Hello everybody! June is over, July began… temperatures are rising: they expect up to 37°C in Ukraine this week….the fighting is going on and…. ah yes: since the Russians are ‘not really coming forward’ there are already complains from the West. See, ‘Ukrainians are not counterattacking’, ‘Ukrainians are sitting there and waiting for the Russians to come, so they can kill them’ etc.
Peter "Hasta La Vista" Fouche. The MAN. The one that was ashamed to be a westerner, the Big Heart Man, the man who saved hundreds of our warriors, he gave it all ((((((((((((
Such a huge loss. I didn't know him personally but listened to him on many podcasts. He was a passionate defender and did so much to help the soldiers.
So who in the West is complaining that Ukraine is not counter attacking? None of the politicians or analysts that I follow have said anything like this?
On a side note, are you planning on maybe also writing something about the Austrian spy scandal? I would be interested in your point of view.
Never mentioning 'culprits' in such cases. Enough to say, really got mad when reading commentary in question.
Re. Austrian spy scandal: mind letting me know which one do you mean?
I mean: there are so many, I wouldn't know where to start. The reason is that our entire oligarchy and the politics have a history of working either for KGB or the (former) Czechoslovak Secret Service, not to talk about Putin and FSB. And half our army leadership for the GRU.
Only clueless US journos still find this is something like 'news'...
I mean, I've been talking about Ukraine counterattacking... in September. After receiving supplies.
Now, Ukraine actually has been launching some interesting local counterattacks lately that could evolve. But I thought I was just about the only American these days who isn't acting like Ukraine is doomed.
I am happy to accept criticism, for the record. I just don't run a comments section on my blog because I'm bad about keeping up and don't want to have to play troll-ban.
"just because it’s got the first 50,000 shells out of ‘2 million’ supposed to be acquired within frame of the ‘Czech Arms Deal’, and that while all the glorious ‘allies’ in the West have so far taken care to pay only for 500,000 of these?"
Tom, just to remind ourselves that these are after 1 mln. shells to be "definitely delivered by EU" before end of 2023, which later corrected, "but 500K surely till the end of March 2024". And since then vaguely mentioning "that we need to do more in terms of ammunition deliveries". So Ukraine counts that Czech initiative comes on top of that 1 mln., right?
And just to mention in terms of numbers. US mentioned in their estimations for 61 bln. bill, said "Ukraine needs at least 100,000 shells per month and up to 180,000 for offensive operations."
But I am hearing recently, that UA army has now almost enough shells to engage all needed targets, without the need for strict priorities.
And according to ZSU reports 3000+ firing tasks are conducted every day (https://t.me/Khortytsky_wind/616). I understand that ZSU probably mastered now enough economy to put only between 2 and 3 shells per task. But even according to minimum NATO limits it is 5-6 per task, if understand? And that means, ZSU has now say 6K shells per day, while NATO doctrine requires 15K for this number of targets. And that means up to 450K per month, and this is not being on offensive. So using US ratios it would require 800K per month to be on offensive. So I am not sure what everyone is expecting.
Relative to this war, Ukraine has a lot of shells. They were firing about 6,000 shells a day during the 2023 summer offensive. Relative to NATO standards, they do not have a lot of shells. Single shells would be fired to find the settings that placed the round on target. Then a battery of six guns would fire a volley. Depending on the nature of the target and the effects of the bombardment, 2-3 volleys might be fired. This video is just a training exercise:
You don't see Ukrainian guns firing the weight of fire that NATO doctrine calls for. At the beginning of the war, you used to see it from the Russians, but as they burned through their ammo stockpile it's a quarter of what it used to be.
Ukraine is actively rewriting NATO doctrine as we speak, so I trust the widespread reports that Ukrainian gunners can engage any target in sight. Casualties on the orc side are spiking despite Moscow actually reducing the pace of a couple of its offensive efforts.
What journos forget about war is the importance of scale. Some Ukrainian units are now counterattacking on a tactical level against ruscist troops that were pushed too far forward. In fact, that's probably how most counterattacks will go until Moscow is very short on bodies again.
Ukraine is clearly now assuming a constant supply of at least 50k 155mm shells monthly. This will double by fall. With the end of the shell famine, the balance on the battlefield is already shifting.
Ukraine can counter-attack just fine by blowing up more Russian refineries and S-400 systems. No need to change what they are doing on the front line (shooting at Russians who move).
Because of limited west support, biggest chance to win this war for UA is by destroy russia economy or by Putin's dead. Economy is hard to predict and Putin's dead is impossible to predict.
Thanks Don and Tom. Regarding "See, ‘Ukrainians are not counterattacking’, ‘Ukrainians are sitting there and waiting for the Russians to come, so they can kill them’ etc."
From a humanitarian point of you the West is right. Encircling them is the better option as it is way to hot for cuddling them with 37°C outside. Way to sweaty. Think about the lost water.
Tom, just so you know, lots of us are perfectly content to be "bored" by watching waves of Russians get slaughtered by "inactive" Ukrainian troops. Hell, I'm happy to be bored like this all summer long! The counter-attack will come when it comes and I hope they rip some holy hell when they do.
It's irritating to see Russia successfully doing a diversion at the North (Kharkiv) for 2+ months.
If they hadn't opened that new front, the Ukraine defenses wouldn't be so stretched thin on the eastern and southern fronts...
I hope that Ukraine will kick them beyond the internationally recognized borders, and quickly, because Russia is (slowly, but continuously) inching ahead (especially on the Eastern front)
Great rant. It needed to be said that Ukraine should conduct no ground offensives. It would be futile to do so until their Western backers stop playing PR games with their promises of support. Because that support will arrive eventually Ukraine can sit in defense. They can even afford to play the waiting game longer than Russia.
A big concern has to be the drop off in the intensity of drone/missile attacks. They are clearly stockpiling to build reserves. If they use that stockpile as part of a doctrinally sound large-scale ground offensive then Ukraine might be in trouble. I know you'll say that will never happen but 'never' is a dangerous word to use. Even about the Russian General Staff. And even with Putin screwing up every decision.
https://www.facebook.com/100086758286203/posts/pfbid02VQvgNLQCezj4PHtycVF6URpr1KgnapLjFphz88ZpCSGCyCje7WSCduXgeCJ2eNc8l/
RIP((((((((
Can't open Facebook without getting spammed with 'Your account is temporarily blocked'...
If it's what I'm afraid it is: RIP.
Peter "Hasta La Vista" Fouche. The MAN. The one that was ashamed to be a westerner, the Big Heart Man, the man who saved hundreds of our warriors, he gave it all ((((((((((((
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraina/comments/1dsklnr/south_african_medic_and_project_konstantin/?force_seo=1
Such a huge loss. I didn't know him personally but listened to him on many podcasts. He was a passionate defender and did so much to help the soldiers.
So who in the West is complaining that Ukraine is not counter attacking? None of the politicians or analysts that I follow have said anything like this?
On a side note, are you planning on maybe also writing something about the Austrian spy scandal? I would be interested in your point of view.
Never mentioning 'culprits' in such cases. Enough to say, really got mad when reading commentary in question.
Re. Austrian spy scandal: mind letting me know which one do you mean?
I mean: there are so many, I wouldn't know where to start. The reason is that our entire oligarchy and the politics have a history of working either for KGB or the (former) Czechoslovak Secret Service, not to talk about Putin and FSB. And half our army leadership for the GRU.
Only clueless US journos still find this is something like 'news'...
The best was Dagmar Koller defending Helmut Zilk live on TV so convincingly as she wasn't even in his life at that time.
'Historic', indeed.
I mean, I've been talking about Ukraine counterattacking... in September. After receiving supplies.
Now, Ukraine actually has been launching some interesting local counterattacks lately that could evolve. But I thought I was just about the only American these days who isn't acting like Ukraine is doomed.
I am happy to accept criticism, for the record. I just don't run a comments section on my blog because I'm bad about keeping up and don't want to have to play troll-ban.
Dear Don, thank you for update! Very informative.
"just because it’s got the first 50,000 shells out of ‘2 million’ supposed to be acquired within frame of the ‘Czech Arms Deal’, and that while all the glorious ‘allies’ in the West have so far taken care to pay only for 500,000 of these?"
Tom, just to remind ourselves that these are after 1 mln. shells to be "definitely delivered by EU" before end of 2023, which later corrected, "but 500K surely till the end of March 2024". And since then vaguely mentioning "that we need to do more in terms of ammunition deliveries". So Ukraine counts that Czech initiative comes on top of that 1 mln., right?
And just to mention in terms of numbers. US mentioned in their estimations for 61 bln. bill, said "Ukraine needs at least 100,000 shells per month and up to 180,000 for offensive operations."
But I am hearing recently, that UA army has now almost enough shells to engage all needed targets, without the need for strict priorities.
And according to ZSU reports 3000+ firing tasks are conducted every day (https://t.me/Khortytsky_wind/616). I understand that ZSU probably mastered now enough economy to put only between 2 and 3 shells per task. But even according to minimum NATO limits it is 5-6 per task, if understand? And that means, ZSU has now say 6K shells per day, while NATO doctrine requires 15K for this number of targets. And that means up to 450K per month, and this is not being on offensive. So using US ratios it would require 800K per month to be on offensive. So I am not sure what everyone is expecting.
Relative to this war, Ukraine has a lot of shells. They were firing about 6,000 shells a day during the 2023 summer offensive. Relative to NATO standards, they do not have a lot of shells. Single shells would be fired to find the settings that placed the round on target. Then a battery of six guns would fire a volley. Depending on the nature of the target and the effects of the bombardment, 2-3 volleys might be fired. This video is just a training exercise:
https://youtu.be/--JmEF446fE?t=61
Some NATO countries practice firing three different rounds at three different trajectories so that they all arrive on target at the same time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t2EP-_IMbpQ
You don't see Ukrainian guns firing the weight of fire that NATO doctrine calls for. At the beginning of the war, you used to see it from the Russians, but as they burned through their ammo stockpile it's a quarter of what it used to be.
Ukraine is actively rewriting NATO doctrine as we speak, so I trust the widespread reports that Ukrainian gunners can engage any target in sight. Casualties on the orc side are spiking despite Moscow actually reducing the pace of a couple of its offensive efforts.
What journos forget about war is the importance of scale. Some Ukrainian units are now counterattacking on a tactical level against ruscist troops that were pushed too far forward. In fact, that's probably how most counterattacks will go until Moscow is very short on bodies again.
Ukraine is clearly now assuming a constant supply of at least 50k 155mm shells monthly. This will double by fall. With the end of the shell famine, the balance on the battlefield is already shifting.
I think those that have not met their commitments and or pledges should be publicized
Ukraine can counter-attack just fine by blowing up more Russian refineries and S-400 systems. No need to change what they are doing on the front line (shooting at Russians who move).
Because of limited west support, biggest chance to win this war for UA is by destroy russia economy or by Putin's dead. Economy is hard to predict and Putin's dead is impossible to predict.
Thanks Don and Tom. Regarding "See, ‘Ukrainians are not counterattacking’, ‘Ukrainians are sitting there and waiting for the Russians to come, so they can kill them’ etc."
From a humanitarian point of you the West is right. Encircling them is the better option as it is way to hot for cuddling them with 37°C outside. Way to sweaty. Think about the lost water.
Sarcasm off.
Tom, just so you know, lots of us are perfectly content to be "bored" by watching waves of Russians get slaughtered by "inactive" Ukrainian troops. Hell, I'm happy to be bored like this all summer long! The counter-attack will come when it comes and I hope they rip some holy hell when they do.
It's irritating to see Russia successfully doing a diversion at the North (Kharkiv) for 2+ months.
If they hadn't opened that new front, the Ukraine defenses wouldn't be so stretched thin on the eastern and southern fronts...
I hope that Ukraine will kick them beyond the internationally recognized borders, and quickly, because Russia is (slowly, but continuously) inching ahead (especially on the Eastern front)
Great rant. It needed to be said that Ukraine should conduct no ground offensives. It would be futile to do so until their Western backers stop playing PR games with their promises of support. Because that support will arrive eventually Ukraine can sit in defense. They can even afford to play the waiting game longer than Russia.
A big concern has to be the drop off in the intensity of drone/missile attacks. They are clearly stockpiling to build reserves. If they use that stockpile as part of a doctrinally sound large-scale ground offensive then Ukraine might be in trouble. I know you'll say that will never happen but 'never' is a dangerous word to use. Even about the Russian General Staff. And even with Putin screwing up every decision.
Thank Don on to #2
Given that future supplies of weapons and ammunition are unreliable, it make sense for Ukraine to stick with defense and conserve them.