Bean-counting

Hello everybody!

Yesterday, few hours after the ‘release’ of my feature on the ‘size’ of the Russian bomber fleet, the SBU of Ukraine has, finally, released a ‘compendium’ of all the UAV-strikes from 1 June.

Nicest thing about this video is that most of it is crisp and sequences long enough to enable the identification of several aircraft. Me thinks, that’s also crucial for gauging the outcome of the Operation Sider Web, concluded on 1 June 2025.

As usually, I’ll start with the start - and both you, estimeed reader, and me, shall then hope I didn’t mess up my related notes…

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Olenya AB

The video starts with the well-known sequence of strikes on 4 Tu-95MS’ and a single An-12 (now it’s sure: this was an An-12, no An-22), at Olenya AB (‘the air base in the rain’). The inscription ‘FAILSAFE’ visible on these sequences means the UAVs were underway on autonomous guidance (steered by AI, not by a human pilot).

1.) I’m not sure about identity of the first Tu-95MS visible. It could be Bort 21, serial RF-94121, nick-named Samara, or Bort 18, serial RF-94131 (no nick-name known). Important is: it was loaded with Kh-101 cruise missiles. That said: the aircraft was not only fully mission capable (FMC), but in the process of preparations for a combat sortie - a strike on Ukraine. And it was blown up. Simply perfect.

2.) As next, we see two or three sequences of attacks on the Tu-95MS Bort 14, serial RF-94132, nick-named Voronezh. Was one of older airframes, but was the first to get hit during this attack. The ‘nicest’ thing about it being hit was: it was loaded with Kh-101 cruise missiles, thus FMC, and it was hit (two times), set afire and destroyed.

3.) Then we see another attack on the Tu-95MS mentioned under Point 1 again (where I’m not sure which one was that), followed by a strike on the Tu-95MS I think was the Bort 11, serial number RF-94127, nick-named Vorkuta. This was a well-known aircraft, participating in a number of air shows, open days etc. in the 1990s and 2000s. Foremost: it was FMC, had pylons for Kh-101s installed… and it was destroyed.

4.) As next, we see strikes on two Tu-22M-3s. Sadly, their serials were overpainted and no identification is possible, but at least one was definitely hit (perhaps by two UAVs).

5.) Finally, we see the Antonov An-12 transport, Bort 11 (definitely NO An-22: that type is much larger). An aircraft probably used to haul Kh-101s from the factory to Olenya AB. This was destroyed as well.

The total result of the strike at Olenya AB is confirmed by this satellite photo:

(BTW, the fourth Tu-95MS destroyed during this strike, the one visible in the upper left corner of the satellite photo is said to have been the Bort 22, serial RF-94257, nick-named Chelyabinsk. One of the last three aircraft of this type manufactured. Obviously, this was destroyed.)

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Ivanovo AB

6.) The video is then switching to the strike on two A-50 AWACS at Ivanovo AB:

Both were hit into their radomes.

Now, yes, at least the nearest one is covered by tyres, which many are interpreting as ‘operational’. However, and sorry to disappoint: check the missing engines, missing other parts, missing Borts, and the presence of ‘Soviet Red Stars’ (as in use until the mid-1990s; ever since, ‘Russian Red Stars’ are used as national markings: these are outlinned in blue).

By best will, there’s only one conclusion: these two jets were not flown in ages. They were ‘cannibalised for spares’, and left to root where they are.

(And no: they’re of no use even as sources of spares any more. Mind that - thanks to Arthur for reminder - crews of the original A-50s used to include three engineers, responsible just to repair the avionics during the mission. Because this was breaking down so often. Thinking there’s anything useful left in these two aircraft… sigh…)

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Belaya AB

7.) The video is then continued with sequences from strikes on six, perhaps seven Tu-22M-3s at Belaya AB. At least one miss is shown, but the majority of UAVs have hit, and - most of aircraft damaged were set afire, too. Indeed, total impression is that of ‘entire base set afire’ - which is ‘nice to watch’ when one keeps in mind how many civilians in Ukraine were killed by their attacks.

However, and reglardless how much covered by tyres, at least two of Tu-22M-3s hit seem to have not been flown for quite some time. Foremost: due to the shortage of Kh-32 missiles, and following the shoot-down of one of Tu-22M-3 bombers by Ukrainians, in April the last year, and regardless how ‘spectacular’, this was the ‘nice but less important’ result of this attack.

Sadly, the pilots flying it have ignored a number of obviously operational Il-76 transports and Il-78 tankers visible in the background. Fortunately, they did not ignore additional Tu-95MS’, though.

8.) Indeed, the sequence is then continued with two takes of attacks on the Tu-95MS Bort 22, serial RF-94120, nick-named Kozelsk - and then a bomber loaded with Kh-101s - which, eventually, blew up:

9.) Additional sequences (inserted without particular order) are showing strikes on two or three additional Tu-95MS at Belaya AB. Sadly, couldn’t identify any of these. Can only say that at least one, possibly two of bombers have had pylons for Kh-101s (indeed: even Kh-101s installed on them, too):

That said, gauging by this post-strike SAR-photo, all four Tu-95MS’ attacked at Belaya AB were destroyed:

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Conclusions

In total, the video is showing the following:

Olenya AB:

4 Tu-95MS

1 Tu-22M-3

1 An-12

Ivanovo AB:

2 A-50

Belaya AB:

4 Tu-95MS

6 Tu-22M-3

Considering three additional Tu-22M-3s were, reportedly, hit at Diaghilevo/Dagilevo AB, the total looks like this:

• 8 Tu-95MS (all 8 FMC, at least 6 loaded with Kh-101; this was between 70% and 100% of the ‘most often flown’ part of the Russian Tu-95MS-fleet, and thus the ‘best part’, ‘biggest success’ of this operation);

• 7 (perhaps 10) Tu-22M-3 (‘nice’, but not as important as knocking out Tu-95MS’);

• 2 A-50s (‘wasted effort’; both were non-operational for years and useless even as sources of spares)

• 1 An-12 (‘just a transport’)

Together: 8 Tu-95MS, 7-10 Tu-22M-3, 2 A-50s, 1 An-12.

In a war of attrition - which is what this conflict meanwhile is - crucial is to knock out items the enemy cannot replace, or has major problems with replacing. The Russians can’t replace any of these aircraft: they are not in production for 25 years (or longer). In the case of A-50s, they cannot even overhaul and repair, while in the case of Tu-95MS this costs them lots of time and lots of money. The Russian aviation industry was struggling with the lack of skilled workforce already before the invasion on Ukraine: ever since, it is experiencing constantly increasing problems with importing Western high-tech necessary for their avionics and weapons (so much so: the A-100 - the project for an upgrade of A-50s - was cancelled for the lack of the same, while the Su-57 is ‘heading nowhere’).

From that point of view, the strikes on Tu-22M-3s were ‘nice’ (about 30% of bombers known as ‘operated as of 2022-2023’ were knocked out, but they’ve been largely inactive for over a year), and those on the two A-50s were ‘entirely pointless’ (both were non-operational ‘for decades’).

However, the strikes on Tu-95MS have mauled the Russian strategic bomber fleet. They not only destroyed about 50% of ‘regularly operational’- but also between 70% and 100% of ‘fully mission capable’ aircraft. They also destroyed approximately ‘monthly production worth’ in Kh-101 missiles. Means: this kind of threat for Ukraine is out of commission for at least a month, probably longer. The rest now depends on how much of ‘his’ money is Pudding ready to invest into repairs of the fleet…and then how long is it going to take to manufacture new Kh-101s.

Except for the way in which the UAVs were smuggled into Russia to then launch near-simultaneous attacks at air bases so far away from each other (is a lesson certain to be learned by numerous countries, but non-state actors, too), precisely this point is what, yes, made this attack both ‘very important’ and ‘highly effective’.