Don's Weekly, 10 February 2025: Part 2

by Donald Hill

(…continued from Part 1…)

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Terny

The only piece of real estate in this sector gained by the Russians was the one east of Terny. Problem: this makes it very difficult for Ukraine to hold onto the village.

Hope remains, ‘somebody in Kyiv’ might start paying attention… and hope, usually, dies the last…

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Chasiv Yar

While people love ridiculing the Russian armed forces, and - arguably - these are nowadays really reminiscent of an armed mob - one can’t deny that higher-ranking Russian officers do remain highly skilled at finding solutions, and, definitely, are taking this war damn serious (contrary to all the possible ‘allies’ of Ukraine in ‘the West’). A good example: because the Ukrainian drones have been taking a toll on their logistical vehicles, the Russians built a two-kilometers-long mesh tunnel on the road between Bakhmut to Chasiv Yar.

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Toretsk

The 12th NG Azov is ‘back’ and running a clearing mission from Leonidivka down to Nelipivka. They cleared basements and houses slowly and methodically. In the last three weeks they’ve advanced 3 km.

In Toretsk, Ukraine is swarming the Russian defenses with drones, making it difficult - but not impossible - for Russia to launch offensive operations.

One of nicest moments of the last week was when a video appeared, showing how the 28th Brigade and 57th TD Battalion shot down a Russian Su-25. FPV drones then attacked the Mi-8 sent to retrieve the pilot. Signal interference stopped what likely would have been a successful attack, but the helicopter left before the pilot could be picked up.

The Russians bombarded the woods just south of Nelipivka.

Downtown Toretsk is bombarded by Ukraine.

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Pokrovsk

‘Minor’ (in their total scope) Ukrainian counterattacks described the last week, have decreased the number of Russian attacks by nearly 50%. That said, there’s no denial that this became possible because Ukraine continue deplivering - and thus deploying - ‘significant’ numbers of drones in this sector. And, when there is enough ‘ammunition’, well, it’s little wonder that Russian assaults are being heavily hit and unable to make any progress. In addition, Ukraine continued conducting (effective) counter attacks on the western end of the sector (makes one wonder what would have been possible without the Glavcom’s incompetent micromanagement and a better organisation and coordination of units in this sector - right from the start).

A Russian squad unloads from a vehicle in Lysivka and is engaged by drones.

Ukrainian vehicles are hit by drones in Pishchane. Russian infantry are hunted by drones.

A soldier from the 155th Brigade encounters a Russian in Kotlyne. Soldiers from the 425th Battalion encounter a team of Russians in the same village. A kilometer to the east, Ukrainian positions are attacked.

The 59th Brigade attacked targets around Uspenivka.

Russian helicopters are firing from Novohrodivka.

The leaders of the 35th Motorized Rifle Battalion were reportedly eliminated by a GMLRS strike in Selydove.

The 111th Brigade is on the eastern end of the Pokrovsk sector. The head of its EW unit says that Russian attacks have significantly dropped in intensity due to heavy losses and reduced number of replacements. The sector is stabilized and since Russia cannot make forward progress they will try and widen the flanks and push forward there. How hard a Russian unit pushes depends on their leadership. All the Russians they capture are demoralized. He believes that if enough Ukrainian replacements and supplies arrive then the Russians won’t make any more progress. He thinks it’ll take Drapaty six weeks to assess the state of units in the sector, determine the available resources on hand and what the state can provide. (These are details a decent (future) corps commander would know intimately). This officer doesn’t believe in miracle generals, just the front line soldier and his commander. (A corps commander doesn’t have to create miracles. He needs to make sure the front line commanders are competent, and he needs to provide the front line commanders and soldiers with achievable objectives and the resources to accomplish the mission).

In both Chasiv Yar and Pokrovsk, there are reports that Russians sent into assaults have no idea of the enemy situation, and some are eliminated within a minute of leaving their vehicles. The lack of intelligence may be caused by a shortage of reconnaissance drones due to Ukraine’s high interception rate. Some try to rely on OSINT reports.

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Andriivka

The Glavcom’s obsession with letting ZSU troops within Russian-surrounded cauldrons continues to show. Nowhere is this as obvious as in this sector… and then so much so, one hopes and prays all the time, that the troops are going to get out on time…

Unsurprisingly, the Russian drones continued to attack Ukrainian positions in Dachne. A HMMWV was destroyed between Dachne and Ulakly. There was little Russian advancement but the infiltration of Andriivka is further deepening this cauldron.

The 37th Marines attacked Russian targets south of Zelenivka, but this brought only little respite.

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Velyka Novosilka

North of Novy Komar, an abandoned armored car is eventually destroyed after multiple drone strikes. Other Ukrainian targets nearby were also attacked. Russian targets were hit 2 km east of the village and inside Velyka Novosilka.

Ukrainian drone operators noticed that Russians have civilians accompany them when walking around Velyka Novosilka to protect them from drone attacks.

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Kherson

The war of attrition continues across the river. A Russian pickup truck is destroyed. A Ukrainian pickup truck is destroyed. A Russian post says that any moving vehicle is considered a legitimate target, trying to shift the blame for attacking civilians onto the civilians themselves.

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(…to be continued…)