Don's Weekly, 20 January 2025: Part 1
by Donald Hill (intro by Tom Cooper)
Hello everybody!
It’s Monday and thus the time for the third Don’s Weekly in this year.
Nominally at least, the last week was dominated by reports about the Ukrainian drone- and missile strikes all over south-western Russia, and about related strikes on a Russian Nebo surveillance radar, at least one (probably two) S-400- and few other SAM-systems.
As far as can be assessed by now, at least four POL-depots in the Russian Federation are afire and still burning - some since 14 and 15 January, other two since 17 and 18 January. That part was ‘nice and warm’, until, though as usually, the news of this morning was that the SBU then switched targets to a factory…
As for the Russian campaign of drone- and missile strikes: this is run as well, and meanwhile regularly striking targets in Kyiv, too. The difference is that the number of deployed Shahed/Geran- and similar attack UAVs remains relatively low (about 40-50 per day), while cruise missile strikes are taking place something like ‘once every two weeks’. Of course, ballistic missiles are still deployed ‘at every opportunity’ - and if in no other fashion, then for spreading fake news about one of these killing a ‘Danish F-16-instructor in Kryviy Rih’ around the social media.
I was only surprised this didn’t happen through a hit on a super-secret NATO Base - constructed during the Soviet times, of course - some 900+ metres under the ground. But then I recalled that every fool has something making him/her happy. Thus, let me conclude this introduction in the following fashion: if that is helping the Russian war effort, fine. Let them waste as many missiles and electrons with ‘killing’ another ‘500-1000 Danish F-16-instructors’ as they only can…
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Kursk
Russian attacks this week indicated that Ukraine was able to clear ground west of Malaya Loknya as well as the village of Pogrebki. There seems to have been an attempt to breach the border defenses near Uspenovka that was eliminated. And Su-25’s have now made a few attacks with rockets, a task that was previously reserved for helicopters. The number of UMPK attacks remains much lower than they were back in October.
A Russian MT-LB was destroyed near Uspenovka. Several more armored vehicles were later lost at the same location. It’s possible they were trying to breach the border defenses.
Russia lost over 15 vehicles between Darina and Novoivanovka. A BMD-4 was destroyed 3 km south of Novoivanovka.
Ukraine lost a Bradley in a counter attack southwest of Malaya Loknya.
5 km west of Malaya Loknya, members of the 8th Special Purpose Regiment fought an eight-hour-long battle with North Koreans until they were evacuated.
Russian artillery attacks Ukrainian forces in central Pogrebki. Then they conducted TOS-1 thermobaric attacks on the northwest and southeast corners of the village.
A Russian artillery attack in Cherkasskoe Porechnoe.
The Russian airstrike hits 2 km northwest of Guyevo.
There is a Russian report with a blurry video that says a “a Western-supplied air defense radar system” was destroyed. The still images suggest that it might actually be a North Korean air defense system. The location of the attack was not provided.
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Kharkiv
A Ukrainian squad enters Hlyboke under covering fire. At the end of the video, Russians throw a demo charge into a basement stairway. Hopefully, Ukrainian soldiers were no longer in there because it was an indefensible position from within the basement.
The same is true for Russians hiding in basements. If the approaches to the position aren’t covered by fire then the position becomes a death trap. This demolition took place near the southern edge of the wasteland, only 250 meters from the aggregate plant.
A border guard unit captured six Russians east of Vovchansk.
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Kupyansk-Svatove
The Russians were able to increase their control of Dvorichna and now fully control the eastern half of the village. 4 km west of the village, a Ukrainian APC runs over a mine.
Three kilometers to the south of Dvorichna, the Russians did not appear to expand their river crossing this week.
A Russian gun is destroyed 9 km behind the front lines.
South of Pishchane Russia made small gains with widespread attacks countered by drones.
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Terny
2500 meters west of Ivanivka, a Ukrainian BMP was destroyed. Ukraine shelled Russian positions just outside the village.
The 63rd Brigade eliminates Russian drones with shotguns.
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Bakhmut
Russian targets in the town were destroyed.
Russian soldiers take control of the refactory plant. The Russians bombarded Ukrainian positions a couple blocks south of the plant. Soon after, they assaulted in the same location and Ukraine fought back.
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Toretsk
Ukrainian drones attack Russian targets that continued to make gains but at a much smaller rate than the previous week. Russians in a treeline were shelled.
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Pokrovsk
Russia continues to advance west of Pokrovsk, taking both Pishchane and Kotlyne. To the east, they also continue attacking towards Yelyzavetivka.
Leopards driven by new crews continue to be destroyed, this time in Pokrovsk.
A Ukrainian air strike hit a building in Novohrodivka.
A Russian column of five vehicles moved on Yelyzavetivka. It was engaged 1500 meters south of the village with artillery and drones. The assault managed to reach the village but the vehicles were eliminated one by one.
A Russian assault 4 km north of Vozdvyzhenka is met with Ukrainian fire.
Another set of Russian reconnaissance drones were eliminated.
The commander of “DaVinci Wolves”, a separate battalion, said that in almost all cases they’re able to hold their positions and are only forced to retreat when new units to their left and right retreat and his own unit is threatened with encirclement. He adds that even when battalions are detached from an inexperienced new brigade and attached to another experienced brigade they are a liability because of poor training and leadership.
The attrition of Russian vehicles and personnel due to artillery and drones is high but not always visible. Last week included a map that highlighted a road with 22 destroyed vehicles. This 3.5 minute video shows the same road being traveled in the same time period. Besides the dead and wounded on the side of the road, there were 36 destroyed vehicles, some of them still burning.
Russian soldiers in many units have long complained about being sent on assaults before they recovered from wounds. This practice evolved because of huge losses, a shortage of replacements, dishonesty in reporting to superiors and bureaucratic mismanagement. A reader recently complained about Ukrainian drone operators attacking wounded Russian soldiers because it was against the Geneva Convention. Since he was safe in his home, the concept of an existential fight didn’t register with the reader and allowing a wounded soldier to heal and attack again seemed proper to him. In an absurd example showing the need to attack wounded Russians that haven’t surrendered, Russians on crutches were sent to occupy positions on the front line 3 km southwest from Novotroitske. Presumably, the reader would allow them to occupy defensive positions because they were already wounded. Fortunately, the Ukrainian defenders made a logical choice in the world of reality and attacked them with drones.
***
(…to be continued…)
But it’s good that now Ukrainian drones can reach at will Kazan and Tatarstan. Lots of oil and chemical facilities there if Ukraine has enough drones.
Spending drones on wounded russians to finish them seems like a waste to me, unless they are just lightly wounded and can move on their own. There are accounts that a badly wounded soldier is more expensive than a dead one because he has to be evacuated and then treated for a long time. Though that might not really be the case for russians, but still I doubt that a soldier with broken legs or damaged internal organs can be of any use in a trench, not to say about assaults.