Don's Weekly, 23 October 2023: Part 2

(…continued from Part 1…)

Kherson

Attrition has been ongoing for months, as has the battle for the islands. Russian forces have low morale and are poorly trained. Ukraine identified and eliminated all the cameras, radars, EW platforms and thermal imaging devices they could find with drones, as well as a couple Russian drone teams, denying them situational awareness. They then launched a third crossing of dismounted infantry backed by strong artillery and seized territory in between the two existing bridgeheads. A Russian blogger says they advanced five kilometer from the river and seized two small villages. A Russian counter-attack with four tanks and infantry was forced back by artillery. The Russians kept attacking with air support and the Ukrainians withdrew after establishing defensive positions on the islands…

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1714689861599256676

While that battle was ongoing, Ukraine launched another crossing 25 km upriver at Krynky. Instead of waiting in the town for the inevitable counter-attack, Ukrainian forces spread out into the surrounding woods and Russia is having a hard time locating and pushing back the defenders.

These are not major operations. These crossings involve 1-200 light infantry backed by a lot of artillery and drones against poorly trained, low morale Russian defenders. That said, the Ukrainians do have a fair amount of light troops, marines and an armored and special forces brigade on the right bank…

https://twitter.com/secretsqrl123/status/1715903518433808720

A Russian missile misses a town but they publish the attack anyway. 46.87714167220438, 33.41771030280192…

https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1714004256011723117

Ukrainian infantry is attacked by a drone on the left bank…

https://twitter.com/moklasen/status/1715103416127529118

A Russian missile station in Crimea was hit be a missile. Russia claimed it shot down two S-200 missiles which then caused detonations on the ground…

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1714656124371124374

A Russian view of a BM-21 Grad attack by the Ukrainians on an ammo depot a few hundred meters away through the woods. They later walk through the impact zone to view the damage…

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1715329346905178364

***

Diplomacy

Zelensky wanted to visit Israel in a show of solidarity but was denied and told the time wasn’t right…https://kyivindependent.com/media-israel-refuses-zelenskys-visit-says-time-not-right/

Georgia’s ruling government is strengthening ties to Russia. Georgia is seeking EU membership. The President is making trip in support of EU membership. The government is trying to impeach her on the grounds that she is hurting efforts to gain EU membership…https://www.politico.eu/article/georgia-impeachment-procedure-president-salome-zourabichvili/

Another take on it…

https://twitter.com/Helenkhosh/status/1713872868432310732

There are quite a few from Belarus that would love to live in a democracy…

https://twitter.com/PavelSlunkin/status/1713947244305522929

The president of Azerbaijan went to the deserted city hall of Stepanakert in the former Nagorno-Karabakh in a symbolic gesture of peace and reconciliation after total victory. Just kidding…

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1713912495855882579

Ukraine indicted 20 FSB officers for helping Yanukovych’s security services suppress the EuroMaidan revolution…

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1714018017195999242

Four Ukrainian children that were taken to Russia will be returned after Qatar’s mediation…

https://twitter.com/MamedovGyunduz/status/1713892922762960913

The Czech Republic plans to eliminate Russian oil imports…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1714278664823808310

The cable between Sweden and Estonia has been damaged…

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1714316848819315037

Germany says its 4 billion euro defense budget isn’t enough to deliver what it promised to Ukraine…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1716052797462819313

***

ATACMS and other Deep Strike Capabilities

Logistics and command centers are more efficient if they are centralized and closer to the front lines. Ukrainians and Russians still had to place them far behind the front lines so that each other’s artillery couldn’t attack them. Then, in June of 2022, Ukraine received HIMARS. Its M31 Rockets were destroying huge stockpiles of ammo and a lot of command posts. Russia responded by moving some of their supply depots out of the 80 km range of the M31s, and dispersing other much smaller depots within its range. It’s command posts were also moved further back and some of them were hardened.

In May of 2023, Ukraine received the Storm Shadow (UK) and SCALP (French) missiles. These hit command posts and depots that had been out of range of the M31 rockets, as well as the bridges in Crimea that were in range. Due to limited stockpiles and low production rates, their rate of usage had to slow after the initial attacks.

ATACMS has many variants and the US released the M39A1, which is an older model with a shorter range. The range was short to make room for a lot of submunitions. They were in the process of being upgraded to a longer-ranged model without submunitions, just a single warhead that explodes with fragmentation, because of the concerns over the 2% dud rate of the sub-munitions. This weapon is not effective against hard targets, but, as demonstrated, the sub-munitions are very effective against soft targets, such as helicopters. I don’t know how many of this version are left in the stockpiles but new ones are not being produced.

GLSDB will be delivered before the year is out. It can penetrate 3 feet (.91 meters) of steel reinforced concrete using a 93 kg/205 lbs. fragmentation bomb. It has almost the same range as the M39 missile and is fairly cheap. Since this missile is fired into the air and then glides, it is slower than the M31 rocket. But the GLSDB doesn’t have the heat signature of a rocket, making it more difficult for MANPADS to target it. It can also be programmed to glide around objects, away from known air defenses and even approach the target from the rear, unlike the predictable path of the M31 rocket. It is also resistant to EW jamming. How it actually performs remains to be seen. It is the same size as the M31 rocket, so HIMARS can fire six missiles and MLRS can fire twelve at a time. Taiwan deferred delivery on the GLSDB’s they ordered so the missiles could be shipped to Ukraine. Ukraine is projected to receive almost 50 a month, or about 750 by the end of 2024.

The M48, M57 and M57E1 variants all have a 300 km range and a unitary high explosive fragmentation warhead. There are no stated plans to send this to Ukraine because US stockpiles are reported to be too low. They would have the range to attack the Kerch bridge, and the Circle of Error Probability (CEP) is 9 meters. That means 50% of the rounds are expected to hit within 9 meters of the aiming point. Using Google Map measurements, the Kerch railway bridge is 10 meters wide and all four lanes of the road bridge are about 23 meters wide.

The introduction of HIMARS had a dramatic effect because the Russians were not prepared for it. The M31 rockets are still very effective against a variety of targets within its 80 km range. The M39 ATACMS and the GLSDB will double the range of the M31 threat at 165 and 150 km. Since these missiles and rockets are ground launched, Russia has less of a warning than it would from air-launched missiles. GLSDB is unproven, as yet, but since it is cheaper, it’s possible that more missiles might be launched at an area target to saturate it and overpower any air defenses that may be present.

The air-launched Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles has three times the range of M31 rockets, but the high cost and low production rates means they will be limited to high value targets. Also, the Ukrainian aircraft launching them are influenced by Russian air defenses.

Even though there are no stated plans to send the M48 and M57 missiles to Ukraine due to US stockpile shortages, it is conceivable that a limited number of missiles could be sent for the sole purpose of attacking the Kerch bridge.

***

155mm Artillery has varying ranges depending on the gun and the round used. This circle represents the 24 km range of a standard HE round, which costs about $800.

HIMARS/MLRS are the wheeled and tracked launchers that fire a variety of missiles. This circle represents the 84 km range of the standard M31 missile that is so common in the videos. It costs $168k.

GLSDB is the Ground Launched Small Dimension Bomb that is being delivered and is also fired by HIMARS/MLRS. It has a range of 150 km and costs $40k.

The ATACMS M39 missile, also known as (aka) Block I, is a variant with a 165km range fired by HIMARS/MLRS. This missile doesn’t have the same range as other ATACMS versions because they packed in 950 submunitions. 1650 were produced, 411 were fired in Iraq and the rest were in the process of being upgraded to the M57E1. Each M39 costs over $1 million.

(For comparison: Storm Shadow/SCALP is a British/French air-launched cruise missile with a 250 km range. They’ve proven very effective but stockpiles are low and production is slow. They cost $2.5 million.)

The other ATACMS variants have not been sent because US stockpiles are reportedly too low. They all have a range of 300 km and are launched by HIMARS/MLRS.

●     M39A1- Aka Block IA, it is similar to the M39 and has twice the range but only 300 bomblets instead of 950. 610 were produced and 37 were fired in Iraq. The rest were being upgraded to the M57E1.

●     M48- Aka Quick Reaction Unitary, or Unitary missile. It uses the same warhead as the US Navy’s Harpoon missile. It is a single (unitary) warhead that has penetration capabilities along with high explosive blast fragmentation. 176 were produced and 58 were used in Iraq. Production was stopped to produce the M57 instead.

●     M57- Aka ATACMS 2000. It has the same warhead as the M48 but the guidance is more accurate. Six countries have ordered 198 M57 missiles. 513 were produced between 2004 and 2013. They cost $1.7 million.

●     M57E1- Aka ATACMS Modification, or Mod. These are the M39 and M39A1 missiles that have been converted into M57 missiles. This variant also has a proximity sensor for airbursts.

ATACMS Background

38 M142 HIMARS and 18 M270 MLRS have been pledged or shipped to Ukraine. None have been lost in combat.

On launch, an ATACMS missile accelerates to over three times the speed of sound and performs a series of maneuvers—including steep climbs and drops, making it difficult to shoot down. It can optionally be launched “off axis” (at reduction to maximum range) to obfuscate the position of the launchers, protecting them from counter battery fire.

The original M39 missiles only used inertial guidance. The bomblets had a 57% chance to destroy targets within 150m and a lesser chance to destroy targets up to 450 m from the detonation point. Unlike the DPICM bomblets, though, these submunitions were not designed to penetrate armored vehicles or hardened targets. With 950 bomblets and a 2% failure rate, 19 bomblets will be duds, on average.

The M39A1 only has 300 bomblets but GPS was added and the increased accuracy meant that the same number of bomblets would likely hit the target. To eliminate the issue with unexploded submunitions, the US started using a unitary, single explosive, warhead with fragmentation, which was realized in the M48 initially, and the M57 soon after. The M39 and M39A1 warheads were in the process of being upgraded to the M57E1.

In Iraq, ATACMS was used to suppress and destroy air defense systems, MLRS artillery systems and FROG-7 missile launchers. An A-10 pilot also called in a multi-missile ATACMS strike on a bridge as an Iraqi column was crossing it resulting in the destruction of 200 trucks and other soft-skinned vehicles. When dust storms grounded most of the allied aircraft, ATACMS conducted 50 missions to sustain the offensive. 77 M48 and M57 missiles were also used in Afghanistan.

As an example of what shrapnel can do, here is a truck that was hit by an M31 rocket a while ago. From a distance it may appear intact, but there are so many holes that it cannot be repaired…

The US is currently producing 110 Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM) during 2023/2024, with full production (of some unstated amount) increasing in 2025. Originally designed with a 500 km range, this might be increased to 800-1000 km now that the US has withdrawn from the Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile treaty. Slimmer than the current ATACMS, two of the PrSM’s could fit in a pod instead of just one ATACMS missile, so a HIMARS vehicle could launch two at a time and an MLRS vehicle could launch up to four. Production of the PrSM would lower the risk of the US releasing more of its ATACMS stockpile but that impact probably won’t happen for another year…https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a45114295/us-likely-to-send-atacms-missiles-to-ukraine/

Biden told Zelensky on his visit to Washington that he was going to send ATACMS, but only the cluster bomb variant. This variant has a range of about 165km, inertial guidance, and carries 950 M74 submunitions. It wasn’t announced to allow for a surprise attack, which happened last week. About 20 were initially delivered and five were used in the first attack. Luhansk and Berdyansk airbases were hit. Tom Cooper reports that 29 helicopters were destroyed or rendered inoperable at Berdyansk and 17 were knocked out at Luhansk. Initial counts had 9 helicopters destroyed based on visible wreckage that burnt, but many more were pierced by dozens of pieces of shrapnel. An air defense system and warehouses of ammo were destroyed, and several personnel were killed…

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1714288311643300294

Aftermath at Berdyansk…https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/destruction-from-ukraines-first-atacms-strike-now-apparent

A Ka-52 riddled with holes at Berdyansk. A helicopter doesn’t have to engulfed in flames to be unrepairable…

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1715388536495477197

As an example of what shrapnel can do, here is a truck that was hit by an M31 rocket a while ago. From a distance it may appear intact, but there are so many holes that it cannot be repaired…

And the damage at Luhansk…

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1714797845457350817

The next day, all helicopters that could be moved were evacuated from the airfield. Russians prepared the remaining helicopters for ground transport…

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1715069877961044070

20 missiles were initially sent. The longer-ranged ATACMS were not sent because US stockpiles of those missiles are low…https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/17/world/europe/ukraine-atacms-attacks-russia.html?te=1&nl=the-morning&emc=edit_nn_20231018

Some details on this variant of ATACMS. The reason why this version of ATACMS has a shorter range than other models is because it has so many submunitions…

https://twitter.com/TheDeadDistrict/status/1714334726889095462/photo/1

Some of the missile debris…

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1714285259725128149

The launch of the missiles…

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1714349858276982787

A slow-motion, close-up view of an ATACMS missile leaving the lancher…

https://twitter.com/mexic0la_/status/1714351585663598657

An M31 rocket shot down by Russian air defenses…

https://twitter.com/front_ukrainian/status/1715733442627829975

(….to be concluded in the Part 3…)