Re the drone strike this morning on “factory”, well I don’t think that a concentrated campaign means trying to strike one type of targets 100%, all the time. But … there appeared photos that SBU hit a fuel tank (empty) at the airplane (repair) factory! So actually what they tried is just to have another “bavovna” for the social media and that’s it. How you damage an aircraft factory by hitting a fuel tank!? I understand that an airport or refinery without its adjacent fuel tanks will stop working but an aircraft manufacturing/repairing factory where the needs for fuel and its storage are much lower …
I only have fragments of data for stockpiles and production. I read in a few place that Russia had 8,000 S300 missiles in 2022. but last April Zelensky said they had 10,000. They produced about 3,000 launchers and had around 800 active in 2017, but I don't know how many might have been pulled from storage.
I don't know how many S400 missiles they have but it won't be as many as the S300 missiles. A lot of reports suggested that there were 56 full S400 systems before the war. And then there are the extra launchers and other components that are in addition to the complete systems. I took a lot at the situation back in June.
In general terms I think we can say that Russia has a lot of air defense systems and missiles, they're losing components at a faster rate than they can replace them, Ukraine's strategic drone production is increasing and Russia is a big country, so they have to choose what they want to defend and how well they want to defend it.
Spending drones on wounded russians to finish them seems like a waste to me, unless they are just lightly wounded and can move on their own. There are accounts that a badly wounded soldier is more expensive than a dead one because he has to be evacuated and then treated for a long time. Though that might not really be the case for russians, but still I doubt that a soldier with broken legs or damaged internal organs can be of any use in a trench, not to say about assaults.
The most common wound from a drone is fragmentation. If they heal from fragmentation wounds they will just have to be killed again later.
The cost to kill one soldier is high even if you subtract pay, logistics and other factors and just focus on the weapons used. A single 155 mm round cost $3000 these days and it takes more than one shell to kill one person, on average. Ukraine has enough drones to expend 2-3 on each soldier at about $400 each.
I've been at the hospital and I talked to the guys with legs damaged by fragmentation - by drones or mortar fire. There are different cases, of course, but fragmented bones usually need a few operations to heal properly and then many months to recover. And that requires hospital and rehab center capacity (in other words, money).
If you have a chance to talk to UA soldiers, then take your time and ask drone operators why they target wounded soldiers.
It's not like that drone operators see plenty of enemy soldiers / targets and they can choose which to hit. Often, they have to search intensively to find some. So, they hit what's possible.
Ukraine is in a war where it looses more POW compared to the Russians. The Russians have 15k POW and Ukraine only 2.5k POW. So Ukraine should make some efforts to ensure that its infantryman are not shot, tortured or decapitated by Russians angry on Ukrainian drone operators.
Ukraine should allow the Russians to take back their wounded or dead soldiers. The article for Achilles unit mentioned Russian bones near a drone bunker. So the Russian bodies were allowed to rot and still were not collected for burial or exchange.
Ukraine regularly captures Russian soldiers. Those soldiers are no longer threats. They provide them with medical care. They even bring back Ukrainians during exchanges. If Ukraine cannot capture a Russin then it eliminates threats.
Russians are going to kill or not kill regardless of what Ukraine does. In July, 2022, they gathered POWs, mostly from Mariupol, in Olenivka prison and detonated a bomb inside the detention area, killing around 60 and wounding maybe 100. These actions happen independently of any Ukrainian actions.
Ukrainian POWs are regularly starved and tortured. Ukrainian citizens in the occupied territories are regularly tortured and killed, among other things.
The Russians don't care about their wounded or dead. This has been documented repeatedly. Their actions range from shooting wounded who couldn't walk to forcing wounded back into combat. I can't tell you have many videos I've seen of Russians walking behind the front line showing off their unburied dead. You can make money by not reporting the dead, either by continuing to collect his pay or by not paying death benefits to his family.
Some Russians don't even care about themselves. I've seen over a hundred videos of them shooting themselves or asking a friend to shoot them.
Ukraine eliminates threats. Russians act like Russians.
Ukraine captures few prisoners compared to the Russians.
The Russian soldiers are not automatons or animals and can understand a good surrender offer.
Somehow they prefer to kill themselves many times under FPV attacks or infantry attack.
Bucha and Orlenka are 2 strange episodes but there many other where the Russians behaved decently. Azov prisoners were returned to Ukraine. Ukrainian civilians were allowed to go back to Ukraine. Ukrainian children were returned to their relatives.
Ukraine can choose to encourage decent behavior instead of sadistic videos.
This happens but rarely, usually UAV opetrators, SOF and foreign mercenaries/volunteers suffer.
As per Olenivka - we have controversial evidences from both sides. Russia is very big and if you want to "finish off" UA prisoners - you can make it deep in Siberia, not near the UA border.
After all, UA Patriot SAMs downed RU IL-76 with UA prisoners. In the same manner, HIMARS could strike Olenivka.
As per Bucha....let's wait for the war to end and see some third party investigation.
If you don’t evacuate the wounded soldiers the cost equation shifts….move on their own is relative. You are not lightly wounded missing a leg, but you might be able to move either way crutches. If you didn’t surrender I would kill you if I was a defending soldier.
"A reader recently complained about Ukrainian drone operators attacking wounded Russian soldiers because it was against the Geneva Convention."
Rights and duties. The reader most likely was never in a comprehensive situation, where it was his duty to get shot at. Sadly this situation happens all the time, where the ones writing the laws or "fighting" for rights are not the same ones fulfilling the duties that derive from those rights.
"A reader recently complained about Ukrainian drone operators attacking wounded Russian soldiers because it was against the Geneva Convention. Since he was safe in his home, the concept of an existential fight didn’t register with the reader and allowing a wounded soldier to heal and attack again seemed proper to him. In an absurd example showing the need to attack wounded Russians that haven’t surrendered, Russians on crutches were sent to occupy positions on the front line 3 km southwest from Novotroitske. Presumably, the reader would allow them to occupy defensive positions because they were already wounded. Fortunately, the Ukrainian defenders made a logical choice in the world of reality and attacked them with drones."
The reader was correct. Unless the wounded soldiers were still armed they were no longer legitimate targets under the Geneva Conventions. However 'safe in his home' that commenter and I are that is the law.
The IDF has used the term 'existential fight' to justify indiscriminate bombings of humanitarian areas, schools, hospitals, mosques, civilian infrastructure, churches, etc. in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, etc. It justifies killing unarmed men of 'military age' in Gaza and children who throw rocks at armored humvees.
Now on the other hand, if a man on crutches or even a quadriplegic is able to man and is manning a weapons post then he is a legitimate target.
Thanks Don & Tom.
Re the drone strike this morning on “factory”, well I don’t think that a concentrated campaign means trying to strike one type of targets 100%, all the time. But … there appeared photos that SBU hit a fuel tank (empty) at the airplane (repair) factory! So actually what they tried is just to have another “bavovna” for the social media and that’s it. How you damage an aircraft factory by hitting a fuel tank!? I understand that an airport or refinery without its adjacent fuel tanks will stop working but an aircraft manufacturing/repairing factory where the needs for fuel and its storage are much lower …
But it’s good that now Ukrainian drones can reach at will Kazan and Tatarstan. Lots of oil and chemical facilities there if Ukraine has enough drones.
Interesting to see even North Korean AA assets being deployed...or in this case deployed then destroyed by their own side but still 🤷🏼♂️.
It does indicate a shortage that needs to be filled.
Is there also some shortage on missiles for SAMs or just not enough radars and launchers?
I only have fragments of data for stockpiles and production. I read in a few place that Russia had 8,000 S300 missiles in 2022. but last April Zelensky said they had 10,000. They produced about 3,000 launchers and had around 800 active in 2017, but I don't know how many might have been pulled from storage.
I don't know how many S400 missiles they have but it won't be as many as the S300 missiles. A lot of reports suggested that there were 56 full S400 systems before the war. And then there are the extra launchers and other components that are in addition to the complete systems. I took a lot at the situation back in June.
https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/dons-weekly-24-june-2024-part-6-the
In general terms I think we can say that Russia has a lot of air defense systems and missiles, they're losing components at a faster rate than they can replace them, Ukraine's strategic drone production is increasing and Russia is a big country, so they have to choose what they want to defend and how well they want to defend it.
Spending drones on wounded russians to finish them seems like a waste to me, unless they are just lightly wounded and can move on their own. There are accounts that a badly wounded soldier is more expensive than a dead one because he has to be evacuated and then treated for a long time. Though that might not really be the case for russians, but still I doubt that a soldier with broken legs or damaged internal organs can be of any use in a trench, not to say about assaults.
The most common wound from a drone is fragmentation. If they heal from fragmentation wounds they will just have to be killed again later.
The cost to kill one soldier is high even if you subtract pay, logistics and other factors and just focus on the weapons used. A single 155 mm round cost $3000 these days and it takes more than one shell to kill one person, on average. Ukraine has enough drones to expend 2-3 on each soldier at about $400 each.
I've been at the hospital and I talked to the guys with legs damaged by fragmentation - by drones or mortar fire. There are different cases, of course, but fragmented bones usually need a few operations to heal properly and then many months to recover. And that requires hospital and rehab center capacity (in other words, money).
If you have a chance to talk to UA soldiers, then take your time and ask drone operators why they target wounded soldiers.
It's not like that drone operators see plenty of enemy soldiers / targets and they can choose which to hit. Often, they have to search intensively to find some. So, they hit what's possible.
Unless it is "Ah, the battery is low anyway - let me at least hit that non-dying bastard" case, that seems like a waste of a drone to me.
But I believe I'll have lots of opportunities to talk to drone operators in a few months, so I'll clear it out then.
Do that and if possible give us some insights from your talks!
The Russian soldiers have a habit of killing POWs.
Leaving their wounded alone might make the Russian officers less eager to kill Ukrainian POW.
In March, 2022, Ukraine wasn't using drones on the front line. Bucha happened anyway.
Ukraine is in a war where it looses more POW compared to the Russians. The Russians have 15k POW and Ukraine only 2.5k POW. So Ukraine should make some efforts to ensure that its infantryman are not shot, tortured or decapitated by Russians angry on Ukrainian drone operators.
Ukraine should allow the Russians to take back their wounded or dead soldiers. The article for Achilles unit mentioned Russian bones near a drone bunker. So the Russian bodies were allowed to rot and still were not collected for burial or exchange.
Ukraine regularly captures Russian soldiers. Those soldiers are no longer threats. They provide them with medical care. They even bring back Ukrainians during exchanges. If Ukraine cannot capture a Russin then it eliminates threats.
Russians are going to kill or not kill regardless of what Ukraine does. In July, 2022, they gathered POWs, mostly from Mariupol, in Olenivka prison and detonated a bomb inside the detention area, killing around 60 and wounding maybe 100. These actions happen independently of any Ukrainian actions.
Ukrainian POWs are regularly starved and tortured. Ukrainian citizens in the occupied territories are regularly tortured and killed, among other things.
The Russians don't care about their wounded or dead. This has been documented repeatedly. Their actions range from shooting wounded who couldn't walk to forcing wounded back into combat. I can't tell you have many videos I've seen of Russians walking behind the front line showing off their unburied dead. You can make money by not reporting the dead, either by continuing to collect his pay or by not paying death benefits to his family.
Some Russians don't even care about themselves. I've seen over a hundred videos of them shooting themselves or asking a friend to shoot them.
Ukraine eliminates threats. Russians act like Russians.
Ukraine captures few prisoners compared to the Russians.
The Russian soldiers are not automatons or animals and can understand a good surrender offer.
Somehow they prefer to kill themselves many times under FPV attacks or infantry attack.
Bucha and Orlenka are 2 strange episodes but there many other where the Russians behaved decently. Azov prisoners were returned to Ukraine. Ukrainian civilians were allowed to go back to Ukraine. Ukrainian children were returned to their relatives.
Ukraine can choose to encourage decent behavior instead of sadistic videos.
This happens but rarely, usually UAV opetrators, SOF and foreign mercenaries/volunteers suffer.
As per Olenivka - we have controversial evidences from both sides. Russia is very big and if you want to "finish off" UA prisoners - you can make it deep in Siberia, not near the UA border.
After all, UA Patriot SAMs downed RU IL-76 with UA prisoners. In the same manner, HIMARS could strike Olenivka.
As per Bucha....let's wait for the war to end and see some third party investigation.
If you don’t evacuate the wounded soldiers the cost equation shifts….move on their own is relative. You are not lightly wounded missing a leg, but you might be able to move either way crutches. If you didn’t surrender I would kill you if I was a defending soldier.
That's right, considering that russians rarely bother themselves with medical evacuation.
Doesn't finishing wounded soldier a war crime ? Wouldn't be the first one of this war though
If the soldier surrenders - yes, indeed.
Otherwise, even a mortally wounded enemy can still shoot or use a grenade when your medic comes close.
Thanks for the update. Onwards to the next installment!
Thank you so very much.
"A reader recently complained about Ukrainian drone operators attacking wounded Russian soldiers because it was against the Geneva Convention."
Rights and duties. The reader most likely was never in a comprehensive situation, where it was his duty to get shot at. Sadly this situation happens all the time, where the ones writing the laws or "fighting" for rights are not the same ones fulfilling the duties that derive from those rights.
You have to ask, what were those soldiers doing on crutches in the middle of a field in the first place?
"A reader recently complained about Ukrainian drone operators attacking wounded Russian soldiers because it was against the Geneva Convention. Since he was safe in his home, the concept of an existential fight didn’t register with the reader and allowing a wounded soldier to heal and attack again seemed proper to him. In an absurd example showing the need to attack wounded Russians that haven’t surrendered, Russians on crutches were sent to occupy positions on the front line 3 km southwest from Novotroitske. Presumably, the reader would allow them to occupy defensive positions because they were already wounded. Fortunately, the Ukrainian defenders made a logical choice in the world of reality and attacked them with drones."
The reader was correct. Unless the wounded soldiers were still armed they were no longer legitimate targets under the Geneva Conventions. However 'safe in his home' that commenter and I are that is the law.
The IDF has used the term 'existential fight' to justify indiscriminate bombings of humanitarian areas, schools, hospitals, mosques, civilian infrastructure, churches, etc. in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, etc. It justifies killing unarmed men of 'military age' in Gaza and children who throw rocks at armored humvees.
Now on the other hand, if a man on crutches or even a quadriplegic is able to man and is manning a weapons post then he is a legitimate target.