(…continued from Part 2…) Russia Russia needs 5 million additional laborers and this shortage is hurting the economy. They officially list 1.7 million immigrants in their country but Bloomberg estimates they actually have 3.5 to 5 million immigrants. There’s been a mild crackdown in the last year that coerced a small number to be sent to Ukraine, and more that were deported, which dampened the enthusiasm of some potential laborers to immigrate. Indeed, since the recent terror attack the Russian lawmakers are making it more difficult to enter the country.
> Russian nuclear power needs hydro and coal power plants to mange energy fluctuations. Hydro power sources are being damaged and a lot of coal power plants are damaged or destroyed…
Russia currently uses/loses much more tanks and IFVs than 6 months ago(that biiig mechanized assault on Vuhledar a year or so ago is now a daily routine) . I know that the conventional wisdom is that Russia is refurbishing old vehicles and the stock will end by say 2026. But I also see so many videos of T-90s and modern BMPs being destroyed so I started to doubt. What about the rate of production? Any insights about it? What enabled this change compared to 6-12 months ago - do the Russians have better logistics now, more facilities to repair, refurbish or produce, or more troops to put on these vehicles?
And , btw, you can see that new production is also sufficient to replace other weapons as well - for example TOS-1 systems. ZSU has developed good counter battery tactics agains them so they are no longer that effective in enabling Russian advances but yet Russia was estimated to have 10-12 systems before the war while more than have been destroyed
Don, your chart with fuel production by Russian refineries shows that currently production rate is just within the normal fluctuations. I mean the argument goes - look with more than 40 drones on the Morozovsk airbase, nobody knows if a single aircraft (out of 300) was damaged or not. But the strikes on Russian refineries have had similar negligible (up to now) impact on Russian fuel production. Just because they have taken serious precautions (gasoline export ban, negotiations with Kazakhstan and Belarus, etc) doesn’t mean that the impact has been that big. It’s more of a testament that the Russians have got serious about the war unlike the West. Anyway, me thinks that strikes on both airbases and refineries should continue.
> Russian nuclear power needs hydro and coal power plants to mange energy fluctuations. Hydro power sources are being damaged and a lot of coal power plants are damaged or destroyed…
-- The post was about Ukrainian power plants
Thanks Don!
Russia currently uses/loses much more tanks and IFVs than 6 months ago(that biiig mechanized assault on Vuhledar a year or so ago is now a daily routine) . I know that the conventional wisdom is that Russia is refurbishing old vehicles and the stock will end by say 2026. But I also see so many videos of T-90s and modern BMPs being destroyed so I started to doubt. What about the rate of production? Any insights about it? What enabled this change compared to 6-12 months ago - do the Russians have better logistics now, more facilities to repair, refurbish or produce, or more troops to put on these vehicles?
And , btw, you can see that new production is also sufficient to replace other weapons as well - for example TOS-1 systems. ZSU has developed good counter battery tactics agains them so they are no longer that effective in enabling Russian advances but yet Russia was estimated to have 10-12 systems before the war while more than have been destroyed
The Magpies part was the best.
Don, your chart with fuel production by Russian refineries shows that currently production rate is just within the normal fluctuations. I mean the argument goes - look with more than 40 drones on the Morozovsk airbase, nobody knows if a single aircraft (out of 300) was damaged or not. But the strikes on Russian refineries have had similar negligible (up to now) impact on Russian fuel production. Just because they have taken serious precautions (gasoline export ban, negotiations with Kazakhstan and Belarus, etc) doesn’t mean that the impact has been that big. It’s more of a testament that the Russians have got serious about the war unlike the West. Anyway, me thinks that strikes on both airbases and refineries should continue.
Thanks Don