Thanks Don (and Tom) for your reporting. Regarding leadership and organization issues, I get the impression that most (if not all) of the people at the general staff operate with the framework described in the post, insisting on micromanaging, splitting units and so on. Is it possible that reforms from higher up can change the incentives enough that the same generals would stop doing those actions, update the doctrine, and so on? Or is a change of military leadership needed? And if that is the case, where would Ukraine get the replacements for the general staff?
The new commander of the ground forces used to command a succesful brigade, but if Ukraine were to move many brigades commanders to higher positions, that would create a void at the brigade level, no?. Or is this a situation where succesful brigade commanders need to be promoted to higher levels, succesful battalion commanders to the brigade level, and so on?
Ultimately, the person at the top is responsible for the armed forces, and that person is Zelensky. It is his job to find someone to implement his objectives in a manner to his liking. This is something Lincoln did several times during the US civil war. It is not known what the level of Zelensky's understanding is, and he relies on Andriy Yermak for many matters. It is not know what Yermak's understanding of military matters are, or how he prioritizes military needs against political desires.
Some leaders may excel at a lower level and fail at higher levels. Many leaders need time and experience to develop their skills. What is clear is that the current situation is not working efficiently and it is costing territory and lives. With this level of senior dysfunction, the odds are high that changes will improve the situation.
Thanks for this summary of dysfunction. Lincoln “got it” two years in, but it took Jeff Davis longer, all the while hoping for European intervention for the South. My fear is that Zelenskyi and Co are more like the rebels, and still can’t see it’s past time to reorganize and counterattack.
Do you know of a specific Ukrainian senior officer (colonel or above) who has the ability and foresight to re-build the Ukrainian military to increase its effectiveness in the field?
IMHO Syrsky would be a capable Brigade commander, but not more. The root problem is the curse of the past (i.e. Soviet command tactics no matter on which echelon). They still believe it was that, which won them WW II, so why would they change it?
Ukraine has it's military heritage from the USSR and command tactics is a reflection of the Soviet society, where own initiative is neither allowed nor desired.
So the solution is a military person with a mindset not following the curse of the past.
Hmm, I read somewhere that this last week 5 locomotives were destroyed via various means. I'm hoping that this is the start of a focused effort on what appears to be a very obvious and hard to protect critical asset. Russia can't make more or not quickly enough, and they can't buy more right now. The railroads are already under huge stress and losing capacity daily. Knocking out locos would REALLY stress a major RU logistical channel.
Umm, Russia has the third largest rail fleet in the world and they do make their own locomotives. I don't understand how on earth you would think they don't 🤔
I said "can't make more or not quickly enough" which means they might be able to make more, but not quickly. Poor wording on my part, so worth correcting, thank you. I am curious though, how many locomotives can they make? I was understanding that most of them were imported.
Which are wearing out according to what I am hearing. Russian rail traffic has been dropping steadily and it's capacity has been decreasing since the beginning of the war. One reason I hear is due to wear and tear and lack of replacements of locomotives, as well as decreased or poor maintenance on both tracks and fleet. They had an issue earlier this year with dozens of trains forced to sit idle due to lack of locomotives when the UA hit Kursk and disrupted the regular line.
This doesn't work. Iran, for example, has a tiny fraction of Russia's industrial capability but has still managed to limp along up to the present day, despite fairly massive western efforts to undermine their economy. Even Afghanistan manages to keep NATO helicopters in the air, despite being under a near total embargo. Oh and btw that's exactly what I said in 2021, and all the NATO guys were furious at me, insisting that Afghans are too dumb and primitive to figure out avionics on their own.
"Russia is running out everything" talking points keep westerners hopeful and accepting of their standard of living declining. "Russia will collapse tomorrow" sounds a hell of a lot better than "Russia might collapse in 20 or 30 years."
I look at it as a cumulative effect. Will this alone do it? No, obviously. But it's one more point of pressure, one more thing Putin has to worry about. It all combines over time.
I don't know where to find the data (maybe Don has it?), but I can give some hints how to answer the question about much it can hurt them and what is their capacity in solving the problem.
1) Look at the average age of the locomotives and compare it to countries where there is no problem with mass transport. This would tell how much they are able to build.
2) In one of the past issues of "Don's Weekly" (which by the way I appreciate a lot) we were told that the Russian rail system with each year can transport less than it should. The question for me is: Is this because of a lack of working locomotives? If yes, hitting the right locomotives will have an effect, but don't expect too much immediately.
And please keep in mind there are different types of locomotives depending on what they are supposed to do (i.e. transportation of goods or people).
I'm hopeful that the newer blood in some of the top positions will help, but given how Srysky is I can't help but fear he will jump into their lanes and mess stuff up as well. It really does appear the Peter Principal is in play here with Syksky being promoted to a position above his abilities.
"There is no evidence for a Single Integrated Operational Plan for air defense or strategic air attacks. "
Does Ukraine even have sufficient numbers and type of combat and supporting aircraft for an effective SIOP whose purpose is air defense & strategic air attacks?
On a pessimistic note (I really hope I am wrong about this), I predict that the Trump Administration will screw Ukraine royally. The particular ideologies of several appointees in the future Trump Administration do not look favorably upon Ukraine.
The purpose of a SIOP is to manage the assets as efficiently as possible regardless of the number of assets available.
A lot of Trump's rhetoric, and the rhetoric of those around him, does not bode well for Ukraine. On the other hand, his words and actions to not always align. We'll just have to see what happens.
The Russian economy collapses daily.
Good points on the Ukrainian command structure once again.
Hopefully the promised reforms will go some way to fixing those issues, and more importantly, enhance the fight in Ukraine's favour.
Lessons Learnt people! (It's becoming my catch phase).
Thanks Don (and Tom) for your reporting. Regarding leadership and organization issues, I get the impression that most (if not all) of the people at the general staff operate with the framework described in the post, insisting on micromanaging, splitting units and so on. Is it possible that reforms from higher up can change the incentives enough that the same generals would stop doing those actions, update the doctrine, and so on? Or is a change of military leadership needed? And if that is the case, where would Ukraine get the replacements for the general staff?
The new commander of the ground forces used to command a succesful brigade, but if Ukraine were to move many brigades commanders to higher positions, that would create a void at the brigade level, no?. Or is this a situation where succesful brigade commanders need to be promoted to higher levels, succesful battalion commanders to the brigade level, and so on?
Ultimately, the person at the top is responsible for the armed forces, and that person is Zelensky. It is his job to find someone to implement his objectives in a manner to his liking. This is something Lincoln did several times during the US civil war. It is not known what the level of Zelensky's understanding is, and he relies on Andriy Yermak for many matters. It is not know what Yermak's understanding of military matters are, or how he prioritizes military needs against political desires.
Some leaders may excel at a lower level and fail at higher levels. Many leaders need time and experience to develop their skills. What is clear is that the current situation is not working efficiently and it is costing territory and lives. With this level of senior dysfunction, the odds are high that changes will improve the situation.
Thanks for this summary of dysfunction. Lincoln “got it” two years in, but it took Jeff Davis longer, all the while hoping for European intervention for the South. My fear is that Zelenskyi and Co are more like the rebels, and still can’t see it’s past time to reorganize and counterattack.
Aparently Lutsenko was desmissed, i hope they are waking up and changes are being made
Nope. That's just Lutsenko.
It's Syrsky who must go, or there is never going to be a serious change.
....at least now he's brought the 3rd Assault to Pokrovsk. Lets hope that's going to be his final decision.
Do you know of a specific Ukrainian senior officer (colonel or above) who has the ability and foresight to re-build the Ukrainian military to increase its effectiveness in the field?
IMHO Syrsky would be a capable Brigade commander, but not more. The root problem is the curse of the past (i.e. Soviet command tactics no matter on which echelon). They still believe it was that, which won them WW II, so why would they change it?
Ukraine has it's military heritage from the USSR and command tactics is a reflection of the Soviet society, where own initiative is neither allowed nor desired.
So the solution is a military person with a mindset not following the curse of the past.
..... and Zelensky needs to change or go? (thinking about how he undermined Zaluzhnyi)
Hmm, I read somewhere that this last week 5 locomotives were destroyed via various means. I'm hoping that this is the start of a focused effort on what appears to be a very obvious and hard to protect critical asset. Russia can't make more or not quickly enough, and they can't buy more right now. The railroads are already under huge stress and losing capacity daily. Knocking out locos would REALLY stress a major RU logistical channel.
Umm, Russia has the third largest rail fleet in the world and they do make their own locomotives. I don't understand how on earth you would think they don't 🤔
https://m.ridus.ru/kak-i-gde-v-rossii-proizvodyat-lokomotivy-303791.html
I said "can't make more or not quickly enough" which means they might be able to make more, but not quickly. Poor wording on my part, so worth correcting, thank you. I am curious though, how many locomotives can they make? I was understanding that most of them were imported.
Well sure but, uhh, there are literally thousands if not tens of thousands of locomotives.
Which are wearing out according to what I am hearing. Russian rail traffic has been dropping steadily and it's capacity has been decreasing since the beginning of the war. One reason I hear is due to wear and tear and lack of replacements of locomotives, as well as decreased or poor maintenance on both tracks and fleet. They had an issue earlier this year with dozens of trains forced to sit idle due to lack of locomotives when the UA hit Kursk and disrupted the regular line.
This doesn't work. Iran, for example, has a tiny fraction of Russia's industrial capability but has still managed to limp along up to the present day, despite fairly massive western efforts to undermine their economy. Even Afghanistan manages to keep NATO helicopters in the air, despite being under a near total embargo. Oh and btw that's exactly what I said in 2021, and all the NATO guys were furious at me, insisting that Afghans are too dumb and primitive to figure out avionics on their own.
"Russia is running out everything" talking points keep westerners hopeful and accepting of their standard of living declining. "Russia will collapse tomorrow" sounds a hell of a lot better than "Russia might collapse in 20 or 30 years."
I look at it as a cumulative effect. Will this alone do it? No, obviously. But it's one more point of pressure, one more thing Putin has to worry about. It all combines over time.
DO you read Andrew Tanner? He had some discussion on railroads in Russia in his latest post.
I don't know where to find the data (maybe Don has it?), but I can give some hints how to answer the question about much it can hurt them and what is their capacity in solving the problem.
1) Look at the average age of the locomotives and compare it to countries where there is no problem with mass transport. This would tell how much they are able to build.
2) In one of the past issues of "Don's Weekly" (which by the way I appreciate a lot) we were told that the Russian rail system with each year can transport less than it should. The question for me is: Is this because of a lack of working locomotives? If yes, hitting the right locomotives will have an effect, but don't expect too much immediately.
And please keep in mind there are different types of locomotives depending on what they are supposed to do (i.e. transportation of goods or people).
I'm hopeful that the newer blood in some of the top positions will help, but given how Srysky is I can't help but fear he will jump into their lanes and mess stuff up as well. It really does appear the Peter Principal is in play here with Syksky being promoted to a position above his abilities.
"There is no evidence for a Single Integrated Operational Plan for air defense or strategic air attacks. "
Does Ukraine even have sufficient numbers and type of combat and supporting aircraft for an effective SIOP whose purpose is air defense & strategic air attacks?
On a pessimistic note (I really hope I am wrong about this), I predict that the Trump Administration will screw Ukraine royally. The particular ideologies of several appointees in the future Trump Administration do not look favorably upon Ukraine.
The purpose of a SIOP is to manage the assets as efficiently as possible regardless of the number of assets available.
A lot of Trump's rhetoric, and the rhetoric of those around him, does not bode well for Ukraine. On the other hand, his words and actions to not always align. We'll just have to see what happens.
IMHO Trump never had, nor actually has a proper plan. What he talked regarding that matter was just ment to win him the election.
But one thing is 100% sure for me. If the Russians try to insult, threaten or try to ridicule him it will backfire on them.
Agreed. That's why you see leaders from Ukraine, Canada and Mexico try to sweet talk him and tell him what a great guy he is.
You would think putting naked pictures of Melania on TV won’t help Putin either.
Hello
I've just noticed the "paste error" only now :
"Don's Weekly, 24 February 2024: Part 3
Sarcastosaurus Dec 16" !!!!!
It seems that Don can timetravel : he wrote in February 2024 all the news that happened the last week.
Ok Don, could you tell us please if , in 2025, all the UA high command has been replaced by effective commanders and that Ukraine has won ?
Thanks Don and Tom. Downward trend in Shaheds is interesting. I wonder whether it will continue
Just heard about this from Stefan Korshak and thought to mention it in case anybody wants to help
Ukraine is crowd-sourcing drone production parts.
It is called the Druk Army and there are people all over the world printing drone parts on their home 3D printers and mailing them to Ukraine.
https://drukarmy.org.ua/en