Don's Weekly, 12 November 2024: Part 4

by Donald Hill

(…continued from Part 3…)

***

Diplomacy

An alliance with the powerful is never to be trusted - Phaedrus

The election of Trump brings lots of uncertainty and there is a wide range of possibilities.

The non-MAGA Republicans and Democrats support Ukraine and wish to continue aid. It is possible that Trump might support aid in return for trillions of dollars of Ukrainian resources. That would be an additional bonus to the US, since 90% of the money they allocate to aid Ukraine is spent in the US to build ammo and equipment.

Trump’s team has floated a plan that calls for freezing the current front lines and creating a buffer zone manned and paid for by UK and European troops. It also would have a provision that Ukraine could not join NATO for 20 years. This would benefit Putin by allowing Russia to keep its gains in Ukraine and slowly rebuild its army at a time when its economy and manpower is under extreme pressure. The peace plan makes no mention of whether the US sanctions would be lifted or stay in place.

Back in June, Russia called the US an enemy. Now, Putin has congratulated Trump and says he is ready for discussions, saying, "Russia didn't ruin relations with the U.S. and is open to reviving them, but the ball is in the Americans' court." As a private citizen, Trump had as many as seven phone calls with Putin since leaving office.

Musk provided $130 million to Trump’s campaign and Trump says Musk will be part of the government. Tesla cars are produced in China and Musk has said that without trade barriers Chinese electric cars would demolish their competition, but then he came out against Bidens tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. Musk also had conversations with Putin over space, SpaceX and geopolitics. Putin asked Musk not to activate the Starlink satellite system over Taiwan as a favor to China, and Musk suggested that Taiwan should become a special administrative region of China. He also suggested that Russia should retain permanent control of Crimea and Ukraine should not be part of NATO. Starlink received $885 million in US subsidies but Musk mocked Zelensky’s request for aid and said Ukraine couldn’t win the war. X/Twitter has become the largest platform for Russian disinformation. It remains to be seen how Musk will manage his international relations and how much influence he will have in a Trump administration both domestically and internationally, but the influence will be directed at increasing his own power. The well-being of US and Ukrainian citizens is not his priority.

The current House chair of the Armed Services committee is being considered for the secretary of Defense. He is a non-MAGA Republican that strongly supports Ukraine, which MAGA politicians vehemently oppose. On the other hand, he’s opposed troop access to abortion, diversity in the ranks and Pentagon efforts to reduce damage to the climate so that might buy him some good will. He also advocated for the Space Force, which was a Trump favorite project. Another candidate for the post is Mike Waltz, a long-time Trump ally who opposes China and favored a multi-generational war in Afghanistan. On the other hand, the Republicans are likely to gain control of the House, as well, but if they do it will probably be with a small majority. This makes it less likely that Trump promotes a House member to his administration as it might jeopardize his legislative agenda. Mike Pompeo and Niki Haley were previous members of his administration and support Ukraine, but Trump said they won’t be part of his administration.

Trump talked about pulling out of NATO before and a bill sponsored by Republican Marco Rubio and Democrat Tim Kaine passed requiring any decision to leave NATO to have approval from 2/3 of the senate or to be authorized through an act of Congress. Trump doesn’t believe in checks and balances and thinks he is the sole authority on foreign relations. He withdrew from the Open Skies treaty without the required notification and there were no consequences. Only entities with standing in the case could sue over a withdrawal from NATO and Republicans in the Senate and House would not support such a move. With moderate and extreme conservatives in control of the Supreme Court, it may not matter if they did. Even if the US does not withdraw from NATO, Trump could still withdraw actual support of the organization. The best chance to prevent a withdrawal would depend on who he appoints as advisor. If the advisor in question supports the concept of NATO and can convince Trump that membership will ultimately provide him with more influence and power - then the US will remain in NATO. The fact that the only time Article 5 of NATO was invoked was after the 9/11 attack when NATO came to the aid of the US is not an argument that will sway Trump. The fact that collective security is both cheaper and more effective for the US than self-imposed world isolation is not something he would consider.

Whether the US remains in NATO or not, it is in the UK’s and EU’s interest to expand the production capabilities of their defense industries. Even with stable alliances, the nations of NATO, including the US, do not have enough ammo and equipment to sustain a war of moderate length against a peer or near-peer adversary. Without the US, it is in Europe’s self-interest to protect itself from regional threats in a potentially volatile political landscape. An increase in defense spending would also help any Trump advisors that are interested in convincing him to stay in the NATO alliance.

Over the decades, US reliability has suffered. Stefan Korshak offers a perspective from Ukraine in two parts: Part 1 and Part 2.

***

Since July 11th, 106 Shahed drones and 1 Orlan drone crossed into Belarus. The rate is also increasing: 9 in July, 12 in August, 27 in September and 49 in October. On November 1st, when this report was posted, 9 drones entered Belarus. Six drones were shot down and crashed in Belarus and one crashed in Latvia after flying 500 km across Belarus. Dozens more are believed to have crashed in Belarus. Lukashenka blames the activity on inexperienced drone operators and EW activity. Back on August 10th, a Ukrainian diplomat was summoned to answer for Belarusian allegations of Ukrainian drone violations.

Norway’s Conservative Party would like to triple Norway’s aide to Ukraine to $4 billion.

An exiled Belarusian activist has a history of conducting pranks in Russia to highlight the “fascistization of Russian society.” Previous pranks convinced schools to send birthday greetings with pictures and quotes from Stepan Bandera, a WW2 Ukrainian partisan that was assassinated in Germany by the Soviet Union in 1959. The activist also convinced several schools to hold marches in his own honor, as he presented himself as a hero fighting in Ukraine. School teachers in the Moscow area were also convinced to conduct a municipal cleanup day while carrying signs of slogans used by the Nazis in concentration camps. In his latest effort, he used fake government orders for teachers to wear tinfoil hats with the Russian flag that were supposed to protect against foreign enemies. The fake orders also told them to post their thoughts and pictures of the event.

Equipment

The US will send the last $6 billion of the aid package to Ukraine before inauguration day. They can only send items already in stock and some of the money was waiting for production to be completed. Instead, they will use some of their stores reserved for national defense and future production will eventually replace those items. Any items that don't reach Ukraine by the time Trump is in power can potentially be recalled.

A Vampire drone survived an impact with a Russian drone.

A Lancet drone is examined for booby traps.

A Russian directional mine similar to the US Claymore is modified to become a Victim Operated Improvised Explosive Device.

A video for those interested in a job in artillery.