Avidiivka: Don's Review

Hello everybody!

For today, Don has prepared his review of factors influencing the flow of the final phase of battle of Avidiivka, and that at operational- and tactical levels. Means: what did matter in regards of supplies, command, and equipment.

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The lack of artillery ammunition impacts every aspect of this war. If Ukraine had sufficient ammo the ZSU would be able to conduct an offensive and would never have to stop. A little less and they’d be able to successfully defend Avdiivka. A bit less than that, they probably wouldn’t be able to defend Avdiivka in the long run, but it would take Russia a lot longer and it would cost them even more casualties than it already has. Ukrainians would also be able to lay down a heavy enough barrage to cover their withdrawal and reduce their casualties.

However, Ukrainians do not have that much ammo, so they have to make do with what they do have.

It is difficult for Russia to attack over wide open spaces. Drones, and artillery - if Ukraine can spare it - can reduce their forces well before they reach ZSU’s defence lines. Indeed, the mass of Russian assaults is failing because the number of troops that survived just approaching Ukrainian positions is not sufficient to start digging own positions. Even when they do manage to take one or another position, they are often too few to hold this in the face of an Ukrainian counterattack, or they are too far away but to be reinforced on time, or to receive a re-supply on time.

These were the principal factors why Russia was unable to encircle Avdiivka for years, and why did it suffer as massive losses while trying to do so.

Russia changed its approach and started to attack the city directly - even in an entirely different fashion. A tunnel allowed them to cross the open ground and gain a foothold in the industrial park. They eventually gained control of the entire park but stalled after that.

After taking Marinka, Russia transferred a drone unit that specialized in destroying defensive positions to Avdiivka. They went to work on the dachas and Russia was able to capture the facility that treated the waste water from the coke plant, but the battle lines were stable for a couple weeks after that.

The next important development occurred south of the town. Small teams of 6-8 Russian Spetsnaz were infiltrated into a southern neighborhood of the town. This was confusing because none of Ukraine’s defensive lines were breached. The teams were hunted down and destroyed but: they proved to be only a trial run. The Russians have discovered a 2,000-meters long sewer pipe that provided an exit behind Ukraine’s defensive line. Their next effort was a 150 man assault through the sewer. Once out of that pipe, the Russians took the restaurant to the south and moved into the neighborhood to the north. They also tried to reinforce them with armored vehicles but Ukrainian drones knocked them out. Without overland access, the Russians had to rely on resupply through the 2 km sewer. Without a steady supply of replacements, the Russians took shelter in the residential houses while drones dropped anti-tank mines on them from drones and vehicles blasted the houses, with three streets of houses burning down. The Ukrainians were able to recapture the restaurant but with Russian artillery, drones and bombs they were unable to hold onto it. When the restaurant fell into Russian hands again they never relinquished it again.

While the southern threat was contained but not eliminated, there was a breakthrough in the north. Russia had been held up by attacking on a narrow front. They already had a foothold on the northern end of the dachas and had trouble pushing south. They attacked at night, which eliminated all Ukrainian drones that lacked the thermal or low-light optics, and the Russians later claimed they were aided by cloaks that reduced their thermal signature, something Ukraine is also producing.

At about this time, two fresh battalions from the 3rd Assault Brigade assumed control over some of Avidiivka’s defenses. The 110th Brigade, which had defended the city for so long, had one mission left, and that was to coordinate with the 3rd Brigade to get as many of its troops out as possible.

Once they started the assault, Russian commanders kept pouring troops into the dachas, which was a mixture of homes and trees. Ukraine reported that Russia would launch a new assault every 20 minutes. This steady stream of troops made it difficult for Ukraine to deal with casualties and ammo resupply. Drone-teams tried to make up for the absence of artillery, operating with little to no sleep. They were unable to stop the Russians and the overwhelmed Ukrainian troops fell back over two kilometers into the town. Small teams of Russians followed them, spilling into Avidiivka: counterattacks by the 3rd Assault Brigade captured a few of the disorganized and isolated soldiers, but this was not enough: a steady stream of Russians continued and they have foudn plentiful cover in all the vacant homes.

With the Russians controlling the dachas, the main supply route to the Ukrainian defenders located east of the wastewater plant was cut off: they were forced to withdraw towards south-east. Having anticipated this possibility, the fields were already mined and the Ukrainians mined the tree-lines, too, to slow down the Russians following behind them.

With all the action, there was a shortage of videos, likely because operators were too busy to record, too busy to upload, or they possibly became a casualty. There are reports of Ukraine pushing back Russian troops and of Ukrainian troops being cut off and having to fight their way clear as new groups of Russian troops appeared behind them. There are reports and videos of Russian air force dropping 40-80 glide bombs a day, and a report of a TOS-1 thermobaric artillery strike in the center of the Aviddivka, but I have not found and thus have not seen the video. There are also reports that air and artillery strikes landed on some Russian troops, as well. Given the chaotic nature of the fight and Russia’s intent to push forward at all cost, this is not surprising.

Only two battalions of the 3rd Assault Brigade were committed to the battle. Supporting them was the 225 Independent Assault Battalion, the special forces Timur Group, and the Russian Volunteer Corps. This was a total of five manoeuvre battalions: equivalent to a full brigade. Their task was to hold positions in the western half of the town so all the elements of the 110th Brigade and other supporting units could withdraw through them. The units from in- and around the filtration plant were supposed to withdraw first because they had the furthest to go and there were more of them. Zenit was to withdraw next because there were fewer of them and if Russia advanced through Zenit and to the north they could place the withdrawal route under their fire control.

Unfortunately for the Zenit garrison, Russian forces out of Opytne were pushing along two tree-lines to the west of them. To make matters worse, Russian forces from the Restaurant area were pushing into a block of houses and trees that was their only withdrawal route with cover. The gap was only 900 meters wide and they had to travel 1500 meters to get to it. One group of 13 tried to break out and 11 of them were killed, as the entire route was covered with machine gun, mortar and artillery fire. There were six wounded that could not walk out and the command told them they could not send a vehicle for them. The remaining soldiers had to leave them for the Russians as they made their way to freedom.

Ukraine says Russia was suffering 660 casualties a day at the peak of the fighting.

At this point, it is possible to determine which side controlled a specific point at a specific time - and that primarily based on video evidence - but: with the withdrawal of so many Ukrainians from their defensive positions many unit movements are poorly documented.

The main pressure was still the ‘pipeline’ of the Russian manpower moving through the dachas. Russia started the offensive with 40,000 men but Ukraine says they moved other units in from Kupiansk and other areas and have 50,000 men to Ukraine’s 8,000 men; that in the following street battles the Russians might have had a local superiority of 20:1, allowing them to move through gaps in Ukraine’s ad hoc defenses or to simply overwhelm them. A company command post of the 3rd Assault is known to have been overrun and other units had to fight their way back to friendly lines. Not all Ukrainians got out of the city. Some were killed, wounded or captured, but Ukraine doesn’t reveal its own losses.

It is difficult enough to withdraw from the enemy a short distance - even if friendly troops support you with their fire. It is much harder when you are the last unit and you have to cross at least 1600 meters before the next tree line might provide some cover, drones are patrolling, artillery is pounding the road, and direct fire is coming at you from 180 or more degrees. This is the gauntlet the last Ukrainian troops had to run when leaving the town. It would have been useful if Ukraine had plenty of artillery to suppress Russian troops but I available reports are indicating that nothing was available. Indeed, even the stocks of 120mm mortar bombs brought in by the 3rd Assault Brigade were exhausted by the evening of 16 February: mortar-crews were left without a choice but to shell the Russians with smoke rounds, in hope they might distract them, or at least block their vision that way.

The troops evacuating the coke plant had it easier because they could quickly drive through the facility and the structures would provide them cover and concealment from anything but drones.

Some have wondered why Ukraine didn’t hold on to such a formidable structure: the reason is its location. To the east, it was separated from Russian locations by 50-150 meters. To the south, Russians were only 30 meters away. This meant a Russian assault could reach Ukrainian defensive positions after crossing small distances: reinforcements and resupply could be fairly quick for any assault units that made progress. Russia could sustain the attack fairly easily. For the Ukrainians, though, they had to bring their supplies, replacements and evacuate their wounded across 2600 meters that could be interdicted by Russian drones and artillery. It was simply too close to the Russians and too far away from other Ukrainians.

Further south… When Russia took Marinka they continued to push west. They’re currently making a strong effort to take Novomykhailivka. If they advance 10-15 km they might push the Ukrainian artillery with conventional shells out of range of the railroad. A 15-20 km advance might begin to threaten the sustainability of the strongpoint at Vuhledar. Any push that deep needs to be on a broad front. Whether Avdiivka will be part of that push remains to be seen.

Now the videos…

On December 29, Zelensky stood by a sign on a road leading into Avdiivka.

A Ukrainian APC is shelled as it leaves Avdiivka by the same road and sign that provided a backdrop for Zelensky…

https://twitter.com/StrategickeM/status/1758439507332862111

Now the Russians are flying their flag from the sign…

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status/1758441276045660530

The city park is under Russian control…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1758557082104602722

Russians fall to Ukrainian snipers…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1758610564555645266

The Ukrainian 110th Brigade attacks a Russian tank until it’s destroyed…

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1758573208272523628

A little over a week ago by the restaurant, the 110th destroyed two Russian tanks…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1756810097076936858

To reach the restaurant, Russians had to cross a 1300 meter open field. A Russian soldier called it a process of natural selection by Ukrainian drones…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1756811244428800426

Just north of the coke plant, Bradley fires on the railroad treeline…

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1756740381566480388

There were reports of Russian groups of over 50 soldiers attacking an objective…

https://twitter.com/NHunter007/status/1758239893547786490

Russian vehicles were also used in assaults…

https://twitter.com/small10space/status/1758397892790784399

After all the bombs and artillery shells, this is one view inside the coke plant…

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1758644390107705605

Looking south to the coke plant, thermite shells ignite the fuel storage tanks at the plant and the thick, toxic smoke spreads across the city. At 0:17 you see a narrow ribbon of water with bridges over it and homes on each side. It is here, on both sides of the water, that Russia broke through to Avdiivka and began the end phase of the battle…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1758423489201999933

Another view inside the coke plant under bombardment…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1758452643544850493

At the southern end of the coke plant, a Ukrainian MaxxPro comes under mortar fire…

https://twitter.com/GloOouD/status/1757462781807239313

This is the hospital on the west side of the city after a bomb hit it…

https://twitter.com/small10space/status/1757723576696795438

The Russians reportedly used thermal cloaks to hide from thermal cameras that were tracking their movements north of the dachas…https://www.eurasiantimes.com/russia-brings-invisibility-suit-to-ukraine-war-will-protect-soldiers-from-thermal-imaging-systems/

I’m always amazed at the wide use of headlights and flashlights so close to the front lines. In this case, they appear to be quite some distance from Avdiivka, so the threat is reduced, but it’s still strange to me. The point of this video, though, is that there isn’t any thunderstorms over Avdiivka, just Russian artillery bombardments…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1758625746598121788

The 3rd Assault Brigade in the coke plant…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1758594616327016801

MEDICALLY GRAPHIC: A 3rd Assault Brigade aid station in action…

https://twitter.com/ukrpravda_news/status/1758805194018574603

The 3rd Assault Brigade soldiers exit the coke plan and moves towards Avdiivka under shell fire…

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1758861268620841236

Troops of the 3rd Brigade take over a defensive position by the train station, allowing others to evacuate. The Dutch M113 is hit by a drone but continues to move. The ramp is lowered to aid in clearing the smoke and the door in the ramp is opened from being drug in the mud…

https://twitter.com/Militarylandnet/status/1758877843344212308

Another video from the 3rd Assault Brigade as they try to cover the withdrawal. At the end, they skirt a bomb crater…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1759174735311614413

The 3rd Assault Brigade said they took responsibility for the city’s defenses on February 4th. At that point the 110th Brigade, who had defended the city for years, had one mission: Withdraw in a way to save as many soldiers as possible…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1758416603132088490

A Bradley from the 47th firing both cannon and TOW anti-tank missiles…

https://twitter.com/zeeginttas/status/1757756736994201628

Ukrainian, western and Russian sources generally agree that the Russians suffered at least 20,000 killed and 60,000 wounded at Bakhmut. An American volunteer platoon leader in Chosen Company, a special unit attached to the 59th Brigade, believes that Russian total casualties would be higher in Bakhmut but their KIA’s (200’s) were higher in Avdiivka. Here, he discusses his experiences on the front line…

https://twitter.com/IhateTrenches/status/1758825982922825728

He also explains that his unit is being detached from the 59th Brigade and being sent somewhere else. He accompanies it with an older video of a small unit engagement to clear trenches…

https://twitter.com/IhateTrenches/status/1757519911469859268

A Russian soldier walks through his rear area west of Krasnohorivka, which was within a couple of kilometers of the front line before the Russian offensive started. There are a lot of Russian bodies. Although none are graphic, use your own judgment before viewing…

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/1757919262889685150

The city had 30,000 people before the war, even after the 2014 invasion. By last June there was less than 2,000, and in the final assault 900 were living and dying in basements before the living were evacuated…https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/18/world/europe/ukraine-russia-avdiivka.html?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20240218&instance_id=115475&nl=the-morning&regi_id=139486627&segment_id=158515&te=1&user_id=130c8cdcea44369e69823bf647237422

Looking from west to east, the church of St. Mary Magdalene is in the foreground of southern Avdiivka as smoke rises from two Russian bombs…

https://twitter.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1758429333209628970

Looking from east to west, you can see the church of St. Mary Magdalene is in the center of the frame at 0:00…

https://twitter.com/jana_skhidna/status/1758524204159230405

The Russians raise their flag at Zenit. At 1:26, the drone camera pulls back and you can see how isolated this position has been since 2014…

https://twitter.com/Vuk02577707/status/1758197133277077999

Russia raises its flag over the coke plant…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1758821189814812814

Zelensky talked with Biden and Biden acknowledges that reduced US aid directly contributed to the loss of Avdiivka…

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/1758966865001435275