Hello everybody! For today, Don has prepared his review of factors influencing the flow of the final phase of battle of Avidiivka, and that at operational- and tactical levels. Means: what did matter in regards of supplies, command, and equipment. ***
Great write up Don. Appreciate the breakdown of the withdrawal and the extreme pressure the Ukrainians were under. Even elite units like the 3rd Assault would really have a hard time holding on if there’s no artillery support to be had… not counting the numerical superiority of the Russians and disregard for losses.
You're exactly right. Without artillery, no one could hold the city. There was talk about them counter-attacking but that may have been part of the deception plan for the withdrawal.
The shortage of ammo is well known but I still think that ZSU could have either prepared more shells for the withdrawal or started it earlier when it has better positions.
Ukraine brought a large stockpile of shells for the 120mm mortars of the 3rd Brigade. That stockpile was expended. They brought a large number of drones and the drone teams of all the brigades went with little sleep last week. As useful as drones are, they are not artillery.
I was reading about a WW2 German commander that was involved in the planning and execution of numerous withdrawals during the war and his criticism of the German high command is that they didn't initiate the withdrawals until the situation had deteriorated. This is a common problem, knowing the right time to withdraw.
Wrong tactics by both sides, no camouflage being used, no night fighting or attacks. Seems to be daylight fighting only, come to Africa and both will get their ass kicked!
The sky is usually cloudy ("The leaden skies of Sarmatia" as ancient Romans used to say) and everything is mined. Whoever walks in darkness is a prey to snipers and drones with thermal sights.
And yet I reported that Russia did attack at night and Ukraine has done so in the past, as well. There is a shortage of thermal and low light vision devices but those that have them are deadly to those operating at night without them. Much of the Ukrainian withdrawals occurred at night. At Zenit, a daylight withdrawal would have been suicide. The night time withdrawal was merely deadly.
Like Denys says, the Wagner successor groups are operating in several countries in Africa and dominating on behalf of the governments in brutal fashion as they export lumber and minerals as part of their payment. Ukraine special forces are also in Sudan and they are punishing the Russian forces.
Thanks a lot for a good overview and summary of the whole situation. I guess that the maps shown here are based on DeepState maps and I think it would be reasonable to credit them (sorry if my missed it somewhere). I think it's also important to credit/link map sources as this allows others to check them out themselves.
I absolutely rely on DeepState, Google Maps and Andrew Perpetua's maps. Every once in a while I mention it. I also use Military Land as they track unit locations in a general way.
Just would like to clarify that I absolutely didn't mean to offend and apologies for missing your previous references. Just felt like it was missing in this article.
Once again many thanks for your extremely great work. I am more than sure that whole community appreciates it immensely.
No, I took the comments as you meant them. It was missing in this article and others. I'm all for other people using those great tools to find out information.
Quite sad reading. Wish that the ZSU had much more ammunition and a GBAD system to protect Avdiivka from the Sukhois attacking in the past two weeks (at least).
The "sudden" collapse of the defence reminds me of the expression (from a Hemingway story) "Gradually, then suddenly"
(of course, history is not written with "ifs" and "buts")
The article does not mention that at the Zenit position, the remaining 6 wounded were shot by the Russians, although there were agreements to exchange them with the AFU. I wonder if the UN will react at all to the fact that the Russians are constantly shooting prisoners.
I stopped collecting news for this post on Sunday. That news started coming out on Monday. There's a delay between the writing and the posting.
If the UN and International Court of Justice and any other organization condemns the multiple documented execution of prisioners by Russia what impact do you expect it will have on the behavior of the Russian military?
Perhaps Russia will get less help from countries that help circumvent sanctions, and perhaps Russia will treat at least the captured Ukrainians better.
If the UN, the International Court of Justice and any other organisation condemns the numerous documented executions of prisoners by Russia, the image of a terrorist country in the world will be formed. But even this is not the case, the bombing of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station, the mass murder of civilians, the murder of POWs in Yelenovka, the abuse of POWs (in the form of cutting off heads and castration). When Chechens abused prisoners, they were terrorists, militants, so how do Russians differ from Chechen militants. Russia should be labelled as a murderer.
Yes, this is in the mainstream media as of today. No mention on Deep State Map, though. We shall wait and see. On the other hand, maybe the new commanders of ZSU have a different strategy.
Oh how I wish Mike Johnson and fellow MAGA republicans would spend a few minutes and digest this horrific summary. Unfortunately that’s not going to happen. Blood is on their hands.
That faction doesn't care about the US influence and engagement in the world. They sympathize with Russia and have close ties with Orban. Tell me if you think they are concerned about someone else's blood: https://twitter.com/biannagolodryga/status/1758516090718552482
Yes, they Trump, Orban, Fico, ... sympathize with Putin not because they want to be obey Putin, but they want to be dictators like him - rule forever and without limits in their countries. Putin helps them with Russian propaganda channels and disinformation machine. That's one of the main reason they support him.
Thanks for the overview
Great write up Don. Appreciate the breakdown of the withdrawal and the extreme pressure the Ukrainians were under. Even elite units like the 3rd Assault would really have a hard time holding on if there’s no artillery support to be had… not counting the numerical superiority of the Russians and disregard for losses.
You're exactly right. Without artillery, no one could hold the city. There was talk about them counter-attacking but that may have been part of the deception plan for the withdrawal.
Great review! Very instructive. Thank you, Don
Спасибо за работу
A thousand thanks for this detailled survey of the battle. Warm thoughts.
Ooh, Painful reading.
Indeed
Thanks Don.
The shortage of ammo is well known but I still think that ZSU could have either prepared more shells for the withdrawal or started it earlier when it has better positions.
Ukraine brought a large stockpile of shells for the 120mm mortars of the 3rd Brigade. That stockpile was expended. They brought a large number of drones and the drone teams of all the brigades went with little sleep last week. As useful as drones are, they are not artillery.
I was reading about a WW2 German commander that was involved in the planning and execution of numerous withdrawals during the war and his criticism of the German high command is that they didn't initiate the withdrawals until the situation had deteriorated. This is a common problem, knowing the right time to withdraw.
Wrong tactics by both sides, no camouflage being used, no night fighting or attacks. Seems to be daylight fighting only, come to Africa and both will get their ass kicked!
The sky is usually cloudy ("The leaden skies of Sarmatia" as ancient Romans used to say) and everything is mined. Whoever walks in darkness is a prey to snipers and drones with thermal sights.
BTW, Wagners are in Africa for many years. It seems that it is they who enjoy "kicking" asses.
And yet I reported that Russia did attack at night and Ukraine has done so in the past, as well. There is a shortage of thermal and low light vision devices but those that have them are deadly to those operating at night without them. Much of the Ukrainian withdrawals occurred at night. At Zenit, a daylight withdrawal would have been suicide. The night time withdrawal was merely deadly.
Like Denys says, the Wagner successor groups are operating in several countries in Africa and dominating on behalf of the governments in brutal fashion as they export lumber and minerals as part of their payment. Ukraine special forces are also in Sudan and they are punishing the Russian forces.
Thanks a lot for a good overview and summary of the whole situation. I guess that the maps shown here are based on DeepState maps and I think it would be reasonable to credit them (sorry if my missed it somewhere). I think it's also important to credit/link map sources as this allows others to check them out themselves.
I absolutely rely on DeepState, Google Maps and Andrew Perpetua's maps. Every once in a while I mention it. I also use Military Land as they track unit locations in a general way.
Just would like to clarify that I absolutely didn't mean to offend and apologies for missing your previous references. Just felt like it was missing in this article.
Once again many thanks for your extremely great work. I am more than sure that whole community appreciates it immensely.
No, I took the comments as you meant them. It was missing in this article and others. I'm all for other people using those great tools to find out information.
Awesome review
Quite sad reading. Wish that the ZSU had much more ammunition and a GBAD system to protect Avdiivka from the Sukhois attacking in the past two weeks (at least).
The "sudden" collapse of the defence reminds me of the expression (from a Hemingway story) "Gradually, then suddenly"
(of course, history is not written with "ifs" and "buts")
The article does not mention that at the Zenit position, the remaining 6 wounded were shot by the Russians, although there were agreements to exchange them with the AFU. I wonder if the UN will react at all to the fact that the Russians are constantly shooting prisoners.
Do you still have expectations from the UN?
I stopped collecting news for this post on Sunday. That news started coming out on Monday. There's a delay between the writing and the posting.
If the UN and International Court of Justice and any other organization condemns the multiple documented execution of prisioners by Russia what impact do you expect it will have on the behavior of the Russian military?
Perhaps Russia will get less help from countries that help circumvent sanctions, and perhaps Russia will treat at least the captured Ukrainians better.
If the UN, the International Court of Justice and any other organisation condemns the numerous documented executions of prisoners by Russia, the image of a terrorist country in the world will be formed. But even this is not the case, the bombing of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station, the mass murder of civilians, the murder of POWs in Yelenovka, the abuse of POWs (in the form of cutting off heads and castration). When Chechens abused prisoners, they were terrorists, militants, so how do Russians differ from Chechen militants. Russia should be labelled as a murderer.
If the UN or ICJ doesn't have consequences Russia or other countries care about then they won't change their behavior.
Russia is a murderous state that only responds to power.
Russian officials report that they captured and secured Krynky https://meduza.io/news/2024/02/20/shoygu-dolozhil-putinu-o-zachistke-sela-krynki-kotoroe-stavit-tochku-v-ukrainskom-kontrnastuplenii-v-vsu-eto-zayavlenie-ne-kommentirovali
Yes, this is in the mainstream media as of today. No mention on Deep State Map, though. We shall wait and see. On the other hand, maybe the new commanders of ZSU have a different strategy.
Milbloggers state that Krynky were not captured (yet) https://t.me/grey_zone/22040
Oh how I wish Mike Johnson and fellow MAGA republicans would spend a few minutes and digest this horrific summary. Unfortunately that’s not going to happen. Blood is on their hands.
They don't care. They care only about power in the Washington, D.C. scene.
That faction doesn't care about the US influence and engagement in the world. They sympathize with Russia and have close ties with Orban. Tell me if you think they are concerned about someone else's blood: https://twitter.com/biannagolodryga/status/1758516090718552482
Yes, they Trump, Orban, Fico, ... sympathize with Putin not because they want to be obey Putin, but they want to be dictators like him - rule forever and without limits in their countries. Putin helps them with Russian propaganda channels and disinformation machine. That's one of the main reason they support him.
Thanks for that informative report Don always like your reports
Excellent structures write up! Many thanks!