14 Comments

Thanks, Don/Tom!

The Russian tank was well within Stepovo. Does it mean that at least half of the village is lost?

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"Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated that Ukrainian forces withdrew from Stepove (northwest of Avdiivka), while Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces remain in the western part of the settlement."

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-january-14-2024

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Ukraine will not hold a piece of territory unless there are trenches or buildings to give their troops cover. The loss of manpower would be too great. Russia will hold the territory even if their troops are unprotected. So the Ukrainians held the treelines along the railroad until the trenches no longer existed due to artillery and cannon fire. Then they withdrew from the treelines into Stepove and any time the Russians would advance into them they'd use artillery, drones and Bradleys to kill them and sometimes small assault teams to root out stragglers, then they'd withdraw back into Stepove.

Over the months, Russian airstrikes, artillery, drones and cannon fire destroyed the houses in Stepove so they no longer provided cover. So now every time the Russians push into the treelines and Stepove, Ukraine pushes them out and then withdraws to their defensive positions to the west. The grey zone, or no-man's land, extends from the treelines by the railroad to the village. It's Ukraine's way of preventing a Russian advance while preserving their manpower.

With regards to what Denys wrote below, what I see supports what the Ukrainian observer states, not the Russian sources. If you look in the video where the two Bradley's engaged the T90, I don't see any fire from static positions in the village or from the treeline on the west side (nearest to the drone) of the village. Plus, a Ukrainian artillery shell was fired into the western end of the village.

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Well, Bakhmut holds will challenge your statement.

As well as many reports that say 1. ukraine bearing large loses due to incompetence and lack of reservers as well as lack of fortification both on 0 and second line. 2. there are cases when commanders are bragging with the level of loses of their solders.

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From January to mid-February it made sense to defend Bakhmut because they were killing a lot of Russians compared to their own. From mid-February to May, it was a poor decision to try and hold onto Bakhmut.

Over the course of the war, both the Ukrainians and Russians have changed the way they fight the war. This is how the Ukrainians and Russians are fighting in Avdiivka now. I stand by my statement.

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Thank you very much.

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Thanks Mr Cooper . .

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Thank Don for this one.

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My pleasure. But, I'm just adding a bit of editing and posting: this is all Don Hill's work.

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With regard to the video from the 47th, the engagements were a bit close for TOW. Especially the first encounter when the Bradley damn near ran into the T-90. Having trained to operate a Bradley a couple decades ago, I can attest to how insanely gutsy Ukrainians are. M2 against T-90 at close range is supposed to end badly... and not for the tank.

Slava Ukraini, dudes. Respect.

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That Bradley/T-90 video was amazing.

Imagine Ukraine receiving the 500 Bradleys destined for Morocco (of all places), what they could achieve...

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(and I think that a 35mm autocannon would be even more devastating - probably an upgrade for a future version?)

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The only NYT combat correspondent I trust is Charlotta Gall. I remember her reporting from the opening of the Afghan war.

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Her given name is Carlotta, my bad.

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