Don's Weekly, 22 July 2024: Part 3

by Donald Hill

(…continued from Part 2…)

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Zaporizhzhya

Because walking takes longer and gives Ukraine more chances to attack infantry with mortars, artillery and drones, Russia had been using armored vehicles to transport infantry. They briefly used motorcycles in Avdiivka in October and then used Chinese “golf carts” in the same area, more recently. Now motorcycles are being used again in increasing numbers. A squad of Russian dragoons ride into Urozhaine.

Another near miss as a drone tries to hit a helicopter. Ukraine is in the very early stage of developing a drone specifically to intercept helicopters. Drones currently exist that can reach 350 kph.

A Russian air defense system was detected and it was within range of either a HIMARS or MLRS vehicle.

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Kherson

In October, 2023, Ukraine crossed the Dnipro river and took possession of part of Krynky and later pushed against Russian defenses near Pishchanivka. Russian counter attacks resulted in high casualties in both personnel and vehicles. By December, Ukrainians were huddled in the basement of destroyed buildings and digging holes in the marsh. The New York Times wrote an article about the experiences of some Marines, one of which said, “The left bank was like purgatory. You are not dead yet, but you don’t feel alive.” Magyar, commander of a drone unit in the area, and other Ukrainian officials said the article did not reflect the realities of the actual situation.

Most of the village was only 400 meters wide and there were reports with video support that Ukraine expanded its control by as much as 3 kilometers along the strip, but the Russian bombardment became less intense and less frequent over time. The last airstrike recorded and reported was on May 5th. The last artillery bombardment was on June 23rd. Russian infantry were recorded placing anti-tank mines to destroy a basement on July 2nd, but after that, nothing.

Even with the Russian bombardment lessening, the trips across the river remained very dangerous, with many boats destroyed by drones and mines. Replacements and supplies would be brought to the left bank. Wounded and soldiers being rotated out were brought to the right bank. The dead were also brought to friendly lines when they could, but often there wasn’t room because the living were the priority.

Last week, the Ukrainians withdrew from Krynky. They still have a reported presence in the islands around Krynky. From October 2023 to June 2024, Ukraine lost 58 pieces of equipment, such as boats and artillery. In that same period, Russia lost 271 vehicles and artillery pieces. Ukraine managed to remove 262 of their dead from the left bank but 788 are reported officially as missing: actually, they are unburried dead, bodies of whom were left on the left bank.

A Ukrainian Iris-T air defense system was hit.

A Russian report said that within 30 minutes he counted 48 Ukrainian drones.

An improvised Russian minesweeper on the river.

Ukraine detected a Russian 152 mm SPG trying to hide in a firebreak in a forest and defeated its drone cage with multiple bombs.

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Crimea

As an indicator of Russian civilian awareness, Ukraine says that 80% of Russian vacation plans for Sevastopol are being canceled and a third of reservations throughout the rest of Crimea are being canceled. Local resorts are offering discounts of up to 40%.

At Lake Donuzlav, sea drones sank a patrol boat and aerial drones hit a “headquarters with a command post, ammunition and equipment depot, electrical substation, technical facilities and firing positions”. The sea drone video shows drones impacting as it was making its run on the patrol boat.

Three days before that attack, Ukraine announced that the last patrol boat of Russia’s Black Sea fleet left Sevastopol for ports on the eastern coast.

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Unknown Location

A Russian helicopter observes an MLRS firing. There is a Russian report that one of their helicopters was hit by a rocket fired by a MLRS.

A drone drops a bomb on a tank at night and a driver leaps out of the tank. The crew then run back to the tank and are on top when a pair of bombs probably hit the driver and cause an explosion that blows the other two crew members off the tank.

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Russia

Thermal activity was detected by satellites at Millerovo Airbase in Rostov Oblast. There was also video of the attack. It appears that a maintenance unit and fuel depot were destroyed, but there’s no evidence that aircraft were hit.

As mentioned in the Part 2, but here ‘for the records’: new Russian recruits are varied, but some older recruits say that at least they’ll get paid for dying, or were sent by a wife saying that if they die at least they’ll be good for something. They do have problems walking 3 km with a 60 kg pack, though.

In April, a fire burned 4500 square meters of Uralmash in Yekaterinburg, Siberia that produces electric transformers according to Russian authorities. This becomes more relevant as Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s electrical grid increases. In 2021-22, Russia exported $134 million worth of transformers and imported $978 million worth, 65% from China.

Last week, a fire burned 200 meters of an old warehouse owned by Uraltransmash (a different company) in Yekaterinburg. It is the only company that produces self-propelled artillery. It also produces towed artillery and mortars. The area burned, though, was identified as a location where they were dismantling vehicles. 200 square meters of the building was reported destroyed. They could have been stripping non-functional vehicles for parts in order to create new vehicles.

For a brief time, the Rostov nuclear power plant shut down one of its four reactors due to a turbine issue. Another was shut down for regular maintenance, according to Russia. The facility provides 75% of the power in the region and it could not keep up with demand in the hot weather. 2-300 protesters blocked a street saying that at first power was cut once a week, then three times a week, and now 12-15 hours a day. Some of the protestors were arrested.

Two-and-a-half-years-later, and for some, Russia never invaded Ukraine.

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(…to be continued…)