just now some of TG chanles wrote that was destroyed 1 Iscander and 2 were damaged . I really sceptical is about it but may be You could tell more (may be during some time later)
Can the explosion of a plane carrying missiles damage nearby planes? Are the missiles somehow protected against fire and will they simply burn or explode?
Yes, of course: a detonation of a missile installed under the aircraft is near-certain to damage anything parked within some 100 metres away. That's why the aircraft of this kind are usually not parked 'wing-to-wing', but well spaced away from each other. In this regards, the Russians didn't do anything wrong.
"They not only destroyed about 50% of ‘regularly operational’- but also between 70% and 100% of ‘fully mission capable’ aircraft. They also destroyed approximately ‘monthly production worth’ in Kh-101 missiles."
insgesamt ein Mega-Erfolg dieser brilliant durchdachten/-geführten operation.
kosten-nutzen-verhältnis ist einfach gigantisch.
* allein die idee "fertighäuser mit durchblick" mit den oben angebrachten solarpanellen für stromversorgung als KI-dronen-startplatform einzusetzen, sodass beim transport bis zum zielgebiet keinem was auffällt, ist mE nobelverdächtig ))
Thank you, Tom! Even only those 95s were more then I have expected Ukraine could achieve. They were really nasty, and if I understand correctly were unique in their reach. For example responsible for knocking out gas infrastructure in Western Ukraine, which was probably pretty painful strike.
Very interesting. Michael Fiszer, former military pilot, now a journalist, who is writing daily (!) briefs on the war since it started (published in Polish media, I think this is the only case here done with such regularity), when asked in a podcast whether this will have a real effect on the war said no, because while the losses are significant, the limiting factor for Russians was the supply of missiles, not the airplanes. This was, I think, before the video was published, so the details were unclear.
In cases of this kind, crucial for successful analysis is to be patient, and search for minute details.
....like what bombers are regularly appearing on photos and videos released by the Keystone Cops in Moscow, or videos showing Kh-101s installed on bombers.
The sheer volume of 'OSINT' one can extract this way is frequently 'hard to believe'.
Excellent assessment. Lovely to see the Ukrainian drones hugging Puddings bombers. The fact that pudding was telling Dumpf that he had to respond to the operation tells you that he isn’t a happy bunny. The fact that this was done under the noses of the FSB means that a few people are going to have a career wrecker on their hands… maybe even a bonus membership of the Moscow window flying club. This is going to annoy all the right people. Pity about the A-50’s and the Tu-22, however I think that the side effects of this might be even worse than the strike as the FSB and go crazy chasing every lorry in Russia. This is going to cause a lot of misery for a long time. What is worrying is who it will inspire and now that the Ukrainians have opened Pandoras lorry this could prove to be very vexing for all of us. I don’t blame them Pudding started this wretched war the ghastly unknown is what price we are all going to have to pay to put him back in his box.
"Pandora's Lorry" sounds like a much better name for this Operation Spider Web :D Though it was also a brilliant modern reenactment of the Trojan Horse...
Another great expression! Combine black humor with Substack sarcasm and at least we can laugh at someone else's [i.e., the supporters of Rússkiy Mir] misery. Well so much for my humanity ... it just went into the toilet along with some Russian combat aircraft. **LOL**
Interesting - very careless of him walking next to windows. I wonder if Naryshkin is going to be slipping on a banana peel out of a Moscow window and if not how he managed to weasel out of that one. It is not like the FSB has covered itself in glory since 2022.
"I think that the side effects of this might be even worse than the strike as the FSB and go crazy chasing every lorry in Russia"
Thats why i think they should send more of them. They dont have to be "armed", some toy drone for kids will do, to tell them they have to check every truck in the country.
Thanks Tom. Maybe you'll get a call from Kiev before the next one.
Pity that the A-50s were just shells, but certainly a good operation overall.
Just destroying the missiles in Russia instead of having them launched against high-priority kindergartens and hospitals in Ukraine would've been more than enough.
Thanks for the report. Regarding the A 50, I have seen the version, that one of them is RF-50608 -- the plane, that was previously damaged in Belorus with other drone in 2023. I don't know anything else to confirm it, but at least it seems more reasonable that they couldn't repair the damage and made that plane the donor, that was eventually finished off
Morning Tom.
Miss your posts on FB. I was thrown off your page. 😏
Really? Must find a free slot...
Thanks, Tom, for a sobering but honest post.
Thanks Tom!
Any idea why Engels-2 wasn't attacked?
Dear Tom
just now some of TG chanles wrote that was destroyed 1 Iscander and 2 were damaged . I really sceptical is about it but may be You could tell more (may be during some time later)
https://t.me/monitor_ukr/40983
Yup. Though, AFAIK, this is a separate operation. Spider Web didn't target any of such Russian assets.
Thank you Tom.
Can the explosion of a plane carrying missiles damage nearby planes? Are the missiles somehow protected against fire and will they simply burn or explode?
and BTW UA claims 3 nice hits today https://t.me/operativnoZSU/182787
Yes, of course: a detonation of a missile installed under the aircraft is near-certain to damage anything parked within some 100 metres away. That's why the aircraft of this kind are usually not parked 'wing-to-wing', but well spaced away from each other. In this regards, the Russians didn't do anything wrong.
What a pitty :/
Lesson learned (for Ukrainians): the 'next time', bring in somebody excelling in aircraft identification...
"They not only destroyed about 50% of ‘regularly operational’- but also between 70% and 100% of ‘fully mission capable’ aircraft. They also destroyed approximately ‘monthly production worth’ in Kh-101 missiles."
insgesamt ein Mega-Erfolg dieser brilliant durchdachten/-geführten operation.
kosten-nutzen-verhältnis ist einfach gigantisch.
* allein die idee "fertighäuser mit durchblick" mit den oben angebrachten solarpanellen für stromversorgung als KI-dronen-startplatform einzusetzen, sodass beim transport bis zum zielgebiet keinem was auffällt, ist mE nobelverdächtig ))
Thank you, Tom! Even only those 95s were more then I have expected Ukraine could achieve. They were really nasty, and if I understand correctly were unique in their reach. For example responsible for knocking out gas infrastructure in Western Ukraine, which was probably pretty painful strike.
Yup. No doubt, the blow against the Tu-95-fleet was the biggest - and most durable - success of this operation.
In comparison to that achievement, 'everything else doesn't matter' (except that all the involved Ukrainians came away unharmed, of course).
Very interesting. Michael Fiszer, former military pilot, now a journalist, who is writing daily (!) briefs on the war since it started (published in Polish media, I think this is the only case here done with such regularity), when asked in a podcast whether this will have a real effect on the war said no, because while the losses are significant, the limiting factor for Russians was the supply of missiles, not the airplanes. This was, I think, before the video was published, so the details were unclear.
In cases of this kind, crucial for successful analysis is to be patient, and search for minute details.
....like what bombers are regularly appearing on photos and videos released by the Keystone Cops in Moscow, or videos showing Kh-101s installed on bombers.
The sheer volume of 'OSINT' one can extract this way is frequently 'hard to believe'.
Дякую!!!!
Thank you for this precise counting. It is very helpful.
Excellent assessment. Lovely to see the Ukrainian drones hugging Puddings bombers. The fact that pudding was telling Dumpf that he had to respond to the operation tells you that he isn’t a happy bunny. The fact that this was done under the noses of the FSB means that a few people are going to have a career wrecker on their hands… maybe even a bonus membership of the Moscow window flying club. This is going to annoy all the right people. Pity about the A-50’s and the Tu-22, however I think that the side effects of this might be even worse than the strike as the FSB and go crazy chasing every lorry in Russia. This is going to cause a lot of misery for a long time. What is worrying is who it will inspire and now that the Ukrainians have opened Pandoras lorry this could prove to be very vexing for all of us. I don’t blame them Pudding started this wretched war the ghastly unknown is what price we are all going to have to pay to put him back in his box.
"Pandora's Lorry" sounds like a much better name for this Operation Spider Web :D Though it was also a brilliant modern reenactment of the Trojan Horse...
"Moscow window flying club."
Another great expression! Combine black humor with Substack sarcasm and at least we can laugh at someone else's [i.e., the supporters of Rússkiy Mir] misery. Well so much for my humanity ... it just went into the toilet along with some Russian combat aircraft. **LOL**
He has to be put in a coffin for sure.
there are rumours that Kobylash fell out of a window, but not confirmed AFAIK.
Interesting - very careless of him walking next to windows. I wonder if Naryshkin is going to be slipping on a banana peel out of a Moscow window and if not how he managed to weasel out of that one. It is not like the FSB has covered itself in glory since 2022.
But it’s still Putins power base.
"I think that the side effects of this might be even worse than the strike as the FSB and go crazy chasing every lorry in Russia"
Thats why i think they should send more of them. They dont have to be "armed", some toy drone for kids will do, to tell them they have to check every truck in the country.
Thank you for your valuable analysis. It is really encouraging. to be continued I hope.
Excellent work Tom. Detailed post-attack analysis. Much needed clarity 👍. Thank you.
Hi Tom, great analysis as per usual and very informative, however I've got brain fog please remind me what 'FMC' means. TKS in anticipation!
About paragraph four: "Important is: it was loaded with Kh-101 cruise missiles. That means: the aircraft was not only fully mission capable (FMC)..."
Thanks Tom. Maybe you'll get a call from Kiev before the next one.
Pity that the A-50s were just shells, but certainly a good operation overall.
Just destroying the missiles in Russia instead of having them launched against high-priority kindergartens and hospitals in Ukraine would've been more than enough.
Thanks for the report. Regarding the A 50, I have seen the version, that one of them is RF-50608 -- the plane, that was previously damaged in Belorus with other drone in 2023. I don't know anything else to confirm it, but at least it seems more reasonable that they couldn't repair the damage and made that plane the donor, that was eventually finished off