This is rather shocking from Magyar. He fights the war from a bunker 5 km from the frontline with clean drinking water and MedEvac on the dial. He left Bakhmut when things got hot. I'm sure that Krinky was not a bad battle for him. He didn't have to leave 4 out 5 of his dead buddies behind.
He's in the army, so his unit goes where it's told to go. To be fair, he was joined by others in his criticism of the article, saying it did not accurately reflect the overall situation in the Kherson region. Also keep in mind that he's raised a lot of money not just for his drone unit, but also boats, engines and medical evacuation carts, among other events. And his unit, which is now fighting in both Kherson and Kharkiv, is one of the best in the business.
Just a small correction: Yekaterinburg is not in Siberia, but in Ural (region). It is actually the capitol of that region. Therefore the factory is called „Uralmash“, where „mash“ stands for „machine“. Siberia is further east.
Yekaterinburg is, was & always will be in Siberia, that part of Asia & Russia which is East of the Ural mountain range & ends on the shore of the Pacific ocean. Current Russian administrative divisions or the feelings of some of the inhabitants of the city do not change anything to this fact.
Interesting that Russian aircraft are seldom caught on the ground in Ukrainian air base strikes.
Now I understand some aircraft might be flown out at the first sign of trouble.
But:
1. If Russian IADS is not catching the Ukrainian drones initially, how are Russians get notification of drone strikes and then being able to evacuate operational aircraft?
2. Are Russians become adept at hiding non-serviceable aircraft especially as a Flanker is not exactly a small beast?
3. Have Russians pulled back aircraft from most bases close to frontlines
What we do know:
- Russian airbases seldom have hangars or HAS to hide aircraft in. Even earth berm revetments are rare.
Eg Milierovo which was just hit has a maintenance hangar and 4 earth berm revetments. That's it. There's usually up to 30-ish aircraft stationed here - 24 Su-30SM and 4-ish Su-30M2 trainers. We know that they've also flown Su-35s from here.
Even if we assume some of the aircraft are deployed elsewhere or have been sent for deep overhaul (especially as Russia lacks reserve aircraft*) the flight line should be reasonably full.
So flight line should be reasonably full when the drones arrive.
*In terms of Su-30 aircraft reserves, the Russian Air Force has taken delivery of about 110 Su-30s (both SM MRCA and SM2 conversion trainers). Virtually all aircraft are actively assigned to active, training or test units. The Russian Navy has taken delivery of about 30-ish Su-30s - also all assigned to combat and training units.
At least 11 lost in Ukraine.
New deliveries during the war have not kept up with losses:
2022 - 4 (all delivered to Navy)
2023- 2 (all delivered to Navy)
2024- ???
It does seem Su-30s are being earmarked primarily for export with new contracts signed by Myanmar and Belarus. hence declining deliveries to Russia.
From what I can tell with Russian new build aircraft deliveries since 2022 (as well as losses in 2022-24 time frame):
Su-30 - 6 delivered 2022-24, 11 lost
Su-34 - 20 delivered, 30 lost*
Su-35 - 19 delivered, 7 lost*
Su-57 - up to 12, 1 damaged
*Losses based on Oryx and do not take into account 10 Su-34 and 2 Su-35 claimed in April
TOTAL: 57 delivered, 50 confirmed lost
By year:
2022: 27 new jets delivered (4 x Su-30, 10 x Su-34, 7 x Su-35, 6 x Su-57)
2023: 24 new jets delivered (2 x Su-30, 6 x Su-34, 10 x Su-35, 6 x Su-57*)
2024: 6 new jets delivered (? x Su-30, 4 x Su-34, 2 x Su-35, 0** x Su-57)
*3 batches reported. Average Russian batch is 2 aircraft.
** I had read that Russia took delivery of only 12 production Su-57s and then stopped as they're looking at finalising Su-57M and getting that into production.
Current total Russian tactical combat jets from what I can see:
40 x MiG-29 (only those assigned to defence of Armenia + 22 MiG-29K naval fighters, excludes MiG-29UBs used as trainers)
160 x MiG-31
6 x MiG-35
120 x Su-24 (about half used for recce, probably much less used as data on Su-24 is old))
130 Su-25 (includes UB trainer, probably much less as data on Su-25 is old)
This is rather shocking from Magyar. He fights the war from a bunker 5 km from the frontline with clean drinking water and MedEvac on the dial. He left Bakhmut when things got hot. I'm sure that Krinky was not a bad battle for him. He didn't have to leave 4 out 5 of his dead buddies behind.
He's in the army, so his unit goes where it's told to go. To be fair, he was joined by others in his criticism of the article, saying it did not accurately reflect the overall situation in the Kherson region. Also keep in mind that he's raised a lot of money not just for his drone unit, but also boats, engines and medical evacuation carts, among other events. And his unit, which is now fighting in both Kherson and Kharkiv, is one of the best in the business.
I would doubt a marine ( any country) only when he says that something is easy.
Thank you for your weekly reporting.
Just a small correction: Yekaterinburg is not in Siberia, but in Ural (region). It is actually the capitol of that region. Therefore the factory is called „Uralmash“, where „mash“ stands for „machine“. Siberia is further east.
I was heavily influenced by the headlines in the article.
An addendum: Most dictionaries describe Siberia starting at the Ural mountains and Yekaterinburg is to the east of the mountains. But, as this 2017 article makes clear, the inhabitants of Yekaterinburg firmly consider themselves part of the Ural mountains, not Siberia. The article then tries to find the Siberian border: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/siberia-russia-city-yekaterinburg-urals-europe-asia-a7513506.html
Yekaterinburg is, was & always will be in Siberia, that part of Asia & Russia which is East of the Ural mountain range & ends on the shore of the Pacific ocean. Current Russian administrative divisions or the feelings of some of the inhabitants of the city do not change anything to this fact.
Thanks for the report Don
Interesting that Russian aircraft are seldom caught on the ground in Ukrainian air base strikes.
Now I understand some aircraft might be flown out at the first sign of trouble.
But:
1. If Russian IADS is not catching the Ukrainian drones initially, how are Russians get notification of drone strikes and then being able to evacuate operational aircraft?
2. Are Russians become adept at hiding non-serviceable aircraft especially as a Flanker is not exactly a small beast?
3. Have Russians pulled back aircraft from most bases close to frontlines
What we do know:
- Russian airbases seldom have hangars or HAS to hide aircraft in. Even earth berm revetments are rare.
Eg Milierovo which was just hit has a maintenance hangar and 4 earth berm revetments. That's it. There's usually up to 30-ish aircraft stationed here - 24 Su-30SM and 4-ish Su-30M2 trainers. We know that they've also flown Su-35s from here.
Even if we assume some of the aircraft are deployed elsewhere or have been sent for deep overhaul (especially as Russia lacks reserve aircraft*) the flight line should be reasonably full.
So flight line should be reasonably full when the drones arrive.
*In terms of Su-30 aircraft reserves, the Russian Air Force has taken delivery of about 110 Su-30s (both SM MRCA and SM2 conversion trainers). Virtually all aircraft are actively assigned to active, training or test units. The Russian Navy has taken delivery of about 30-ish Su-30s - also all assigned to combat and training units.
At least 11 lost in Ukraine.
New deliveries during the war have not kept up with losses:
2022 - 4 (all delivered to Navy)
2023- 2 (all delivered to Navy)
2024- ???
It does seem Su-30s are being earmarked primarily for export with new contracts signed by Myanmar and Belarus. hence declining deliveries to Russia.
From what I can tell with Russian new build aircraft deliveries since 2022 (as well as losses in 2022-24 time frame):
Su-30 - 6 delivered 2022-24, 11 lost
Su-34 - 20 delivered, 30 lost*
Su-35 - 19 delivered, 7 lost*
Su-57 - up to 12, 1 damaged
*Losses based on Oryx and do not take into account 10 Su-34 and 2 Su-35 claimed in April
TOTAL: 57 delivered, 50 confirmed lost
By year:
2022: 27 new jets delivered (4 x Su-30, 10 x Su-34, 7 x Su-35, 6 x Su-57)
2023: 24 new jets delivered (2 x Su-30, 6 x Su-34, 10 x Su-35, 6 x Su-57*)
2024: 6 new jets delivered (? x Su-30, 4 x Su-34, 2 x Su-35, 0** x Su-57)
*3 batches reported. Average Russian batch is 2 aircraft.
** I had read that Russia took delivery of only 12 production Su-57s and then stopped as they're looking at finalising Su-57M and getting that into production.
Current total Russian tactical combat jets from what I can see:
40 x MiG-29 (only those assigned to defence of Armenia + 22 MiG-29K naval fighters, excludes MiG-29UBs used as trainers)
160 x MiG-31
6 x MiG-35
120 x Su-24 (about half used for recce, probably much less used as data on Su-24 is old))
130 Su-25 (includes UB trainer, probably much less as data on Su-25 is old)
100 Su-27 (includes UB traIner)
130 Su-30
15 Su-33
117 Su-34
110 Su-35
20 Su-57 (includes prototypes/test)
TOTAL: 948 (probably much less)