Don's Weekly, 15 January 2024: Part 1

Hello everybody!

Winter has set in in Ukraine and… well, everything is frozen. Combat operations are going on, of course, but at lesser levels of intensity. Ukrainians are also reporting that there are far less Russian UAVs in action: apparently, the Orlan-family is still impacted by low temperatures, after all. Furthermore, few weeks ago, Ukraine used UAvs to hit Russian ‘POL’ (‘petrol, oil, lubricants’) -storage depots in Donetsk, and it seems that this is now having its impact upon the Russian operations in the Bakhmut- and Avidiivka areas: apparently, both had to slow down due to low supplies of fuel and oils.

Winter

You think the times of frostbite and similar, ‘winter-related’ issues are over, just because of modern equipment?

Well, if you think that way: sorry, that’s wrong. If one is not protected well-enough, or unable to protect him-/herself from the frost - for example: because of combat operations - consequences are unavoidable.

A Ukrainian soldier is told his toes might need to be amputated due to frostbite.

The winter is hardest on the soldiers of both sides. Simply living in a trench or bunker is a matter of survival even if the shells aren’t flying. It’s important to have the right clothing, a source of heat and a regular rotation. As challenging as it is for Ukraine, Russian soldiers usually have greater equipment issues and a less compassionate command. While temperatures in the Kherson Oblast in the south are usually warmer than in the Kupiansk area, the water of the river and swamps is a much greater danger when combined with the cold. And if soldiers are moving around, they have to be careful that they are not so warm that they generate sweat, because that will also suck the heat out of the body once they stop moving.

The cold is constant source of attrition for both sides and greatly reducing any unit’s effectiveness.

Western Luhansk

Perhaps surprisingly, and once in a while, The New York Times article is doing relatively well in describing small battles based on interviews with the combatants and stories about individuals. I think they do a poor job of taking some quotes of soldiers, which may well be true, and portray them as a widespread reality without any supporting research. The useful tidbits I found in this article, which focused on the 69th Brigade southwest of Svatove, is that Ukraine is cutting armor off destroyed vehicles to repair damaged vehicles, less ammo is being issued to artillery and tank crews, and Ukrainian cluster ammunition isn’t killing as many Russians because it forced them to attack in smaller groups and dig their trenches deeper…

In the 63rd Mechanized Brigade, an aid station is 2-3 km behind the front line. The M113 serving as an ambulance is camouflaged. They do not display red crosses because the Russians are intentionally targeting such vehicles - and all the medical facilities they can find, too. Before moving out, driver scan for drones. It’s important for the wounded to receive medical care within an hour of being injured but it takes 30 minutes for the medics to make it to the front line and return. Sometimes the fighting on the front lines is so intense that they can’t retrieve the wounded. Once a team drove at night and didn’t realize they ended up in a Russian position. They got out and asked where the wounded were. When the Russians said they had their own transport and started surrounding their vehicle, they jumped back in and drove away as the Russian shot at them. 70 percent of all their casualties are from artillery. Most of their supplies are bought by volunteers…

A Russian self-propelled gun is destroyed northeast of Kupiansk…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1746481415292641587

A Ukrainian T-64 is destroyed at Synkivka…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1746278977734398453

Four Russian anti-aircraft missiles deployed in ballistic mode have destroyed a Ukrainian warehouse north of Kupiansk…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1745508279688597574

Bakhmut

A view from the front lines…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1745816391154843930

Fuel issues are impacting operations in Bakhmut and Avdiivka. Oh, and the GRU is working on replicating Wagner…

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/status/1744291196313182515

Avdiivka

There was fierce fighting at Stepove and the coke plant but territory did not change hands.

By the coke plant, Russians play dead in the hopes of not being noticed. The drone makes low altitude bombing runs…

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1744608777754775682

Russian wounded try to fit into an evacuation vehicle…

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1744416361298690300

A small forward ammo depot is detected by Ukraine…

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1744449083320709293

When a Russian TOS-1 is destroyed, it’s a beautiful sight…

https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1744641911099404775

There are plenty of destroyed armored vehicles around Avdiivka and the Russians often use them for cover. Sometimes they dig underneath the vehicles and use the armor for overhead protection…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1744814685147271436

There has been drone vs. drone combat before. In this case, a Ukrainian drone is unhurt after a Russian drone ran into it…https://t.me/khornegroup/1346

A Lancet drone hits a Bradley north of Stepove…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1746598146329682020

Russian positions north of Stepove are attacked by drones…

https://twitter.com/EjShahid/status/1745918449556054450

A Bradley takes on a T-90 tank in Stepove. It’s clear they don’t have a TOW missile so they use their 25 mm cannon, initially firing at the tank from 60 meters away (for reference, from treeline to treeline Stepove is 1200 m long). At 0:17 you see another Bradley firing on the railroad treeline from at least 1500 m away. (Its 25mm autocanon has an effective range of 3000 m). At 0:24 an artillery shell lands. At 0:26, one Bradley leaves and another takes over, firing on the tank at 400 m. The 25mm rounds won’t penetrate the armor, but they can destroy the treads and wheels to immobilize the tank, and they are likely to destroy or damage the optics atop the turret of the tank, making precise aiming of its main gun nearly-impossible. I don’t know what caused the turret to rotate but it’s clear in the end the T-90-crew has no idea where the road is. The Bradley is already gone at that point, probably because they were out of ammo. The Russian crew later abandoned their tank…

https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1745933354845815034

(….to be continued…)