Don's Weekly, 1 July 2024: Part 1

Hello everybody!

June is over, July began… temperatures are rising: they expect up to 37°C in Ukraine this week….the fighting is going on and…. ah yes: since the Russians are ‘not really coming forward’ there are already complains from the West.

See, ‘Ukrainians are not counterattacking’, ‘Ukrainians are sitting there and waiting for the Russians to come, so they can kill them’ etc.

Ho-hum….

So, Ukraine should now not only completely stop any kind of the Russian advance, but also ‘counter-attack’ - and that just because it’s got the first 50,000 shells out of ‘2 million’ supposed to be acquired within frame of the ‘Czech Arms Deal’, and that while all the glorious ‘allies’ in the West have so far taken care to pay only for 500,000 of these?

….with other words: the (holly) ‘West’ is on the best way of screwing up even this one….

But, of course, Ukraine should counterattack. And that while ignoring all the other Western screw-ups, too - and that so much so that all the new brigades established the last winter had to be ‘infantry’, instead of ‘mechanised’, because the West simply didn’t deliver what it pledged it is going to deliver?

Moreover, Ukraine should counterattack without a complete and secure supply of air defence missiles (indeed: at the time the PSU can’t even properly defend Kyiv and Odesa due to the shortage of SAMs, not to talk about Kharkiv, Dnipro, Zaporizhzhya, or so many other places, closer to the frontline), without the West proving capable to at least deliver those Leopard 2 main battle tanks and infantry fighting vehicles it pledged to deliver; without artillery pieces; without F-16s; without AEWs; without secure supply of ATACMs; and with the mass of ZSU units lacking not only utility vehicles (like SUVs), mine-clearning equipment, but even medical supplies…?

And for what?

For the ‘West’ - which not only can’t reform its failing governance, but can’t even compel Israel to deliver 8 Patriot batteries and stocks of SAMs it’s never going to use (but is horny to help a government dominated by religious extremists genocide Palestinians) - to have ‘something interesting to see’, and its media something to sensationalise during the Silly Season….?

Well, me thinks, anybody complaining that way should lead by example: pack his/her things and travel to Ukraine, where he or she can join the ZSU - and then must lead the charge, showing everybody (including the Russians) how to do it right.

Indeed: I would say that the ZSU must, urgently, establish something like ‘Super-Turbo-Special-Special Foreign Legion’: staffed by such characters alone. Better yet: except for being staffed by all the possible Western politicians, colonels and generals bribed by Putin/FSB/GRU, and social media Influencers - the unit would have the obligation to include the 13th Highlands Kamikaze Journalist Company, entirely consisting of top, professional Western journos. And they would then be equipped and armed with all the stuff the ‘West’ pledged, but never delivered, too…

….which, of course, is never going to happen…. which is why I would recommend such characters to simply shut up.

Thank you - from the bottom of my heart - and that in advance. Time for Don’s review of the last week.

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Kharkiv

Based on videos of Ukrainian shelling and drone attacks, Ukraine was not in Hlyboke by the middle of last week. A Ukrainian tank from the 92nd brigade shelled the edge of Hlyboke at 350-600 m while dodging thermobaric shells and being hit twice by drones before returning to safety. Ukraine may once again be back in the village.

5 km northeast of Hlyboke, Russian helicopters were engaging Ukrainian troops…https://t.me/gostrikartuzy/423

***

Vovchansk

Ukraine made further gains in the northeast of the city. Russian artillery and thermobaric bombardment indicates that Ukraine likely regained control of most of the territory north of the aggregate plant and is pushing west. I normally don’t post drone attacks against non-vehicular targets but I did in this case to indicate the likelihood of control of territory. There was also a small Russia infantry attack that indicated where the front line was, at least at that moment last week. Notice that simply entering heavily damaged buildings can take effort.

Russia made several attempts to push through to the aggregate plant with infantry. While some did make it to the plant, their forces suffered heavy losses. This week, the Russians made a nighttime push through the contested corridor with tanks, BMP’s and MT-LB’s. Some of the vehicles were knocked out by drones before they reached the front line. Others were knocked out in the contested corridor. One T-72 tank made it to the aggregate plant before it was damaged by a drone. A Ukrainian post said that they hit eight vehicles. Andrew Perpetua’s map shows six of them. Since three MT-LB’s were immobilized within 300 meters of the plant, and since one T-72 made it into the plant, it is likely that some amount of infantry and supplies also made it into the plant. The next day, the aggregate plant was heavily shelled by Ukrainian artillery.

Two Ukrainian soldiers are shown inside School Number 2 sometime between June 8 and June 23. The smaller building across the open space is the House of Children's and Youth Creativity of the Vovchansk District. They are 400 meters from the aggregate plant…https://x.com/Bielitzling/status/1806643500592611516

Two days after the School Number 2 video was posted, a Ukrainian artillery shell landed directly on a small building, obliterating the building and two Russians. This happened 130 meters southwest of School Number 2…https://t.me/GRIFON501/423

There is a house 150 meters northwest of the aggregate plant. At the beginning of the week, Ukraine attacked it with a drone. Russia later attacked the same house on two different days with drones. This indicates that control of this position switched at least once and is likely in Ukrainian hands. This is a video of one of those Russian drone attacks…https://t.me/VARVARGROUP/266

Ukrainian drone drops in the north of the city and in the contested corridor…https://x.com/EjShahid/status/1807354802420031899

Russia hasn’t been able to advance in this sector and they’ve been constructing defenses. They’ve lost 15 excavators to drone attacks…https://x.com/emilkastehelmi/status/1806030197990539304

A Ukrainian D-30 is damaged or destroyed…https://x.com/foosint/status/1807391332895273317

(….to be continued…)