Thank you once again for all the updates Tom, Donald. With the way things have gone, just hoping it's not too late to soften the impact of Trump's presidency when the rotten old orange decides to pull the plug on Ukrainian aid.
I haven't been to this site in a long while. It is sad to see a major drop in quality.
If before one could find some very interesting analysis, especially regarding the air war over Ukraine,
now it is just endless rambling about genocidal Russians destroying apartment buildings, gazzilion of daily Russian losses and of course the faggot Ukrainian generals who apparently know nothing.
The Biden administration had bought some time to react to the changing geopolitical situation, but Europe wasted lots of time by dithering and not expanding defense spending quickly and giving contracts to the European military contractors to replenish EU/NATO arsenals for a war of attrition in European soil (and to support Ukraine). Hell, it's almost a thousand days since the full invasion of Russia in Ukraine, and still we don't see factories producing thousands of artillery shells, dozens of jets and tanks etc.
EU countries debt to GDP is now around 80%. That's not really that bad compared to most rich countries. US has 120%. It's not the debt that's the problem.
Thanks to the dollar, the USA is making the whole world pay the price of its debt. As for Europe and France in particular, we are on the brink of a major political and social crisis. The crises and social movements of recent years have taught nothing to our dear elites who are incapable of questioning themselves. As soon as there is a problem, we only talk about taxes and duties while France is the most taxed country in the world. Unfortunately, domestic problems quickly make us forget what is happening abroad. The forgetfulness and contempt displayed for the working and middle classes who "are too stupid to vote well" by the right-thinking right-wing and left-wing parties led to the election of Donald Trump in the USA. The same phenomenon of radicalization is happening today in France and Europe, we saw it with the last European elections, but also in Germany, Holland, etc. This too risks changing the situation for support for Ukraine. The year 2025 will be decisive. For precise figures on debt: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/fr/web/products-euro-indicators/w/2-22102024-ap
France is on the brink of crisis for at least 15 years now, or maybe it's 30 years, or wait, maybe 50. I'm not saying it's not true, because it is true, but also it's not really a new thing now. And anyway, it's not strictly about the debt itself, that was my point. Germany's debt is low, and yet its economy growth is stunted for years now.
I understand your point of view and I agree. Debt is not the only parameter to take into account but it is becoming a major issue in France that cannot be resolved with the recipes used in the past. A real paradigm shift is needed.
That is what a lot of people wanted in US too. And hence they voted for the guy with the biggest flamethrower. And damn the consequences. Bit you are right, there is a need to think differently.
Debt is highly important. Western governments have budgetary deficits of 1-6% per year. An increase în interest from 1% to 5% of a debt 80%GDP will mean adițional 3.2% deficit.
So the government will slash spending. Like weapon factorul because social spending is vital în elections.
Thanks for all updates. Informative as usual. I think the big question now is whether or not Europe shapes up. We should. I saw the comment on Norway Conservative party proposing to trippel the support. Other has actually proposed a factor of ten. We should do it, war profeteering as we are, and I think we will, if only the left sosialist party could see beyond its traditional anti americanism and support some anti Russian activities. But I have hope, the government is being pressured on this. Problem is of course that Norway cannot give so much material support. It will be money.
Money really isnt the big problem. The problem is that Europe lacks the infrastrukture to produce. If you want to build munition factory it takes some time, Even with money. Also since everybody and his uncle is rearming all will run into lack of key resources. You simply cannot produce 50 years of stock piling in three months. Money aside. Regarding angra citizens, yes Europe has them. All countries has. Its partly a land versus city conflict, partly an education vs non educated and add in a shitload of other local troubles as well. But Europe doesnt necessarily have more than, say US. Or China. The Chines are of course better oppressed, But still.
Europe buys energy and raw materials. It also lacks the money due to bad decisions for 30 years.
So Europe can not re-arm as the weapons will not be sold abroad to get more energy, raw materials and money. A Leopard în Germany or Ukraine is a net economic loss while the same tank în Saudi Arabia makes Europe stronger.
Regarding raw materials we are in agreement. Regarding energy? Not so sure. Do you include Norway in you defintion of Europe or not? It is not a rethoric question, Norway formally isnt part of the EU. But if so, do add Norway to the mix and the energy picture changes. Still I agree that we cannot QuickType overcome all the bad decisions, lack of raw materiale etc. But we need to start.
If you opened a new production line for one CV90 or Leopard 2 tank it would take 18-24 months to complete it. There's a long lead time even if you opened 100 new production lines.
For artillery shells, it's not just the production of the shells itself. The pipeline for all the raw materials has to be expanded, too. Most of Europe's nitrocellulose comes from China. They are trying to eliminate any dependency on China but that is a long process.
What's worrying me, is an apparent lack of urgency by European/NATO countries to go ahead and start a serious re-armament program.
I still remember two years ago Chancellor Scholz announcing a 100 billion EUR armament program for Germany, greeted by thunderous applause in Bundestag. Now? Crickets...
On the other hand things are happening. I think, as usual during this war, Germany is terrible at communicating what it actually is doing and everyone acts like it's doing much less than it actually is.
On this case, for example, Rheinmetall is building a new ammo factory in Germany, having secured a big order of ammo from the German government (and others too). Overall production capacity of the company was already heavily increased compared to 2 years ago and is still ramping up.
Overall, despite all the complaints, artillery ammo production in Europe is now actually higher than in US.
So, of course it could be better, it should be better, but it's also not like nothing is being done.
Lots of such long processes. Management theories like just in time and its valuation of flow as opposed to stockpiling has a lot to answer for. But we are where we are. We should open some new factories. And we should really really invest in Ukraine armament industry. We might Even make money out of it.
It is Mike Walz. Loyalty to Trump is a major factor in any decision made by Trump.
With Rubio appointed to State we have two of the initial supporters of aid to Ukraine who have 'swung' to the Trump view of 'a negotiated settlement.' Which is in line with the Neo-Isolationist views of most of the MAGA Republican base.
With Rubio at State, Stefanik at the UN, and Huckabee as ambassador to Israel that also shows where policy in the Mideast is headed.
It will be interesting to see is how Trump's desire to win over the Saudis who just hosted a summit on Gaza and Lebanon that condemned Israel's conduct as genocidal and called for a Palestinian state the encompassed the West Band and Gaza with its capitol in East Jerusalem. will impact American unconditional support for Israel.
There are new elections in Germany in January. It is highly likely that Merz from the CDU will become the new Chancellor. Merz is a strong supporter of a better European defense strategy, more spending for NATO and faster deliveries of promised military equipment to Ukraine. He has also been calling for the delivery of TAURUS cruise missiles for some time.
He has also always criticized Scholz for his hesitant attitude when it comes to the delivery of military equipment.
In terms of character, Merz is the complete opposite of Scholz. Merz does not avoid confrontation and will be very self-confident towards Trump and will show him a clear, unambiguous line. For help for Ukraine and a clear stance towards Trump, Merz is the best thing that can happen to Europe in the current situation.
Merz is basically just as much of an asshole as Trump. Both are dominant.
On the other hand, isn't it likely the new coalition will have to be wide, meaning there would be different interests fighting about everything, which could end up meaning less support for Ukraine, not more?
I don't think so... In Germany, there was a grand coalition between the CDU and SPD for many years before the last election. And in those years, there were also many bad decisions, but many more projects were implemented and the economy grew for years. Germany was doing very well in those years, even if many people say otherwise.
It looks like there will be another grand coalition (CDU+SPD). That would definitely be helpful in getting out of the crisis. So after the new election in January, things will go in a positive direction again. And, as I said, with Merz, someone will be in power who is on an equal footing with Trump. He will definitely not let him walk all over him.
Merz is not the type to let anyone tell him what to do. Trump and Putin will certainly not be happy about Merz being elected, because then there will be a counterpart to them who is on an equal footing with them and who will keep them in their place.
через 5-6 ефективних менеджерів зобов'язати ЗЄіБєнєю розпочати переговори й закінчити війну з підписаним договором про відкладення звільнення тимчасово окупуваних територій України на колись, на потім, можливо коли-небудь, відповідно до вимог США однако.
Результат:
з огляду на здачу України в світі починається шибко скрєпне нівелювання, дискредитування, опускання США як гаранта світового порядку,
спускання Будапештського меморандуму в унітаз, однако,
тут же атака Китаю на Тайвань шибко,
Північної Кореї на Південну однако,
шибко Іран починає тощо,
офіційне й шибко безкарне застосування однако скрєпної атомної зброї!
Наказ:
етааа, шибко за работу, таваріщі!
Підпис здєсь:
онако Хайль шибко Путіна!
оперативная псевдоніма Ху-ло однако.
46. Психологічний портрет Путіна. Аналітичні матеріали політичного психолога
"It remains to be seen how Musk will manage his international relations and how much influence he will have in a Trump administration both domestically and internationally, but the influence will be directed at increasing his own power. The well-being of US and Ukrainian citizens is not his priority."
"The fact that the only time Article 5 of NATO was invoked was after the 9/11 attack when NATO came to the aid of the US is not an argument that will sway Trump. The fact that collective security is both cheaper and more effective for the US than self-imposed world isolation is not something he would consider."
... loving this post. Granted I have limited knowledge, but I have to say I agree with these statements.
Thank you once again for all the updates Tom, Donald. With the way things have gone, just hoping it's not too late to soften the impact of Trump's presidency when the rotten old orange decides to pull the plug on Ukrainian aid.
I haven't been to this site in a long while. It is sad to see a major drop in quality.
If before one could find some very interesting analysis, especially regarding the air war over Ukraine,
now it is just endless rambling about genocidal Russians destroying apartment buildings, gazzilion of daily Russian losses and of course the faggot Ukrainian generals who apparently know nothing.
Worthless Scheiss.
Cool. At least you can now avoid this blog, and never read it again.
Thak you very much.
I expect that Musk and Putin and Trump will quickly attack each other.
There are too many big egos involved.
The Biden administration had bought some time to react to the changing geopolitical situation, but Europe wasted lots of time by dithering and not expanding defense spending quickly and giving contracts to the European military contractors to replenish EU/NATO arsenals for a war of attrition in European soil (and to support Ukraine). Hell, it's almost a thousand days since the full invasion of Russia in Ukraine, and still we don't see factories producing thousands of artillery shells, dozens of jets and tanks etc.
Re-armament requires money ( European states have big debts), raw materials ( China) and energy ( Russia). So not very easy.
Europe has not spent resources on weapons and they nonetheless have stagnant GDPs plus angry citizens.
Europe is now suffering from lost markets (Russia through sanctions, China throigh competiti9n) and high energy prices.
EU countries debt to GDP is now around 80%. That's not really that bad compared to most rich countries. US has 120%. It's not the debt that's the problem.
Thanks to the dollar, the USA is making the whole world pay the price of its debt. As for Europe and France in particular, we are on the brink of a major political and social crisis. The crises and social movements of recent years have taught nothing to our dear elites who are incapable of questioning themselves. As soon as there is a problem, we only talk about taxes and duties while France is the most taxed country in the world. Unfortunately, domestic problems quickly make us forget what is happening abroad. The forgetfulness and contempt displayed for the working and middle classes who "are too stupid to vote well" by the right-thinking right-wing and left-wing parties led to the election of Donald Trump in the USA. The same phenomenon of radicalization is happening today in France and Europe, we saw it with the last European elections, but also in Germany, Holland, etc. This too risks changing the situation for support for Ukraine. The year 2025 will be decisive. For precise figures on debt: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/fr/web/products-euro-indicators/w/2-22102024-ap
https://www.touteleurope.eu/economie-et-social/la-pressure-fiscale-dans-l-union-europeenne/
France is on the brink of crisis for at least 15 years now, or maybe it's 30 years, or wait, maybe 50. I'm not saying it's not true, because it is true, but also it's not really a new thing now. And anyway, it's not strictly about the debt itself, that was my point. Germany's debt is low, and yet its economy growth is stunted for years now.
I understand your point of view and I agree. Debt is not the only parameter to take into account but it is becoming a major issue in France that cannot be resolved with the recipes used in the past. A real paradigm shift is needed.
That is what a lot of people wanted in US too. And hence they voted for the guy with the biggest flamethrower. And damn the consequences. Bit you are right, there is a need to think differently.
Yes, you are right that the world has shared the burden of US debt. But let Musk dismantle the Fed and Go for BitCoin…. That would show them? Not.
Debt is highly important. Western governments have budgetary deficits of 1-6% per year. An increase în interest from 1% to 5% of a debt 80%GDP will mean adițional 3.2% deficit.
So the government will slash spending. Like weapon factorul because social spending is vital în elections.
Thanks for all updates. Informative as usual. I think the big question now is whether or not Europe shapes up. We should. I saw the comment on Norway Conservative party proposing to trippel the support. Other has actually proposed a factor of ten. We should do it, war profeteering as we are, and I think we will, if only the left sosialist party could see beyond its traditional anti americanism and support some anti Russian activities. But I have hope, the government is being pressured on this. Problem is of course that Norway cannot give so much material support. It will be money.
Money really isnt the big problem. The problem is that Europe lacks the infrastrukture to produce. If you want to build munition factory it takes some time, Even with money. Also since everybody and his uncle is rearming all will run into lack of key resources. You simply cannot produce 50 years of stock piling in three months. Money aside. Regarding angra citizens, yes Europe has them. All countries has. Its partly a land versus city conflict, partly an education vs non educated and add in a shitload of other local troubles as well. But Europe doesnt necessarily have more than, say US. Or China. The Chines are of course better oppressed, But still.
Europe has enough energy for the re armament. But time and raw materiales are needed and that is more difficult.
Europe buys energy and raw materials. It also lacks the money due to bad decisions for 30 years.
So Europe can not re-arm as the weapons will not be sold abroad to get more energy, raw materials and money. A Leopard în Germany or Ukraine is a net economic loss while the same tank în Saudi Arabia makes Europe stronger.
Regarding raw materials we are in agreement. Regarding energy? Not so sure. Do you include Norway in you defintion of Europe or not? It is not a rethoric question, Norway formally isnt part of the EU. But if so, do add Norway to the mix and the energy picture changes. Still I agree that we cannot QuickType overcome all the bad decisions, lack of raw materiale etc. But we need to start.
I include UK, Norway and Cyprus. Europe is still buying huge amounts of oil, gas, uranium from abroad. Coal is something sufficient but underutilized.
If you opened a new production line for one CV90 or Leopard 2 tank it would take 18-24 months to complete it. There's a long lead time even if you opened 100 new production lines.
For artillery shells, it's not just the production of the shells itself. The pipeline for all the raw materials has to be expanded, too. Most of Europe's nitrocellulose comes from China. They are trying to eliminate any dependency on China but that is a long process.
What's worrying me, is an apparent lack of urgency by European/NATO countries to go ahead and start a serious re-armament program.
I still remember two years ago Chancellor Scholz announcing a 100 billion EUR armament program for Germany, greeted by thunderous applause in Bundestag. Now? Crickets...
On the other hand things are happening. I think, as usual during this war, Germany is terrible at communicating what it actually is doing and everyone acts like it's doing much less than it actually is.
On this case, for example, Rheinmetall is building a new ammo factory in Germany, having secured a big order of ammo from the German government (and others too). Overall production capacity of the company was already heavily increased compared to 2 years ago and is still ramping up.
Overall, despite all the complaints, artillery ammo production in Europe is now actually higher than in US.
So, of course it could be better, it should be better, but it's also not like nothing is being done.
They are also building a nitrocellulose factor in Germany.
Lots of such long processes. Management theories like just in time and its valuation of flow as opposed to stockpiling has a lot to answer for. But we are where we are. We should open some new factories. And we should really really invest in Ukraine armament industry. We might Even make money out of it.
It is Mike Walz. Loyalty to Trump is a major factor in any decision made by Trump.
With Rubio appointed to State we have two of the initial supporters of aid to Ukraine who have 'swung' to the Trump view of 'a negotiated settlement.' Which is in line with the Neo-Isolationist views of most of the MAGA Republican base.
With Rubio at State, Stefanik at the UN, and Huckabee as ambassador to Israel that also shows where policy in the Mideast is headed.
It will be interesting to see is how Trump's desire to win over the Saudis who just hosted a summit on Gaza and Lebanon that condemned Israel's conduct as genocidal and called for a Palestinian state the encompassed the West Band and Gaza with its capitol in East Jerusalem. will impact American unconditional support for Israel.
There are new elections in Germany in January. It is highly likely that Merz from the CDU will become the new Chancellor. Merz is a strong supporter of a better European defense strategy, more spending for NATO and faster deliveries of promised military equipment to Ukraine. He has also been calling for the delivery of TAURUS cruise missiles for some time.
He has also always criticized Scholz for his hesitant attitude when it comes to the delivery of military equipment.
In terms of character, Merz is the complete opposite of Scholz. Merz does not avoid confrontation and will be very self-confident towards Trump and will show him a clear, unambiguous line. For help for Ukraine and a clear stance towards Trump, Merz is the best thing that can happen to Europe in the current situation.
Merz is basically just as much of an asshole as Trump. Both are dominant.
It takes an asshole to deal with an asshole.
On the other hand, isn't it likely the new coalition will have to be wide, meaning there would be different interests fighting about everything, which could end up meaning less support for Ukraine, not more?
I don't think so... In Germany, there was a grand coalition between the CDU and SPD for many years before the last election. And in those years, there were also many bad decisions, but many more projects were implemented and the economy grew for years. Germany was doing very well in those years, even if many people say otherwise.
It looks like there will be another grand coalition (CDU+SPD). That would definitely be helpful in getting out of the crisis. So after the new election in January, things will go in a positive direction again. And, as I said, with Merz, someone will be in power who is on an equal footing with Trump. He will definitely not let him walk all over him.
Merz is not the type to let anyone tell him what to do. Trump and Putin will certainly not be happy about Merz being elected, because then there will be a counterpart to them who is on an equal footing with them and who will keep them in their place.
Thanks again Don and Tom!
Як коштом України РФ може опустити США?
Москва
Кремль
ШИФРОВКА
Резидентурам США, Канади
Резидентурі ГРУ в Україні
Резидентурі СВР в Україні
Резидентурі ФСБ в Україні
Цілком таємно
Прочитати, запам'ятати, носій знищити
Як коштом України РФ може опустити США?
Завдання:
етааа, ми шибко жолтая азіята, однако, можемо скрєпно опустити білих європейців і англо-саксів.
Маємо:
Будапештський, шибко, меморандум, що з понтом захищає територіальну цілісність і недоторканість України, однако.
Завдання: однако шибко дискредитувати США як гаранта про цілісність і недоторканість України, і не лише України.
Наші сексоти:
етаааа, оперативні псевдоніми Деменція і Довбой-б, тобто Трампмп і Маскск шибко. І, звісно, ЗЄіБєня однако.
Психологічний портрет Дональда Трампа. Psychological portrait of Donald Trump.
https://zemlj.blogspot.com/2016/11/101.html?m=1
Діємо:
через 5-6 ефективних менеджерів зобов'язати ЗЄіБєнєю розпочати переговори й закінчити війну з підписаним договором про відкладення звільнення тимчасово окупуваних територій України на колись, на потім, можливо коли-небудь, відповідно до вимог США однако.
Результат:
з огляду на здачу України в світі починається шибко скрєпне нівелювання, дискредитування, опускання США як гаранта світового порядку,
спускання Будапештського меморандуму в унітаз, однако,
тут же атака Китаю на Тайвань шибко,
Північної Кореї на Південну однако,
шибко Іран починає тощо,
офіційне й шибко безкарне застосування однако скрєпної атомної зброї!
Наказ:
етааа, шибко за работу, таваріщі!
Підпис здєсь:
онако Хайль шибко Путіна!
оперативная псевдоніма Ху-ло однако.
46. Психологічний портрет Путіна. Аналітичні матеріали політичного психолога
http://zemlj.blogspot.com/2014/03/blog-post_697.html
Donald I'm a maga supporter and also a supporter of Ukraine. Don't lump all of us maga supporters as anti unkraine.
"It remains to be seen how Musk will manage his international relations and how much influence he will have in a Trump administration both domestically and internationally, but the influence will be directed at increasing his own power. The well-being of US and Ukrainian citizens is not his priority."
"The fact that the only time Article 5 of NATO was invoked was after the 9/11 attack when NATO came to the aid of the US is not an argument that will sway Trump. The fact that collective security is both cheaper and more effective for the US than self-imposed world isolation is not something he would consider."
... loving this post. Granted I have limited knowledge, but I have to say I agree with these statements.