27 Comments

Thanks for the update. Regarding the unwillingness to learn, the only solace I can find is that the Russians are equally bad at it. This of course means that both sides gets a lot of people killed unnecessary without achieving much, and thus prolongs the war and the suffering. For both sides. But at least Ukraine isnt the only one.

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Equally bad? Far, far worse surely? If you need convincing, look at the insane armoured assaults in Donetsk last week. Or at leaving blast doors on munitions bunkers open whilst stacking more munitions in front of them. Or building those large munitions dumps next to towns. Or ordering medics and drone pilots into human wave attacks. How about taking the sailors of the Admiral Kuznetsov and, with a wave of a magic wand, turning them into assault troops? All of these are examples from the last seven days. Military incompetence is an acknowledged field of academic study. No army has ever been exempt from it, but what we are seeing with the three-day SMO will go down in history as one of the greatest examples. Ukraine is not in the same league as Russia.

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Ok, far worse.i still want Ukraine to improve more. And while Russia is behaving stupid in many many ways it is some logic to what they are doing throwing people in meant waves. If you dont care about the losses of your own soldiers at all. Which Russia doesnt. Still more stupid.

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Fair enough. Maybe you need to give Ukraine credit for being smart. For learning from mistakes. No more Bakhmuts they said. And I hope they stick to it. It is important to remember that deep systemic change is very difficult to pull off in a war where you are fighting for your survival. No military is perfect and Ukraine's leadership deserves criticism for their mistakes but you, me, no one can fight a war on a 1200km+ front without making many mistakes. Russia's logic of human wave assaults shows their poverty of imagination. It is stupid and the greatest evidence of that is they can think of nothing else to do. In a war of attrition the side that burns through their resources fastest is the loser.

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I agree that mistakes happen, it cannot be avoided. I also agree that Ukraine learns better and is more inventive overall. Techological especially. Still I hope for more learning. And less repetition of mistakes. I do want Ukraine to win, and learning from mistake is important in that respect. But yes, bloody difficult.

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Regarding the last section, Ukraine taking that cool plant, are there any implications in that Sector from this?

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Of course. Ukrainians need less troops to control that sector, i.e. can re-deploy troops that used to keep the Aggregate Plant under siege - somewhere else.

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Great.

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Likely it has stronger structures and more protection for the troops from Russian glide bombs and artillery.

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Thanks, I just don't get the context why there is a paragraph about units fighting in Chasiv Yar between Kursk and Charkiv. Mistake?

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Because that unit is now in eastern Kursk. Given that it has been blamed for past failures, there is concern it might fail again.

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Thanks

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Hi, S.T. Glushkovo probably is "Ст. Глушково". Ст. means "станция" (railway STation), not "Sadovoye Tovarishchestvo". https://ibb.co/rHb7BVn

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I make no claim to understand the meaning of the village/city names but I don't make them up. On the Deepstate map that location is referred to as "Glushkovo", the same name for the town 8 km away on the Seym river. So I use the Google Maps label of S.T. Glushkovo (51.29174826621854, 34.73106584225177)

Another possible source of confusion in that sector is the two villages of Obukhovka. One is adjacent to Veseloe, the other is 5 km southeast of Snagost.

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Sadovoye Tovarishchestvo is literally a "gardening fellowship". A really, really weird name for a proper village even by Russian/Soviet standards, but it really doesn't seem to have a "better" one, which is probably the reason why people add "Glushkovo" to the name simply to avoid dumb follow-up questions after they tell their address. :) And yes, St. Glushkovo seems to stand for "station" - which is located in the very same place, so, given its size, it doesn't really matter whether it's St. or ST :)

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Probably the most logical reason for this confusion is that someone decided that Glushkovo, as a district center, is important enough to have the closest railway station named after it for orientation, and it just so happened that the closest railway station is located 8 km away in a small place called Sadovoye Tovarishschestvo, which might be a pain to pronounce even for Russians (at least if they have to do it often), and "Station Glushkovo" is a much more meaningful name for everyone outside it anyway...

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That makes sense.

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Thank you. I just wanted to make clear what exactly you meant. In some of previous issues the name "Sadovoye Tovarishchestvo" was used without addition "Glushkovo" and I didn't find it on the map). So, coordinates point on St. (station) Glushkovo. Probably there really is some "Sadovoye Tovarishchestvo" ("Garden Association") but actually it's the railway station near Glushkovo that was named by the name of this town. You're welcome to name it as you wish, however, IMHO the name "station" is correct and also points on the logistical importance of this place.

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S.T. Glushkovo has fewer letters to fit on the map so I switched to that.

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810th Russian Naval unit has been on the line a lot. I seem to recall they were involved from the start of the offensive. With such losses, i wonder when they'll pull back, if at all?

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These eternal frontline units are frequently reorganized and refilled with new recruits. Its personnel and capabilities have probably not much to do with what it was three years ago.

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No problem, soon the cooks and flight deck crew of Admiral Kuznetsov will join them. Bosuns and sailors with automatic weapons are a recipe for disaster.

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It's the same with the rest of the marine infantry, the VDV and Spesnatz. By now, it will be a minor miracle if more than just a few of those who crossed into Ukraine in Feb '22 are still in the ranks. With Putin's oh-so-smart decision to commit training battalions to the front line later that year, the recruits to these units can no longer be considered elite. Nor can the units themselves. If you fully replenish a brigade with fresh recruits there's no need to give it a rest is there? Just let it be chewed up again then repeat the process.

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Thanks Don. I do not envy you having to make sense of the confusion in Kursk.

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Thanks Don

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Never thought I'd live to see the day that Abrams and Leopard2 tanks would be warfighting in Kursk. Yeah, yeah, not quite the same Kursk as WW2, but dang.

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Thank you so very much for these weekly rendez-vous.

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