Don's Weekly, 12 November 2024: Part 3
by Donald Hill
(…continued from Part 2…)
***
Russia
For a while there have been reports that Russian railroads could only transport 93% of the cargo that needs to be moved. There are now reports that the situation is getting worse. Using Russian data, the author created a chart showing how many millions of tons of cargo was moved each month.
The problem began in 2013 when the railroad eliminated their maintenance department and outsourced the repairs. They’ve been behind in maintaining their equipment ever since. On top of that, the fleet of locomotives is aging and sanctions made parts even more scarce. Then Uralvagonzavod started producing only military vehicles and no longer supported the deteriorating locomotive fleet. 100,000 cars are being stored on sidings and other locations because there aren’t enough locomotives to use them. The military and larger companies owned by oligarchs will get priority service. The companies denied priority will suffer, as will the economy.
Just under 30% of the freight moved is coal. The railroad lost €500 million in the first four months of 2024. Because coal has low profitability, the railroad is seeking to transport more profitable cargos instead. Coal from the Kuzbass company might be shipped as long as their more profitable non-coal products are also included in a deal.
About a quarter of Russia's coal companies were losing money in 2022. In early 2024 the number of unprofitable coal companies rose to 46%. Productivity is low because of the nationwide labor shortage and labor costs rose by 42% in an attempt to try and attract workers. If the railroads reduce coal shipments then even more coal companies will lose money, as will the economy.
With each month, the Russian economy comes under more pressure.
***
Russians have launched missile attacks from the Caspian Sea before, including last July. Last week, Ukraine attacked the Caspian Sea fleet. Initial reports say two missile ships were damaged but no damage has been confirmed. A satellite image showed that a dock was blackened by an explosion. The missile frigates have a displacement of just under 2,000 tons when fully loaded. Naval vessels under 3,000 tons can travel between the Caspian and Azov Seas via the Volga-Don Canal.
Russia said they intercepted 70 drones in various regions, 34 of which were around Moscow, making it the largest Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow. The only initial report of damage was an ammunition warehouse in Bryansk being set on fire.
At least 13 drones attacked a chemical plant in Tula that produced gunpowder. One was reported shot down and 8 hit the plant. Videos of nighttime explosions and daytime fires that produced orange smoke. An electrical power line was also damaged.
Russia has been trying to place incendiary devices on western airplanes and managed to start two fires at DHL shipping hubs in Germany and Britain last summer. This is part of an ongoing effort of vandalism, terrorism and assassinations.
Two executives of an American company were arrested for sending sensitive technology to Russia that was banned by sanctions. They sent the equipment to addresses in Finland, Turkey and Kazakhstan and the equipment was sent there to Russia.
A Russian blogger says assault soldiers often die within 2-4 weeks of signing a contract.
***
Ukraine
It’s difficult to predict how cold winter will be in Ukraine. What is known is that Russia’s sustained attacks on their energy grid reduced their power production by over two thirds. In August, over 200 missiles and drones damaged or destroyed 8 power plants and over 800 heat supply facilities. The demand for energy will increase with the need for heat and power production cannot meet it. Some sections of the power grid will be turned off so the needs of other sections can be fulfilled. These blackouts for cities will rotate and are expected to last 8-14 hours a day and could possibly last as long as 20 hours a day.
Western allies are trying to raise €1 billion through pledges and money already committed with Germany leading the effort at €219 million. They will also export power to Ukraine…but only 0.4 GW. This will likely be Ukraine’s most difficult winter yet.
Ukraine is repairing its least damaged power facilities first, but it takes a year to build a transformer and there are not enough in the world for sale. Ukraine stores transformers outside its borders to prevent them from being attacked. On the other hand, 90% of the coal power plants were damaged or destroyed and 70% of them are on track to being repaired before the cold weather arrives.
There have been at least 124 instances (and rising) in which Russians killed Ukrainian prisoners. Many of those instances resulted in the deaths of multiple Ukrainians. The rate of executions increased at the end of 2023 and continued to so in 2024. Donetsk had the highest number of murders with 62 soldiers being killed.
***
(…to be concluded in the Part 4…)
I've talked to the people from Zaporizhzhia last week. They told me that they are living in the city and awaiting the death. Every week the Russian airstrikes take people's lives and nothing will change in the future. You just expect your end. It was sad to hear.
Thanks