It appears that the unmatched Israeli military is pounding all of Iran's proxies with results as significant as the US victories in Iraq (for an old guy like me, it actually feels more like the continuous string of US victories in Vietnam, but that's just me). Meanwhile Bibi Netanyahu has much more in common with Victor Orban than Golda Meyer or even Menachem Begin.
I looked up the Dahiya doctrine on wikipedia and found this discussion:
"The Dahiya doctrine, or Dahya doctrine, is an Israeli military strategy involving the large-scale destruction of civilian infrastructure, or domicide, to pressure hostile governments. " Furthermore and Israeli colonel amplified the doctrine by writing that Israel "should target economic interests and the centers of civilian power that support the organization" . . . "The logic is to harm the civilian population so much so that they will then turn against the militants, forcing the enemy to sue for peace."
This seems to me to have been taken from the Soviet . . . ah . . . er . . . ahem! ahem! AHEM! . . . Russian playbook of military operations against an enemy. Concidence? I hardly think so.
I also recall from my dim, dark past when I was a mere tadpole (OK a college student) that historians have concluded from the Allied strategic bombing of the Third Reich during World War II [and Japan] that such bombing does not induce the victim population to pressure its leaders to surrender, negotiate, or otherwise conform to the wishes of the Allies undertaking such strategic bombing. The bombing achieved the opposite effect to unite the population even more closely with its leadership.****
I can only conclude that Israel's (and Russia's . . . and . . . et. al.) bombing of a target population will only serve to unite further that population with its leaders. The leader's or leaders' popularity is not an issue here. Certainly seems to me to apply to the Ukrainian population at least. Thus, such bombing ultimately is useless in the long run when it comes to persuading the enemy to cry "Uncle."
****I also think that we will see the Israeli population unite itself more closely with its very leader (Netanyahu) even though such a leader is unpopular with much of the Israeli electorate and even though such leader is a first rate son of a b*tch. Not saying in any way that the other leaders of the various waring groups are anything but total @$$holes too.
I think the only "doctrine" really at play there is an eye for an eye and a tooth for a tooth, as it says in their Good Book.
Where a scorched earth doctrine has been used effectively by Russia and its clients in say, Chechnya or Syria, the occupier had the ability to project force and take casualties on the ground in large numbers. The IDF has never fought a true war of attrition and the closest it ever had to a proxy to fight a large scale war for it was the US in Iraq, 2003. So the big question now is how far AIPAC's influence extends. You can pretty much quantify it in US (and British) soldier's lives. And possibly of course as they start throwing the dice on nuclear escalation, in terms of the lives of everyone on earth.
While I agree that bombing the civilian society doesnt lead its population to rebell against its leaders I have heard that in US surveys among Germans right after the war the bombing was seen as very difficult and effective by said population. No my problem here is that I havent found a source for this. Americans probably did surveys but what the results were (not to mention interpretation if them) is unclear. But if the bombing does not incite rebellion they might force the opponent into some behaviour you want, create apathy or whatever. Evil does not mean without results.
You are absolutely wrong. It's a double-edged sword that works both ways. Have you ever considered the possibility that you can equally hate the degenerate marauders in power, who for a whole decade could not ensure the security of the state, and hate the fierce enemy who seeks to destroy you? Why should Ukrainians unite around a degenerate who is a puppet of Jewish oligarch Pinchuk and criminal authority from Donbas Rinat Akhmetov and Firtash? In Zelensky's party, all people, all deputies are oligarchic. That is why corruption and incompetence are everywhere. That is why there are idiots who cover for each other and profitable and loyal oligarchs in the General Staff of Ukraine.
I think it goes deeper than that: a lot of thinking pasterns I notice in Israel remind me of toxic ideas circulating in late russian and Austro-Hungarian empires.
Hi Tom. There is a lot of talk in the press about Israeli retaliation against Iran. It seems that Iran is not particularly concerned about Israel's response to its attacks. So, I would like to understand what forces and to what depth Israel can strike Iran - the number of aircraft carrying air-to-ground missiles and long-range ballistic missiles.
Essentially marking anyone who remains in Gaza City as a militant and starving them in turn. Nazi comparisons are overused, but reading this really reminds of the Nazi's policy of creating "dead zones" where everyone was considered a "partisan."
Every now and again I think about the half a dozen or so SSBNs docked up the coast in Seattle and wonder what it would take to convince a crew to make history and improve the general state of planet Earth by unleashing a couple hundred nuclear warheads on the Middle East.
I admit, sometimes I really want to see how dedicated to living in this "Holy Land" everyone there truly is. Especially Zionists. If Zion is a radioactive wasteland, will you still insist on being there? Not judging, just curious.
Huh, wasn't there a part of the Bible where an Israelite king by the name of Solomon proposed much the same solution to a similarly bitter feud?
Another good polemic but Putin and Netanyahu being "buddies" sounds like a moral oversimplification. Putin and the Iranians clearly have some kind of a pragmatic alliance going on, both in Syria and in terms of Shaheds etc. What can we say about Netanyahu and Putin? They are both evil old bastards with similar populist/nationalist instincts, but divergent geopolitical goals.
Nearly half of Bibi's last election campaign was supported by huge posters showing him and Pudding shaking hands... and most of people electing him are pro-Russia in regards of the Russia-Ukraine War, too.
They might not be as close buddies like Pudding and Erdo, but are definitely 'good business partners'.
"... and most of people electing him are pro-Russia in regards of the Russia-Ukraine War, too."
The same applies to 40% of the Republican party (the other 60% being self-serving cowards) of MAGA crazies plus the MAGA-istas in the non-Republican electorate. IMHO, this makes them all a bunch of fascists with the orange haired, American fascist leader pragmatically an agent of Russia or rather an agent of Putin.
I'm really starting to think that even the senior members of the IDF have never heard the term "guerrilla war."
Call me crazy, but I did read Mao's "On Guerrilla war." And his point was: if the counter-guerrilla force can't get control over the population, they will lose.
The Japanese were a lot more ruthless than the IDF, but that didn't lead to victory. And the IDF still has zero control over Gazans--while Hams has thousands of wanna-be recruits still...
(English Civil War jingle: "He whose house doth burn, must soldier turn.")
I thus fear that Hamas' 7 Oct attack drove most Israelis slightly (or greatly) crazy. And the few sane exceptions like Ayalon can't stop the craziness.
Example:
Bibi's announcement that the IDF is about to "free" the Lebanese--by bombing Beirut?! And then they're going to topple...the Ayatolahs?!
Honest question then:
Are the Israelis the worlds best tacticians--and world's worst strategists?
Well, nothing of this is valid for Israel. Its politicians and armed forces are above all the laws and regulations, while 'respecting international laws', of course...
...and, this morning, I've been informed that I'm 'ignorant and arrogant, high-handed' and should try to remain a 'reporter'... and that around the time Israel's Minister of Finances was explaining in a TV-interview, that he wants a Jewish state that includes Jordan, Lebanon, and lands from Egypt, Syria, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia...
Wow, i read a book about ligth infantery and tell about the good of this fores, but if the Braves insurgents syrians can autfougtht the people of chosen ones need see this tactics and train with urgency!
Thanks for your time, Tom and i hope the best for you and your folks!
In the 1970s, Oman was crucial in protecting Oman from a China-supported Dhofari insurgency. The Brits took away all the fame for themselves (see 'Battle of Mirbat' and similar stories), but, actually, it was Iranians who did most of the fighting (and much of dying) to save Oman for its Sultan.
Unsurprisingly, the Sultanate is thankful until very day, and the last few days the Omani armed forces run a joint exercise with the Iranian armed forces.
...and Omani authorities are looking the other way when the IRGC-QF's and Houthis are setting up their fronts in the country.
Thanks for the analysis ..
Thank you Tom.
It appears that the unmatched Israeli military is pounding all of Iran's proxies with results as significant as the US victories in Iraq (for an old guy like me, it actually feels more like the continuous string of US victories in Vietnam, but that's just me). Meanwhile Bibi Netanyahu has much more in common with Victor Orban than Golda Meyer or even Menachem Begin.
I looked up the Dahiya doctrine on wikipedia and found this discussion:
"The Dahiya doctrine, or Dahya doctrine, is an Israeli military strategy involving the large-scale destruction of civilian infrastructure, or domicide, to pressure hostile governments. " Furthermore and Israeli colonel amplified the doctrine by writing that Israel "should target economic interests and the centers of civilian power that support the organization" . . . "The logic is to harm the civilian population so much so that they will then turn against the militants, forcing the enemy to sue for peace."
This seems to me to have been taken from the Soviet . . . ah . . . er . . . ahem! ahem! AHEM! . . . Russian playbook of military operations against an enemy. Concidence? I hardly think so.
I also recall from my dim, dark past when I was a mere tadpole (OK a college student) that historians have concluded from the Allied strategic bombing of the Third Reich during World War II [and Japan] that such bombing does not induce the victim population to pressure its leaders to surrender, negotiate, or otherwise conform to the wishes of the Allies undertaking such strategic bombing. The bombing achieved the opposite effect to unite the population even more closely with its leadership.****
I can only conclude that Israel's (and Russia's . . . and . . . et. al.) bombing of a target population will only serve to unite further that population with its leaders. The leader's or leaders' popularity is not an issue here. Certainly seems to me to apply to the Ukrainian population at least. Thus, such bombing ultimately is useless in the long run when it comes to persuading the enemy to cry "Uncle."
****I also think that we will see the Israeli population unite itself more closely with its very leader (Netanyahu) even though such a leader is unpopular with much of the Israeli electorate and even though such leader is a first rate son of a b*tch. Not saying in any way that the other leaders of the various waring groups are anything but total @$$holes too.
I think the only "doctrine" really at play there is an eye for an eye and a tooth for a tooth, as it says in their Good Book.
Where a scorched earth doctrine has been used effectively by Russia and its clients in say, Chechnya or Syria, the occupier had the ability to project force and take casualties on the ground in large numbers. The IDF has never fought a true war of attrition and the closest it ever had to a proxy to fight a large scale war for it was the US in Iraq, 2003. So the big question now is how far AIPAC's influence extends. You can pretty much quantify it in US (and British) soldier's lives. And possibly of course as they start throwing the dice on nuclear escalation, in terms of the lives of everyone on earth.
No. Hundred eyes for an eye.at least.
Putin was able to end the Chechen war only by co-opting Kadyrov's Dad.
That produced peace.
The Russians never actually "won" the war.
But he won the peace, which is more important anyway.
Depends on what happens after a Putin--and a very sick Kadyrov die.
The down side of "personalist" regimes...
25 years of peace isn't a nuance.
25 years of subjugation. What Russia specialises in.
True. I dont think Putin can hold on to large parts of Caucasus without Kadyrov.
While I agree that bombing the civilian society doesnt lead its population to rebell against its leaders I have heard that in US surveys among Germans right after the war the bombing was seen as very difficult and effective by said population. No my problem here is that I havent found a source for this. Americans probably did surveys but what the results were (not to mention interpretation if them) is unclear. But if the bombing does not incite rebellion they might force the opponent into some behaviour you want, create apathy or whatever. Evil does not mean without results.
You are absolutely wrong. It's a double-edged sword that works both ways. Have you ever considered the possibility that you can equally hate the degenerate marauders in power, who for a whole decade could not ensure the security of the state, and hate the fierce enemy who seeks to destroy you? Why should Ukrainians unite around a degenerate who is a puppet of Jewish oligarch Pinchuk and criminal authority from Donbas Rinat Akhmetov and Firtash? In Zelensky's party, all people, all deputies are oligarchic. That is why corruption and incompetence are everywhere. That is why there are idiots who cover for each other and profitable and loyal oligarchs in the General Staff of Ukraine.
I think it goes deeper than that: a lot of thinking pasterns I notice in Israel remind me of toxic ideas circulating in late russian and Austro-Hungarian empires.
Hi Tom. There is a lot of talk in the press about Israeli retaliation against Iran. It seems that Iran is not particularly concerned about Israel's response to its attacks. So, I would like to understand what forces and to what depth Israel can strike Iran - the number of aircraft carrying air-to-ground missiles and long-range ballistic missiles.
Tom, have you read about Israel's "general's plan" for North Gaza. https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/netanyahu-tells-lawmakers-hes-considering-generals-plan-to-lay-siege-to-northern-gaza/
Essentially marking anyone who remains in Gaza City as a militant and starving them in turn. Nazi comparisons are overused, but reading this really reminds of the Nazi's policy of creating "dead zones" where everyone was considered a "partisan."
Thank you, interesting!
My suggestion: Let's crusade again and reestablish the Kingdom of Jerusalem. All will be well and good then.
Uh, didn't turn out well...😉
The people who want peace have no power. The people who have power love power more than peace.
Every now and again I think about the half a dozen or so SSBNs docked up the coast in Seattle and wonder what it would take to convince a crew to make history and improve the general state of planet Earth by unleashing a couple hundred nuclear warheads on the Middle East.
I admit, sometimes I really want to see how dedicated to living in this "Holy Land" everyone there truly is. Especially Zionists. If Zion is a radioactive wasteland, will you still insist on being there? Not judging, just curious.
Huh, wasn't there a part of the Bible where an Israelite king by the name of Solomon proposed much the same solution to a similarly bitter feud?
Another good polemic but Putin and Netanyahu being "buddies" sounds like a moral oversimplification. Putin and the Iranians clearly have some kind of a pragmatic alliance going on, both in Syria and in terms of Shaheds etc. What can we say about Netanyahu and Putin? They are both evil old bastards with similar populist/nationalist instincts, but divergent geopolitical goals.
Nearly half of Bibi's last election campaign was supported by huge posters showing him and Pudding shaking hands... and most of people electing him are pro-Russia in regards of the Russia-Ukraine War, too.
They might not be as close buddies like Pudding and Erdo, but are definitely 'good business partners'.
"... and most of people electing him are pro-Russia in regards of the Russia-Ukraine War, too."
The same applies to 40% of the Republican party (the other 60% being self-serving cowards) of MAGA crazies plus the MAGA-istas in the non-Republican electorate. IMHO, this makes them all a bunch of fascists with the orange haired, American fascist leader pragmatically an agent of Russia or rather an agent of Putin.
I don't think Bibi is much interested in helping Ukraine, or even helping the US with anything but Israel.
Never has joined any coalition we've put together in the ME...almost like they were...and just out for their own?!
I'm really starting to think that even the senior members of the IDF have never heard the term "guerrilla war."
Call me crazy, but I did read Mao's "On Guerrilla war." And his point was: if the counter-guerrilla force can't get control over the population, they will lose.
The Japanese were a lot more ruthless than the IDF, but that didn't lead to victory. And the IDF still has zero control over Gazans--while Hams has thousands of wanna-be recruits still...
(English Civil War jingle: "He whose house doth burn, must soldier turn.")
I thus fear that Hamas' 7 Oct attack drove most Israelis slightly (or greatly) crazy. And the few sane exceptions like Ayalon can't stop the craziness.
Example:
Bibi's announcement that the IDF is about to "free" the Lebanese--by bombing Beirut?! And then they're going to topple...the Ayatolahs?!
Honest question then:
Are the Israelis the worlds best tacticians--and world's worst strategists?
And if this is "anti-semitic."
Well then, is REALITY "anti-semitic??"
Well, nothing of this is valid for Israel. Its politicians and armed forces are above all the laws and regulations, while 'respecting international laws', of course...
...and, this morning, I've been informed that I'm 'ignorant and arrogant, high-handed' and should try to remain a 'reporter'... and that around the time Israel's Minister of Finances was explaining in a TV-interview, that he wants a Jewish state that includes Jordan, Lebanon, and lands from Egypt, Syria, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia...
Is impresive the iranians/hesbo ligth infantery, perhaps one of the best in the word, or i am wrong?
I do not find the Hezbollah/IRGC that good: they were regularly outfought by Syrian insurgents.
It's the Israelis who are bad. At least much worse than they've famed themselves into.
Wow, i read a book about ligth infantery and tell about the good of this fores, but if the Braves insurgents syrians can autfougtht the people of chosen ones need see this tactics and train with urgency!
Thanks for your time, Tom and i hope the best for you and your folks!
Milchmädchenrechnung:
800 ? ->
1 Arab = 4
200 * 4 = 800
Really Nice review on the actual situation in the "great middle east war"?
Great article Tom !
I do not understand why Oman is permitting the supply of weapons the Houthis from Iran through its territory ?
In the 1970s, Oman was crucial in protecting Oman from a China-supported Dhofari insurgency. The Brits took away all the fame for themselves (see 'Battle of Mirbat' and similar stories), but, actually, it was Iranians who did most of the fighting (and much of dying) to save Oman for its Sultan.
Unsurprisingly, the Sultanate is thankful until very day, and the last few days the Omani armed forces run a joint exercise with the Iranian armed forces.
...and Omani authorities are looking the other way when the IRGC-QF's and Houthis are setting up their fronts in the country.
Any comment on UNIFIL? I forgot that they existed until Israel started targeting them. What exactly do they do? Which peace are they protecting?