Thanks for the analysis. Take a break Tom if you need it, we understand the frustration. But don’t despair. Let’s hope for changes even if slowly. And thanks to Don for keeping up.
Tom, given today’s (20250625) messages by Trump to Iran and Israel I need to ask. Have someone in all the nefarious organizations (CIA, FSB, etc) you belong to added you to some Signal group or similar where you now are posting for Donald Trump? Because his messages could be interpreted as some very advanced form of sarcasm? Some 4D sarcasm where the writer is sarcastic of himself and everyone else without writing it. But I may of course just be confused.
RE: Incompetence--All the comments you have made regarding incompetence through many of your substack articles make me think of Ukraine's position in this nasty war seemingly as hopeless. Alternately, perhaps if Ukraine prevails (wins) in this war then it may be due in large part to the relatively lesser incompetence of its leaders (from top to bottom) compared with the greater incompetence of Russian leadership from top (Putin) to Russia's lowest level of leadership. Nonethless, this still would suggest that incompetence is the norm in this war and perhaps most other wars.
Incompetence is part of every war and it varies by how widespread or how bad it is. There's a lot of incompetence on the Russian side and some Ukrainian and Russian units are quite competent.
What's frustrating is while some leaders are replaced when they reveal themselves as incompetent (there are many examples in WW2 and other wars), that simply isn't happening enough on the Ukrainian side and it's costing lives and making fighting more difficult.
many thanks for keeping it up for informing us, despite all the frustration there is, regarding the “Ukrainian incompetence”.
I would like to get your thoughts on a bit of brainstorming on my end (been an amateur in the field).
For sure drones are no “Wunderwaffe”, but they appear to be the weapon which has evolved in a rapid fashion over the past years.
Assuming their development continues (increase in quantity and quality (e.g. the length of fiber optic cables, AI/automation elements in target recognition/tracking, etc.) and assuming the counter measures “remain behind”: My assumption would be that the front lines would become broader and broader, meaning the areas where man and equipment is “safe” would be pushed more apart from each side.
Wouldn’t this development benefit the defending side, as:
a) mechanized and non mechanized attacks would be less likely to be successful, because the “kill zones” would be farther
b) rocket and tube artillery would need to be further pushed back and would become less efficient (again due to increased kill zones)
c) surveillance and detection of enemy forces would increase, leading further to point a) and b)
I know, lots of assumptions, but looking at the same pictures, videos and assessments from Tom and you, I wonder where may this lead us in a “longer/broader term” and the above is currently my “look in the Glaskugel”.
Appreciate your input, in case you can spare a bit of time here.
Detection, the ability to attack what is detected, rates of fire and the speed of operations have always been part of warfare.
When HIMARS showed up, it forced Russia to set up their logistical centers further from the front line, make them smaller and make them harder to find. Closer to the front lines, the supply dumps had to be even smaller and more difficult to find. This meant a lot more vehicular traffic to sustain their forces in a less efficient manner.
Drones have increased the rate and range of detection and the ability to attack what is detected. Trenches without overhead cover that were adequate against artillery is useless against drones. Attacks against logistical vehicles make it even more difficult to sustain forces. Drone effectiveness has reached a point where artillery can no longer be pushed any further back and still have an impact on the battle, so artillery remains in range, takes measures to avoid detection and suffers a higher rater of destruction.
Drones have had a limit to their rate of fire. In the past, the finite number of radio frequencies used was a significant limit and Russian drone units operating too close to each other would end up jamming each other. With fiber optic cables that is less of a limiting factor. It still takes time to prep a drone and they are still limited by the number of drone teams they have, but the speed of operations for both sides is limited. They cannot quickly assemble and launch an operation that would exceed that capabilities of the drones to neutralize the assault as long as it is detected. This is why forces on both sides are dispersed and spend a great deal of energy on avoiding detection.
Since large scale operations conducted at speed are beyond current capabilities, both armies try to use a combination of detection avoidance and speed for their small scale assaults. This might come in the form of armored vehicles quickly dismounting infantry for assaults and then withdrawing for Ukraine, or motorcycles, golf carts or any vehicle rushing infantry across the open for the Russians. The faster both sides can secure their objectives and get into cover and concealment, the greater chance they have to survive. If it takes a long time then the opposing side can send drone after drone until everyone is dead.
There is a lot of skirmishing during detection operatons. Reconnaissance drones are sent out and interception drones are sent to kill them. Ukraine is using radars to better detect Russian reconnaissance drones and Russia is trying to identify those radars and destroy them. Detection and avoiding detection is a matter of life and death.
Drones have altered the battlefield but artillery and armored vehicles are still very useful. They are not obsolete, but their role in operations has changed. Drone capabilities and numbers will continue to increase, but at some point in the future an effective defense against them will be created and then the drones will remain useful even as their role in operations changes.
The evolution of weapons in warfare is not unlike the evolution in biology as species adapt to terrain, climate and other species. Armies around the world are being forced to adapt to the evolution of the drone.
Thanks Tom & Don. The Israeli-Iranian melodrama concluded but the results were definitely a loss for Iran. I wonder whether the result will lead to someone in Iranian military turning against the oldest among the old farts.
I would like to see on this from other point of view. I also do not like Zelensky and Ko.
Who orders Drapatyi to be on his position and role? Who orders Zalyzhnyi to be in carge of ZSU? The same one who sets Sirksky on his position and Madyar.
Mabye some one on his place because of effectivness that we can't estimate objectivelly?
Fact is that russians during thier 1.5 years assault occupied 1% of Ukraine territory.
Mabye we forget that this is war and russians are not terrorist organization like hamas but a biggest country?
Thanks for the analysis. Take a break Tom if you need it, we understand the frustration. But don’t despair. Let’s hope for changes even if slowly. And thanks to Don for keeping up.
Tom, given today’s (20250625) messages by Trump to Iran and Israel I need to ask. Have someone in all the nefarious organizations (CIA, FSB, etc) you belong to added you to some Signal group or similar where you now are posting for Donald Trump? Because his messages could be interpreted as some very advanced form of sarcasm? Some 4D sarcasm where the writer is sarcastic of himself and everyone else without writing it. But I may of course just be confused.
RE: Incompetence--All the comments you have made regarding incompetence through many of your substack articles make me think of Ukraine's position in this nasty war seemingly as hopeless. Alternately, perhaps if Ukraine prevails (wins) in this war then it may be due in large part to the relatively lesser incompetence of its leaders (from top to bottom) compared with the greater incompetence of Russian leadership from top (Putin) to Russia's lowest level of leadership. Nonethless, this still would suggest that incompetence is the norm in this war and perhaps most other wars.
Incompetence is part of every war and it varies by how widespread or how bad it is. There's a lot of incompetence on the Russian side and some Ukrainian and Russian units are quite competent.
What's frustrating is while some leaders are replaced when they reveal themselves as incompetent (there are many examples in WW2 and other wars), that simply isn't happening enough on the Ukrainian side and it's costing lives and making fighting more difficult.
Hi Don, hi Tom,
many thanks for keeping it up for informing us, despite all the frustration there is, regarding the “Ukrainian incompetence”.
I would like to get your thoughts on a bit of brainstorming on my end (been an amateur in the field).
For sure drones are no “Wunderwaffe”, but they appear to be the weapon which has evolved in a rapid fashion over the past years.
Assuming their development continues (increase in quantity and quality (e.g. the length of fiber optic cables, AI/automation elements in target recognition/tracking, etc.) and assuming the counter measures “remain behind”: My assumption would be that the front lines would become broader and broader, meaning the areas where man and equipment is “safe” would be pushed more apart from each side.
Wouldn’t this development benefit the defending side, as:
a) mechanized and non mechanized attacks would be less likely to be successful, because the “kill zones” would be farther
b) rocket and tube artillery would need to be further pushed back and would become less efficient (again due to increased kill zones)
c) surveillance and detection of enemy forces would increase, leading further to point a) and b)
I know, lots of assumptions, but looking at the same pictures, videos and assessments from Tom and you, I wonder where may this lead us in a “longer/broader term” and the above is currently my “look in the Glaskugel”.
Appreciate your input, in case you can spare a bit of time here.
@Tom, hope family members are getting better!
Detection, the ability to attack what is detected, rates of fire and the speed of operations have always been part of warfare.
When HIMARS showed up, it forced Russia to set up their logistical centers further from the front line, make them smaller and make them harder to find. Closer to the front lines, the supply dumps had to be even smaller and more difficult to find. This meant a lot more vehicular traffic to sustain their forces in a less efficient manner.
Drones have increased the rate and range of detection and the ability to attack what is detected. Trenches without overhead cover that were adequate against artillery is useless against drones. Attacks against logistical vehicles make it even more difficult to sustain forces. Drone effectiveness has reached a point where artillery can no longer be pushed any further back and still have an impact on the battle, so artillery remains in range, takes measures to avoid detection and suffers a higher rater of destruction.
Drones have had a limit to their rate of fire. In the past, the finite number of radio frequencies used was a significant limit and Russian drone units operating too close to each other would end up jamming each other. With fiber optic cables that is less of a limiting factor. It still takes time to prep a drone and they are still limited by the number of drone teams they have, but the speed of operations for both sides is limited. They cannot quickly assemble and launch an operation that would exceed that capabilities of the drones to neutralize the assault as long as it is detected. This is why forces on both sides are dispersed and spend a great deal of energy on avoiding detection.
Since large scale operations conducted at speed are beyond current capabilities, both armies try to use a combination of detection avoidance and speed for their small scale assaults. This might come in the form of armored vehicles quickly dismounting infantry for assaults and then withdrawing for Ukraine, or motorcycles, golf carts or any vehicle rushing infantry across the open for the Russians. The faster both sides can secure their objectives and get into cover and concealment, the greater chance they have to survive. If it takes a long time then the opposing side can send drone after drone until everyone is dead.
There is a lot of skirmishing during detection operatons. Reconnaissance drones are sent out and interception drones are sent to kill them. Ukraine is using radars to better detect Russian reconnaissance drones and Russia is trying to identify those radars and destroy them. Detection and avoiding detection is a matter of life and death.
Drones have altered the battlefield but artillery and armored vehicles are still very useful. They are not obsolete, but their role in operations has changed. Drone capabilities and numbers will continue to increase, but at some point in the future an effective defense against them will be created and then the drones will remain useful even as their role in operations changes.
The evolution of weapons in warfare is not unlike the evolution in biology as species adapt to terrain, climate and other species. Armies around the world are being forced to adapt to the evolution of the drone.
Many thanks for your detailed answer :-)!
Thanks Tom & Don. The Israeli-Iranian melodrama concluded but the results were definitely a loss for Iran. I wonder whether the result will lead to someone in Iranian military turning against the oldest among the old farts.
I just want to highligh a simple fact that Ukrainian soldiers, civilians are killed by russians,
not because of Syrsky or Zelensky or Yearmak or someone else in Ukraine.
Critics should not switch focus to Ukraine. Otherwise it ends up with Ukrainians guilty of russian peacfull aggression.
I would like to see on this from other point of view. I also do not like Zelensky and Ko.
Who orders Drapatyi to be on his position and role? Who orders Zalyzhnyi to be in carge of ZSU? The same one who sets Sirksky on his position and Madyar.
Mabye some one on his place because of effectivness that we can't estimate objectivelly?
Fact is that russians during thier 1.5 years assault occupied 1% of Ukraine territory.
Mabye we forget that this is war and russians are not terrorist organization like hamas but a biggest country?
To the competency
https://www.novinky.cz/clanek/valka-na-ukrajine-donbas-mezi-trumpem-a-putinem-mir-je-v-nedohlednu-40525235#dop_ab_variant=0&dop_source_zone_name=novinky.web.hp