The jury is still out on the bombing campaign by ZSU. It has created more cheerful videos with a “babovna” than real shortages. If sustained, probably it will start to bite. On the other side, every raid on a factory, is one that is not on an airfield. I hope ZSU/GUR finds the balance somewhere
A single drone that passes the defense may damage a single jet at most. While a single drone that passes the defense of an oil refinery may damage the crucial equipment which is very hard to replace given the sanctions.
Not to mention 1 drone ( usually 5-8 passes and hit the tower ) can burn down entire tower with many tons of fuel causing dsmage of lets say 100 millions per tower to repair and half a year of time when factory stops.
Ukraine can only live in peace if the regime in Russia changes. With hitting refineries you give way to two possibilities:
a.) income of certain oligarchs drop so that they start that from the top
b.) farmers can't seed ofr harvest because of a lack of fuel and that start some uproar
Destroying air assets is like killing Confederate soldiers in the Civil War. As long as there are people in the back supporting and pushing more soldiers forward, the killing will continue. The Civil War was ended by General Sherman putting an aisle of devastation through Georgia and Carolina. That ended the support and the willing to fight. Not nice, but hey, in both occassions the other side got a declaration of war...
Having your own opinion and disagreeing with any killing anywhere doesn't mean you have to be a Putin fan... you just have your own opinion. Your experience with 40 years of communist rule, 20 years of occupation of the Czechoslovakia (including Slovakia), and 30 years of operating in a "western-style democracy" as well as Munich 1938 has taught you critical thinking.
If I don't agree with you, it doesn't mean, that I am an enemy or friend of your enemy. I have just my own opinion.... If I can accept your opinion (that saving peace is sending more guns to Ukraine), please try to accept my opinion, that guns will never bring peace. Do you copy and understand?
If i kick you several times into your anchor, and say sorry, than I am obliged to accept results of my behaviour... We in Slovakia are saying, that Russia is agressor and Ukraine is victim, but Ukraine is not innocent victim....
negotiation and diplomacy... same situation with Israel and Palestine... but sending guns IMHO is not good solution... and believe me, I not fun of Putin nor Biden/Trump/Bush...
War is wasting of life, money, materials and other resources... but what is your solution of any war?
Anton, souhlasím v tom naše pře není, vše skončí u stolu při jednání diplomatů. Ale v jaké pozici se nejlépe vyjednává a v jaké jsou pozici obě strany? Dále nebylo již vyjednávání před cca 10 lety, kdy se Rusko stavělo do role nezucastneneho zastánce utlacovanych Rusů na UA? Nebylo zde již vyjednávání o jaderných zbraních UA a jejich likvidaci v 90.letech? V jakých pozicích byly obě strany na těchto jednáních a po nich, co bylo dojednano a jak to celé dopadlo?
Zmínil jste Mnichov 38, v jaké pozici jsme byli a jak vše dopadlo a proč?
Tímto se loučím, pokud mi odpovíte rád si přečtu, ale stačit mi bude i pouhé zamyšlení
P.S. Válka je hrozná a nikomu ji nepřeji, mír má obrovskou hodnotu, škoda je každého života, nejvíc je mi líto těch kteří si účast ve válce nezvolili a asi tušíte která strana má více takových zmarenych životů (civilistů včetně dětí ale i vojáků kteří ještě nedávno žili normálním zivotem)
I believe you when you say that you are not a fan of Putin, and I believe your opinions are your own shaped by your experiences. I understand your that your point is that gun never brings peace. I will however disagree with you. First any peace may not be good. It would of course be possible for Ukraine to roll over and Ask for unconditional surrender. Become a part of Russia, and then see your resources being drafted, your culture destroyed, becoming part of a corrupt morallære deranged system… and now if they submit now accept the revenge that will follow immediately and over a long period. Yes, maybe it could be called peace. (Russia wouldnt actually have to sur for anything, they could just go home.) So peace in itself is not allwats enough. They make a dessert and call it peace…Second, while guns may not make everlasting peace they could make a long lasting period. South Korea was defended by weapons. The parties agreed to a cease fire; which has held for more than 70 years. Guns again. Of course we could agree that negotiations could produce something Even better, but then all parties needs to really be accepting of negotiations. Currently there are so many powers out there that are not accepting.
To diplomacy you need 2 sides which want agreement. If 1 side is feeling stronger no good agreement for 2 side can be done. If we make 2 side enough strong then they can maybe make some agreement in the future. Without weapons from west UA cannot make any aggrement, because russia now accept only complet resignation.
so more guns for ukraine, more dead people on both sides... excellent solution, great job.... Thank you very much for discussion, but take into consideration, that I as a Slovak, I am not fun of Putin, nor Biden... I have just critical thinking...
So, following your logic, now is time to send guns to Palestine? Because USA are sending guns to Israel, so we need to have both sides same strenght to start any negotiation?
I am sure everyone here wants peace and everyone feels sorry for the unnecessary deaths. Supporting Ukraine doesn't mean 'cheering the war". We had this talk before. But have you heard of something called "Budapest Memorandum"? Have you heard about Russia deploying nuclear warheads ih Belarus in 2023? Your theory might be good. In practice it is just wishful thinking. Last but not least, everybody needs allies. Even mighty Russia, which is helped by Iran and Noth Korea with weapons and by China with money. The wishful thinking neutrality might bring you nothing in the end. Don't forget that The Netherlands was a neutral country. It was occupied by Hitler in a few days. I am giving you this example to be clear that not only Slovakia was a victim.
You know, man, fuck you! What Ukraine is guilty for? Just for being Ukraine? Just because we know what ruzzia is for centuries? What was the guilt of those victims from Butcha?
You're fucking moron. You're from one of the most corrupted country in Europe (however I doubt you're from Slovakia, you're just fucking katzapian troll from Ust-Zalupinsk) and you say Ukraine is guilty. I hope you and your family will feel the same what Ukrainians feel for already 2 years. Dickhead
# 3 read like the other 2 some very interesting and good information, thanks Don I always look forward to your reports. Just maybe we'll get past the ultra-right wing republicans and get and aid bill passed
I always thought that the aid bill would eventually pass but I didn't know when or how. This is a unique situation for the MAGA folk to screw things up. If the Republicans had a bigger majority, or if the Democrats controlled the House, none of this would have happened. We'll see where it goes from here.
When it is firing 2,000 rounds a day or less it has to choose only the most threatening targets to fire upon. The rest had to be dealt with by drones, vehicular fire or infantry, and this means that here and there they would have to retreat. It also meant that when Russia made such a large committment to Avdiivka they would have to pull out of the entire city.
When they were firing 6,000 rounds a day during the offensive, they did a tremendous amount of damage to Russia and very nearly broke through the lines. A lot of Russian artillery was destroyed but they had enough to cause a lot of Ukrainian casualties. And when Russians raced reinforcements from other regions to plug the holes, Ukraine didn't have enough rounds to eliminate them. Russia had more people than Ukraine had ammo.
If Ukraine had enough ammo to fire 30,000 rounds a day, you would start seeing the destruction of Russian units on a level that NATO plans and practices all the time. Russian units in a defensive line would cease to exist. Russian reinforcements to plug those holes would be wiped out. NATO air superiority for the deep battle is obviously a tremendous asset, but they pounded enemy forces with artillery.
Ukraine doesn't need air superiority to win. It needs plenty of ammo.
Consider the videos where Ukrainian artillery would fire one round at a time, trying to maximize the impact of each round. Contrast that with a NATO mission: A single round is fired and if it's off target then it is corrected. It may take a few rounds until it's close enough. Then all six guns in that battery will fire at those coordinates for maybe 3-6 rounds per gun. That could be up to 40 rounds for a single fire mission when Ukraine might fire five rounds. The Ukrainian artillery might be enough to break up a small attack and then drones would chase down the survivors. A NATO mission would destroy that same attack, all because they had enough ammo.
Here's a rate of fire exercise for a 105mm gun. They fire 24 rounds, one after another. You practice something because you might do it in combat: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UN84r_4GTdQ
This is combat footage. Do you think Ukraine would have liked this level of support in the defense of Bakhmut or Avdiivka? Or the during the offensive at Robotyne? Each of those rockets is $180k: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lzCWeCJMxFU
Airpower is very useful for the deep battle, but the M31 rocket of HIMARS or MLRS travels 80km. You can do quite a lot of damage 80 km behind enemy lines.
But all these engagements were in wars that were short, because the conventional armies of the enemy were overwhelmed, or there were just a few battles over a long period of time. US and NATO production of ammo was quite high during the Cold War, but it was reduced to meet the lower demands of lopsided conventional wars or assymetrical wars against insurgents. Today, NATO could not even fire 30,000 rounds a day for an entire year because they would need to produce 11 million rounds a year to sustain that rate of fire.
So, no, Ukraine doesn't have enough ammo based on what the West could theoretically provide. Based on the rates of fire that NATO trains for. And while it can survive with 2,000 rounds a day, the minimum you want for a defense is about 5,000 rounds per day. The minimum you want for an offensive is 15,000 rounds for day. Zaluzhny said he'd be satisfied with 12,000 rounds a day back in September.
But Ukraine makes do with what they have, and they will have more each month as the West (slowly) ramps up its production capacity.
I really like sharing that SBU staged bullshit of RF elections. Common Don you can do it better, everyone know that that is crap. same as 14 shoot down S 34 in a week ....btw what happened with the spoke person of UA AF?
For the sake of keeping deluded informed share pls a few more pro RF channels and post more videos of destruction of equipment, people or how the mobilization is going ( BOBT, T, Aydan, Zlaty etc... for the beginning). Was hoping that will not write this to you but for the past few month you are trying to make from black and bleak narrative something that is shiny and pinky. So get a grip , dig a bit more and write something more objective.
Now lets deluders to crucify me ...if that is your agenda you won
How does sharing info from well known vatniks any way constructive? I mean you managed to name three of some of the worst examples. I know there is this impression that two extremes somehow even out, but it really doesn't, not in reporting. Don also posts about Ukrainian losses, and in this very post talks about the bad decisions the 47th have been making and the losses it's taking. I agree compared to Tom his tone is more optimistic in general, but the stuff he shares are all legit and well-sourced.
As for the planes, pretty sure everyone has been cautious about the claims of downed airplanes without proof, albeit OSINT guys have confirmed 6 planes that never returned to their bases, so there's that.
And do you think a social media videos of individuals being taken in for draft evasion is evocative of the general state of Ukrainian mobilisation? Let's disregard for now how same thing happened in the past to every draft dodger, as it is an illegal act no matter how much they don't like it. A couple, or even a couple dozen cases a week really isn't that much in the big picture. Like you could probably gather hundreds, maybe even thousands such vids of the past two year, so what? Thats still just a drop in a country the size of Ukraine.
The real problem is that the leadership is unwilling to extend the legal limits and have been debating the exact changes to the mobilisation law when they should have done it a year ago and have trained soldiers ready. That's a real problem that should be discussed, but sharing pics reposted by russian tg channels about some guys taken in isn't contributing.
You should read again all of your justifications ,, or better few more times to understand that the situation is more darker that portrayed by Don or Tom. I am talking about sources that are posting videos , combat footages so not much of to dispute them. That is what Don and Tom are lacking in their reporting....for 100 of times we read how xx VDV brigad4 was mouled, decimated , rebuilded for the past 2 years while the situation is similar on both ends. Critical thinking is missing. You and me arguing here will not change the course of the
Why are all pro-Russians convinced that they are "objective", "neutral", "sane", and the only ones knowing "the truth?" Rhetoric question, of course. Also, all of them can explain why Ukraine is bad, or the USA.. I am still waiting from them to explain why is Russia better.
And I am asking you why only the Russian side is the "objective" one to you. First of all, is the Russian side objective at all? Honest answer, please. Russians are belligerant, too, how could they be "objective"? This is a no brainer. have followed Russian media in 2022. It was a complete lost of time, as I don't buy their propaganda, which of course is a must. For those buying it, maybe it's great. I am Romanian and Russian propaganda only reminds me of communism and Ceausescu.
Thanks Don/Tom. All i see in Mike Johnson's actions is delaying; a pre-election enacting of Trump's zero support policy. If he is serious about his Christianity, I think he should try read more Bonhoeffer.
Always a good write up. Thanks for the hard work. But I have a question for the aviation types out there. Russia is ramping up the use of it's AF and using the glide bombs. The number of sorties are ranging from 50/60 to 100 a day. While that is pretty minor to the 350 so we had per day in Afghanistan, it's focused and for once they have a plan. This isn't good, but with the increased flights how is their OR rate and fleet doing? Russian gear wears out. It wears out faster than Western. It's also not really designed for repair or replacement versus being used and thrown away. Given that a lot of the RU aircraft had parts coming from Ukraine, and obviously those parts ain't coming anymore, and that Russian maintenance is not exactly on par with Western AFs, how long can they keep this rate up? They have aircraft, and they have some spares sure, but at the rate of usage they are currently running, how long can they go before we start seeing things slow down?
I doubt anybody outside VKS and three-letter agencies has enough information for any reasonable estimate.
Maybe Perun in Youtube has some data to interpolate, but that's uncharted territory (the military-industrial complex in Russia is quite complex and more opaque than the western one).
Quite unhappy to read about the misadventures of 47th Brigade.
Let's hope that they'll become a more professional and capable unit (wasting artillery personnel as infantry was a terrible waste, if you ask me - but I am not Ukrainian).
That video about the regimental artillery shooting at Baghdad was quite awesome (cannot even imagine how the receivers or all this firepower felt). Maybe the extra artillery rounds to arrive at Ukraine will balance things out a bit (and extra barrels and spare parts etc - such a war of attrition requires also maintenance).
I am mystified why Ukraine parliament and the government are still debating the mobilization law after two years of war. I saw this half-hour video, and it's apparent that the old veterans are quite bitter about the lack of fresh recruits and armed personnel to relieve them. Fighting for 2+ years is destructive for the body and soul
(about these heavy bombs, I don't know how Ukraine can stop the VKS onslaught - the F-16s will arrive no sooner than the summer, and land-based air defense cannot cover every square meter of the front *and* cities in the same time)
Thanks Don,
The jury is still out on the bombing campaign by ZSU. It has created more cheerful videos with a “babovna” than real shortages. If sustained, probably it will start to bite. On the other side, every raid on a factory, is one that is not on an airfield. I hope ZSU/GUR finds the balance somewhere
The airfields are few and heavily defended.
A single drone that passes the defense may damage a single jet at most. While a single drone that passes the defense of an oil refinery may damage the crucial equipment which is very hard to replace given the sanctions.
Not to mention 1 drone ( usually 5-8 passes and hit the tower ) can burn down entire tower with many tons of fuel causing dsmage of lets say 100 millions per tower to repair and half a year of time when factory stops.
Ukraine can only live in peace if the regime in Russia changes. With hitting refineries you give way to two possibilities:
a.) income of certain oligarchs drop so that they start that from the top
b.) farmers can't seed ofr harvest because of a lack of fuel and that start some uproar
Destroying air assets is like killing Confederate soldiers in the Civil War. As long as there are people in the back supporting and pushing more soldiers forward, the killing will continue. The Civil War was ended by General Sherman putting an aisle of devastation through Georgia and Carolina. That ended the support and the willing to fight. Not nice, but hey, in both occassions the other side got a declaration of war...
Thank you Tom and Don!
The stability billboard is not real. It was made by a Ukrainian designer https://twitter.com/khersondesigner
However the slogan is real. It was used often before the war.
Ah, thanks.
Having your own opinion and disagreeing with any killing anywhere doesn't mean you have to be a Putin fan... you just have your own opinion. Your experience with 40 years of communist rule, 20 years of occupation of the Czechoslovakia (including Slovakia), and 30 years of operating in a "western-style democracy" as well as Munich 1938 has taught you critical thinking.
So what is the solution for permanent peace?
While someone says A should say also B and that is a tiny missing piece of puzzle of the picture offered by by Fico & Orban
when you preffer to stop military aid to defending country how do you suggest to behave to the agressor (a big Smile at the shakehand pictures)?
If I don't agree with you, it doesn't mean, that I am an enemy or friend of your enemy. I have just my own opinion.... If I can accept your opinion (that saving peace is sending more guns to Ukraine), please try to accept my opinion, that guns will never bring peace. Do you copy and understand?
If i kick you several times into your anchor, and say sorry, than I am obliged to accept results of my behaviour... We in Slovakia are saying, that Russia is agressor and Ukraine is victim, but Ukraine is not innocent victim....
Anton, its your right to have an opinion.
Can you suggest a solution how to end this war or any war?
Samozřejmě že máte právo na názor, pokud ale říkáte že posílat zbraně je špatně měl byste říct jaké máte řešení které má šanci u obou stran
negotiation and diplomacy... same situation with Israel and Palestine... but sending guns IMHO is not good solution... and believe me, I not fun of Putin nor Biden/Trump/Bush...
War is wasting of life, money, materials and other resources... but what is your solution of any war?
Anton, souhlasím v tom naše pře není, vše skončí u stolu při jednání diplomatů. Ale v jaké pozici se nejlépe vyjednává a v jaké jsou pozici obě strany? Dále nebylo již vyjednávání před cca 10 lety, kdy se Rusko stavělo do role nezucastneneho zastánce utlacovanych Rusů na UA? Nebylo zde již vyjednávání o jaderných zbraních UA a jejich likvidaci v 90.letech? V jakých pozicích byly obě strany na těchto jednáních a po nich, co bylo dojednano a jak to celé dopadlo?
Zmínil jste Mnichov 38, v jaké pozici jsme byli a jak vše dopadlo a proč?
Tímto se loučím, pokud mi odpovíte rád si přečtu, ale stačit mi bude i pouhé zamyšlení
P.S. Válka je hrozná a nikomu ji nepřeji, mír má obrovskou hodnotu, škoda je každého života, nejvíc je mi líto těch kteří si účast ve válce nezvolili a asi tušíte která strana má více takových zmarenych životů (civilistů včetně dětí ale i vojáků kteří ještě nedávno žili normálním zivotem)
I believe you when you say that you are not a fan of Putin, and I believe your opinions are your own shaped by your experiences. I understand your that your point is that gun never brings peace. I will however disagree with you. First any peace may not be good. It would of course be possible for Ukraine to roll over and Ask for unconditional surrender. Become a part of Russia, and then see your resources being drafted, your culture destroyed, becoming part of a corrupt morallære deranged system… and now if they submit now accept the revenge that will follow immediately and over a long period. Yes, maybe it could be called peace. (Russia wouldnt actually have to sur for anything, they could just go home.) So peace in itself is not allwats enough. They make a dessert and call it peace…Second, while guns may not make everlasting peace they could make a long lasting period. South Korea was defended by weapons. The parties agreed to a cease fire; which has held for more than 70 years. Guns again. Of course we could agree that negotiations could produce something Even better, but then all parties needs to really be accepting of negotiations. Currently there are so many powers out there that are not accepting.
Just our mega corrupted government and similar stuff is speaking such bullshits. Problem is that because of propaganda many people believes to it.
Still waiting for solutions.
P.S. Po slovensky aby si sa nevyhovaral ze si zabudol odpovedat
Stale cakam ako zastavit boje z oboch stran natrvalo , nielen z 1. a s ako tak rozumnou dohodou.
Except diplomacy and negotiation, what is your solution?
To diplomacy you need 2 sides which want agreement. If 1 side is feeling stronger no good agreement for 2 side can be done. If we make 2 side enough strong then they can maybe make some agreement in the future. Without weapons from west UA cannot make any aggrement, because russia now accept only complet resignation.
so more guns for ukraine, more dead people on both sides... excellent solution, great job.... Thank you very much for discussion, but take into consideration, that I as a Slovak, I am not fun of Putin, nor Biden... I have just critical thinking...
So, following your logic, now is time to send guns to Palestine? Because USA are sending guns to Israel, so we need to have both sides same strenght to start any negotiation?
I am sure everyone here wants peace and everyone feels sorry for the unnecessary deaths. Supporting Ukraine doesn't mean 'cheering the war". We had this talk before. But have you heard of something called "Budapest Memorandum"? Have you heard about Russia deploying nuclear warheads ih Belarus in 2023? Your theory might be good. In practice it is just wishful thinking. Last but not least, everybody needs allies. Even mighty Russia, which is helped by Iran and Noth Korea with weapons and by China with money. The wishful thinking neutrality might bring you nothing in the end. Don't forget that The Netherlands was a neutral country. It was occupied by Hitler in a few days. I am giving you this example to be clear that not only Slovakia was a victim.
Also Ukraine was a neutral country in 2014 and was a neutral country in 2022. It didn't prevent Ukraine from being invaded by Russia.
> but Ukraine is not innocent victim
You know, man, fuck you! What Ukraine is guilty for? Just for being Ukraine? Just because we know what ruzzia is for centuries? What was the guilt of those victims from Butcha?
You're fucking moron. You're from one of the most corrupted country in Europe (however I doubt you're from Slovakia, you're just fucking katzapian troll from Ust-Zalupinsk) and you say Ukraine is guilty. I hope you and your family will feel the same what Ukrainians feel for already 2 years. Dickhead
The last link is no longer exists.
Ah, that's too bad. Everything I've read from him was rational and informative but it seems that after I last read his tweets he went on to say something that got him banned. https://twitter.com/Y_Chornomorets/status/1769740745009762595
# 3 read like the other 2 some very interesting and good information, thanks Don I always look forward to your reports. Just maybe we'll get past the ultra-right wing republicans and get and aid bill passed
I always thought that the aid bill would eventually pass but I didn't know when or how. This is a unique situation for the MAGA folk to screw things up. If the Republicans had a bigger majority, or if the Democrats controlled the House, none of this would have happened. We'll see where it goes from here.
I really hated that the MAGA Republicans (ab)used Ukraine as a hostage for their own agenda.
And I thought that the House of cards series was a black satire, not an instruction manual...
Do you have feeling that Ukraine has enough ammunition now?
No, it has never had enough ammo.
When it is firing 2,000 rounds a day or less it has to choose only the most threatening targets to fire upon. The rest had to be dealt with by drones, vehicular fire or infantry, and this means that here and there they would have to retreat. It also meant that when Russia made such a large committment to Avdiivka they would have to pull out of the entire city.
When they were firing 6,000 rounds a day during the offensive, they did a tremendous amount of damage to Russia and very nearly broke through the lines. A lot of Russian artillery was destroyed but they had enough to cause a lot of Ukrainian casualties. And when Russians raced reinforcements from other regions to plug the holes, Ukraine didn't have enough rounds to eliminate them. Russia had more people than Ukraine had ammo.
If Ukraine had enough ammo to fire 30,000 rounds a day, you would start seeing the destruction of Russian units on a level that NATO plans and practices all the time. Russian units in a defensive line would cease to exist. Russian reinforcements to plug those holes would be wiped out. NATO air superiority for the deep battle is obviously a tremendous asset, but they pounded enemy forces with artillery.
Ukraine doesn't need air superiority to win. It needs plenty of ammo.
Consider the videos where Ukrainian artillery would fire one round at a time, trying to maximize the impact of each round. Contrast that with a NATO mission: A single round is fired and if it's off target then it is corrected. It may take a few rounds until it's close enough. Then all six guns in that battery will fire at those coordinates for maybe 3-6 rounds per gun. That could be up to 40 rounds for a single fire mission when Ukraine might fire five rounds. The Ukrainian artillery might be enough to break up a small attack and then drones would chase down the survivors. A NATO mission would destroy that same attack, all because they had enough ammo.
Consider this regimental fire mission the US fired in Iraq. Just one fire mission, all DPICM. Imagine the impacts down range: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eYR-H4Hgoz8
This isn't even combat, just a peacetime firing exercise: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N66erL1Fxio
Here's a rate of fire exercise for a 105mm gun. They fire 24 rounds, one after another. You practice something because you might do it in combat: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UN84r_4GTdQ
This is combat footage. Do you think Ukraine would have liked this level of support in the defense of Bakhmut or Avdiivka? Or the during the offensive at Robotyne? Each of those rockets is $180k: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lzCWeCJMxFU
Airpower is very useful for the deep battle, but the M31 rocket of HIMARS or MLRS travels 80km. You can do quite a lot of damage 80 km behind enemy lines.
But all these engagements were in wars that were short, because the conventional armies of the enemy were overwhelmed, or there were just a few battles over a long period of time. US and NATO production of ammo was quite high during the Cold War, but it was reduced to meet the lower demands of lopsided conventional wars or assymetrical wars against insurgents. Today, NATO could not even fire 30,000 rounds a day for an entire year because they would need to produce 11 million rounds a year to sustain that rate of fire.
So, no, Ukraine doesn't have enough ammo based on what the West could theoretically provide. Based on the rates of fire that NATO trains for. And while it can survive with 2,000 rounds a day, the minimum you want for a defense is about 5,000 rounds per day. The minimum you want for an offensive is 15,000 rounds for day. Zaluzhny said he'd be satisfied with 12,000 rounds a day back in September.
But Ukraine makes do with what they have, and they will have more each month as the West (slowly) ramps up its production capacity.
I really like sharing that SBU staged bullshit of RF elections. Common Don you can do it better, everyone know that that is crap. same as 14 shoot down S 34 in a week ....btw what happened with the spoke person of UA AF?
For the sake of keeping deluded informed share pls a few more pro RF channels and post more videos of destruction of equipment, people or how the mobilization is going ( BOBT, T, Aydan, Zlaty etc... for the beginning). Was hoping that will not write this to you but for the past few month you are trying to make from black and bleak narrative something that is shiny and pinky. So get a grip , dig a bit more and write something more objective.
Now lets deluders to crucify me ...if that is your agenda you won
How does sharing info from well known vatniks any way constructive? I mean you managed to name three of some of the worst examples. I know there is this impression that two extremes somehow even out, but it really doesn't, not in reporting. Don also posts about Ukrainian losses, and in this very post talks about the bad decisions the 47th have been making and the losses it's taking. I agree compared to Tom his tone is more optimistic in general, but the stuff he shares are all legit and well-sourced.
As for the planes, pretty sure everyone has been cautious about the claims of downed airplanes without proof, albeit OSINT guys have confirmed 6 planes that never returned to their bases, so there's that.
And do you think a social media videos of individuals being taken in for draft evasion is evocative of the general state of Ukrainian mobilisation? Let's disregard for now how same thing happened in the past to every draft dodger, as it is an illegal act no matter how much they don't like it. A couple, or even a couple dozen cases a week really isn't that much in the big picture. Like you could probably gather hundreds, maybe even thousands such vids of the past two year, so what? Thats still just a drop in a country the size of Ukraine.
The real problem is that the leadership is unwilling to extend the legal limits and have been debating the exact changes to the mobilisation law when they should have done it a year ago and have trained soldiers ready. That's a real problem that should be discussed, but sharing pics reposted by russian tg channels about some guys taken in isn't contributing.
You should read again all of your justifications ,, or better few more times to understand that the situation is more darker that portrayed by Don or Tom. I am talking about sources that are posting videos , combat footages so not much of to dispute them. That is what Don and Tom are lacking in their reporting....for 100 of times we read how xx VDV brigad4 was mouled, decimated , rebuilded for the past 2 years while the situation is similar on both ends. Critical thinking is missing. You and me arguing here will not change the course of the
war
Why are all pro-Russians convinced that they are "objective", "neutral", "sane", and the only ones knowing "the truth?" Rhetoric question, of course. Also, all of them can explain why Ukraine is bad, or the USA.. I am still waiting from them to explain why is Russia better.
I am not debating on which country is better or not. I am debating on "objective" reporting and this is not for sure
And I am asking you why only the Russian side is the "objective" one to you. First of all, is the Russian side objective at all? Honest answer, please. Russians are belligerant, too, how could they be "objective"? This is a no brainer. have followed Russian media in 2022. It was a complete lost of time, as I don't buy their propaganda, which of course is a must. For those buying it, maybe it's great. I am Romanian and Russian propaganda only reminds me of communism and Ceausescu.
Thanks Don/Tom. All i see in Mike Johnson's actions is delaying; a pre-election enacting of Trump's zero support policy. If he is serious about his Christianity, I think he should try read more Bonhoeffer.
He isn't (serious, that is).
Always a good write up. Thanks for the hard work. But I have a question for the aviation types out there. Russia is ramping up the use of it's AF and using the glide bombs. The number of sorties are ranging from 50/60 to 100 a day. While that is pretty minor to the 350 so we had per day in Afghanistan, it's focused and for once they have a plan. This isn't good, but with the increased flights how is their OR rate and fleet doing? Russian gear wears out. It wears out faster than Western. It's also not really designed for repair or replacement versus being used and thrown away. Given that a lot of the RU aircraft had parts coming from Ukraine, and obviously those parts ain't coming anymore, and that Russian maintenance is not exactly on par with Western AFs, how long can they keep this rate up? They have aircraft, and they have some spares sure, but at the rate of usage they are currently running, how long can they go before we start seeing things slow down?
I doubt anybody outside VKS and three-letter agencies has enough information for any reasonable estimate.
Maybe Perun in Youtube has some data to interpolate, but that's uncharted territory (the military-industrial complex in Russia is quite complex and more opaque than the western one).
This is fake. They made a couple more videos in that same room with that same table.
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1769045682415947923
Quite unhappy to read about the misadventures of 47th Brigade.
Let's hope that they'll become a more professional and capable unit (wasting artillery personnel as infantry was a terrible waste, if you ask me - but I am not Ukrainian).
That video about the regimental artillery shooting at Baghdad was quite awesome (cannot even imagine how the receivers or all this firepower felt). Maybe the extra artillery rounds to arrive at Ukraine will balance things out a bit (and extra barrels and spare parts etc - such a war of attrition requires also maintenance).
I am mystified why Ukraine parliament and the government are still debating the mobilization law after two years of war. I saw this half-hour video, and it's apparent that the old veterans are quite bitter about the lack of fresh recruits and armed personnel to relieve them. Fighting for 2+ years is destructive for the body and soul
(about these heavy bombs, I don't know how Ukraine can stop the VKS onslaught - the F-16s will arrive no sooner than the summer, and land-based air defense cannot cover every square meter of the front *and* cities in the same time)