Don's Weekly, 11 March 2024: Part 3

(…continued from Part 2…)

Diplomacy

The US president is obligated to provide an annual State of the Union report to congress in front of the House, Senate and Supreme Court members. For almost 200 years the politicians received the speech politely but that began to change in 1975. In recent years, the speech has increasingly become a spectacle, with the vice president and Speaker of the House sitting behind the president, and Representatives and Senators sitting in front of the president, clapping and standing for statements that meet with their approval, and remaining silent, booing or worse if they disagree. Even the clothes they wore sent a message, with the Democratic Senate majority leader wearing a blue suit and yellow tie to signal support for Ukraine. With that background, here is a three minute video of the speech that talks about Russia’s war on Ukraine and shows the US political response to it.

Democrats and traditional Republicans support aid to Ukraine. MAGA Republicans do not, saying they do not want American money sent overseas. If the Speaker Johnson brings up the Ukrainian aid bill, it would pass, but with a narrow Republican majority, the MAGA Republicans would vote to remove him, just like his predecessor, the first time this was done in US history. The Democrats indicated they would vote to retain Johnson, but if he accepted their help he would likely lose the election for his seat in November.

90% of the military aid to Ukraine is paid to the US companies and workers that build the ammo and equipment. Nevertheless, Trump said that money should not be given to foreign governments except as loans, so some Republican and Democratic politicians are trying to craft the aid as a loan with generous terms. There is also talk of using seized Russian assets to pay for the aid. Even so, many MAGA politicians are unconvinced. In any case, the Ukrainian economy is as important as military aid and any loans, no matter how generous the terms, is not as helpful as a grant…https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/house-republicans-consider-loan-program-ukraine-aid-rcna142562

One German official entered a secured internet conversation by insecure means. This allowed the Russians to listen in on the conversation…

https://twitter.com/deaidua/status/1765014779955957774

The online meeting was to discuss what they would brief the defense minister on February 19th. The minister announced on the 22nd that Germany would not send the Taurus missile.

In order to program the Taurus missile, German technicians would have to do it or they would have to train Ukrainians over several months to do it. British and French personnel in Ukraine program the Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles. Germany is not willing to have personnel in the country.

They estimated it would take 10-20 missiles to destroy the Kerch bridge. The vehicle and train portions of the bridge were repaired in three months but they cannot carry their designed weight. Destroying ammo depots in Crimea would be much easier…https://www.kyivpost.com/post/29004

The German opposition leader shares his view on providing the Taurus missile to Ukraine…

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1766404950500712793

A US civilian analyst was arrested for passing classified information on a dating site…https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/03/05/air-force-david-slater-indictment-dating-site/

A US intelligence analyst was arrested for selling secrets to China…https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-army-intelligence-analyst-charged-with-selling-military-secrets-china-2024-03-07/

After 200 years of neutrality, and 19 months of extortion politics, Sweden became the 32nd member of NATO…https://apnews.com/article/sweden-nato-us-russia-ukraine-8372bc866c8ddcf42d2b8209fa5cd2b1

The Austrian Raiffeisen bank is one of the three most reliable banks in Russia. It makes €1 billion, half of its profits, from operations in that country. The US is threatening to cut the bank off from the US financial system unless it stops doing business in Russia. In the meantime, the Austrian government says it will not sign off on new EU sanctions if Raiffeisen bank isn’t removed from the ‘international sponsors of war’ list.

Austria also bought 80% of its gas from Russia before 2022 and now buys between 50-74% of its gas. The chief of its OMV energy group said as long as Russia is selling gas it’s buying it and recently signed contracts until 2026 with Russia…

https://twitter.com/Billbrowder/status/1766386965652353463

Hungary’s OTP bank said it would stop doing business in Russia in April, 2023, after a round of sanctions but continues to operate there. Last May, Ukraine added the bank to its list of international sponsors of war. Hungary used that designation as an excuse to block €500 million in EU military aid to Ukraine. In October, Ukraine provisionally lifted that designation but Hungary said it still needs guarantees the bank would not be added to that list again. Now, OTP is interested in buying the Ukrainian state-owned Sense Bank. Sense Bank was the Ukrainian branch of the Alfa Bank until it was nationalized last summer. Alfa Bank is owned by a sanctioned Russian oligarch…https://kyivindependent.com/media-hungarys-otp-bank-group-which-still-works-in-russia-interested-in-buying-ukrainian-state-owned-bank/

Cars registered in Russia must leave Finland by March 16…

https://twitter.com/TOGAjano21/status/1766435547826819196

Early in 2022, the pope was reluctant to name Russia as an aggressor, but eventually did so and called Ukraine a “martyred nation”. He has refrained from taking sides in order to preserve the possibility of becoming the moderator for peace. He has condemned the arms trade when Ukraine needs weapons and received officials from Putin’s government and his allies. An interviewer from Switzerland asked him if Ukraine should “surrender, the white flag in this case”, or whether such an action would only encourage authoritarians. The pope replied that fear of encouraging the aggressor is one interpretation, “But I believe that the strongest is the one who sees the situation, thinks of the people, and has the courage of the white flag, and to negotiate,” and that negotiation is the courage to not bring a country to its suicide. He added, “When you see that you are defeated, that things are not going well, you have to have the courage to negotiate.” His spokesman said that the the pope said that negotiation is never a surrender…https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/09/world/europe/pope-ukraine-white-flag.html?smid=url-share

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Equipment

It takes time to prepare a drone with explosives and, at least in Ukraine’s case, determine the EW environment in order to utilize the right frequencies and antennas. They keep 20 drones ready for the next Russian assault…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1765116571536564326

A Russian blogger says that the drones provided to the Russian military by private companies are of good quality but the drones provided by the government are not…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1764573955283616170

13,668 APC/IFVs were found in storage at 39 bases before the war. They are pulled from storage and refurbished before being sent to the front as replacements. The analyst plans to conduct another count in the near future to see how many remain in storage. Once the vehicles in storage are gone, Russia would need to rely on production of new vehicles for replacements…

https://twitter.com/Jonpy99/status/1766735056448467236

Tom featured Zvook and Ukrainian IT in one of his posts this week. This 27 minute video overlaps those issues and talks about how the Ukrainian tech industry survived and grew their customer base since 2022, bringing in vital money for Ukraine’s economy. It also talks about how many Ukrainian companies earn money from customers while also supporting Ukrainian military projects, such as the Emmy award-winning company that worked on the Obi-Wan Kenobi movie from bomb shelters while working on the Zvook air defense project. Digital government records store personal records, such as passports and driver’s licenses, which is generally useful but especially to those that lost their possessions in the war or live in the occupied territories. Those in the occupied territories can also submit information about enemy activity.

The number of tech companies continues to grow and the war is a major reason. In the summer of 2022, there were seven companies that could sell drones to the government. Last summer, there were about 40 companies that provided drones. There may be close to 400 companies now that are producing drones. These companies not only help sustain Ukraine in a time of war, they will help rebuild it once victory is won.

Andrew Perpetua has been posting videos of drones attacking other drones mid-air. Right now the method of attack is the basic collision. This is likely to evolve at some point. In this video the target drone sees the attacking drone approach…

https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1766835998883725697

In this video, the target drone did not see the attacker…

https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1766670130354806923

In WW2, the British and US developed the proximity fuse, which sent out radio signals and detonated bombs and artillery shells above the ground rather than on contact with the ground itself. Much of the explosive and fragmentation damage is reduced by contact explosions, whereas fragments from an airburst cover a wider area and have a direct path into trenches. The WW2 fuses cost a present day equivalent of $312 and I’ve been wondering for months why modern fuses weren’t provided for HE 155mm shells. DPICM shells showed how effective airburst munitions could be. Drones and the M31 rockets from HIMARS/MLRS are also effective when using airbursts.

There are several people reposting the same message (like I am now) that France is sending non-contact fuses to the Ukrainian Caesar teams. The report says the fuses have been sent before but then they show video of DPICM testing in the US, so I’m wondering how valid the report is. In any case, this is what a 155mm airburst looks like here.

***

Russian Airstrikes

Russia has used bombs since the beginning of the war, with the March, 2022 use of a 500 kg bomb on the Mariupol drama theater being just one example. On March 24, 2023 Russia converted the free-fall bombs into glide bombs and dropped 11 of them in the Sumy region. They’re now dropping 40 to 150 bombs a day for a total of 727 in February. The increase in the number of glide bombs being dropped corresponds to the increase of the number of glide kits produced to convert standard bombs and the increased number of airframes dropping them. Here is the partial flight path of one airstrike mission.

Their airstrikes have been inaccurate and haven't killed many Ukrainians, but the blasts are so powerful that they were still suffering from fragmentation wounds and brain injuries from the shock waves. Equipment that was untouched by bomb fragments were still damaged and sometimes destroyed by the shock waves.

What Andrew Perpetua’s team noticed, though, is that while many bombs are still inaccurate, there are some that are landing directly on their targets in a manner that can be repeated. In the Zaporizhzhia region last week there are three examples of an airstrike landing on top of Ukrainian positions.

In Chasiv Yar, there were two examples in two successive days that can only be described as accurate bombing.

Thee Russians are increasingly using 1500 kg glide bombs, as well. Chasiv Yar is a Russian objective west of Bakhmut and Russian bombs are trying to destroy the taller buildings that effectively aid in Ukraine’s defense. The towers of Vuhledar, which held off repeated Russian attacks a year ago, are also being bombarded. This is a scaled up version of Russian drones destroying Ukrainian trenches and houses with repeated strikes. The reason

The fact that some bombs are very accurate while others are not suggests that Russia is phasing in a new capability that will likely become more widespread. The most effective defense Ukraine has would be air defense systems engaging the Russian aircraft, but in addition to the reports of Russian aircraft that has been shot down recently, some of which was verified, Ukraine lost quite a few radars, launchers and other air defense components, including a MiG-29 and some Patriot equipment.

The most effective way for Ukraine to counter Russian air is with their air defense systems. Losses are to be expected, particularly when you are aggressive, and Ukraine needs to be aggressive to reach aircraft that are dropping munitions at the limits of their range. While electronic warfare continues to evolve, Ukraine needs to increase their efforts to avoid electronic and visual detection. Mobile air defense systems can escort and protect the static air defense systems while they move.

The basics, though, apply to both infantry and vehicles. Disperse so one hand grenade or missile won’t hit everyone. This includes spreading out when moving. And when you stop moving, seek cover and concealment. Every soldier should do this on their own. When they don’t, every leader should correct them. In the end, this is a leadership issue.