Thank you for this report. A question. It is being stated in news here that Russia produces/acquires more drones than Ukraine. Albeit maybe at a lower quality. Regarding the production of drones I can’t see that this is right based on the description from you and others on the Ukrainian «cottage industry» producing drones. I cannot see anything like that in Russia. It is also said the China sells drones, I don’t doubt they might be willing, but is Russia overall willing to pay? Able to? Iran provides some, definitely. But is the total drone production higher in Russia than in Ukraine? To your best analysis?
The only numbers reported are what leaders are saying. Back in July, Russia said they produced about 1.5 million drones a year. This year, Ukraine budgeted $1 billion with the goal of producing 1 million drones. As of last October, Zelensky said they were producing at a rate of 4 million a year, but just this week they said Ukraine was producing at a rate of 2.5-3 million drones a year.
So what they say isn't reliable evidence. But both sides see about the same number of drones in the field. It is certainly possible that one side makes more than the other but the functional difference is small. I think it's entirely possible that Russia makes more and Ukraine is more effective with the number of drones they have.
There was some numbers circulated, that the total for the year was around 1.2-1.3 million. And then this lady, that is a kind of head of a cluster of producers or association of producers, in interview (https://youtu.be/PZlRGeRjbvU) tells that around 2/3 of production capacity was not used in 2024. And that this means around 2 mln+ systems. So basically it looks like total production capacity is around 3.5-4 mln.
And provided with 2$ extra billions it would be fully employed. However, probably there is not enough trained teams to use this quantity of them.
That's more complex. Lack of mobilisation by the government (resulting not only in the lack of money to increase production, but also lack of working force), corruption, incompetence...
Dear Tom, from what I read there, and this is a kind of "voice" of private producers. There is no lack of money, or people, or spares. You can find other interviews by Katerina Mikhalko. And here is their website: https://techforce.in.ua/, you can see them unite many well-known and less known producers. She goes on and on about it, your normal weaponry producer story.
There is lack of demand. From government. And she does not see it increasing any time soon. And she surely knows a few things about how matters go. So I am reading (BTL) either, government does not need those "models" that are proposed, or does not have people to use it. Which is more likely.
And Zelenskiy mentioning 2-3-4 millions drones was most probably finally informed about the problem. And this meeting with 5 units, is part of the solution. For each of them is tasked to grow 3 times, in 3 months. Which is obviously linked to spare production capacity. As well partially to 18-24 age contracts. But we see how that goes.
Those 5 units together seems to be doing around 25% of all kills. So growing 3 times they are also tasked to increase kills 3 times. And this means +50% to overall kills expected.
They will be ordering directly all they need, if I understood correctly. That is what I mean by "high sitting support".
That is why Umerov on the meeting. That is why Bezrukova is fired. That is why Zhumadilov is bragging that no contracts were signed during January. That is why Zelenskiy is saying "I support Umerov, there should be no stops to weapon supplies". I think he was shocked to know that there is 2/3 of unused production capacity.
P.S. "It is more complex" sounds a bit... too difficult to explain to me? :)
Thank you for this report. A question. It is being stated in news here that Russia produces/acquires more drones than Ukraine. Albeit maybe at a lower quality. Regarding the production of drones I can’t see that this is right based on the description from you and others on the Ukrainian «cottage industry» producing drones. I cannot see anything like that in Russia. It is also said the China sells drones, I don’t doubt they might be willing, but is Russia overall willing to pay? Able to? Iran provides some, definitely. But is the total drone production higher in Russia than in Ukraine? To your best analysis?
The only numbers reported are what leaders are saying. Back in July, Russia said they produced about 1.5 million drones a year. This year, Ukraine budgeted $1 billion with the goal of producing 1 million drones. As of last October, Zelensky said they were producing at a rate of 4 million a year, but just this week they said Ukraine was producing at a rate of 2.5-3 million drones a year.
So what they say isn't reliable evidence. But both sides see about the same number of drones in the field. It is certainly possible that one side makes more than the other but the functional difference is small. I think it's entirely possible that Russia makes more and Ukraine is more effective with the number of drones they have.
Thanks for the answer.
There was some numbers circulated, that the total for the year was around 1.2-1.3 million. And then this lady, that is a kind of head of a cluster of producers or association of producers, in interview (https://youtu.be/PZlRGeRjbvU) tells that around 2/3 of production capacity was not used in 2024. And that this means around 2 mln+ systems. So basically it looks like total production capacity is around 3.5-4 mln.
And provided with 2$ extra billions it would be fully employed. However, probably there is not enough trained teams to use this quantity of them.
That's more complex. Lack of mobilisation by the government (resulting not only in the lack of money to increase production, but also lack of working force), corruption, incompetence...
Dear Tom, from what I read there, and this is a kind of "voice" of private producers. There is no lack of money, or people, or spares. You can find other interviews by Katerina Mikhalko. And here is their website: https://techforce.in.ua/, you can see them unite many well-known and less known producers. She goes on and on about it, your normal weaponry producer story.
There is lack of demand. From government. And she does not see it increasing any time soon. And she surely knows a few things about how matters go. So I am reading (BTL) either, government does not need those "models" that are proposed, or does not have people to use it. Which is more likely.
And Zelenskiy mentioning 2-3-4 millions drones was most probably finally informed about the problem. And this meeting with 5 units, is part of the solution. For each of them is tasked to grow 3 times, in 3 months. Which is obviously linked to spare production capacity. As well partially to 18-24 age contracts. But we see how that goes.
Those 5 units together seems to be doing around 25% of all kills. So growing 3 times they are also tasked to increase kills 3 times. And this means +50% to overall kills expected.
They will be ordering directly all they need, if I understood correctly. That is what I mean by "high sitting support".
That is why Umerov on the meeting. That is why Bezrukova is fired. That is why Zhumadilov is bragging that no contracts were signed during January. That is why Zelenskiy is saying "I support Umerov, there should be no stops to weapon supplies". I think he was shocked to know that there is 2/3 of unused production capacity.
P.S. "It is more complex" sounds a bit... too difficult to explain to me? :)
ZSU could expect rescue helicopter to have EW, they should use arty instead or together with drones.
That "mesh tunnel" looks like a nice target for artillery to me...