I've talked to the people from Zaporizhzhia last week. They told me that they are living in the city and awaiting the death. Every week the Russian airstrikes take people's lives and nothing will change in the future. You just expect your end. It was sad to hear.
when it comes to not happening rail transports it doesn't matter anymore, if your coal mining company is profitable or not. If you don't get your product to the market, you can't sell it and hence go bankrupt, because you are running out of cash. So you have to lay off your workers, that are then becoming more available to the meat grinder due to the lack of job market options.
However, not delivered coal inside Russia implies that many homes will be either cold in winter or have to pay substantially more for heating than before. In a fixed price regime that has also the potential that cole fired heating or power plants will go offline, because the product is there, but not in the right place.
The other big bulk product that is becoming to cheap to transport is food, especially grain. That can become another story as farmers need to sell their product on the international market. For that it needs to be transported by rail to the ports. If that is not happening, we are looking at the same problems as in Ukraine. The difference though is, that Russia is the biggest wheat exporter. The last big drop in that field happended in 2010. Afterwards the Arab Spring happened as revolution is best fuelled by a population fearing starvation.
Russian wheat is preferred to Ukrainian wheat because it is cheaper. They are the world's larget exporter of wheat (16%, edging out Australia and Canada at 15% each. Ukraine is sixth at 5%). When Russia was attacking Ukrainian wheat shipments it directly impacted countries that import food. For that reason, attacking Russian wheat shipments isn't an option.
The important part here is, that it doesn't effect every sector equally. So if railway capacity goes down by X%, that is not the same for every sector. Products with a high cost per value of the transported item are the least profitable and won't be transported anymore. That is the reason why Amazon chose books and is still not in the food area (next to that food is rotting). The least profitable products are normally that of a daily use especially for the poor (cole, food). As there is not much profit in this products and wheat for example is also not centraliseable (the reason it is not under the oligarchy direct control), there is also not much money for bribery. This can become ugly.
Regarding the wheat : Yes, a lot is close to the Black sea, but not all:
Much ado about nothing. I remember being at a gas station in Southern WVa in the mid 70’s there was no obvious restroom I asked the attendant he pointed to a break in the trees. Lo and behold there was an outhouse I chucked. I was very familiar with outhouses. I knew people who lived in houses without the modern stuff back then.
Thanks
I've talked to the people from Zaporizhzhia last week. They told me that they are living in the city and awaiting the death. Every week the Russian airstrikes take people's lives and nothing will change in the future. You just expect your end. It was sad to hear.
Rare glimpse into Russian (Tatar) mind: Alsu Kurmasheva was imprisoned Kazan, Tatarstan when visiting her mother. Later, she was release withing US - Russia prisoners swap. She said she could not tell to her fellow prisoners, mostly criminals, that she has U.S. passport, too, because they hate U.S. and West, brainwashed by TV. https://www.irozhlas.cz/zpravy-svet/putinova-vezenkyne-misto-zachodu-dira-v-podlaze-spina-zapachajici-voda-k-piti-a_2411120600_job
If someone still hopes in regime change in Russia (like some Russian opposition leaders do), then it would not be easy to do.
I just hope Russia leaves Ukraine.
Yes, mee too. Change of regime in Russia could be a way how to do it without more bloodshed. Putin himself would not do it.
Dear Don,
when it comes to not happening rail transports it doesn't matter anymore, if your coal mining company is profitable or not. If you don't get your product to the market, you can't sell it and hence go bankrupt, because you are running out of cash. So you have to lay off your workers, that are then becoming more available to the meat grinder due to the lack of job market options.
However, not delivered coal inside Russia implies that many homes will be either cold in winter or have to pay substantially more for heating than before. In a fixed price regime that has also the potential that cole fired heating or power plants will go offline, because the product is there, but not in the right place.
The other big bulk product that is becoming to cheap to transport is food, especially grain. That can become another story as farmers need to sell their product on the international market. For that it needs to be transported by rail to the ports. If that is not happening, we are looking at the same problems as in Ukraine. The difference though is, that Russia is the biggest wheat exporter. The last big drop in that field happended in 2010. Afterwards the Arab Spring happened as revolution is best fuelled by a population fearing starvation.
Not really a bright forecast.
It's true. Russian rail capacity impacts domestic and international availability. A small drop in capacity can impact their economy.
17% of Russia's energy production comes from coal (46% from natural gas). I imagine that shipments to power plants will be a priority.
https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/russia/
Most of the Russian wheat is produced fairly close to the Black Sea, which will help with lower rail transport time.
https://ipad.fas.usda.gov/rssiws/al/crop_production_maps/Russia/Russia_Total_Wheat.jpg
Russian wheat is preferred to Ukrainian wheat because it is cheaper. They are the world's larget exporter of wheat (16%, edging out Australia and Canada at 15% each. Ukraine is sixth at 5%). When Russia was attacking Ukrainian wheat shipments it directly impacted countries that import food. For that reason, attacking Russian wheat shipments isn't an option.
https://www.worldstopexports.com/wheat-exports-country/
The important part here is, that it doesn't effect every sector equally. So if railway capacity goes down by X%, that is not the same for every sector. Products with a high cost per value of the transported item are the least profitable and won't be transported anymore. That is the reason why Amazon chose books and is still not in the food area (next to that food is rotting). The least profitable products are normally that of a daily use especially for the poor (cole, food). As there is not much profit in this products and wheat for example is also not centraliseable (the reason it is not under the oligarchy direct control), there is also not much money for bribery. This can become ugly.
Regarding the wheat : Yes, a lot is close to the Black sea, but not all:
https://agroatlas.ru/en/content/cultural/Triticum_aestivum_winter_K/map/index.html
Furthermore, the food needs to be transported to the urban centers in Russia, which are north (Moscow, St. Petersburg).
Very interesting detail on the railways. That link on assault soldiers was also enlightening. No longer an elite; now seen as a punishment 🤷🏼♂️
Much ado about nothing. I remember being at a gas station in Southern WVa in the mid 70’s there was no obvious restroom I asked the attendant he pointed to a break in the trees. Lo and behold there was an outhouse I chucked. I was very familiar with outhouses. I knew people who lived in houses without the modern stuff back then.
Y a qué vas con esa anécdota?