Don's Weekly, 18 March 2024: Part 3
(…continued from Part 2…)
Strategic Bombing Campaign
Russian oil and gas revenues dropped in January compared to the previous months and the strikes on the refineries will impact their income even if some of the damage is temporary. Steel mills, engine factories and other production facilities have also been hit recently. One of the issues Ukraine needs to solve is the increasing number and accuracy of Russian airstrikes, which are now regularly dropping 1500 kg bombs and multiple smaller bombs from each plane. If Ukraine is able to find a way to effectively hit Russian airfields they will neutralize one of Russia’s greatest remaining assets.
The election billboard says, “Stability!”…
https://twitter.com/solonko1648/status/1769342634911228307
This is at least the fourth time oil facilities at Nizhny Novgorod have been hit. The oil processing unit was still on fire hours after the attack. This facility processes 5.8% of Russia’s oil and half of its production capacity was halted…
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1767527126041760255
A worker’s view in the morning…
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1767475912302289375
The day after, another Lukoil executive was dead…
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1767963359293431999
Drones hit storage tanks in Orel…
https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/1767473127724851678
Drones hit a refinery near Kaluga…
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1768536076069540333
800 km from friendly territory, Ukrainian drones attacked a refinery in Syzran…
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1768873365836599576
100 km from Syzran, the Novokuybyshevskiy oil refinery was also attacked. The one report said the fire was extinguished…
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1768888480057233648
150 km southeast of Moscow, a refinery in Ryazan has hit…
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1767827769080111564
Russia says five drones hit a local plant 290 km from the front lines but specific details are lacking…
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1769160190601924730
There was a report that the Taganrog air strip and buildings associated with A-50s and other aircraft repairs was attacked again…
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1767667861403718057
Over 40 drones attacked targets in Voronezh. At least one of them was shot down…
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1767835734382166062
290 km from friendly territory, the Slavyansk-na-Kubani refinery in Krasnodar was hit by five drones, according to Russian media, or all drones were shot down, according to Russian media. You be the judge…
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1769248795550712029
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1769279503203750274
Multiple drones were either shot down or impacted at Domodedovo airport near Moscow. This video shows a drone crashing into an e-commerce warehouse 11 km west of that airport. No report on what the targets were or if there was any damage at the time of this writing…
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1769272065012400535
Russian energy revenues dropped 10% in January compared to December. The world still needs Russian oil and gas.
***
Russia
A bird strike caused a fire on a transport plane. When the engine fell off, the plane crashed and killed 15 people…https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/03/12/russian-military-transport-plane-crashes-in-flames-northeast-of-moscow-a84424
There is periodic vandalism and fires at Russian polling places. If this keeps up, they may not be able to determine who won the election…
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1768596723419533692
I do appreciate how he closes the curtain after the check out of respect for their privacy…
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1769045682415947923
A man with extensive knowledge of the Russian people talks to a fellow Czech. He used to think 10% of Russians are compatible with Europe. He now believes that number is closer to 5%, even among those who have lived in the west…https://cnn.iprima.cz/normalnich-rusu-je-jen-pet-procent-demokracie-tam-nebude-ani-po-putinovi-rika-hrabal-krondak-427029
Ukraine says that two A-50s were critically damaged in the Taganrog drone attack last week…
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1767293992423834057
Near Moscow, a warehouse burned…
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1767101020885156266
Russia is using jammers in Kaliningrad. Whatever the reason is, it’s impacting civilian traffic…
https://twitter.com/mbohnert/status/1769115578663403829
At the beginning of March, Russia banned the export of gasoline for six months to stabilize domestic prices. This export ban does not apply to oil, natural gas and other energy products…https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/russia-bans-gasoline-exports-6-months-march-1-2024-02-27/
***
Ukraine
The 47th Brigade spearheaded the Ukrainian offensive at Robotyne and was responsible for much of the offensive gains in the area, though not without a cost in personnel and equipment. It was then sent to defend against Russia’s primary assault route through Stepove, which it did successfully with the US-made M2/M3 Bradley infantry fighting vehicle being a primary component of that defense. There have been issues, though. There was an ill-conceived counter attack that mid-level leadership in the brigade not only opposed but refused to participate. The attack was conducted regardless complaints, and resulted with high losses that Ukraine can ill-afford. Continued losses without replacements resulted in a shortage of infantry and the brigade sent support and artillery troops forward to act as infantry when they had no training in that capacity. In a short time, almost all the personnel of an artillery section were killed after being used as infantry.
The original commander was replaced in September. His replacement was relieved in January. The third commander was just relieved this month. The current commander comes from the 56th Brigade, which had been fighting on the northern flank of Bakhmut. …https://militaryland.net/news/47th-mechanized-brigade-has-a-new-commander/
The Russians hit Odesa with an Iskander missile. When there was enough time for aid workers to arrive, the Russians sent another missile. 20 were reported killed and 75 wounded. The city has been hit by drone or missile strikes almost every day for the last month…https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/3840411-missile-attack-on-odesa-20-killed-73-wounded.html
Sumy was attacked by drones…
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1767791938235662592
Searching for drones in southern Ukraine…
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1769299324817592591
One report says that ammo carriers were destroyed last week but not the Patriot battery itself…
https://twitter.com/MarekMeissner/status/1766583624957051373
***
Diplomacy
Politicians seek power for a variety of reasons, but: if leaders in democratic countries are not elected then they have little power. It is therefore unsurprising that domestic politics might be prioritized over international politics. For nations bordering Russia and Belarus, the threat to their existence is always a core domestic concern, so the Russian threat is a domestic priority. For Orban, cheap Russian energy is important for his domestic base and he can leverage the EU and NATO requirements of unanimity for concessions on the sanctions for his undemocratic actions. In Slovakia, over 50% of the voters support Russia and the prime minister might also have a grudge. For the US, it used to be said that domestic politics stops at the water’s edge, and that was often true during the Cold War when there was concern about nuclear armageddon and the spread of communism. But the threat of Russia is not as strong as the Soviet threat was and the authoritarian faction within the Republican party is not only aligning itself with Orban, but is in a unique position to use the tools of Democracy against itself.
In June, 2022, Macron spoke about the dangers of humiliating Russia, but La Pen’s far right party is leading in the polls. La Pen has a reputation of being a friend of Putin, and Macron has suddenly become a fierce defender of Ukraine to create a clear distinction between himself as a savior of Europe and democracy, and Le Pen as another authoritarian politician. To minimize that distinction, Le Pen had her own turnabout and blamed Russia for invading Ukraine while advocating respect and support for Ukraine. Her motivation for her statements was explained when she said, "Either you’re pro-Macron, or you’re accused of being pro-Putin.”
After Macron talked about NATO troops entering Ukraine in non-combat roles, several NATO countries voiced their opposition. Some nations then reconsidered their position and supported NATO troops in Ukraine in non-combat roles. The Czech president noted that after Russia’s invasion of 2014, 15 NATO nations had 1,000 troops in Ukraine training the army. The Polish foreign minister said that NATO troops in Ukraine is not unthinkable. Russia said that any NATO troops in Ukraine are legitimate targets.
This is not unprecedented in history. About 3,000 Soviet and 320,000 Chinese troops were in North Vietnam during the US version of the Vietnam war. It should also be noted that 16 Soviet and 1,100 Chinese soldiers died and another 4,200 Chinese were wounded in that conflict.
Macron emphasized that “we cannot afford to set limits for ourselves in the face of an enemy who sets no limits.” As revealed in the leaked discussions from the German generals, French and British technicians already travel to Ukraine to upload target data in the Storm Shadow and SCALP missiles, US CIA personnel have manned observation and listening posts within Ukraine throughout the war, and the Polish foreign minister said that NATO troops are already in Ukraine without providing specifics on the nationality or activities of the troops involved.
Whatever the motivation for this evolving mindset, it will hopefully lead to greater commitments toward military production. The more ammo and equipment Ukraine has, the fewer Ukrainian and NATO lives will be lost…https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/03/11/czech-president-nato-support-troops-in-ukraine-not-against-international-rules/
This article lists the positions of several countries on the subject of sending troops to Ukraine. It was first published on February 29th but has since been updated several times…https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/02/29/minister-canada-open-to-sending-non-combat-troops-to-ukraine-to-train-ukrainians/?swcfpc=1
When you’re dealing with $75 billion in aid sometimes you overlook a few hundred million dollars. After determining that several contracts came in under budget when providing aid to Ukraine, the US found that they still had $300 million in authorized aid that was unspent. The list will include: Stinger anti-aircraft missiles, HIMARS ammo, 155 millimeter artillery rounds (both HE and DPICM), AT4 anti-armor systems, small arms ammo, demolitions, munitions for obstacle clearing, spare parts, maintenance & other equipment…
https://twitter.com/GlasnostGone/status/1767638425794941358
On the 25th anniversary of Hungary joining NATO, the US ambassador to Hungary said, “We cannot ignore a sitting minister referring to the United States as a corpse whose nails continue to grow. We can neither understand nor accept the prime minister identifying the United States as a ‘top adversary’ of our ally Hungary, Or his assertion that the United States government is trying to overthrow the Hungarian government — literally, to ‘defeat’ him. We cannot ignore it when the speaker of Hungary’s national assembly asserts that Putin’s war in Ukraine is actually ‘led by the United States’.”
“Hungary’s allies are warning Hungary of the dangers of its close and expanding relationship with Russia,” Pressman said. “If this is Hungary’s policy choice—and it has become increasingly clear that it is with the Foreign Minister’s sixth trip to Russia since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and with his next trip to Russia scheduled in two weeks, following his engagement with Russia’s Foreign Minister earlier this month, and the Prime Minister’s meeting with Vladimir Putin in China—we will have to decide how best to protect our security interests, which, as Allies, should be our collective security interests.”
The Hungarian spokesman said, “just another example of the political machinations of the liberal left”, and that the ambassador “no longer even pretends to be neutral or avoid playing in domestic politics.” This, after the largest Republican fundraiser held two of its conventions in Hungary and Orban met with Trump in Florida…https://www.politico.eu/article/u-s-ambassador-viktor-orban-hungary-for-unhinged-anti-american-messaging/
Portugal added €100 million to the Czech artillery initiative…
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1768588855429456323
The leaders of France and Poland flanked the German chancellor as he announced that the EU will continue to purchase weapons and ammo outside the EU market with frozen Russian assets. Earlier, France did not support purchasing weapons outside of the EU…
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1768674170122969397
Images of the largest NATO exercise in a decade…
https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1769332969674567981
In previous months, Speaker Johnson said that US border issues had to be resolved before any foreign aid could be considered. This week he did not mention the border but talked about how aid to Ukraine might pass in the House by using the suspension calendar, a process that requires 2/3 of the House to approve. This comes after both Republican and Democratic representatives started gathering signatures to bring the bipartisan Senate aid bill to a vote by a process known as a discharge petition. Johnson’s use of the suspension calendar would require a lot of Democratic votes and many will not vote for a bill that also provides aid to Israel, so Johnson said that they are considering splitting the joint Ukraine/Israel/Taiwan aid bill into separate aid bills. While these are words, not action, the words are the most positive sign of support for US aid to Ukrainian in months…https://www.politico.com/news/2024/03/14/mike-johnson-israel-ukraine-aid-bill-00147108
There was a drone attack on a Russian helicopter in the breakaway territory of Transnistria in the country of Moldova…
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1769413739265085757
***
Equipment
The Vampire air defense system is a kit that can be strapped on any vehicle, including pickup trucks. It has a launcher that holds four laser-guided $27,500 rockets, and it shot down a drone last week…
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1767083753023623245
The Palantin-K EW system was first produced by the Russians in 2019. It can passively monitor enemy electronic systems, or jam specific frequencies, or entire bandwidths in the cellular, short-wave and ultra short-wave spectrums. It has a range of 1,000 kilometers and can be combined with other EW assets to create a system of systems. A Palantin system was destroyed in June, 2022, and another one was destroyed in February, 2023, when a 155mm GPS-guided Excalibur shell hit it before it was deployed and capable of jamming the GPS frequencies. A third Palantin was destroyed last week by a HIMARS/MLRS rocket…
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1767232718419452139
Two instances of Russian ground delivery drones being destroyed by Ukrainian aerial drones…
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1768955850503192669
A Ukrainian minelaying drone is tested…
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1768364270247350478
Last week, Tom discussed Ukraine’s tech industry and the impact it had on its economy and the war. This week, a US platoon leader in a Ukrainian foreign special operations unit presented a Ukrainian system that uses AI and human confirmation to identify and mark targets. This information is then sent to all users that are connected so they can coordinate and prosecute targets. It was created by modifying existing technology. Here is a modified set of $700 Airsoft goggles that his team uses in combat. With them, a two-man element was able to advance under the cover of night and eliminate over 12 Russians in a defensive position. On the thread he is actively coordinating with readers to create further enhancements…
https://twitter.com/IhateTrenches/status/1769176588669599845
Thank you Tom and Don!
The stability billboard is not real. It was made by a Ukrainian designer https://twitter.com/khersondesigner
However the slogan is real. It was used often before the war.
Thanks Don,
The jury is still out on the bombing campaign by ZSU. It has created more cheerful videos with a “babovna” than real shortages. If sustained, probably it will start to bite. On the other side, every raid on a factory, is one that is not on an airfield. I hope ZSU/GUR finds the balance somewhere