine 3 times what was actually sent, more than Europe, and yada, yada, yada. So, what he wants is a "deal" that sounds good, whether or not it can be realized because he is the Dealmeister. I'm so tired of this buffoon, and it's only been a month!
it was a Kremlin talking point. that's a fact. the thing is that chances that someone so insane that invents a debt based on aid comes to power were so slim that you couldn't take those people seriously. it's completely illegal and unethical. well, it turned out you were right.
I was saying that even when I was 100% convinced that Biden (and then Kamala) was going to win the election. I predicted Summer 2025 would be when the USA would seek an off ramp to the war.
And I remind you that it was Biden, not Trump, who plundered the Afghan central bank. What basis is there for the idea that the USA would be any kinder to Ukraine after it outlived its usefulness?
or uh, Africa right now lol. The *only* difference is that Ukrainians are white, and I think they were quite deluded for thinking that would result in different treatment. The Kissinger meme of it's fatal to be an ally of the US isn't new.
well, yes, its difficult to argue against something that happened. it reminds me of the russian invasion of 2022. I knew extremely well who the russians were and what they were capable of and yet I was adamant they wouldn't invade simply because they didn't have enough troops that that point and invading was madness. And yet they invaded. Point is, predicting irrational things is pure luck, not a special skill or an insight.
Well, that's war for you. Entering into a conflict always carries the risk of it completely backfiring and getting the opposite of what you wanted. The aim was to push regime change in Russia, instead there was regime change in the USA, and the new regime is seeking a truce. Not the first time such a thing has happened and probably not the last.
"Republicans that support Ukraine have yet to criticize Trump, given his emotional state and power to hurt their re-election efforts. Most senators blame Putin but some echo Trump’s and Putin’s call for Ukrainian elections."
Blame the American electorate, not even Putin. Trump gained 51.5% of the 150 million who voted. Add the 89 million eligible voters who didn't vote this time around (less those who were disenfranchised due to poverty, racism, etc.) and you yield approximately 59% of the American electorate in a manner of speaking who are responsible for the current mess. I would be tempted to add the Democratic Party, much of which their very left social liberalism alienated so many voters who went Republican this time around. Nonetheless, a good friend of mine, a liberal who also disliked some of the more lefty part of the liberal Democrats, warned me not to yield to Onesideism. The Republicans are the main problem now.
Have done some thinking the last week. Why this hard and agressive strategy from Trump?
What is his aim? Giving Putin all the cards in advance will only lead to a Ukrainian no to the "peace deal". Then Ukraine have 2 possabilities.
Give US everything they want to get millitary support, and not becoming a member of NATO.
Or rely on europeean countrys, while US ends sanctions, and maybe lose.
So my thinking. If the war ends soon, and Ukraine become a member of NATO, where will all the other members go to by drones in huge numbers, like they possible will. Will they pick the high cost western companys that have no production at the moment? Or will they pick a new member with high production of tested drones at a lower price?
And then you have CV90 wich i have been reading somewhere are/will be prodused in Ukraine, and Rheinmetal is about to open 3 factorys, and i think Norway is involved in a factory producing 155mm shells.
How will this impact on US millitary export?
Then i looked at top 10 export industry from US compared to top Ukrainian industry production, and they are not very different.
The other new NATO members after the ending of USSR was smaller, and more like customers to western millitary industry.
"On February 14th, the small oil tanker Seajewel suffered two explosions 20 minutes apart while anchored in an Italian port."
Funny that EU put a blind eye on a defiant act of terror in its waters. Though, after masohistic silence after Nord Stream explosion this not surprise at all.
I am very glad, that Ukraine finally started a strategic enduring campaign against the Russian Oil and Gas industry. Crippling the refineries and destroying the pumping stations (this might be much more difficult) is the best way to reduce the Russian income.
I think Zelenski is handling the Americans very well. He is polite and not aggressif with regard to trumpler. He stands firm. Wheras the new American establishment is just blatantly lying and supports the ruzzian genocidal war of destruction against Ukraine. And nobody will change my mind on this because this is what is going on. The American rhetoric is Goebbel speech and I invite everybody to reread Goebbel's desinformation speeches. (And, of course, Biden did not want Ukrainians to win over criminal ruzzia for his own reasons and Europe neither and they lost out on a historical turning point which could have changed a big part of the world and even for the better, even for the ruzzian swamps out there ). --- Zelenski cannot appear weak facing trumpler because he has to support the morale of the soldiers, volunteers a,nd population. Zelenski himself has to think of his country (he could sell it to trumpler and the USA. Anybody in Europe who has been working with Americans knows very well what it means to confront arrogant, incompetent American managers and their loathing of European working rules) which makes a big difference to the current American establisment and leaders who do not give a shit about the USA but only about their own ambitions, fear of trumpler and money and reelection. There is no other "loftier" motif but selfishness and the pleasure in brutality. The USA have been critizesed over decades for a lot of reasons, some justified, others not. The trump establishment shows the very worst of the American way of life and outspoken critique of this is now well placed and a protection. The trumpists by letting out their Schweinehund as the method of political and economic action are also appealing to the worst in others. It is a very effectif way of working. Plus terror, threats and maybe sooner or later real violence.
Something like this could give Trump, et. al., in the PRBS world, ammunition to end this war, almost w/o regard to the effect of ending the war on Ukraine. Geez ....
It's a public relations end, not an actual or real end to the war. All that Trump needs is a photoplay to make him look good ... big headlines for today's news. Forget about tomorrow. He'll come up with another PRBS line to blame someone else.
Putin can promise. Can give security guarantees. We all know what good the security guarantees of three nations given Ukraine per the Budapest Memorandum were worth.
Not the least. Dumpf can't care less about things of this kind.
Thank you for this content-rich and useful comment.
Thank you for this.
A long read from ISW that highlights why the Russian government should be afraid to demobilize its soldiers https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/putin-unlikely-demobilize-event-ceasefire-because-he-afraid-his-veterans
ISW says what their readers want to read. they completely lack critical thinking.
About their critical thinking I cannot comment, but I certainly hope they are right about this one!
For years I've been saying that American aid to Ukraine is not free and sooner or later, regardless of who won the election, the creditors would come for their pound of flesh eventually. But the NAFO boys told me this is just a "Kremlin talking point." Yet here we are.
it depends on what'll happen to the US. Currently its on a trajectory of descending on a dictatorship. It might well be that the man-child Trump won't let it go and end up actively damaging Ukraine.
The attempt toward dictator ship could end up in civil war. On the other hand, getting the U.S. military--a huge social organization, not just weaponeers--to go along is a big unknown at best. Also the Secret Service!
I thought that is what I just said ... subtlely. **LOL**
Oh excuse my ignorance I didn't realize that Afghans don't need to survive, and they aren't suffering from crippling poverty and lack of medical supplies due to sanctions.
US aid has never been free, ever, and I'm not sure what rock you were under to think otherwise.
It's very important that Ukraine got almost nothing to propose resources wise. I've always been laughing about this hoax regarding rare-earth elements, lithium and similar BS at Donbass and in Ukraine general. Soviet geologists investigated Ukraine far and wide, and there were nothing of the special scale. It's important not to mix geological and extractable volumes. Ukraine has a lot of iron ore, magnanese and titanium. But there's no lack of these metals on the world market, especially considering less production costs in Brazil or Africa. In many cases break even will be a dream. I remember around 15 years ago some guys from Ukraine were reaching me to find Russian investors for insolvent company which was trying to extract titanium (if my memory serves me right, it was Dnepropetrovsk region). So, any investor will face a challenge and high initial costs. The real treasury of Ukraine is people and soils but these are harder to use as a collateral for USA.
Well, the "Ukraine's rare earth minerals" is a popular talking point for both sides, but not much evidence for it. Even if Ukraine *did* have a large share of rare earth minerals, that's not an instant get-rich-quick scheme, because dumping too much onto the market at once will collapse prices.
Consider that trump is claiming the US gave Ukraine 3 times what was actually sent, more than Europe, and yada, yada, yada. So, what he wants is a "deal" that sounds good, whether or not it can be realized because he is the Dealmeister. I'm so tired of this buffoon, and it's only been a month!
So we are looking at a publicity move by Trump. But for what purpose is the question.
And that’s the same with mineral deals. Going to be many years in the future before they have any effect. Just renegotiate when needed.
it was a Kremlin talking point. that's a fact. the thing is that chances that someone so insane that invents a debt based on aid comes to power were so slim that you couldn't take those people seriously. it's completely illegal and unethical. well, it turned out you were right.
I was saying that even when I was 100% convinced that Biden (and then Kamala) was going to win the election. I predicted Summer 2025 would be when the USA would seek an off ramp to the war.
And I remind you that it was Biden, not Trump, who plundered the Afghan central bank. What basis is there for the idea that the USA would be any kinder to Ukraine after it outlived its usefulness?
it's a different context. Ukraine's future is in the EU. treating a (future) EU member state as if it was a 19th century Africa is outrageous.
"as if it was a 19th century Africa"
or uh, Africa right now lol. The *only* difference is that Ukrainians are white, and I think they were quite deluded for thinking that would result in different treatment. The Kissinger meme of it's fatal to be an ally of the US isn't new.
well, yes, its difficult to argue against something that happened. it reminds me of the russian invasion of 2022. I knew extremely well who the russians were and what they were capable of and yet I was adamant they wouldn't invade simply because they didn't have enough troops that that point and invading was madness. And yet they invaded. Point is, predicting irrational things is pure luck, not a special skill or an insight.
Well, that's war for you. Entering into a conflict always carries the risk of it completely backfiring and getting the opposite of what you wanted. The aim was to push regime change in Russia, instead there was regime change in the USA, and the new regime is seeking a truce. Not the first time such a thing has happened and probably not the last.
It will be interesting to see how Germany's new government acts in regards to defense and Ukraine.
"Republicans that support Ukraine have yet to criticize Trump, given his emotional state and power to hurt their re-election efforts. Most senators blame Putin but some echo Trump’s and Putin’s call for Ukrainian elections."
Blame the American electorate, not even Putin. Trump gained 51.5% of the 150 million who voted. Add the 89 million eligible voters who didn't vote this time around (less those who were disenfranchised due to poverty, racism, etc.) and you yield approximately 59% of the American electorate in a manner of speaking who are responsible for the current mess. I would be tempted to add the Democratic Party, much of which their very left social liberalism alienated so many voters who went Republican this time around. Nonetheless, a good friend of mine, a liberal who also disliked some of the more lefty part of the liberal Democrats, warned me not to yield to Onesideism. The Republicans are the main problem now.
Have done some thinking the last week. Why this hard and agressive strategy from Trump?
What is his aim? Giving Putin all the cards in advance will only lead to a Ukrainian no to the "peace deal". Then Ukraine have 2 possabilities.
Give US everything they want to get millitary support, and not becoming a member of NATO.
Or rely on europeean countrys, while US ends sanctions, and maybe lose.
So my thinking. If the war ends soon, and Ukraine become a member of NATO, where will all the other members go to by drones in huge numbers, like they possible will. Will they pick the high cost western companys that have no production at the moment? Or will they pick a new member with high production of tested drones at a lower price?
And then you have CV90 wich i have been reading somewhere are/will be prodused in Ukraine, and Rheinmetal is about to open 3 factorys, and i think Norway is involved in a factory producing 155mm shells.
How will this impact on US millitary export?
Then i looked at top 10 export industry from US compared to top Ukrainian industry production, and they are not very different.
The other new NATO members after the ending of USSR was smaller, and more like customers to western millitary industry.
Ukraine is big and have its own industry.
"On February 14th, the small oil tanker Seajewel suffered two explosions 20 minutes apart while anchored in an Italian port."
Funny that EU put a blind eye on a defiant act of terror in its waters. Though, after masohistic silence after Nord Stream explosion this not surprise at all.
Thank you for your summaries.
I am very glad, that Ukraine finally started a strategic enduring campaign against the Russian Oil and Gas industry. Crippling the refineries and destroying the pumping stations (this might be much more difficult) is the best way to reduce the Russian income.
I think Zelenski is handling the Americans very well. He is polite and not aggressif with regard to trumpler. He stands firm. Wheras the new American establishment is just blatantly lying and supports the ruzzian genocidal war of destruction against Ukraine. And nobody will change my mind on this because this is what is going on. The American rhetoric is Goebbel speech and I invite everybody to reread Goebbel's desinformation speeches. (And, of course, Biden did not want Ukrainians to win over criminal ruzzia for his own reasons and Europe neither and they lost out on a historical turning point which could have changed a big part of the world and even for the better, even for the ruzzian swamps out there ). --- Zelenski cannot appear weak facing trumpler because he has to support the morale of the soldiers, volunteers a,nd population. Zelenski himself has to think of his country (he could sell it to trumpler and the USA. Anybody in Europe who has been working with Americans knows very well what it means to confront arrogant, incompetent American managers and their loathing of European working rules) which makes a big difference to the current American establisment and leaders who do not give a shit about the USA but only about their own ambitions, fear of trumpler and money and reelection. There is no other "loftier" motif but selfishness and the pleasure in brutality. The USA have been critizesed over decades for a lot of reasons, some justified, others not. The trump establishment shows the very worst of the American way of life and outspoken critique of this is now well placed and a protection. The trumpists by letting out their Schweinehund as the method of political and economic action are also appealing to the worst in others. It is a very effectif way of working. Plus terror, threats and maybe sooner or later real violence.