Don's Weekly, 15 April 2024: Part 3
(…continued from Part 2…)
Russia
Russia needs 5 million additional laborers and this shortage is hurting the economy. They officially list 1.7 million immigrants in their country but Bloomberg estimates they actually have 3.5 to 5 million immigrants. There’s been a mild crackdown in the last year that coerced a small number to be sent to Ukraine, and more that were deported, which dampened the enthusiasm of some potential laborers to immigrate. Indeed, since the recent terror attack the Russian lawmakers are making it more difficult to enter the country.
Military spending is propping up the economy for now, but lack of production due to labor shortages could increase inflation and keep the interest rates high. If just 300,000 people are removed from the labor force (either due to conscription or deportation) then the GDP could be cut by 0.2%…https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-moscow-attack-putin-immigration-labor-shortage-ukraine-war-2024-4
A Russian ship in Kaliningrad caught fire…
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1777343588323442924
Ukraine claimed credit for the operation…
https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1777371479899857385
650 km from Ukraine, a Russian radar with a range of 3000 km and 100 km in altitude was attacked…
https://twitter.com/aborealis940/status/1779089916514766969
Before and after satellite images of the flooding around one portion of Orsk…
https://twitter.com/Doktor_Klein/status/1779064380920885634
Protesters of the official response to the Orsk flooding might be held liable according to Russian prosecutors…
https://twitter.com/NatalkaKyiv/status/1777352406356861174
The flood from the dam that collapsed might flood the only production facility of the BMP…https://en.defence-ua.com/events/a_flood_may_stop_the_work_of_the_only_russias_ifv_manufacturer_official_map-10140.html
The audio of this video suggests that the poster doesn’t think these people will be sent to Ukraine…
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1778028914968805604
Orenburg is also impacted by floods…
https://twitter.com/Azovsouth/status/1778751631489642748
An overpass collapsed on a railroad…
https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1777351103891251616
Ukraine said they hit an aviation training and production center at an airbase in Borisoglebsk with two drones 330 km from the Ukrainian border…
https://twitter.com/UKikaski/status/1777645379908993206
An ore processing facility is hit…
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1778312346634526915
Ukrainian drones pushed Russian oil production to its lowest point since May of 2023. The damage to the refineries could be repaired in 4-8 weeks, which is a significant loss. The IEA echos the US concerns about the attacks on Russian refineries destabilizing the world energy market…https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/04/12/7450969/
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1778783383151161753
A former Ukrainian intelligence officer was hospitalized in Moscow…
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1778749029771296799
Russian farmers in Belgorod protect themselves against drones. I haven’t seen any Ukrainian drones attacking Russian tractors but I could have missed it…
https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1778924528183169425
A close-up of the car…
https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1778790077172179255
Confirmed Russian KIA’s by category: Green = volunteers Red = contract soldiers Purple = mobilized Orange = prisoners. These are just confirmed kills by name, not total kills. Still, it’s useful to see what types of troops are being killed…
https://twitter.com/bentanmy/status/1778660011214082518
***
A network of Russian volunteers has helped Ukrainian refugees from the occupied territory escape to the unoccupied lands. Alexander Demidenko belonged to the network, but he was not discreet. He staged a one-man protest in Belgorod at the beginning of Russia’s open invasion. When Russia passed the law that required independent media and NGO’s to register as foreign agents, he posted a note in his car that said, “I am a foreign agent.”
It is not illegal to aid Ukrainian refugees and at one time he had 27 sleeping in his house. But Russia has been cracking down on the volunteers and Demidenko was arrested at a checkpoint on the Ukrainian border by members of the Chechen Akhmat battalion. The pacifist was charged with illegal weapons possession. He spent six months in pre-trial detention while being tortured. Prison officials said he died on April 5th by suicide. His death certificate said the cause was not yet established…https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/apr/13/a-russian-pacifist-helped-ukrainians-flee-the-country-then-the-kremlin-caught-him?CMP=share_btn_url
***
Ukraine
Poltava was hit by a missile, killing one and wounding 16…
https://twitter.com/blue_eyedKeti/status/1777640365111095567
The attack on the 11th. The damage is being attributed to the lack of air defense missiles…
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1778407715531886680
The largest thermal power plant in Ukraine was destroyed…
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1778341445490856122
Ukrainian nuclear power needs hydro and coal power plants to mange energy fluctuations. Hydro power sources are being damaged and a lot of coal power plants are damaged or destroyed…
https://twitter.com/sumlenny/status/1778357706232856940
What is clear is that the Russians hit 32 D-20s: D-20 is a 70-year-old gun calibre 152mm. Both sides are using this type. What is not clear is the value these guns used to have because they have been parked there since 2017…
https://twitter.com/WarVehicle/status/1777752634234900932
Motor Sich in Zaporozhye has been attacked four times in the past and was attacked again in early April…
https://twitter.com/3_bm15/status/1778750058839646505
The bill to lower the mobilization age from 27 to 25 passed. The plan to allow long-serving troops to demobilize was taken out…
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1778338067184562454
Just three examples of an estimated 1 million unexploded ordinances in Ukraine…
https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1778669648503836805
There has been a lot of drone vs. drone combat. But now NAFO has a new fella…
https://twitter.com/TOGAjano21/status/1779135319096328544
(…to be continued…)
Don, your chart with fuel production by Russian refineries shows that currently production rate is just within the normal fluctuations. I mean the argument goes - look with more than 40 drones on the Morozovsk airbase, nobody knows if a single aircraft (out of 300) was damaged or not. But the strikes on Russian refineries have had similar negligible (up to now) impact on Russian fuel production. Just because they have taken serious precautions (gasoline export ban, negotiations with Kazakhstan and Belarus, etc) doesn’t mean that the impact has been that big. It’s more of a testament that the Russians have got serious about the war unlike the West. Anyway, me thinks that strikes on both airbases and refineries should continue.
Thanks Don!
Russia currently uses/loses much more tanks and IFVs than 6 months ago(that biiig mechanized assault on Vuhledar a year or so ago is now a daily routine) . I know that the conventional wisdom is that Russia is refurbishing old vehicles and the stock will end by say 2026. But I also see so many videos of T-90s and modern BMPs being destroyed so I started to doubt. What about the rate of production? Any insights about it? What enabled this change compared to 6-12 months ago - do the Russians have better logistics now, more facilities to repair, refurbish or produce, or more troops to put on these vehicles?