It seems that everyone is literally "blinded" by current drone technology development. We tend to forget that drones are extremely soft targets. They can be easily fought by even cheaper means then they are. Amors and speed crafts appeared for a reason in the past.
With fully implementing existing anti drone technology, drone swarms, while could become a norm, would not be so dreaded.
And also with relative simplicity of organising armor protection, people would get back inside those. And then after a turn of spiral "normal" doctrine would be back, though significantly extended and updated with requirements of the time.
The most significant change though, needs to come in a multisensor recon. Where litteraly one would not be able to hide any aspect of military activity 100-150 km deep from the frontline. And then whoever wins that "middle sky" wins the whole battle, because of being able to interdict logistics 100 km deep.
So I suspect we might see a few changes of approach, and technology leaps before this war is over.
"with the relative simplicity of organising armor protection, people would get back inside those."
This is ignoring the fact that even main battle tanks have proven vulnerable to drones. Increasing the armour thickness has penalties of range, maneuverability and limiting ground conditions suitable for such equipment
"They can be easily fought by even cheaper means"
What are these cheaper means that can be easily used?
As drones fly faster and higher so the anti-drone capability gets more complex and expensive
so, you're saying that basically the same development is under way, as happened after the introduction of firearms? at first, armour became obsolete; later, new forms of armour emerged.
Yes, exactly. And not only armors, but air assets too. For example, hundreds of aircrafts could be in air during WW2 at once. With current technology you can do mid range UAV bombers, that would pack a punch from 2km height, like really 100kg bombs. They would be much less expensive then missile based ADs, so you need to adapt AD concept too.
Sure, but Ukraine could realise that potential, asking for the right technologies and pushing for cooperation in that regards. Just needs a bit more holistic concept of the victory.
Well, if Russia invades the Baltic countries or Finland, I suppose that will mean the mass introduction of drone warfare... probably with Ukraine help in production and tactics
Well, any further aggression is best prevented, by building technological cooperation with European countries, that would give Ukraine (and Europe in turn) such an edge that any further aggression is unthinkable.
Europe's various companies have know how that with a help of Ukraine's engineers will allow for a needed leap forward.
For that Europe only needs to understand – co-operation is the key. And needs to be significantly improved. For now in many cases each one is taking care of their own turf, and as a result loosing collectively. Eurosceptics are on the reign.
Some (likely not full) "errata" for the auto-translation of Yigal Levin's post:
"you cannot deploy and concentrate more forces than your mouth."
- more forces than a company (rota)
"pulling out "arrows" (Ukrainians call it "pysunami")."
- You can maybe translate this as "pricks" (as in "Pudding is a ***", but a more "cute/childish" version). :) And if anyone cares, the word ending in "ami" is objective case from "pisiun" (sing.) & "pisiuny" (pl.).
"and for command it is underground care and support for wired and satellite communication"
- moving underground and relying on [wired/sat comms]
"all-round military combat"
- combined arms (= общевойсковой бой)
"and controlled combat AI"
- controlled BY combat AI
"this will result in the unnecessary number of operators."
Можливо, дай Бог ми про це дізнаємося пізніше, я буду вірити в це, що саме в цей час щось робиться в саме цього напряму. І прийде час збирати жнива!
І мене тішить- що всі хто був залучений до операції павутини не злили інформацію фсб, значить Малюк вправно виконує свою роботу, але я не є військовим експертом, і моя думка всього лише простої людини, яка може помилятися.
The part with BG Drapatyi gives me somehow the taste of a cheap soap opera. IMHO (of course I also be completely wrong) there is a lot more going on in the background without being mentioned.
probably this attack on training facilities is a pretext to leave the service, while there are deeper problems in the higher echelons of Ukraine armed forces?
On the subject of drones Haaretz has had two articles recently.
Last week there was one the noted a potential paradigm shift in naval warfare based on Ukraine's successful adaptation of air to air missiles for launch from a naval drone and downing two Russian Su-30s.
The current article reports that Israel has intercepted multiple drones since the start of the Gaza 'campaign' using a laser defence system operating at 10-30 KW. It is claimed to be able to take out mortar projectiles and short range - under 8 km - rockets as well as drones.
Of course the second article is based on a press release from the IDF so...
One presumes Israel is working hard on anti-drone defences as it continues to strike and destroy Syria's remaining stocks of conventional weapons (all while meeting with representatives of the new government to discuss 'security arrangements').
From what I remember of the discussion here I wonder how many laser units Israel has and how many simultaneous targets were involved in the successful engagements?
Press releases on new weapons systems tend to be a bit rosy in their pronouncements and short on details of shortcomings...
It seems that everyone is literally "blinded" by current drone technology development. We tend to forget that drones are extremely soft targets. They can be easily fought by even cheaper means then they are. Amors and speed crafts appeared for a reason in the past.
With fully implementing existing anti drone technology, drone swarms, while could become a norm, would not be so dreaded.
And also with relative simplicity of organising armor protection, people would get back inside those. And then after a turn of spiral "normal" doctrine would be back, though significantly extended and updated with requirements of the time.
The most significant change though, needs to come in a multisensor recon. Where litteraly one would not be able to hide any aspect of military activity 100-150 km deep from the frontline. And then whoever wins that "middle sky" wins the whole battle, because of being able to interdict logistics 100 km deep.
So I suspect we might see a few changes of approach, and technology leaps before this war is over.
"with the relative simplicity of organising armor protection, people would get back inside those."
This is ignoring the fact that even main battle tanks have proven vulnerable to drones. Increasing the armour thickness has penalties of range, maneuverability and limiting ground conditions suitable for such equipment
"They can be easily fought by even cheaper means"
What are these cheaper means that can be easily used?
As drones fly faster and higher so the anti-drone capability gets more complex and expensive
Read my substack, there is all details described, and many other.
so, you're saying that basically the same development is under way, as happened after the introduction of firearms? at first, armour became obsolete; later, new forms of armour emerged.
Yes, exactly. And not only armors, but air assets too. For example, hundreds of aircrafts could be in air during WW2 at once. With current technology you can do mid range UAV bombers, that would pack a punch from 2km height, like really 100kg bombs. They would be much less expensive then missile based ADs, so you need to adapt AD concept too.
I hope so.
Meanwhile, NATO is simply not moving in this regards. The mass of generals can't comprehend FPVs, even less so take them seriously.
Sure, but Ukraine could realise that potential, asking for the right technologies and pushing for cooperation in that regards. Just needs a bit more holistic concept of the victory.
That's hard when so many innovations are coming from the ground up. It's difficult to create a holistic grassroots effort.
Yes, this exactly is a problem. Or let's say, a current hurdle that needs to be overcome.
Well, if Russia invades the Baltic countries or Finland, I suppose that will mean the mass introduction of drone warfare... probably with Ukraine help in production and tactics
Well, any further aggression is best prevented, by building technological cooperation with European countries, that would give Ukraine (and Europe in turn) such an edge that any further aggression is unthinkable.
Europe's various companies have know how that with a help of Ukraine's engineers will allow for a needed leap forward.
For that Europe only needs to understand – co-operation is the key. And needs to be significantly improved. For now in many cases each one is taking care of their own turf, and as a result loosing collectively. Eurosceptics are on the reign.
Some (likely not full) "errata" for the auto-translation of Yigal Levin's post:
"you cannot deploy and concentrate more forces than your mouth."
- more forces than a company (rota)
"pulling out "arrows" (Ukrainians call it "pysunami")."
- You can maybe translate this as "pricks" (as in "Pudding is a ***", but a more "cute/childish" version). :) And if anyone cares, the word ending in "ami" is objective case from "pisiun" (sing.) & "pisiuny" (pl.).
"and for command it is underground care and support for wired and satellite communication"
- moving underground and relying on [wired/sat comms]
"all-round military combat"
- combined arms (= общевойсковой бой)
"and controlled combat AI"
- controlled BY combat AI
"this will result in the unnecessary number of operators."
- result in not needing many operators
"“man-machine” spike"
- "man-machine" joint/seam/combination etc
Тепер питання виникає, цілком дивне, але!
Коли почнуть тонути російські підводні човни?!
Ще пару років війни і я б не здивувався що в один день на дні залягли відпочити.
...that would be 'cool'... but also a waste of time.
I can't understand why can't this heroic, super-smart SBU start a man-hunt for the Russian Shahed/Geran- and Iskander-units?
Можливо, дай Бог ми про це дізнаємося пізніше, я буду вірити в це, що саме в цей час щось робиться в саме цього напряму. І прийде час збирати жнива!
І мене тішить- що всі хто був залучений до операції павутини не злили інформацію фсб, значить Малюк вправно виконує свою роботу, але я не є військовим експертом, і моя думка всього лише простої людини, яка може помилятися.
The part with BG Drapatyi gives me somehow the taste of a cheap soap opera. IMHO (of course I also be completely wrong) there is a lot more going on in the background without being mentioned.
probably this attack on training facilities is a pretext to leave the service, while there are deeper problems in the higher echelons of Ukraine armed forces?
On the subject of drones Haaretz has had two articles recently.
Last week there was one the noted a potential paradigm shift in naval warfare based on Ukraine's successful adaptation of air to air missiles for launch from a naval drone and downing two Russian Su-30s.
The current article reports that Israel has intercepted multiple drones since the start of the Gaza 'campaign' using a laser defence system operating at 10-30 KW. It is claimed to be able to take out mortar projectiles and short range - under 8 km - rockets as well as drones.
Of course the second article is based on a press release from the IDF so...
One presumes Israel is working hard on anti-drone defences as it continues to strike and destroy Syria's remaining stocks of conventional weapons (all while meeting with representatives of the new government to discuss 'security arrangements').
From what I remember of the discussion here I wonder how many laser units Israel has and how many simultaneous targets were involved in the successful engagements?
Press releases on new weapons systems tend to be a bit rosy in their pronouncements and short on details of shortcomings...
The UK have developed an anti drone weapon (RF DEW) that fries circuit boards, which will also take out fibre optic drones.