100 Comments

Middle East politics seems to be really complicated...

Like an old Soviet movie saying goes: "East is a delicate matter".

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Middle Eastern politics?

Oh, no, it isn't. Western politics vis-a-vis the Middle East - is nothing but a system of most absurd, idiotic, and criminal failures. For 100+ years, meanwhile.

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Hello. Thank you. What a fantastic read. You should have a weekly Zeitungskolumne. As Georg Sesslen writes : "Eine Kolumne (...) ist jedenfalls in einem Zeitungsumfeld ein Relikt des Unberechenbaren und Offenen. Dementsprechend mit Risiken und Nebenwirkungen behaftet:" Have a good day and I cannot wait to read more.

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Thanks Mr for explaning this entelechy

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Thanks for this enlightening updates. Because are no news in the past weeks, you may say clearly everything is fine, all the world are Ok... whatever.

Humm, Baluchis. Someone may had read a little bit about them in Stanley’s African exploitations, err, explorations, you know.

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My pleasure.

(Just a hint: Baluchis are... well, in southern Pakistan, not in Africa.)

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Yes. But in the XIX century, the sultan of Zanzibar and, after that, the so called “Congo Arabs” enlisted Baloochis (another -de-form of the name) as bodyguards and caravan escorts. It was a well payed position, because plenty of people from Oman, Yemen... signed as “Baluchi matchlockmen” almost to the turn of the century.

These “Pakistani” folk, as far from Africa as Europeans, you may see...

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Ah, gosh: Zanzibar! Yes, that's right! Thanks for reminder!

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You’re welcome! And keep the work!

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Cheez what a f***g mess.. Now I really underdtand why you have to study severak years in the Uni for geopolitics..🤣

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You don't have to study for years. You just have to understand what tribalism, greed and survival instinct are, inform yourself about a certain culture and try to see things from their perspective. Oh, and some common sense is needed.

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But is common sende common?

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Oh let me offer you a better advice: instead of spending years on some university, learn to find out where and whom to ask the 'right questions'.

Helps much more than having to learn mathematic formulas for translation and international diplomacy... 😉

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Well, that is why I bookmarked this site early on🤣

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Second that. Took me getting halfway through a doctoral program to realize that most Americans with PhDs are just esteemed members of fancy book clubs.

Science really does advance over the corpses of scientists. And advances come too late to stop the morons from repeating the mistakes of the past all while insisting that they're the smartest people who have ever lived, *Jake Sullivan*

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Good you never met any Austrians with Mag., Dr. or Prof. titles...

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I've chatted with a few... one of several reasons I decided to drop academia altogether. Isn't what they say on the tin anywhere. And I say that as someone who was able to publish my masters-level work in a respected journal.

Anyone who hopes to have real impact is better served writing directly for the public anyway. Good science is good science, doesn't need professor approval.

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Come on, I am not that bad and I got two...

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Спасибо, Том.

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Tom you are a romantic.

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Not only a romantic, but a naive idealist too.

...and working for 50+ intelligence services around the world...

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But do they pay well these fifty?

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Not really. You see, I can barely afford my butler; my cook is poor; my gardener too; my private biz-jet is not gold-plated, and two of my six yachts in Monte Carlo are anchored for months and in need of repairs... ;-)

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A Shame that, but take on two more...

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Thanks Tom, interesting read and as always I have learnt something new. I do have some questions though:

1. Why do you appear to believe that morality has anything to do with international politics?

2. Why do you believe that morality should have any place in international politics?

3. Why do you think all politicians must be either evil or corrupt (or both), instead of many being simply stupid and incompetent?

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1.) Because we can't demand other countries to respect human rights and international laws and regulations which we (the West) have imposed upon everybody (including ourselves), if we do not respect them.

2.) For reasons explained under No. 1 and because if we do not respect laws and regulations, and there are no consequences for such behaviour, then you or me can kill anybody we do not like, on the spot, whenever we want to do so - and have the right to expect no punishment for a murder.

3.) Because every single politician I've run into in my life - and this is ranging from the major or any village or city district, up to several presidents of different republics - was corrupt.

And that is so because politics is meanwhile not even the game of compromises, but of nepotism, patronage, and pocketing, and because power corrupts. Should you still have any doubts, ask anybody who ever had power. Especially in private (and after 2-3 shots of whiskey or vodka).

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Thanks!

1, 2) You are mistaking international relations with morality. No law/agreement has ever been internationally agreed upon, due to it being moral. Rules of war, as known in the West, were not agreed upon due to morals, though they may have been sold that way publicly, but because they are simply pragmatic. Similarly, the international rules-based order we have today, is not a result of morality, but self-interest.

You are saying that not respecting laws and regulations is immoral. That is irrelevant and no government should care. What is relevant, is that ignoring these laws and regulations is against our interests. That is everything that our governments should care about. I sense a vibe from you, that no behaviour can be both moral and in self-interest, as if self-interest automatically made a "good" decision immoral. That is a twisted and destructive way of looking at life.

Yes, state to state, we can kill many that we don't like and expect no punishment for it. As long as it is in a state's interest and is powerful enough to protect itself from the blowback. You should not mix personal behaviour and domestic criminal law with international relations.

3) It's not that I particularly disagree, I just think that if a definition encompasses everything, then it is a poor definition. Everyone in any decision making capacity, in any environment, could be called corrupt by your standard. That is a very binary and, frankly, incorrect view. Finally, one can be corrupt and yet still make good decisions for his/her country, those things have never been mutually exclusive.

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No. I'm not talking about morality.

I say that disrespect for international laws is against the law.

And persistent violation of law without consequences = lawlessness.

...which results in a situation where we (the West), after all of our own violations of international laws, without any kind of consquences, cannot expect anybody else to respect the same laws.

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In that case, we are in full agreement.

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Well, regarding item #3 - it is totally possible to be corrupt and incompetent at the same time.

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Indeed, that's the rule.

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Loving the map Tom....crystal clear. To quote the old song “the music goes round and round, whoawhohwowoh and it comes out here...”

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It feels like the drums of war are banging louder, I hope the world does not explode

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The real reason the USA blindly supports Israel in a nutshell:

Backing Israel is *essential* to the deliberately cultivated postwar myth that the USA saved the world single-handedly from evil in WW2. Problem with the narrative is that facts show most American's didn't care about Hitler's treatment of Jews or any other group the Nazis decided was subhuman that week. And though US leaders knew about the death camps, they were happy to let the Nazis waste resources on them.

Never mind reality: America is a nation built on marketing. What you believe is truth, and if someone questions you, they're on Team Bad. Even if the Nazis were only imitating what the USA did to "win the west" from those scary natives, transforming the Slavic, Jewish, Roma, and dozens of other peoples into their own indigenous victims.

Until about 1970 or so WW2 was, in the American memory, all about vengeance for Pearl Harbor with the country only reluctantly getting involved in Europe's wars again to put down Hitler, a guy plenty of Americans were fans of throughout the 1930s. Then, after Vietnam, as the nationalist myths used to justify that idiotic intervention were falling apart, the military-industrial-media complex needed a new reason for the USA to meddle all across the world, especially in the oil-rich Middle East which had become even more important as US oil reserves were depleted.

Not because direct control is required, just kinetic influence. But to sustain US involvement in the Middle East it needed a somewhat reliable ally, and thanks to the prominence many Jewish-American Zionists in US political circles (no one cared about Israel killing US sailors aboard the *Liberty*) Israel became it. But as its behavior became more brutal year after year, that posed uncomfortable questions for America's foreign policy mandarins - as it still does today.

So began the onslaught of allegations of anti-Semitism leveled against anyone who argues for treating Israel like any other country - even though plenty of non-Zionist Jews want the same. The American media began to identify the Holocaust as the reason the US had to fight in WW2, despite Americans in the 1930s absolutely disagreeing, thus connecting Israel's very existence to the war and, perversely, the brutal and often self-destructive way the Allies chose to fight it.

To see Israel claiming that Gaza is the new Dresden and the annihilation of both is justified because that's what the USA did in WW2 completes the circle. America is good and all enemies are evil and Israel is good because the Holocaust was bad and the USA saved everyone.

Hence the majority of my public school education about WW2 literally being a screening of Schindler's List. That's all Americans need to know about the nightmare. Us good, them bad, with us and them defined by powerful people who never face accountability despite this being necessary for democracy to work.

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With other words: the West has bad conscience about the Holocaust, thus it's on Arabs to pay for that.

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Palestinans pay for that, not all Arabs. This pan-Arabism is the same bullshit like Russian pan-Slavism - it's just an excuse when one Arab speaking nation wants to rule other Arab speaking nation. And Palestians are victims of it, too. Have you see any intention of those countries attacking Israel in 1948, 1973 to create a Palestinian state? Nope, they just hoped to occupy Palestina by themself. And that's the other side of Palestinian tragedy.

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So, when Western-imposed and (at least) -supported dictatorships rule over the Arabs, then they're enjoying that, and not paying for the (West's) Holocaust?

BTW, who attacked _Israel_ in 1973? Was it Mars- or Alpha Centauri-people...?

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Or maybe Cubans? Do Cubans live in Egypt or is Cuba full of Arabs? And who live in Austria - Germans or kangaroos?

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Point is: in 1973, nobody attacked 'Israel'. Egypt and Syria attacked Israeli forces on their turf captured by Israel in 1967.

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Palestinians mostly. The Saudis dosent pay much for Europas bad conscience. But otherwise totally agree.

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It was not only Americans who didn't care about Hitler's treatment of Jews. Not a single country in Europe (and Middle East) did care about it. Nobody cared. Many supported it.

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Thank you. When I try to link Russia supporters back to the similarities of Russia's invasion with WWII and Nazi Germany, they say 'but that was different because x, y, z'. No it wasn't. It was different because our history books rewrote it as such. No conflict is black and white, but it is harder to find one more light and dark grey than the invasion of Ukraine. Also, we often fail to recall that the USA is acting now like it did before Pearl Harbour. Just enough support, just in time. Its behaviour now is consistent with its behaviour before being kicked in the face by Japan, something that is not going to happen this time. But I believe ultimately a tipping point in Europe will be reached when people feel too encroached upon, and then Russia will be in trouble, if not before that.

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I can best describe the moral difference between Putin and Netanyahu by saying that Netanyahu is destined for a circle of Hell one to two floors above Putin. I agree with those that say that Bibi Netanyahu is the worst Jewish leader in almost 1900 years.

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Aha, you are an expert in what 'Muslim street' thinks and it's pity that these poor Muslims are lead by crooked dictators corrupted by West. But you have forgotten Iran street voice: https://www.tiktok.com/@dailymailsport/video/7287936284696399136 Maybe it is so, because they government is not corrupted by West, that Iranians git the f*k about Palestina and Jemen. They do not want these distant wars they government spent money for. They want good jobs instead, travel to New York, London, Paris, Vienna, play music, ... And 'Iranian street' still remembers Palestinian support to Iraq during Iran - Iraq war. Palestinians loved Sadam so much, that Palestinians refugees in Kuwait welcomed him when he invaded their new home - really good way to make friends.

I really hate these talks what 'street' thinks. That's what dictators like. There are 2.18 billion Muslims in the world and they have 2.18 billion voices and opinions. Many of them support Palestinians and many do not care - not because of their dictators or the evil West, but because they just do not care.

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You've badly mistaken something: I'm no expert in anything. On the contrary: I'm absolutely clueless about all the topics I'm covering.

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1. gaza numbers is pure imagination by hamas

2. plenty of international organizations could verify it, but hamas wouldn't cooperate

3. there is no way to know gaza civilian from gaza terrorist

comparing that to Ukraine is simply unprofessional:

1. in Mariupol alone death toll is estimated at 100k, purely from satelite imagery

2. vast territories are occupied with no access for international organizations or Ukrainians

3. most of Ukraine soldiers were civilians just a year or two ago, why don't they deserve a mention?

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A.1.) Aha.

A.2.) Like Israel is cooperating with the ICJ, thanks to German intervention?

A.3.) Absolutely no way. Besides, who cares? They're all terrorists.

B.1.) Yup, such estimates are the ultimate reliability. BTW, earlier today, have had a chat with somebody who is still there: they've concluded that Ukraine can't liberate the place and thus decided to accept the Russian citizenship and everything else. Tomorrow, I'll tell them that satellites counted them as dead.

B.2.) Ah, that's something special? The Gaza Strip is no wast territory, and the Zionists still wouldn't let any international organisations in. Not even emergency aid.

B.3.) And? All of Hamas are civilians. Nominally at least, not one is a member of any kind of regular armed forces. And all are branded as terrorists. So, why don't they deserve... and what kind of mention?

Now come on and teach me more, so I can take care about such issues. You see: because you've missed just about 99% of my reporting about Ukraine, I've never mentioned any Ukrainian troops at all. Means: I must improve myself... :rolleyes:

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i can't really get through all the sarcasm, but this seems like an honest opinion - "Nominally at least, not one is a member of any kind of regular armed forces"

so an honest question, how would you suggest separating hamas members from civilians?

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The satellite images of graveyards in Mariupol showed ar least 20.000 new graves. This is only the ones which were easily visible, because they were on new land. A lot of people were buried just outside the houses, in city parks and on the playgrounds. Many were buried under collapsed buildings and stayed there. Russians didn't bother to digging them out, just flattened the ground. Many bodies were just cremated by Russians to hide the death toll. There are plenty rapports about that. Nobody knows the exact number, and nobody probably ever will. Maybe the 100.000 is overestimate, maybe not.

You always pretend to know a lot about the subject when writing about it. So, please study it before making the claim.

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Except you claim you can read minds, I do not know why do you say that I 'pretend'.

Because I always say when I do not know. And, in this case, and based on absolutely reliable satellite intelligence in your possession, you obviously know so much more than I do. I'm not even trying to deny that...

So, no idea why are you complaining....?

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It seems like I do know more about this subject then you.

If you have another opinion, please come with some information and arguments, not some crap like from insulted teenager.

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Oh no, please: there is no way I can know anything more than you do. I bow in awe to your satellite-intelligence-supported, superior knowledge.

Just no idea why are you then wasting your precious time to read my blog and ask me questions of the kind you do. Thus, asking for a friend.

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100k is definitely underestimate (for the entire Ukraine).

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We were talking about Mariupol only (I guess).

Nobody really knows the real number, probably somewhere between 20 and 100 thousands. The same situation as in Grozny. Somebody claims 30.000, others say 300.000. Unfortunately, we'll probably never find out.

We can try asking Hamas though, they always know the exact numbers of children killed right away, so I guess they have a very reliable system for that.

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Regarding your first two points - In previous conflicts the casualty figures provided by Hamas were later proven to be fairly accurate. The various human rights orgs have asserted that the casualty figures appear commensurate with the scale and intensity of the conflict, how it compares to previous conflicts, and Israel's, uhh, combat history and past behavior.

Also, if, as you say, "there is no way to know gaza civilian from gaza terrorist" then that seems to me even more reason to use a delicate hand and deal with this politically and/or using police/intelligence work with surgical special forces operations. You seem to be saying, "well, we can't distinguish the fighters from civilians so let's just level the city and kill them all." Not really the argument I'd be using if I were you. It makes you seem like a rabid genocidal maniac who views all Palestinians as sub-humans...

Finally, let's see your source for 100K civilian deaths in Mariupol. I think the UN claimed a bit over 10k, and that was for all of Ukraine. And please explain how one can determine casualty figures from satellite imagery??? Very bizarre thing to say, tbh.

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Just one of the examples and with explanations

https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-erasing-mariupol-methodology-f74b28016b8dea4b82811655f14931f2

There are many other mass graves, where people were just buried in long trenches. It's not difficult to find this information on internet. I can read both ukrainian and russian, so I also have some other sources and interviews with survivors.

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Ctrl+F "civilian". Hmm, strange, that article doesn't even mention the word civilian. Remember, we are talking about CIVILIAN DEATHS. Linking to an article that says that cemeteries around Mariupol drastically increased doesn't prove much of anything unless you went there to determine which ones were civilians and which ones were soldiers - remember those guys? They tend to die a lot in war. I would wager a great many of them are DPR soldiers in particular, and I'm sure in a different discussion about, say, how badly the Russians/DPR still got mauled in Mariupol despite being victorious, you would agree with me.

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Sure, they were all soldiers...

You know, it’s not that difficult to type “graveyards Mariupol” on Google and find a lot of information about it.

You don’t even need to read Ukrainian sites and blogs, it’s all there, in English, German, French and so on.

Or you can use a lot of time to invent theories that support your point of view.

Here what I found in 2 minutes, with text and images, and interviews with real people (civilians)

https://www.rferl.org/a/mariupol-cemetery-new-graves/32124120.html

https://www.thedailybeast.com/gardens-are-now-graveyards-in-mariupol-as-russia-amps-up-war

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/15/ukraine-1400-graves-dug-at-mariupol-cemetery-since-mid-may-images-suggest

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-63536564

I’ve read hundreds of articles and reports on that subject back in 2022, I’ve even seen russian videos and interviews with russian soldiers describing how they were ordered to shoot without any concern about civilians (because all the people left in the city were Ukrainian nazi, they’ve been told).

We can discuss the numbers of casualties, but I feel like crying and screaming when you suggest that they were soldiers KIA.

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i won't talk about hamas - it's a terrorist organization which must be destroyed, period

re mariupol - there is plenty of new mass graves https://twitter.com/United24media/status/1748696629454995708 since previous UN claim

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And you are able to determine these graves are all civilians how exactly? I would love to know your method? Know the gravedigger? Tell me, can you think of any other types of people that are not civilians who die quite a lot--the most, even--in war?

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in no way i can, no one can - that's exactly why i'm saying comparing gaza and Ukraine is unprofessional

and trusting numbers coming from terrorist organization is either dumb or biased

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Destroy a terrorist organization. Ok. How do you go about it then? Bombing everybody in the same area? Or removing everyone in the neighbouring area their homes? Or? I have no objection to the destruction of Hamas. But it seems that after some months of fighting there has not been any significant military victory and the job will take more months. And more deaths. Civilian at that. Regarding Numbers the Hamas numbers are of course not reliable, but if you prefer IDF their estimate in early December was 15000. It may have increased since then. https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-officials-15000-likely-killed-in-gaza-since-start-of-war-5000-of-them-are-hamas/

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curiously, you won't find anything about that "unnamed official" or his "claim" on AP or AFP

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If we stick to facts then:

Confirmed number of civilian death after 2 years in Ukraine is roughly 20,000 (11,000 being from Mariupol siege). It can be checked on Wikipedia. It's not a disputed number.

Gaza death toll is 23,000.

What I found strange is that Tom refers to 23,000 as "several times higher".

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Didn't happen, much to many Zionist's chagrin. It's old propaganda too, btw. The new thing is claiming all the women hostages were/are being raped, despite there also being no evidence or victim testimonies to corroborate. Many are still hopeful for some proof, though. Praying for rape. They rather bizarrely think it will help justify all those dead Palestinian civilians. That's what living in a racist apartheid state does to one's humanity.

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Straight from horse's mouth:

https://www.facebook.com/john.almond.9/videos/1081888236423371

Mind telling me, how do you feel when you realise you've fallen for a bloody hoax, aimed to propagate a genocide?

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That's a lot of babies for one kibbutz, wow.

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In case anyone didn't know, I was being sarcastic

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Thank you for the clarification. Given all propaganda that is screamed at us all the time it is very difficult to see what is propaganda and what is sarcasm. Social media discussions are difficult.

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I agree. Sorry, my sarcasm was unhelpful. The standard report from the media is still "1200 people killed, mostly civilians", whereas the France 24 page says "The final death toll from the attack is now thought to be 695 Israeli civilians, including 36 children, as well as 373 security forces and 71 foreigners, giving a total of 1,139".

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It appears that Houthis managed a near miss on a Maersk container ship yesterday, after punching through Aegis air-defense umbrella. Apparently, they fired just three short-range ballistic missiles, two got intercepted and one got through.

I wouldn't expect them to be able to do it with the hardware they receive from Iran. Is there something more to it or is it just a random event?

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They've got 9 years of combat experience, plus several groups of IRGC advisors and commanders.

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Thanks 👍

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