> Russian nuclear power needs hydro and coal power plants to mange energy fluctuations. Hydro power sources are being damaged and a lot of coal power plants are damaged or destroyed…
Russia currently uses/loses much more tanks and IFVs than 6 months ago(that biiig mechanized assault on Vuhledar a year or so ago is now a daily routine) . I know that the conventional wisdom is that Russia is refurbishing old vehicles and the stock will end by say 2026. But I also see so many videos of T-90s and modern BMPs being destroyed so I started to doubt. What about the rate of production? Any insights about it? What enabled this change compared to 6-12 months ago - do the Russians have better logistics now, more facilities to repair, refurbish or produce, or more troops to put on these vehicles?
Russia builds about 200 new tanks a year and refurbishes about 400-600 a year. The stockpile for all tanks is estimated to run out at the end of 2025.
There are no more BTRs in storage and about 4-500 MT-LBs are all that are left in storage.
Russia has just one plant that produces BMPs at a rate of 400 a year. In January, there were under 3,000 BMPs in storage. They lost about 2,000 in almost two years of war. At the current loss rate they may lose 2,000 in 2024.
I don't have the numbers for artillery off the top of my head but they produce 30-50 barrels a year. Even if a gun is intact, its barrel wears out after 5-7k rounds, on average. A lot of artillery vehicles in storage have had their barrels removed already.
These rates of losses will be impacted by how hard Russia pushes and how lethal Ukraine becomes with allied production, but 2026 looks grim for Russia.
And , btw, you can see that new production is also sufficient to replace other weapons as well - for example TOS-1 systems. ZSU has developed good counter battery tactics agains them so they are no longer that effective in enabling Russian advances but yet Russia was estimated to have 10-12 systems before the war while more than have been destroyed
I don't know the production rate of the TOS-1A. All the announcements say that a "batch" was delivered. Wiki said they started with ~45. Orynx says 24 have been destroyed. A couple articles say Saudi Arabia is looking to buy some, which suggests a surplus.
I’m not asking for the production rate of each weapon nomenclature, just noting that Russia doesn’t look restraint in using any weapon or vehicle. Interesting, you said there are no more BTRs in storage. Does it mean that they are currently rarely seen on the frontline?
I don't see any restraint or any standardized distribution of equipment based on unit type. It's just a group of people on some kind of equipment moving towards Ukrainian positions.
BTRs are still on the battlefield but they will become increasingly rare as they are destroyed. They will not be replaced. I don't know how many are in service right now.
Don, your chart with fuel production by Russian refineries shows that currently production rate is just within the normal fluctuations. I mean the argument goes - look with more than 40 drones on the Morozovsk airbase, nobody knows if a single aircraft (out of 300) was damaged or not. But the strikes on Russian refineries have had similar negligible (up to now) impact on Russian fuel production. Just because they have taken serious precautions (gasoline export ban, negotiations with Kazakhstan and Belarus, etc) doesn’t mean that the impact has been that big. It’s more of a testament that the Russians have got serious about the war unlike the West. Anyway, me thinks that strikes on both airbases and refineries should continue.
Halting gas exports to reduce inflation means some money is lost. Temporarily damaging the refineries for four to however many weeks will cost them income. But Russia can still ship out unrefined oil for some income.
Fragmentation possibilities aside, there's nothing on the satellite imagery that suggests Russian planes were damaged. But I'm confident the attacks will continue.
> Russian nuclear power needs hydro and coal power plants to mange energy fluctuations. Hydro power sources are being damaged and a lot of coal power plants are damaged or destroyed…
-- The post was about Ukrainian power plants
Yup, thanks: is corrected now.
(Time and again, mistakes do happen, primarily because both Don and me are constantly short on time.)
Thanks Don!
Russia currently uses/loses much more tanks and IFVs than 6 months ago(that biiig mechanized assault on Vuhledar a year or so ago is now a daily routine) . I know that the conventional wisdom is that Russia is refurbishing old vehicles and the stock will end by say 2026. But I also see so many videos of T-90s and modern BMPs being destroyed so I started to doubt. What about the rate of production? Any insights about it? What enabled this change compared to 6-12 months ago - do the Russians have better logistics now, more facilities to repair, refurbish or produce, or more troops to put on these vehicles?
Russia builds about 200 new tanks a year and refurbishes about 400-600 a year. The stockpile for all tanks is estimated to run out at the end of 2025.
There are no more BTRs in storage and about 4-500 MT-LBs are all that are left in storage.
Russia has just one plant that produces BMPs at a rate of 400 a year. In January, there were under 3,000 BMPs in storage. They lost about 2,000 in almost two years of war. At the current loss rate they may lose 2,000 in 2024.
I don't have the numbers for artillery off the top of my head but they produce 30-50 barrels a year. Even if a gun is intact, its barrel wears out after 5-7k rounds, on average. A lot of artillery vehicles in storage have had their barrels removed already.
These rates of losses will be impacted by how hard Russia pushes and how lethal Ukraine becomes with allied production, but 2026 looks grim for Russia.
And , btw, you can see that new production is also sufficient to replace other weapons as well - for example TOS-1 systems. ZSU has developed good counter battery tactics agains them so they are no longer that effective in enabling Russian advances but yet Russia was estimated to have 10-12 systems before the war while more than have been destroyed
I don't know the production rate of the TOS-1A. All the announcements say that a "batch" was delivered. Wiki said they started with ~45. Orynx says 24 have been destroyed. A couple articles say Saudi Arabia is looking to buy some, which suggests a surplus.
Thanks Don,
I’m not asking for the production rate of each weapon nomenclature, just noting that Russia doesn’t look restraint in using any weapon or vehicle. Interesting, you said there are no more BTRs in storage. Does it mean that they are currently rarely seen on the frontline?
I don't see any restraint or any standardized distribution of equipment based on unit type. It's just a group of people on some kind of equipment moving towards Ukrainian positions.
BTRs are still on the battlefield but they will become increasingly rare as they are destroyed. They will not be replaced. I don't know how many are in service right now.
The Magpies part was the best.
Don, your chart with fuel production by Russian refineries shows that currently production rate is just within the normal fluctuations. I mean the argument goes - look with more than 40 drones on the Morozovsk airbase, nobody knows if a single aircraft (out of 300) was damaged or not. But the strikes on Russian refineries have had similar negligible (up to now) impact on Russian fuel production. Just because they have taken serious precautions (gasoline export ban, negotiations with Kazakhstan and Belarus, etc) doesn’t mean that the impact has been that big. It’s more of a testament that the Russians have got serious about the war unlike the West. Anyway, me thinks that strikes on both airbases and refineries should continue.
Halting gas exports to reduce inflation means some money is lost. Temporarily damaging the refineries for four to however many weeks will cost them income. But Russia can still ship out unrefined oil for some income.
Fragmentation possibilities aside, there's nothing on the satellite imagery that suggests Russian planes were damaged. But I'm confident the attacks will continue.
Thanks Don