(…continued from Part 3…) Equipment Germany is delivering over 4,000 120mm mortar rounds a month. Ukraine is producing 20,000 rounds a month in 60mm, 82mm and 120mm calibers. The 120 mm rounds are particularly important to the 3rd Assault Brigade and Avdiivka right now since there is a shortage of 155mm shells…
I know it’s better to be safe than sorry but it’s concerning that Ukraine is building defensive lines generally behind the current lines. That sounds expensive and exhausting and I doubt they’d be doing it unless there’s a chance such lines in the rear are needed… they aren’t digging for the good exercise
It's risk management: What is the risk? What is the likelihood the event will happen? What would be the impact of the event? Given the impact, whatever the likelihood, it is indeed better to be safe than sorry.
The Russians aren't going to break through and overrun Ukraine. Territory is important, but more important than territory is the preservation of Ukraine's capabilities and the attrition of Russian equipment and manpower. Prepared defenses on chosen terrain can maximize those effects.
Ukraine is only producing 20 000 mortar rounds per month today. The first economy in the EU like Germany will produce 16 666 shells per month in the third year after starting. Ukraine is considering to increase the production, but Germany thinks it's good enough for the next decade. It's all you should know about a forecast horizon.
I love the way this is done with diagrams which are then overlaid on photographs of real terrain. Briliant!
I know it’s better to be safe than sorry but it’s concerning that Ukraine is building defensive lines generally behind the current lines. That sounds expensive and exhausting and I doubt they’d be doing it unless there’s a chance such lines in the rear are needed… they aren’t digging for the good exercise
It's risk management: What is the risk? What is the likelihood the event will happen? What would be the impact of the event? Given the impact, whatever the likelihood, it is indeed better to be safe than sorry.
The Russians aren't going to break through and overrun Ukraine. Territory is important, but more important than territory is the preservation of Ukraine's capabilities and the attrition of Russian equipment and manpower. Prepared defenses on chosen terrain can maximize those effects.
What alternative do u propose?
Well, the worst thing is that Ukraine started building these lines in 2024 and not in 2022 or (most preferably!) before 2021.
Ahh, anyway - better late than sorry.
Nice write up Donald . Enjoyed reading this one.
Ukraine is only producing 20 000 mortar rounds per month today. The first economy in the EU like Germany will produce 16 666 shells per month in the third year after starting. Ukraine is considering to increase the production, but Germany thinks it's good enough for the next decade. It's all you should know about a forecast horizon.
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/new-rheinmetall-plant-will-produce-200-000-rounds-of-ammunition-per-year/
Thanks Don. Really nice one (like the one with force multipliers). Forecasts look grim but no one knows what future will bring. Both good and bad.