23 Comments

Whats interesting I do not know anybody who wants to fight till the borders of 1991. Zero. Null.

So i keep wondering who are those people they interview to get such results and how trustworthy are they, as well as zelenskiy support level of 80%.

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Of course you don't know. How do you know such Ukrainians in Moscow?

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get lost.

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Your Russian smell already hurts my eyes

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That's because you're a russian piece of garbage.

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please kindly follow the russian warship.

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So the ship is yours - you can go

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Regarding zaluzhny, his comment about demobilization was quite clear. Its not goin to happen.

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BBC really thinks that the Russians lose 2000 per month? You should multiply by 10 and then you receive the right number.

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Those were deaths confirmed by obituaries in social networks. As many of the dead come from jails and poor villages, while others were professional soldiers without families, the number represents only a fraction of deaths.

Moreover, those are KIA confirmed by the Russian military. MIA probably don't get obituaries, and are not declared KIA for quite a while. WIA are also losses, but are not counted there.

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No BBC knows real death toll is higher, read the article carefully. These numbers are just **confirmed deaths**, e.g. by public obituaries etc. (In contrast, ZSU, US, ... publish **estimates of loses** and loses are deaths and woundeds.

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BBC doesn't think anything. They are applying a type of "visually confirmed losses" methodology to personnel. These are simply numbers that can be 100% confirmed through obituaries, graves etc.

There are many different ways that casualties are estimated and all suffer from a high margin of error. The only thing that can be said is that the number of demobilised VSRF(+"allied") personnel so far is 6 digits. Whether it's 100k or 500k I am not sure even Shoigu and Gerasimov know.

Also, total losses are to a large extent irrelevant. What matters is the VSRF casualty rate and so far, it is too low.

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I believe I saw the same numbers published by Meduza a couple of times over the last months.

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BBC News Russia are working with Mediazona on this. Meduza has reported their findings.

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In Petersburg police jailed thousands of migrants and proposed them to join the Russian army or be deported from the country https://novayagazeta.eu/articles/2024/01/02/nasilstvennaia-mobilizatsiia

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I don't know when that started but I first heard about it a month ago. In one city, I can't remember which, they weren't using holiday gatherings, they were just sweeping the city and arresting immigrants. Non-police "patriots" assisted in the roundups. They were given the same choice: Join or be expelled.

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Tom, Don, many thanks for your continuous hard work and hope you and your close ones have a healthy and happy 2024.

I do have a, rather broad question:

Is there some form of halfway reliable data/estimates around Russian equipment losses/remains.

For example, I am sure there is relatively reliable data in terms of (different types) of ships, which Russia lost and still possesses.

Having seen so many videos of destroyed tanks, IFVs, APCs, MLRS, Buks, Strelas, helicopters, etc. I just wonder, whether these losses can be sustained, knowing some of this can be replaced with older kit.

Behind my question is the second question, whether there may be any hope, that Russia may just run out of (somewhat usable) kit in the area of the various categories (helicopters, planes, tanks, etc.) or whether this is just wishful thinking, which “should be put to bed”?

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Last summer everyone was writing that Russia was out of tires and barrels.

Tom was writing that their aircraft could not survive that many hours of flights.

And they were taking horrendous losses in infantry on daily basis.

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Not sure whether “everyone” wrote that. Likely not.

Well infantry was “replaced” as we all know.

Also not sure about the airframes, guess the missions, which are flown are comparably “non stressful” as it seems those are mostly “deploying glide bombs” ones.

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There is room for hope. The big question is the timeframe for such expectations. The numbers I've seen on the economy, production, rate of loss, etc., suggests that Russia will be able to sustain operations throughout 2024. The further out you go, the greater the pressure on Russian operations and at some point capabilities degrade. Ukraine has its own pressures, manpower and production (either domestic or through western aid) included.

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Thank you Don, for your assessment. Even more important would be the delivery of Taurus and alike…

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Ukrainoasaurus,

There's a website, Oryx blog- google it or I believe it's 'oryxspionkopf dot org' where the author only posts statistics of vehicles that have a picture confirming the damage and have a geolocation that he confirms with high-res overhead imagery. You'll find everything you need there.

From the main page navigate to "Russias war on Ukraine" and you'll see the details. It has tanks by model and type, IFVs, APCs, tube artillery and aircraft.

Similar to the BBCs work on casualties (only counting confirmed deaths and thus admittedly their stats are a base figure), Oryx is the same; if you have any problems let me know and I'll see if I can help.

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Here in Serbia we welcome both Ukrainians and Russians.

They are both Serbian brothers! Ukraine was only country that stand with Yugoslavia when NATO attack and bomb Serbia for 78 days! During NATO aggression USA and western countries killed more than 3000 civilians and less than 1000 soldiers. And more than million people fled from Kosovo and Metohija when NATO bombing campaign started.

We hope that this civil war in Ukraine will end soon because we know, for our own experience during Yugoslavia wars, nothing good come out it - we died and destroy our countries only for the western interest. After the war, western oligarchs privatise everything: our land, our laws(!), our mineral resources, our water…!

But we still hold to our values: we welcome both of our Slavic brothers, Ukrainians and Russians! We will provide you with everything you need! If western countries will start to deport Ukrainians back to Ukraine to fight, come to Serbia! If you are Russian and won't to get mobilised, come to Serbia!

Мир међу људима добре воље!

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