Don's Weekly, 1 January 2024: Part 4
(…continued from Part 3…)
Russia
A drone passes in the night over Bryansk…
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1740847185229762788
…and a microelectronics factory was hit in Bryansk…
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1740855584071802898
Belgorod was attacked in the night…
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1740836658201993435
For some reason, Atesh claims they have infiltrated an arms factory in Tula, near Moscow. If they actually had, announcing it would increase the threat to their operative inside the factory. The possibility exists that they hadn’t but such an announcement lead Russia to invest in more security at the Tula arms factory and other places…https://en.defence-ua.com/news/ukrainian_partisans_infiltrate_tula_arms_plant_in_russia-8946.html
Russian recruitment comes mostly from poorer regions who are attracted to the pay, which is three times the national average salary. When asked, Russians valued their lives between 2.4 to 13.3 rubles. The death benefits to the families is around 10 million rubles. It’s simply an exchange of goods in the market…https://re-russia.net/en/review/196/
Meduza and the BBC only post confirmed Russian deaths. As such, they list just around 28,700 dead compared to the US estimate of 315,000 casualties (dead and wounded), but it’s very useful as a sample for trends. Here they categorize what types of soldiers died each month. From November, 2022 to May, 2023, Russian convicts were the leading source of Russian KIA/200s…
The Year of the “Meatgrinder”. What we know about Russia’s war losses in 2023
Russian paintings of decoy aircraft on an airbase doesn’t come with shadows…
https://twitter.com/bradyafr/status/1740825013576507857
60 km southeast of Melitopol, across the Azov Sea, explosions were heard for two nights in a row near the Russian airbase at Yeysk…
https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1739695350393266278
1800 km east of Moscow, a politician dies falling out of his third floor window…https://sg.news.yahoo.com/pro-putin-politician-found-dead-115254614.html
Diplomacy
Russia claims that Ukrainian attacks on Belgorod caused 20 deaths and 111 injuries to civilians. They called for an emergency session of the security council. The Czech Republic refused to attend, saying, “We refuse to be summoned anywhere by Russia. Czechia will not serve the lie-poisoned propaganda of the aggressor. When Russia wants to discuss the withdrawal of its occupying troops at the Security Council, we will be happy to come.” Russia insisted the Czechs attend to explain why their ammo is being used to kill civilians in Belgorod and accused the EU of being complicit in the crimes of the Kyiv gang. The US and EU all pointed out that there wouldn’t be any deaths if Russia hadn’t invaded. The UN Assistant Secretary General deplored civilian losses on both sides. China expressed concern…https://thehill.com/policy/international/4383333-czechs-refuse-to-attend-un-security-council-meeting-called-by-russia/
Russian anti-aircraft debris was found at one impact site in Belgorod…
https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1741462630152253574
With a vote of 94 in favor, 13 against and 74 abstaining, the UN approved seizing already frozen Russian assets worth $300 billion. Russia, which has already seized some western assets, vows to take control of even more assets of companies from unfriendly countries…
https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1592227456018448384
The west is looking for legal ways to send $300 billion in seized Russian government and oligarch assets to Ukraine. Russia seized several western assets and threatens severe retaliation if the money is sent to Ukraine…https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/dec/22/russia-europe-us-ukraine-seized-assets
Tartarigami discusses how, after Chechnya, Russia used indirect means to invade Ukraine. He could have used Georgia as an example, too. He states that if Russia is not stopped in Ukraine it is also an indirect threat to NATO…
https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1739299928424218624
Russia makes more dire and empty threats, this time to Japan for sending Patriot missiles to the US. Russia and Japan have not signed a peace treaty from WW2 because of Russian occupation of the Kuril islands…https://www.reuters.com/world/russia-warns-japan-over-providing-patriot-air-defence-systems-ukraine-2023-12-27/
Lithuania revoked 135 residency permits of people that support Russia’s war in Ukraine. In Latvia, 1,213 personnel that did not apply for residency were scheduled to be deported. 900 of them have already left the country on their own…https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/polish-prime-minister-tusk-prepares-for-visit-1703711896.html
A German brigade will start moving to Lithuania in 2025 and will be completely moved and permanently deployed there in 2027…https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/agreement-german-brigade-lithuania-is-historic-german-defence-minister-2023-12-18/#:~:text=BERLIN%2C%20Dec%2018%20(Reuters),stations%20troops%20outside%20its%20borders.
Sweden and Finland agreed on broad access for US troops. Denmark agreed to permanent basing of US troops…https://www.voanews.com/a/denmark-us-reach-defense-agreement-/7403888.html
The Italian company Danieli is helping Russia produce steel weapons… https://news.yahoo.com/investigation-italian-company-makes-sure-193012210.html
A US business owner from the state of Kansas pled guilty to repairing and shipping airplane parts to Russia. As part of the plea deal his business, the KanRus Trading Company, forfeited $450,000 worth of equipment…https://www.yahoo.com/news/kansas-man-pleads-guilty-illegally-220810168.html
Equipment
The latest versions of Shahed drones are black, which are harder to see at night, and made of a lighter frame, which may translate to a longer range…
https://twitter.com/erikkannike/status/1739934455702176166?
The Buk 3M can geolocate HIMARS/GMLRS launchers for drone strikes but there have been no reliable reports of them being destroyed. It also has a 70% chance to shoot down an M31 rocket…https://bulgarianmilitary.com/2022/11/09/russian-operator-buk-m3-tracks-projectiles-path-fired-by-himars/
A Kh-101 missile was caught on video dispatching chaff, either because it was triggered by a radar warning receiver, or a preprogrammed waypoint or by a set time…https://theaviationist.com/2023/12/29/russian-cruise-missile-flares/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=russian-cruise-missile-flares
Ukraine is short of artillery ammo. In the south, they used to fire the same amount of ammo as the Russians or slightly more. Now they fire one round to every four or five that the Russians fire. They have twice as many 152mm and 122mm artillery pieces as western artillery and they have even less ammo for them…https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67714719
For about six months, the US has been using the worlds largest 3D metal printer. It can be used to repair parts for vehicles in storage or on active duty…https://3dprinting.com/news/rock-island-arsenal-to-house-largest-metal-3d-printer-in-the-world/
Ukraine received 190 Bradleys and they have been very effective. The firepower allows it to engage both tanks and infantry, but its armor not only protects its crew, it increases the survival of the vehicle itself. This makes it more likely it can be repaired after it is knocked out. After 500 Bradleys were sent to Morocco there might be 2000 left in reserve but they’re going to be used in the US army and won’t be sent to Ukraine.
Bradley production stopped in 1995 and all the infantry, scouts and other frontline units were equipped with them. But vehicles used for medical evacuation and treatment, mortars, command still used M113s. The IEDs of Afghanistan and Iraq prompted a program to replace them with Armored Multi Purpose Vehicles based on Bradley chassis with expanded interior space and options to upgrade in the future. The first US brigade received its complement of AMPVs in March, but there’s not enough M2 chassis in stockpiles so a small number will be produced in the coming years. The Bradleys themselves will start to be replaced in 2030…https://sgp.fas.org/crs/weapons/IF11741.pdf https://www.shephardmedia.com/news/landwarfareintl/bae-systems-receives-120-million-for-more-armoured-multi-purpose-vehicles
Ukraine received about 300 M177 155mm towed artillery pieces but there are no more of them to give. BAE will start producing them again but it’ll take up to three years before the production line starts again…https://mil.in.ua/en/news/bae-systems-resumes-production-of-m2-bradley-and-m777/
One list of crowd-funded equipment says that 9, 688 vehicles and trailers, 8,609 small drones, 76,005 FPV drones and 638 medium to large drones were provided. All from donations in 2023 alone…
Tom, Don, many thanks for your continuous hard work and hope you and your close ones have a healthy and happy 2024.
I do have a, rather broad question:
Is there some form of halfway reliable data/estimates around Russian equipment losses/remains.
For example, I am sure there is relatively reliable data in terms of (different types) of ships, which Russia lost and still possesses.
Having seen so many videos of destroyed tanks, IFVs, APCs, MLRS, Buks, Strelas, helicopters, etc. I just wonder, whether these losses can be sustained, knowing some of this can be replaced with older kit.
Behind my question is the second question, whether there may be any hope, that Russia may just run out of (somewhat usable) kit in the area of the various categories (helicopters, planes, tanks, etc.) or whether this is just wishful thinking, which “should be put to bed”?
BBC really thinks that the Russians lose 2000 per month? You should multiply by 10 and then you receive the right number.