Don's Weekly, 12 February 2024: Part 4

(…continued from Part 3…)

Equipment

Germany is delivering over 4,000 120mm mortar rounds a month. Ukraine is producing 20,000 rounds a month in 60mm, 82mm and 120mm calibers. The 120 mm rounds are particularly important to the 3rd Assault Brigade and Avdiivka right now since there is a shortage of 155mm shells…https://www.defensenews.com/global/europe/2023/11/09/rheinmetall-to-deliver-100000-rounds-of-mortar-ammunition-to-ukraine/

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukrainian-armor-reveals-mortars-and-mortar-rounds-production-rate/

American officials say that without replenishment, Ukraine will run out of air defense missiles within a month. They also believe a broader collapse of the front might happen before the end of the year without US aid…https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/09/world/europe/ukraine-oleksandr-syrsky-war-russia.html#:~:text=Ukrainian%20troops%20are%20exhausted%2C%20and,steadily%20exhausted%20by%20repeated%20bombardments.&text=American%20officials%20assess%20that%2C%20without,last%20until%20only%20next%20month.

Norway might provide 10 more NASAM launchers and 4 more fire control centers…https://bsky.app/profile/maks23.bsky.social/post/3kkyf77audg2x

Russia is using Starlink terminals…

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1756774211299766355

Russian Assaults and Ukrainian Defensive Positions

The established pattern is that Russia degrades Ukrainian defensive positions with artillery and drones. When the defensive positions no longer protect the Ukrainian soldier they withdraw to their next line of defensive positions. When the Russians advance there are no defensive positions to protect them but they’re willing to exchange men for territory. Once there, they try to dig in while attacking the next line of Ukrainian defensive positions.

At Stepove, Ukraine has effectively stopped Russia’s pattern of advance by establishing a gray zone in the treelines bordering the railroad tracks and in the village itself. When Russian assault groups advance over the 1000 meters of open ground to the treelines, they are attacked by artillery and drones. Those that survive to reach the treelines and the village are attacked by Bradleys and sometimes infantry that emerge from secure defensive positions west of the gray zone. Once all Russian assault troops are eliminated, the Bradleys withdraw back to their secure defensive positions. The gray zone terrain is so far away from Russian positions that it takes time to feed the next assault group into the battle. As a result, Ukraine has time to destroy each group before the next one arrives.

At one point Ukraine tried to re-establish defensive positions in the treelines east of Stepove. They had eliminated all the Russians and stayed in the treeline with their infantry. The infantry had shovels and tried to dig new positions but the Russian artillery, drones and steady stream of assault groups would hit them before they could complete the protective positions so they gave up on that effort.

Two kilometers to the south of Stepove, the Ukrainians have also held firm but for slightly different reasons. Their defensive positions in the railroad treelines were also destroyed, just like at Stepove, but the massive coke plant remained intact, despite being hit by hundreds of bombs and thousands of artillery shells. The plant has the additional advantage of being tall, which aids in observing any Russian activity five kilometers away, which includes any attacks on Stepove and any activity east of the coke plant. Machine guns and snipers also operate from the elevated plant buildings and any Russians that survive to reach the treeline that’s 200-800 meters away from the plant are destroyed by Ukrainian Bradleys and infantry that later withdraw to safety.

Even with the shortage of artillery ammo, Ukraine could hold the Stepove-Coke Plant sector indefinitely against attacks over large stretches of open ground. But the coke plant will soon face a greater threat from the residential terrain.

In WW2, Korea, Vietnam, Chechnya and Iraq, city battles gave significant advantages to the defender because each building can be a defensive position, each street a kill zone, and the terrain is dense enough to provide cover and concealment for the defender’s movement. The attacker can overcome these defensive advantages by surrounding the city and cutting off the defender’s food, ammo and reinforcements, and the attacker can use overwhelming firepower and manpower, but it is difficult for the attacker to avoid heavy casualties.

This is still true in Russia’s war on Ukraine but Russia is willing to expend manpower at a rate few nation’s would accept. Once they establish a foothold in the city the nature of the fight changes.

Whereas the Russians must cross a 1,000 meter field before reaching Stepove, Russians in any city, town or village only need to cross a street of 30 meters or less to reach the next line of Ukrainian defenses. Each remnant of a house occupied by the Russians may only have a partial wall or a pile of rubble left, but that’s enough to hold one to three soldiers. And it’s not just a small assault group occupying the leading edge of the battlefield, there are more Russian soldiers in the rubble behind them. These soldiers are constantly digging and improving positions to try and survive Ukrainian artillery, drones and gunfire.

The Ukrainian soldiers occupying houses don’t just rely on the structure of the house, they often utilize the basements, creating firing positions from under the house and even digging trenches and tunnels through the walls to connect the defensive positions at each house. The house itself is the overhead cover for these basement positions, and Russia has to blast through the house with artillery and drones before reaching the basement and collapsing it. This takes time, but when the defensive position is destroyed, Ukraine withdraws and Russia advances. And the cycle continues.

Ukraine rarely counterattacks in a city because of the cost, but circumstances sometimes provide an opportunity for limited local counterattacks.

There’s no fighting for Vuhledar right now and there’s a reason for it. At the beginning of 2023, Russia launched an attack on the town that lasted for several weeks. At the time, US journalists have stylised it into the ‘largest tank battle’ of the war - because Russia suffered such heavy losses in armour. Meanwhile, Russia lost over 400 vehicles in the Avdiivka area, too: this is much more than at Vuhledar a year ago.

What made Vuhledar such a strong defensive position is the very large fields that Russia had to advance across, plus the multiple high-rise apartment buildings in the town itself. Russian airstrikes and artillery fire has damaged or destroyed 100% of the buildings, making it unliveable for civilians, but the apartment buildings are still standing, similar to the coke plant in Avdiivka. So Russia was never able to destroy Ukraine’s defensive positions that protected their soldiers, plus they had to cross a large field that exposed their assault forces to attrition before they could engage. The buildings also allow Ukraine observation of Russian activity for kilometers around. Vuhledar’s apartment buildings act as a castle and the surrounding fields are like a moat. The Russian 155th Naval Infantry Brigade was destroyed trying to take the town and had to be rebuilt with mobilized troops before attacking Novomykhailikva near Marinka.

While no defensive position is impregnable, it can be strong enough that the enemy must pay a high price in manpower and equipment in order to take it. Time is another cost. The stronger the defenses, the longer it will take to secure it. If the defenses consist of trenches dug out of the dirt, then it will take a certain amount of time before artillery and drones destroy them. If the trenches are reinforced with wooden walls and concrete bunkers, it will take longer to destroy them.

Trenches, tunnels and bunkers somewhere near the front lines

Access to the defensive position is another factor. If the Russians have easy access to a position then they can keep it constantly engaged, and when an assault is defeated another can be quickly launched. Long distances between the Russian positions and the Ukrainian positions make it much more difficult for Russian assaults. Access can be denied to vehicles with small concrete pyramids called “Dragon’s teeth”, barbed wire can deny access to personnel, and mines can deny access to both. When mines explode, they need to be replaced. This can be done by hand, but that might expose the soldier to enemy fire. Ukrainian innovation found a safer method that can be used in some situations involving a ground drone…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1750931848249712834

Dragon’s teeth and barbed wire outside Kupyansk

It cost money to dig positions with machinery and even more to use logs, concrete, dragon’s teeth, barbed wire and mines. As reported, Ukraine is spending $453 million to build almost a thousand kilometers of defensive positions, similar to what Russia did before Ukraine’s offensive last summer. It is difficult to build extensive fortifications while under enemy observation and fire so they were built behind the front lines in case the Ukrainians had to withdraw. In addition to the engineering obstacles, they are using terrain features such as hills and rivers to multiply the strength of defensive positions. If things go well then many of these positions will not be used, but they will be important if something unexpected happens.