Don't anyone for a moment think that leadership problems and challenges that the Ukrainian army faces are unique to it. Soviet thinking still may infect the Ukrainian officer corps to some (large?) extent, but there also are analogous leadership issues facing Western militaries (well at least in the U.S. where I am from). The Western issues might be different from the Soviet issues, but they too nonetheless tend to inhibit effective warfighting. The Western militaries may even (mostly likely are) be more effective as war fighters than the Russians, for example, but they are far from perfect, so much so that these imperfections merit close scrutiny by Western leaders, political and military, and by the societies they serve to protect.
Thousands of young (!!!) UA officers undertook training at NATO training camps and colleges since 2015 but USSR, which's gone more than 30 years ago, are still being blamed for failures. Something is not matching here...)))
Funny, a political system is officially gone and automatically everyone starts to think differently (according to your logic).
So the KGB was renamed to FSB, those members would think and act differently. Reality tells us, that nothing has changed but the name. They still adore their founder, still use the same bloody methods and still slaughter the helpless ones and boast about it.
It sounds like you’re quite nostalgic for Soviet military traditions — perhaps you're proud of how well they've been preserved in the Russian army? 😉 But seriously, the article’s point wasn’t to blame the USSR out of habit, but to highlight how remnants of that system still influence top-level decision-making in Ukraine. Training young officers is just one part; real change takes longer when the senior leadership sticks to old doctrines.
Western Militaries never had to face a superior enemy who has air superiority, you would be very surprised of the performance the Western militaries under such conditions
You may have forgotten the fall of France in WW2 and perhaps the battle of Dunquerke? Western army’s did not have air superiority and failed. However the Ukrainian conflict isn’t directly analogous in my view because neither side has air superiority over the front and into their enemy’s territory. Western military’s experience in WW2 and later conflict informs their doctrine today. The Soviets and their successor states learned different lessons
would be cool to have a post about the balance of power like you a while ago, today it sounds like Russia is slowly winning by sheer menpower and Ukranian imcompetence alone
Gaining territory very slowly is not the same as winning. From March-June 1918, Germany was making progress on the western front. At the same time, citizens at home were starving.
It's never good when Russia gains territory. It costs them a lot to do so. It would be much better if it cost them more and cost Ukraine less. There are several Ukrainian units that makes Russia pay a higher price for a lower Ukrainian price. That is what needs to be replicated throughout the army.
My worries is about even though they advance and pay a high price and the Ukranians lower, the number of Russians paying the price is not enough as per Tatarigami:
1) Directly by no longer being able to stem the Russian onslaught.
2) Indirectly as described by Ryan O’leary. Long wars of attrition are wars of negative selection.
But it has only one way to win.
The most valuable in life is either given by free will or not at all. One can neither buy it, nor force it. The soviet legacy is a deadly one. Either Ukraine can get rid of it or Ukraine loses even when winning nominally on the battle field, because it ruins what it is fighting for.
IMHO Ukraine has still a chance to win, but it also has to be careful that it isn't a phyrric victory.
The last reports is that they are still being jammed which greatly affects their accuracy. Near misses are still a threat due to the size of the blasts, and dropping a lot of bombs means some of them may be randomly accurate.
Bottom line: both sides are very inventive and creative. You can't be sure of certain weapons' effeciency for a long while. But right now UPMKs are perfoming good again.
Thanks for the video links, but here’s a fair counterpoint: why don't you also post links showing when Russian troops use FPV drones to hunt down civilians in Kherson, or when Kh-101 “precision” missiles destroy residential buildings in Kyiv, or how three glide bombs hit an apartment block in Kherson, killing and maiming people who had nothing to do with military targets?
How about footage of Russian officers beating and abusing their own soldiers, some of whom are barely trained or even forcibly mobilized?
And really — why the constant urge to convince the authors of that blog they're wrong every time? It’s one thing to have a different opinion, but quite another to ignore clear patterns of violence and abuse on both sides.
By the way, remember how you tried to downplay the risks of the so-called “shadow fleet”?
Well — one of those tankers is currently burning in the Strait of Hormuz. Reality tends to catch up.
The report about French car manufacturer to produce military drone for Ukraine is inaccurate.
To make it short, French Defense minister Lecornu announced during a press interview that a car manufacturer he refused to name would join a French startup he refused to name as well to produce drones in Ukraine. The production would be for Ukrainian armed forces and for the French armed forces.
Shortly after, state owned media France Info announced it was the Renault Group who had been approached by the government. It owns the car brands, Renault, Dacia and Alpine. Renault Group confirmed to France Info it had been approached by the government but said it had yet to make a decision.
It was last week.
Renault Group is own by 14% share by the French state.
This sunday, Renault Group CEO Luca de Meo resigned from the company to join luxury group Kering. During the path months, he multiplied decisions and announcements that would raise Renault's stock value. He conveniently leaves prior to have to announce the sells results of the company for the past year.
The article by France Info makes the proposition sound very unserious. They said the production site could be located "dozens or hundreds of kilometres behind the frontline". Seemingly unaware the depth of the danger zone near the frontline.
Lecornu also said there would be no need for any French workers since the Ukrainians are far better than us French. Be it to conceive drone models or to build the doctrine around their usage.
Honestly, I doubt the unnamed start up is anything but an empty shell for a corruption scheme. If it even exists at all.
For the wider context, France is nearly bankrupted. We dont have a solid government and current ministers are competing to make the stupidest announcement as to exist on the media and hopefully seize the best places in the next gouvernement. Minister of Interior Retaillau is winning by a large measure et just won his party internal election. Among countless crazy announcement, he nearly declared war on Algeria. It should be said that France and large never got over Algeria's independence and is nurturing an ever-greater revanchism, as odd as it may sound. He is followed by Justice minister Darmanin who, among many announcements, recently proposed to abolish cash money. Family minister Vautrin recently proposed to ban phone and TV screen to children as well as ban sells of phone to them (as if 3 years old children were moving on their own with 700 euros in cash to buy themselves the latest smartphone). And so on.
While it is not his style, Lecornu may be trying to exist this such announcement as well.
On a related note, the French armies have 9 billions in debt to weapon manufacturers for equipment already ordered and has stopped all new procurement negociation.
I also recently read this post by Ryan O'leary on Twitter(X). In a phone conversation, my friend told me that he got sick at a military training ground in Ukraine, where there wasn’t even any medicine. The lack of medicine was justified by some nonsense about adapting to the conditions of the front. That is, getting pneumonia due to hypothermia in a military tent and a lack of wood for the stove is such a cool adaptation to the conditions of the front. After the military training ground, he went to Britain for training. He stayed there for about a month, after which he found himself on the front line. Literally the first combat mission on the zero front line, and he disappeared. Initially, his mother was reported missing and given a bag with his belongings. After some time, it turned out that he had died. Yesterday, his body was brought and buried. Another friend had died a few months earlier. The situation was absolutely similar. The only difference was that he was assigned to a military unit and served in the military unit's security. It so happened that someone, through military acquaintances, arranged for a relative to take his place, and my friend was sent to an airborne assault brigade, where he was killed during his first mission. To describe to you how mobilization happens, people are simply caught on the streets by police officers and employees of the territorial recruitment center. For example, my neighbor was recently caught going to the store. When his mother went to the police, the police pretended they didn't know anything. Then she went to the military registration and enlistment office to tell them he would call her back in four days. He called seven days later and told his mother that he was being forced to sign some documents stating that he was physically fit and healthy and that he was a volunteer. He also said that he would have to sign them because three men from the recruitment center severely beat people who refused to sign these documents. He explained that he would be beaten anyway, so it was better to sign to avoid being beaten. The main problem lies in the nepotistic system of the high command, which gives such guys to their loyal incompetent favorite commanders so that they can receive awards and promotions. No one cares how many people die in the process. Since the bastard Zelensky refuses to reform the army, but is engaged in simulations, creating the appearance of some kind of change by keeping loyal incompetent bastards around him so that the oligarchy can rely on the support of these generals to maintain power, if we also take into account the general demoralization of the population, which is losing its relatives due to corruption and criminal incompetence, this system of degenerates is waiting for something similar to a local revolt or Prigozhin's revolt. If the degenerate Zelensky and Syrsky think that they will just endlessly kill people without any talent and throw them into the meat of clamping holes at the front without preparation, they are very wrong. Well, the essence and the very meaning of reforms is in rapid changes. If reforms last for decades, as in Ukraine, without visible results, then this is simulation and deception. Poroshenko and Zelensky are engaged in simulations and the appearance of some changes where in reality nothing in the system of public administration is changing.
Pretty daring post. It will be ignored of course. Easiest that way. Still, thank you for providing this.
There is a wave of resignations in UAF. Drapaty and now Tarnavsky.
This is something sistemic where the new officers are promoted and shoved aside. This way it looks like they have some problem.
I think they have. But then I read this blog too.
Don't anyone for a moment think that leadership problems and challenges that the Ukrainian army faces are unique to it. Soviet thinking still may infect the Ukrainian officer corps to some (large?) extent, but there also are analogous leadership issues facing Western militaries (well at least in the U.S. where I am from). The Western issues might be different from the Soviet issues, but they too nonetheless tend to inhibit effective warfighting. The Western militaries may even (mostly likely are) be more effective as war fighters than the Russians, for example, but they are far from perfect, so much so that these imperfections merit close scrutiny by Western leaders, political and military, and by the societies they serve to protect.
Thousands of young (!!!) UA officers undertook training at NATO training camps and colleges since 2015 but USSR, which's gone more than 30 years ago, are still being blamed for failures. Something is not matching here...)))
This is because the high command with "Soviet" brains and innovative officers, in order to stay in this system, are forced to adapt to its demands.
Funny, a political system is officially gone and automatically everyone starts to think differently (according to your logic).
So the KGB was renamed to FSB, those members would think and act differently. Reality tells us, that nothing has changed but the name. They still adore their founder, still use the same bloody methods and still slaughter the helpless ones and boast about it.
It sounds like you’re quite nostalgic for Soviet military traditions — perhaps you're proud of how well they've been preserved in the Russian army? 😉 But seriously, the article’s point wasn’t to blame the USSR out of habit, but to highlight how remnants of that system still influence top-level decision-making in Ukraine. Training young officers is just one part; real change takes longer when the senior leadership sticks to old doctrines.
Western Militaries never had to face a superior enemy who has air superiority, you would be very surprised of the performance the Western militaries under such conditions
You may have forgotten the fall of France in WW2 and perhaps the battle of Dunquerke? Western army’s did not have air superiority and failed. However the Ukrainian conflict isn’t directly analogous in my view because neither side has air superiority over the front and into their enemy’s territory. Western military’s experience in WW2 and later conflict informs their doctrine today. The Soviets and their successor states learned different lessons
would be cool to have a post about the balance of power like you a while ago, today it sounds like Russia is slowly winning by sheer menpower and Ukranian imcompetence alone
Gaining territory very slowly is not the same as winning. From March-June 1918, Germany was making progress on the western front. At the same time, citizens at home were starving.
It's never good when Russia gains territory. It costs them a lot to do so. It would be much better if it cost them more and cost Ukraine less. There are several Ukrainian units that makes Russia pay a higher price for a lower Ukrainian price. That is what needs to be replicated throughout the army.
My worries is about even though they advance and pay a high price and the Ukranians lower, the number of Russians paying the price is not enough as per Tatarigami:
https://frontelligence.substack.com/p/desertions-and-loss-ratios-trends
A leading cause for Ukrainian AWOLs is they hate dying for stupid reasons. That can be fixed.
You can imagine that Russians hate dying for stupid reaons, too.
Ukraine can lose in 2 ways:
1) Directly by no longer being able to stem the Russian onslaught.
2) Indirectly as described by Ryan O’leary. Long wars of attrition are wars of negative selection.
But it has only one way to win.
The most valuable in life is either given by free will or not at all. One can neither buy it, nor force it. The soviet legacy is a deadly one. Either Ukraine can get rid of it or Ukraine loses even when winning nominally on the battle field, because it ruins what it is fighting for.
IMHO Ukraine has still a chance to win, but it also has to be careful that it isn't a phyrric victory.
Slava Ukraini!
Is anyone going discuss the KAB/FAB/Glide Bomb DILEMMA???????
I have asked twice before and been told "I need more time."
Dudes......what is happening??????
The last reports is that they are still being jammed which greatly affects their accuracy. Near misses are still a threat due to the size of the blasts, and dropping a lot of bombs means some of them may be randomly accurate.
Donald: Thank you. It's just been such a major uptick that I thought the jamming might have been jellied....or buttered..... :o)
Modernised UMPKs work fine. No need to ask, just take a look at RU TG channels, they post enough, like this fresh video of one of the strikes in May:
https://t.me/bomber_fighter/21046
Three bombs were "jammed" that good that hit home one by one very close to each other.
But Don knows better, of course....))))))
P.S. This one from April, check accuracy:
https://t.me/bomber_fighter/20702
Bottom line: both sides are very inventive and creative. You can't be sure of certain weapons' effeciency for a long while. But right now UPMKs are perfoming good again.
Thanks Tupolev
Thanks for the video links, but here’s a fair counterpoint: why don't you also post links showing when Russian troops use FPV drones to hunt down civilians in Kherson, or when Kh-101 “precision” missiles destroy residential buildings in Kyiv, or how three glide bombs hit an apartment block in Kherson, killing and maiming people who had nothing to do with military targets?
How about footage of Russian officers beating and abusing their own soldiers, some of whom are barely trained or even forcibly mobilized?
And really — why the constant urge to convince the authors of that blog they're wrong every time? It’s one thing to have a different opinion, but quite another to ignore clear patterns of violence and abuse on both sides.
By the way, remember how you tried to downplay the risks of the so-called “shadow fleet”?
Well — one of those tankers is currently burning in the Strait of Hormuz. Reality tends to catch up.
The report about French car manufacturer to produce military drone for Ukraine is inaccurate.
To make it short, French Defense minister Lecornu announced during a press interview that a car manufacturer he refused to name would join a French startup he refused to name as well to produce drones in Ukraine. The production would be for Ukrainian armed forces and for the French armed forces.
Shortly after, state owned media France Info announced it was the Renault Group who had been approached by the government. It owns the car brands, Renault, Dacia and Alpine. Renault Group confirmed to France Info it had been approached by the government but said it had yet to make a decision.
It was last week.
Renault Group is own by 14% share by the French state.
This sunday, Renault Group CEO Luca de Meo resigned from the company to join luxury group Kering. During the path months, he multiplied decisions and announcements that would raise Renault's stock value. He conveniently leaves prior to have to announce the sells results of the company for the past year.
The article by France Info makes the proposition sound very unserious. They said the production site could be located "dozens or hundreds of kilometres behind the frontline". Seemingly unaware the depth of the danger zone near the frontline.
Lecornu also said there would be no need for any French workers since the Ukrainians are far better than us French. Be it to conceive drone models or to build the doctrine around their usage.
Honestly, I doubt the unnamed start up is anything but an empty shell for a corruption scheme. If it even exists at all.
For the wider context, France is nearly bankrupted. We dont have a solid government and current ministers are competing to make the stupidest announcement as to exist on the media and hopefully seize the best places in the next gouvernement. Minister of Interior Retaillau is winning by a large measure et just won his party internal election. Among countless crazy announcement, he nearly declared war on Algeria. It should be said that France and large never got over Algeria's independence and is nurturing an ever-greater revanchism, as odd as it may sound. He is followed by Justice minister Darmanin who, among many announcements, recently proposed to abolish cash money. Family minister Vautrin recently proposed to ban phone and TV screen to children as well as ban sells of phone to them (as if 3 years old children were moving on their own with 700 euros in cash to buy themselves the latest smartphone). And so on.
While it is not his style, Lecornu may be trying to exist this such announcement as well.
On a related note, the French armies have 9 billions in debt to weapon manufacturers for equipment already ordered and has stopped all new procurement negociation.
Thank you so much for your weekly thread of Ariadne. To understand and to keep thinking you are most precious.
I also recently read this post by Ryan O'leary on Twitter(X). In a phone conversation, my friend told me that he got sick at a military training ground in Ukraine, where there wasn’t even any medicine. The lack of medicine was justified by some nonsense about adapting to the conditions of the front. That is, getting pneumonia due to hypothermia in a military tent and a lack of wood for the stove is such a cool adaptation to the conditions of the front. After the military training ground, he went to Britain for training. He stayed there for about a month, after which he found himself on the front line. Literally the first combat mission on the zero front line, and he disappeared. Initially, his mother was reported missing and given a bag with his belongings. After some time, it turned out that he had died. Yesterday, his body was brought and buried. Another friend had died a few months earlier. The situation was absolutely similar. The only difference was that he was assigned to a military unit and served in the military unit's security. It so happened that someone, through military acquaintances, arranged for a relative to take his place, and my friend was sent to an airborne assault brigade, where he was killed during his first mission. To describe to you how mobilization happens, people are simply caught on the streets by police officers and employees of the territorial recruitment center. For example, my neighbor was recently caught going to the store. When his mother went to the police, the police pretended they didn't know anything. Then she went to the military registration and enlistment office to tell them he would call her back in four days. He called seven days later and told his mother that he was being forced to sign some documents stating that he was physically fit and healthy and that he was a volunteer. He also said that he would have to sign them because three men from the recruitment center severely beat people who refused to sign these documents. He explained that he would be beaten anyway, so it was better to sign to avoid being beaten. The main problem lies in the nepotistic system of the high command, which gives such guys to their loyal incompetent favorite commanders so that they can receive awards and promotions. No one cares how many people die in the process. Since the bastard Zelensky refuses to reform the army, but is engaged in simulations, creating the appearance of some kind of change by keeping loyal incompetent bastards around him so that the oligarchy can rely on the support of these generals to maintain power, if we also take into account the general demoralization of the population, which is losing its relatives due to corruption and criminal incompetence, this system of degenerates is waiting for something similar to a local revolt or Prigozhin's revolt. If the degenerate Zelensky and Syrsky think that they will just endlessly kill people without any talent and throw them into the meat of clamping holes at the front without preparation, they are very wrong. Well, the essence and the very meaning of reforms is in rapid changes. If reforms last for decades, as in Ukraine, without visible results, then this is simulation and deception. Poroshenko and Zelensky are engaged in simulations and the appearance of some changes where in reality nothing in the system of public administration is changing.