Regarding "expired" ATACMS missiles stock, according to calculations of Colby Badhwar there are around 12000 missiles available, including 532 M39A1s and 517 M48s & M57s.
As he writes: Block Is & IAs are non-compliant with DoD's CM policy and there are no plans to SLEP either those or the M48s & M57s which have also expired.
For those that missed it, we know that they are all in operable condition because Ukraine fired a very old Block I missile. Virtually the entire expired inventory is younger than the one fired.
Regarding the amount needed to have an effect, every little bit helps. Even if they don't fire another ATACMS, it was useful to reduce Russia's helicopter fleet. The estimates of Ka-52's in flying condition now range from 25-40. But, yes, hundreds of ATACMS would definitely modify Russian behaviors and reduce their capabilities. Thousands would have a much greater effect. I've read nothing that warns against using expired missiles.
Regarding "expired" ATACMS missiles stock, according to calculations of Colby Badhwar there are around 12000 missiles available, including 532 M39A1s and 517 M48s & M57s.
Current unexpired inventory: 1138 M48 & M57/E1
https://x.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1714314718888829361?s=20
As he writes: Block Is & IAs are non-compliant with DoD's CM policy and there are no plans to SLEP either those or the M48s & M57s which have also expired.
For those that missed it, we know that they are all in operable condition because Ukraine fired a very old Block I missile. Virtually the entire expired inventory is younger than the one fired.
https://x.com/ColbyBadhwar/status/1714667761551446518?s=20
So true.
Regarding the amount needed to have an effect, every little bit helps. Even if they don't fire another ATACMS, it was useful to reduce Russia's helicopter fleet. The estimates of Ka-52's in flying condition now range from 25-40. But, yes, hundreds of ATACMS would definitely modify Russian behaviors and reduce their capabilities. Thousands would have a much greater effect. I've read nothing that warns against using expired missiles.
Oh god, it's 1200 missiles, not 12000. Realised the mistake only now, sorry.
Thanks Don on to #3
Thanks again for this Don. Looking forward to more updates
Thanks Don for (it seems to me) a long and painful work to compile these updates. Great!!!