Don's Weekly, 24 February 2025: Part 2
by Donald Hill
(…continued from Part 1…)
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Russia
The largest pumping station on the CPC pipeline was damaged after seven drones attacked it, reducing the flow by 30% for an estimated two months.
The Ilyich refinery, and the Tuapse and Ryazan refineries were attacked. Novoshakhtinsk was attacked for at least the third time in December. At the end of January, they shut down operations due to equipment damage. The Ilyich, Tuapse and Novoshakhtinsk refineries were expected to be closed due to low profitability at some point this year. These additional attacks and damages make it even more likely it will happen sooner.
The Syzran refinery was hit and was still burning the next morning.
The Institute of Computer Engineering in Moscow was consumed by fire.
On February 14th, the small oil tanker Seajewel suffered two explosions 20 minutes apart while anchored in an Italian port. Hull sections were bent inwards. The Seacharm is another tanker that suffered an explosion by a Turkish port on January 17-18th. The chemical-product tanker Grace Ferrum was substantially damaged by an explosion off the Libyan coast on February 9th. All three visited Russian ports. Accidental and human error causes have not been ruled out but they are being investigated as deliberate attacks. In addition to these attacks, the Koala tanker sank at the dock at the Russian port of Ust-Luga after a reported engine failure, and the Russian freight ship Ursa Major sank near Spain after an explosion in the engine room.
St. Petersburg will use surveillance cameras with “ethnic recognition” technology.
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Ukraine
Zelensky said he will step down for peace or entry into NATO.
Ukrainian military intelligence said that many Ukrainian units do not publish information about executions "because it has become routine" and that there are likely hundreds of instances of POW executions beyond the "dozens" recorded so far. It’s certainly yet another motive to keep fighting as a nation instead of surrendering.
Russia abducted 19,546 children from Ukraine. Only 1,221 have been returned.
Oleksiy Onyshchenko joined the Ukrainian military ten years ago, saying, “If not us, then who?” Military life is difficult even if you are young, and he was not young, dying of a heart attack at the age of 48. His friend, Andrii Pobihai, was a company commander before retiring at the age of 60 in 2019. He led 54 men at Mariupol and now all of them are dead. The last one was killed four days before his friend’s funeral, which was held in Bucha. The Russians killed over 400 civilians in Bucha in 2022. Pobihai and other Ukrainians are angry that Trump is even talking to Russia. He thinks there’s a good chance Trump will eventually change his mind. “When Russia captured Ukraine and mobilizes the best Ukrainian fighters into the Russian Army, then goes against NATO and Europe, maybe then,” he said with a shrug.
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Diplomacy
Plenty of words were spoken. Despite the feelings they invoke, and the danger they portend, it is the actions that count.
After excluding Ukraine and its European allies from discussions with Russia, the US said Ukraine must accept territorial losses and abandon any hope of joining NATO. The US also made clear that in setting the conditions for peace, they expect Europe to enforce the peace and pay for it, and that if any NATO troops in Ukraine were attacked, it would not trigger Article 5 (which requires member nations to come to each other’s aid). When questioned about why Ukraine was excluded from the peace talks, Trump said Ukraine never should have started the war. Zelensky said that Trump is in a disinformation bubble, said he wouldn’t accept a peace deal that was reached without Ukrainian participation, and said the terms of the mineral deal was not serious. Trump then used a long list of lies to attack Zelensky. Vance said that Zelensky will regret ‘badmouthing’ Trump. The US is also refusing to back a UN resolution sponsored by 50 nations that marks the third anniversary, condemns Russia’s open invasion, supports Ukraine’s territorial integrity and demands the withdrawal of Russian troops. Ukrainian politicians are both stunned and defiant in the face of Trump’s attacks. One opposition member said Zelensky made a grave mistake responding to Trump’s attacks. Here is a timeline of how the conversations between Trump and Zelensky changed over the years.
Three sources said that the US negotiators threatened to cut off Ukraine’s access to Starlink if they did not sign a minerals deal. Tesla, SpaceX and Musk denied the reports. This is the same Musk who said Zelensky’s sense of humor is amazing after Zelensky said they were an independent country.
Trump said it was a mistake to oust Russia from the G8 group. Russia and the US are discussing joint energy projects in the Arctic. At the end of January, Trump threatened to apply additional sanctions on Russia if they didn’t come to the peace table and discussed the possibility of removing them with Russia. Republicans that support Ukraine have yet to criticize Trump, given his emotional state and power to hurt their re-election efforts. Most senators blame Putin but some echo Trump’s and Putin’s call for Ukrainian elections.
Secretary of State Rubio said that sanctions will remain in place but might be eased if the Russians took steps in a direction that the administration wanted. He said that the discussions were primarily about US-Russian relations, not the Ukrainian war, and they discussed issues such as fully staffing their embassies that were largely closed due to multiple rounds of expulsions. The bi-lateral discussions were a test to determine if Russia was serious about other issues, such as the war in Ukraine, and it appears that future talks are warranted. Rubio said he would keep the allies informed and urged unity.
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In the event of a theoretical peace, Switzerland said it could send 200 token troops to a token peacekeeping force.
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Equipment
Zelensky said 30% of the equipment Ukraine used in 2024 was made in Ukraine. They made 2.5 million mortar and artillery shells in 11 months. The EU plans to build 2 million shells in 2025. Denmark’s prime minister said Ukraine is able to produce weapons faster and cheaper than anywhere else in Europe and the West should be alarmed. "We have a problem, friends, if a country at war can produce faster than the rest of us," she said. "I'm not saying we are at wartime, but we cannot say we are at peacetime anymore. So, we need to change our mindset."
Germany’s defense minister said, "The critics are right that we have to do more and that we did too little in the years before, much too little."
NATO’s Secretary General Mark Rutte said the US was "right" to think "we have to step up, we have to spend more."
Lithuania’s defense minister said, "Europe needs to up our defense spending very fast and very significantly to be able to stand on equal footing with the United States."
It will be interesting to see how Germany's new government acts in regards to defense and Ukraine.
"Republicans that support Ukraine have yet to criticize Trump, given his emotional state and power to hurt their re-election efforts. Most senators blame Putin but some echo Trump’s and Putin’s call for Ukrainian elections."
Blame the American electorate, not even Putin. Trump gained 51.5% of the 150 million who voted. Add the 89 million eligible voters who didn't vote this time around (less those who were disenfranchised due to poverty, racism, etc.) and you yield approximately 59% of the American electorate in a manner of speaking who are responsible for the current mess. I would be tempted to add the Democratic Party, much of which their very left social liberalism alienated so many voters who went Republican this time around. Nonetheless, a good friend of mine, a liberal who also disliked some of the more lefty part of the liberal Democrats, warned me not to yield to Onesideism. The Republicans are the main problem now.