I am no professional expert but just a person who wants clarity on things and also a avid Jet Fighter Fan .. Also thanks for clarifying all my doubts on the latest India Pakistan War .
My belief is no amount of ingenuous backyard engineering will take Ukraine out of technology gap they are starting to find themselves in. That gap is between "what you can produce" and "what you need to produce" because you have multi tier strategy.
The reason for this is lack of both vision and strategy to achieve that vision.
The level of innovation coming out of Ukraine is unprecedented.
Do you think Palintir sold a system to NATO that wasn't devised in Ukraine?
EU defense manufacturers are partnering with Ukraine also. This isn't politics. This is cold business. Capitalistic greed (I don't mean that as a negative BTW.)
Also the speed at which Ukraine can produce is unprecedented. Innovation and speed. These are normally an either/or choice.
Compared to western levels of iteration and innovation Ukraine is blazing fast. Can it produce at the level of the west? Depends on what you are producing. Patriot missiles? No. 155/2 shells? Soon. Drones? The west wishes!
No model is perfect. Including Ukraine's distributed model. But neither is the western model of defense Primes who lumber into motion after being coaxed out of caves with truck loads of cash.
The answer is a blend of both. Which Ukraine is moving towards. That's the vision, that's the strategy.
Look I am not comparing to western or russian systems for that matter. I am comparing to the needs of war.
It is not ingenious weapon that wins the war, but having that in quantities and applying according strategy. To put it simply both western and standard russian systems are over engineered. Means their target use case is not common. Most Ukrainian systems are under engineered, means they would not go where it is difficult. Like AI recon, put aside AI strike capabilities for now. It is not there. At least not mass solutions.
Or, on the other hand I am hearing people are developing "precision ballistic machine guns" with optics suited for 1 km target recognition. Nonsense, it would never come in metal, just because development is too expensive, system becomes too expensive, and questionable effectiveness. All means 0 chance of mass production. And there are much more cost effective solutions.
I would just paraphrase Don Rumsfeld. "You go to war with the army(defense industrial base) you have. Not the one you want." Ukraine's distributed system has a lot of flaws. But its good outweighs its bad, in my opinion.
One more thing. It was reported this week that Ukraine broke the 40km barrier with a fiber optic drone. If Kate Bondar at CSIS mentions it, that's good enough for me. This wasn't done by Raytheon, BAE or Anduril. Or Russia for that matter. It was done by Ukraine. Who is/was playing catchup to Russia on this tech.
This is a come-from-behind win. One that western mil-tech would never have been able to produce in the time Ukraine did. Never.
When I say in my Substack posts that "Ukraine has all the cards" it is of course clickbait hyperbole. But only just. Ukraine has a lot of cards. More than anyone in Europe, more than the US would like to admit.
When mentioning this, just bear in mind that this is physical limit for approach that is used now. Technically you can not make electric copter fly more then 60 minutes long. Thus one way range of 40-50 km is a limit. You can read my substack "weapons of the future part 3" for details. And this is in every other branch now. It is indeed ingenious to make this happen, but this does not solve the problem.
Physical limits are not unique to Ukraine. We all have to deal with physics.
Physics is an even playing field. So we are talking about responses to it. Ukraine's response this week went 40km. No one else's. Not the US response, not the NATO response. Not Russian.
Also, unless people reading this are in a trench line, occupied Ukraine, or Gaza, WE are Ukraine. Me and you. So Ukraine's failure is our failure.
Ukraine should not have to worry if it's ballistic missile program is the best investment of its limited war budget. But it does. It does because you and I, and others, didn't do near enough early on... and don't do near enough now.
I agree with and am glad Tom has the "come to Jesus" moments. I definitely need it. But lets all step back and put the blame where it needs to go.
In order:
1. Russia
2. Germany/Europe (energy policy)
3. USA
I don't see Ukraine on this list. Because they didn't do anything to get us into this situation. So yeah, Ukraine is corrupt, Ukraine's leaders make mistakes. Got it. How does that realization get a 155 shell to the front faster? Or a fiber drone to go 40km? It doesn't.
What does is European leadership. Pressure on the US from inside and out.
Supporting Ukraine where and when you can with pressure on leaders and money out of our own pockets.
I'll just say it. Ukraine doesn't have a leadership problem, the west does.
Right, but to be more precise, idiots on top, middle, right, left and centre. Because it is not Zelenskiy who invents a technical task for 1 km target recognition for machine gun module. It is simply wrong from design point of view. Just because optical system and control system becomes much more advanced then strike system it is attached to. And there is no need for 1 km target recognition, if you want protect from FPV drone. And precision required from a machine gun in such scenario is simply unattainable, super stabilization and the rest, back to the idiots.
Mate, I do not say anything like 'every new idea is great'. No doubt, many 'projects' are obvious fantasies and dayreams.
For every 'successful' project - one that results in delivering new and operational gear to the ZSU - there are at least 5 that are entirely useless.
Problem No. 1: every successful project was delayed - massively - by the necessity to bribe different jerks (yes, to the front, to the left and to the right) just in order to catch attention, and then to bribe different jerks in order to push it trough.
Problem No. 2: even if thare are at least 5 pointless projects for every one that's successful, there are also 5-10 very good ideas that 'never see the light of the day'. Because the system in the MOD is so broken, incompetent and corrupt.
I am saying that Ukraine's engineering teams need to stop enjoying themselves for being "first in the world" and abandon concept of "drone for everything" too. And start working towards solutions that are scalable, effective, future proof, and fit for the need.
Example is strike drone attacks. First Suharevskiy (head of unmanned forces) says: "We are one of top 5 nations producing a battle laser". Hmm... Okay, politically incorrect question how many strike drones you downed with that one? 6 months later... We have a new super duper drone that can attack incoming fast flying strike drones and we are working towards using it.. okay. 3 months later, we downed 36 in the last month and 24 in the month before. "We are first in the world to use drones for air defence".
Okay, why then you lost three F16s while doing the same?
And all while 40mm anti air guns, designed in the past world war exactly for this, are still sitting in the backyards all around the world.
I think we two are kind of 'talking past each other'.
You appear to be (actually) talking about what are officials at the MOD doing. I'm talking about people actually R&D-ing - not only UAVs, but many other 'things'.
The (few) Ukrainian engineering teams I happen to be in touch with, are too busy with doing what they do, but to go boasting around with their inventions. And even if they would not be as busy as they are, then they are more interested in remaining anonymous than with boasting around: because anonymity is keeping them safe from Russian missile strikes.
Actually, the sole instance I know is boasting with these - is the MOD, or different of government's functionaries.
In turn, the anonymity of Ukrainian engineering teams is making their job extremely problematic precisely because in order to secure major orders from the ZSU - to have their projects, and then the production of results, financed by the government - they have to 'emerge out of anonymity'.
...and to achieve that, one has to bribe a lots of people - typically people currently not even residing in Ukraine.
If you are talking about "front line" engineers, it is one thing, especially when people are finding solutions for daily countering enemy's measures. And then finding private teams to help them scale those solutions, and then MOD and the rest.
But if you are speaking about private contractors at mass, they would be all to happy to create such nonsense solutions, as long as they can bill for it right away.
And both are short of resources for any serious RnD. Again I am referring you to the article of Berlinska, who knows many teams from inside out:
What exactly does it mean to punch above your weight?
Find yourself in a war, that someone in your name didn't absolutely refuse to provoke,
enthusiastically give up on early offers to negotiate,
with a belief one is punching above his weight,
get two million uniforms, rifles, body armour,
have two million citizens legally defined as soldiers,
with no limit on how many of them are going to get killed,
in a war with a stronger opponent ,
because they have been led to believe they are punching above their weight.
How many is too many?
Enthusiastically supported from the corner, by a very strong team of advisers, coaches, and friends, a lightweight boxer is punching above his weight in a fight with a heavyweight champion.
Coach, allies, friends in the corner pretend not to know how is it going to end.
I'm glad you were not around for the US revolution.
Also, you guys seem to forget that this war isn't between only Russia and Ukraine. When Russia invaded in 2014 and 2022 he invaded Europe, he put NATO at risk. He put the rules based order at risk. The order that keeps you (I assume you are not writing me from Gaza or occupied Kherson.) safe and cozy. Russia went to war with you. You don't have to believe me for it to be true.
So the sooner everyone realizes that Ukraine is us... all of us. The better. So it's you that you are criticizing. You and I are the weak link. Not the ones fighting and dying. And... in the interest of self preservation, you might want to start with that.
Force no one. Do not use force to conscript citizens for war. Not in Ukraine, not in EU.
You and all others who feel attacked are free to go and defend Ukraine. Leave the rest of us live in peace. Perhaps negotiate neutrality for Ukraine.
If that is too much for you, another simple solution.
Referendum in each European state. Whoever wins, has a right to go into war with Russia.
See, I am a normal citizen, and I, my brother, my three sons will be called to fight a war, that is completely idiotic, unnecessary, provoked by Western arrogance.
It is already sad how many people died, stop it before more die.
Warmongers are ridiculing Trump, but Trump has an instinct to say what normal people feel. It should not have happened.
The root cause of the war is distrust,
Russian do not trust Ukrainians that they will not join an alliance that is an enemy of Russia, they need a paper, signed by Ukraine, NATO and US.
Ukrainians do not trust Russia not to attack and try to change borders. They need a paper
Any half witted diplomat but willing could have resolved this. How? By building trust, between between Ukraine and Russia, US and Russia, EU and Russia…
Ukraine has a piece of paper, signed by Russians, that Russians would respect and defend Ukrainian boundaries because Ukraine handed their nukes over.
In 2014, and again in 2022, Ukraine was reminded what they (and everyone else) already knew. Never, ever trust Russians to honor their sworn agreements.
Russians remember: not one inch to the East, Minsk 1, Minsk 2, Istanbul, all examples of US/Western duplicity.
Regarding Budapest memorandum, Ukraine has been constitutionally a neutral state in times Budapest agreement was signed. Reneging on neutrality, annulled the agreement.
In short, I would not trust Russians if I was Ukrainian, and I would not trust Ukrainians or West if I was Russian.
But this is when one can use help from foreign, hopefully friendly states, and intelligent leaders and diplomats..
Remember Nixon& Kissinger vs Mao Zedong & Zhou Enlai agreement on Taiwan, codifying what they agreed and what they disagreed.
Like ancient Greek fortuneteller Pythia, the high priestess of the Temple of Apollo at Delphi, giving the the prophecy to King Croesus,
What will happen if I go to war against Persia?
If you go to war against Persia, a great empire will be destroyed.
It turned out to be his own.
Kissinger and Zhou have done a better job. Eight consecutive US presidents, NIixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush sr., Clinton, Bush jr., Obama, Trump, Biden, Trump again have used original agreement not to start the war with China, an excellent result.
A document codifying in a pythian manner agreements and disagreements on Ukraine, NATO, RUssia could have saved hundred thousand lives.
But US needed China, in 1972. and Kissinger was an intelligent man, knowing real politics and diplomacy.
You need to find honest sources of information. US/West never agreed to banish Ukraine (or for that matter Poland, Czech, Baltics Georgia, or any other country that was once a Soviet slave state) from NATO. US/West has no control over Ukraine, although US/West has supported Ukraine in defending themselves against Russia's brutal war crimes. US/West has always supported all those countries' ambition to be sovereign, despite a century of Nazi / Soviet / Russian aggression, although it's fair to say US/West has not supported Ukraine very well.
It's weird you'd talk about neutrality. Ukraine and Georgia WERE neutral until Russia attacked and occupied them. Austria and Swiss remain neutral, yet Russia doesn't seem to mind they are free. Clearly one lasting result of Russia's aggression will be that Sweden and Finland joined NATO. Another is that both Switzerland and Austria figured out they need to support Ukraine while remaining officially neutral. We'll see how long that lasts.
If Russia were to withdraw from Ukraine and Georgia (allowing them govern themselves) there would be peace. Instead, Putin insists on trying to enslave them the way the Soviets did. No wonder they are resisting.
(BTW, have you ever been to Georgia? Russians are universally hated and they fly EU flags as if Georgia had already been admitted to EU. Ongoing Russian war crimes are not helping Russians in Georgia.)
It's SUPER weird that you would bring up China & Taiwan. Taiwan (just like Ukraine and Israel) wants to be a normal, peaceful democracy. None of the 3 want to be wiped off the earth or enslaved. It's great that China has not (yet) attacked Taiwan but Russia did attack and invade Ukraine. If China actually does expand their aggression, attacking Taiwan, Taiwan would respond the same way Ukraine has responded to Russia and Israel has responded to Hamas.
If only Russia were to act towards Georgia and Ukraine the way China has been acting towards Taiwan - mere saber rattling, so far anyway.
Just to give you an idea how I think, I think of all the football/soccer games, basketball games, tennis matches, volleyball matches, handball, hockey matches, innumerable video games... all those young men could have played instead of killing each other.
When your homeland, fatherland, motherland calls you answer, go and fight and die if necessary, all the times with God on our side, democracy, NATO, etc.
But you do have right to ask of those in command, not to start wars if not absolutely necessary.
And you do have right to ask your friends to either join the fight themselves or stop warmongering.
You don’t get it do you? I simply asked you to hold Russia to the standards you hold Europe and Ukraine. You failed this simple test. We have nothing more to discuss.
Nobody in "the west" asked Ukraine to fight back against enslavement. Zelenskyy was famously offered an escape and he said he wanted arms to fight the evil, not a ride. Some Russians imagine they are fighting "the west." Russia is fighting only Ukraine, which has received only small portion of the arms they would need to defend themselves.
IMHO you acting as a Russian troll overstepped a red line.. Submitting and surrender to a psychotic bloody old man inside the Kremlin known as "Gollum" aka Pudding aka Putin is just a form of suicide as he offers just the choice between being enslaved or buried in a anonymous mass grave.
He acts in best soviet tradition. No matter how often they change the name from Tscheka, OGPU, NKWD, KGB, FSB... their bloody, misanthropic 'hand writing' is always the same.
He has no limits in bringing back an empire the world doesn't need at all.
I Have only one answer to this: "Slava Ukraini i Putin huilo".
Talking positively about the "rules based order" and then mentioning Gaza in the next sentence is utterly insane. The contradictions could not be more stark.
The proponents of the "rules based order" invaded Iraq on a total lie, killed about half a million people, and destroyed the country. It did similar in Afghanistan, Libya, etc. Currently the rules based order is aiding and abetting a genocide in Palestine. Flattened hospitals and the mangled bodies of children are the fruits of Washington's rules based order.
It was not Russia who put the rules based order at risk, it was and still is the US. Russia just followed the US's lead. Since 2003 Washington has utterly trashed any notion of rules or order. Of course, they've been trashing them since the end of WW2, albeit a little less blatantly and/or with better control of the narrative. In reality the rules based order was always just a coat of paint, a comforting story to justify the current state of things and explain why it's actually good that we are killing people in X or sanctioning Y to the point of child starvation. When it comes to geopolitics it is sadly still as Thucydide's said a couple thousand years ago: The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must. When you are really strong you can hit people in the face and say "stop hitting yourself." That's the rules based order.
The reason the global south, most of Asia, et al look with deep skepticism at the claims made by the US about Russia and Ukraine is because they all see and remember what the rules based order means in practice. They know there are no rules and there is no order. They know--many from direct experience--that there is only the cold, ruthless, zero-sum logic of realpolitik. Hopefully when this is all over Ukraine will be able to count itself among this group of countries who grasp how the world really operates.
Umm, no. Commerce is not the rules based order. This is nothing more than an appeal to the status quo and a conflation of two distinct things. All I can get from your comment is that you think that the invasion of Iraq and the genocide in Gaza are good or at last acceptable trade-offs if it means your lifestyle is maintained. Massacres for merchandise, goods for genocide, is that it? This really weakens any criticism you may have of Russia's actions. Actually, "weakens" is the wrong word. It destroys your criticism because Russia can make the same point - it benefits Russians to invade Ukraine, so who cares?! Many Russians are making a lot of money from this war either directly or indirectly so therefore it is right. Your argument then is not about international law or human rights or respecting sovereignty. You agree with ugly truth hidden under the veil of the rules based order which I described in my previous comment. In the future you should just say that. Eg, might makes right, acquisition of resources is all that matters. Or perhaps you simply don't understand what the "rules based order" is supposed to mean, at least in principle.
I see no point to pick those who disagree with you to rant "everybody's wrong but mine" while ignoring those who shared the same view as you. That's life, there will be always someone with different opinion unless you are Kim Jong Un.
Of course there are more. Would never say there are none. And it's not about 'facts': it's about jealous incompetents that never heard about me before.
Even with all of your work, there are still people screaming in 2025 that the Iranian air force and especially Iranian F-14s shot down nothing or next to nothing in the entire 8 year war.
I must apologize I read the whole piece. Must have been brainwashed by reading your blog for so long. If you don’t want to write about Ukraine now don’t. But maybe something about Richshaws? So we frustrated readers can do something supportive?
Thank you Tom. Regarding your comment on the 2-3 year payback period for the German-financed Ukrainian long-range weapons project, information has appeared in the Ukrainian media that it could be a matter of a few weeks. Although, it is unclear what weapons are being discussed.
But, it's worse than that. The most "prestigious" experts are paid to invent pretexts to support the pre-ordained conclusion. After delivering that report, such experts have no option but to disparage anyone whose conclusions are supported by evidence.
For example the most "prestigious" business consulting firms use famous euphemisms such as "Results Driven Consulting" to describe their work. After all, who doesn't want results? The prestigious firms love that it's expensive to convince bosses that your pre-ordained nutty conclusion makes any sense. This line of work pays great! Because "Fact Driven Consulting" pays less, has fewer billable hours, and their work is so nitty gritty, it makes those firms less prestigious. Anyway, the horrible thing about hiring fact driven experts is you probably already know the facts are against your pet project, so you'd be paying someone to kill off your project.
The PRESTIGIOUS experts have no option than to disparage a fact driven expert.
As Upton Sinclair pointed out — 'It is difficult to get a (person) to understand something, when (their) salary depends on (their) not understanding it.'
You posted about situations where other military analysts were forced to understand things they didn't want to understand. Their livelihood and prestige depends on their client / boss believing they know what they're talking about. If they said "A" and you now show "B" they are beyond jealous. They are threatened and angry. Of course they will attack back.
For example, the evidence you presented that India destroyed unground nuclear facilities in Pakistan, that was not reported widely, presents very real (but different) problems for their "experts."
Experts in every field disagree, and all hate being exposed as jealous incompetents. Doesn't really matter whether they have heard of you.
Yup, and most of that's truth. I've got no academic degree, definitely no PhD, and I'm surely no expert.
I'm an autodidact, though one considering history a science, and applying scientific methods of research. A bi-product of that is that a part of my job as editor for Helion's six @War book-series is to run 'peer-reviews' of submitted project proposals and manuscripts.
To, between others, and if necessary, turn down projects that are failures, or prompt authors into updating/correcting/editing manuscripts contaning factual mistakes in reseearch or in analysis.
Therefore, stating that Helion is not subjecting books it is publishing to 'peer reviews' is nonsense.
'Shit happens'...
Actually, this part of my work alone is meanwhile taking up to 30-40% of my working time. Just for example, right now, I'm 'peer-reviewing' a specific manuscript where I've found a number of factually incorrect statements (and already requested the author to review the same).
...another part of my job is to then receive e-mails from multiple professors teaching on very different universities (anywhere from Seattle to Tehran), explaining how much they envy me/us (Helion) for being in a position to research, draw conclusions, and publish whatever our authors, or me, want to research and publish, whatever conclusions we draw - as opposed to them being dictated what topics they must research, and what theories they have to confirm through their research, before they even start researching.
...and if they do not complain about that, then they're complaining about peer-reviews ruining hundreds of highly promising research projects, delaying their publication by 8-10 years and similar...
(So much about 'scientific' work of honourable academics having PhDs, and their peer-reviews.)
I am no professional expert but just a person who wants clarity on things and also a avid Jet Fighter Fan .. Also thanks for clarifying all my doubts on the latest India Pakistan War .
A needed dose of reality!
Thanks for the squirrel.
India and Pakistan saw this high action thriller after so many years. Europeans are almost numbed by Ukraine war.
The Western 'inteligentsya' cannot even comprehend what's happened between India and Pakistan between 7 and 10 May.
My god man! Is there a squirrel gap?????!!!!
My belief is no amount of ingenuous backyard engineering will take Ukraine out of technology gap they are starting to find themselves in. That gap is between "what you can produce" and "what you need to produce" because you have multi tier strategy.
The reason for this is lack of both vision and strategy to achieve that vision.
I could not disagree more.
The level of innovation coming out of Ukraine is unprecedented.
Do you think Palintir sold a system to NATO that wasn't devised in Ukraine?
EU defense manufacturers are partnering with Ukraine also. This isn't politics. This is cold business. Capitalistic greed (I don't mean that as a negative BTW.)
Also the speed at which Ukraine can produce is unprecedented. Innovation and speed. These are normally an either/or choice.
Compared to western levels of iteration and innovation Ukraine is blazing fast. Can it produce at the level of the west? Depends on what you are producing. Patriot missiles? No. 155/2 shells? Soon. Drones? The west wishes!
No model is perfect. Including Ukraine's distributed model. But neither is the western model of defense Primes who lumber into motion after being coaxed out of caves with truck loads of cash.
The answer is a blend of both. Which Ukraine is moving towards. That's the vision, that's the strategy.
Look I am not comparing to western or russian systems for that matter. I am comparing to the needs of war.
It is not ingenious weapon that wins the war, but having that in quantities and applying according strategy. To put it simply both western and standard russian systems are over engineered. Means their target use case is not common. Most Ukrainian systems are under engineered, means they would not go where it is difficult. Like AI recon, put aside AI strike capabilities for now. It is not there. At least not mass solutions.
Or, on the other hand I am hearing people are developing "precision ballistic machine guns" with optics suited for 1 km target recognition. Nonsense, it would never come in metal, just because development is too expensive, system becomes too expensive, and questionable effectiveness. All means 0 chance of mass production. And there are much more cost effective solutions.
I see what you are saying and mostly agree.
I would just paraphrase Don Rumsfeld. "You go to war with the army(defense industrial base) you have. Not the one you want." Ukraine's distributed system has a lot of flaws. But its good outweighs its bad, in my opinion.
One more thing. It was reported this week that Ukraine broke the 40km barrier with a fiber optic drone. If Kate Bondar at CSIS mentions it, that's good enough for me. This wasn't done by Raytheon, BAE or Anduril. Or Russia for that matter. It was done by Ukraine. Who is/was playing catchup to Russia on this tech.
This is a come-from-behind win. One that western mil-tech would never have been able to produce in the time Ukraine did. Never.
When I say in my Substack posts that "Ukraine has all the cards" it is of course clickbait hyperbole. But only just. Ukraine has a lot of cards. More than anyone in Europe, more than the US would like to admit.
Havent got the energy to argue, but i totaly disagree, and could probably come up with 3 more likely outecomes that go the totaly other way.
When mentioning this, just bear in mind that this is physical limit for approach that is used now. Technically you can not make electric copter fly more then 60 minutes long. Thus one way range of 40-50 km is a limit. You can read my substack "weapons of the future part 3" for details. And this is in every other branch now. It is indeed ingenious to make this happen, but this does not solve the problem.
Physical limits are not unique to Ukraine. We all have to deal with physics.
Physics is an even playing field. So we are talking about responses to it. Ukraine's response this week went 40km. No one else's. Not the US response, not the NATO response. Not Russian.
Also, unless people reading this are in a trench line, occupied Ukraine, or Gaza, WE are Ukraine. Me and you. So Ukraine's failure is our failure.
Ukraine should not have to worry if it's ballistic missile program is the best investment of its limited war budget. But it does. It does because you and I, and others, didn't do near enough early on... and don't do near enough now.
I agree with and am glad Tom has the "come to Jesus" moments. I definitely need it. But lets all step back and put the blame where it needs to go.
In order:
1. Russia
2. Germany/Europe (energy policy)
3. USA
I don't see Ukraine on this list. Because they didn't do anything to get us into this situation. So yeah, Ukraine is corrupt, Ukraine's leaders make mistakes. Got it. How does that realization get a 155 shell to the front faster? Or a fiber drone to go 40km? It doesn't.
What does is European leadership. Pressure on the US from inside and out.
Supporting Ukraine where and when you can with pressure on leaders and money out of our own pockets.
I'll just say it. Ukraine doesn't have a leadership problem, the west does.
Well Lancet has 70+ km range and in the air since before the war. What's more to say?
The problem (in Ukraine) is not the indigenous backyard engineering: that indigenous backyard engineering is keeping Ukraine afloat.
The problem are idiots at the top, stubbornly keeping it the backyard engineering - although proven wrong, and wrong, and again, and again.
Always because if it's not their ideas, nor under their control, then it can't be.
Right, but to be more precise, idiots on top, middle, right, left and centre. Because it is not Zelenskiy who invents a technical task for 1 km target recognition for machine gun module. It is simply wrong from design point of view. Just because optical system and control system becomes much more advanced then strike system it is attached to. And there is no need for 1 km target recognition, if you want protect from FPV drone. And precision required from a machine gun in such scenario is simply unattainable, super stabilization and the rest, back to the idiots.
Mate, I do not say anything like 'every new idea is great'. No doubt, many 'projects' are obvious fantasies and dayreams.
For every 'successful' project - one that results in delivering new and operational gear to the ZSU - there are at least 5 that are entirely useless.
Problem No. 1: every successful project was delayed - massively - by the necessity to bribe different jerks (yes, to the front, to the left and to the right) just in order to catch attention, and then to bribe different jerks in order to push it trough.
Problem No. 2: even if thare are at least 5 pointless projects for every one that's successful, there are also 5-10 very good ideas that 'never see the light of the day'. Because the system in the MOD is so broken, incompetent and corrupt.
I am saying that Ukraine's engineering teams need to stop enjoying themselves for being "first in the world" and abandon concept of "drone for everything" too. And start working towards solutions that are scalable, effective, future proof, and fit for the need.
Example is strike drone attacks. First Suharevskiy (head of unmanned forces) says: "We are one of top 5 nations producing a battle laser". Hmm... Okay, politically incorrect question how many strike drones you downed with that one? 6 months later... We have a new super duper drone that can attack incoming fast flying strike drones and we are working towards using it.. okay. 3 months later, we downed 36 in the last month and 24 in the month before. "We are first in the world to use drones for air defence".
Okay, why then you lost three F16s while doing the same?
And all while 40mm anti air guns, designed in the past world war exactly for this, are still sitting in the backyards all around the world.
I think we two are kind of 'talking past each other'.
You appear to be (actually) talking about what are officials at the MOD doing. I'm talking about people actually R&D-ing - not only UAVs, but many other 'things'.
The (few) Ukrainian engineering teams I happen to be in touch with, are too busy with doing what they do, but to go boasting around with their inventions. And even if they would not be as busy as they are, then they are more interested in remaining anonymous than with boasting around: because anonymity is keeping them safe from Russian missile strikes.
Actually, the sole instance I know is boasting with these - is the MOD, or different of government's functionaries.
In turn, the anonymity of Ukrainian engineering teams is making their job extremely problematic precisely because in order to secure major orders from the ZSU - to have their projects, and then the production of results, financed by the government - they have to 'emerge out of anonymity'.
...and to achieve that, one has to bribe a lots of people - typically people currently not even residing in Ukraine.
If you are talking about "front line" engineers, it is one thing, especially when people are finding solutions for daily countering enemy's measures. And then finding private teams to help them scale those solutions, and then MOD and the rest.
But if you are speaking about private contractors at mass, they would be all to happy to create such nonsense solutions, as long as they can bill for it right away.
And both are short of resources for any serious RnD. Again I am referring you to the article of Berlinska, who knows many teams from inside out:
https://gordonua.com/amp/ukr/blogs/mariia-berlinska/jakshcho-mi-dumajemo-na-rishennjakh-iz-lajna-i-palok-protjahnuti-shche-kilka-rokiv-vijni-tse-pohano-zakinchitsja-1742820.html
Example of private contractors read recent "Punisher" fixed wing bomber saga commentary in twitter.
TLDR: are you unprofessional or incompetent?
You are most certainly pro-russian, because any of these two will qualify!
Both. Or all the three.
Because some jealous incompetents never heard of my work before.
Your rant is my rant, for what that's worth.
A real question
What exactly does it mean to punch above your weight?
Find yourself in a war, that someone in your name didn't absolutely refuse to provoke,
enthusiastically give up on early offers to negotiate,
with a belief one is punching above his weight,
get two million uniforms, rifles, body armour,
have two million citizens legally defined as soldiers,
with no limit on how many of them are going to get killed,
in a war with a stronger opponent ,
because they have been led to believe they are punching above their weight.
How many is too many?
Enthusiastically supported from the corner, by a very strong team of advisers, coaches, and friends, a lightweight boxer is punching above his weight in a fight with a heavyweight champion.
Coach, allies, friends in the corner pretend not to know how is it going to end.
I'm glad you were not around for the US revolution.
Also, you guys seem to forget that this war isn't between only Russia and Ukraine. When Russia invaded in 2014 and 2022 he invaded Europe, he put NATO at risk. He put the rules based order at risk. The order that keeps you (I assume you are not writing me from Gaza or occupied Kherson.) safe and cozy. Russia went to war with you. You don't have to believe me for it to be true.
So the sooner everyone realizes that Ukraine is us... all of us. The better. So it's you that you are criticizing. You and I are the weak link. Not the ones fighting and dying. And... in the interest of self preservation, you might want to start with that.
A simple solution is available.
Force no one. Do not use force to conscript citizens for war. Not in Ukraine, not in EU.
You and all others who feel attacked are free to go and defend Ukraine. Leave the rest of us live in peace. Perhaps negotiate neutrality for Ukraine.
If that is too much for you, another simple solution.
Referendum in each European state. Whoever wins, has a right to go into war with Russia.
See, I am a normal citizen, and I, my brother, my three sons will be called to fight a war, that is completely idiotic, unnecessary, provoked by Western arrogance.
It is already sad how many people died, stop it before more die.
Warmongers are ridiculing Trump, but Trump has an instinct to say what normal people feel. It should not have happened.
The root cause of the war is distrust,
Russian do not trust Ukrainians that they will not join an alliance that is an enemy of Russia, they need a paper, signed by Ukraine, NATO and US.
Ukrainians do not trust Russia not to attack and try to change borders. They need a paper
Any half witted diplomat but willing could have resolved this. How? By building trust, between between Ukraine and Russia, US and Russia, EU and Russia…
Troll propaganda. Propaganda wrapped in a delicious pacifist candy coating. Dipped in not-my-problem chocolate! Yummy!
Well, RU,
I am not a pacifist. Just a normal European. When my country was attacked, I defended it, my brother defended it.
I just think it is dishonest to send other people's kids to die in a war that you are not prepared to fight yourself.
OK, I give you some credit for defending your country when it was attacked. Which country is this?
Ukraine has a piece of paper, signed by Russians, that Russians would respect and defend Ukrainian boundaries because Ukraine handed their nukes over.
In 2014, and again in 2022, Ukraine was reminded what they (and everyone else) already knew. Never, ever trust Russians to honor their sworn agreements.
Why would Ukrainians trust Russians now?
Distrust is mutual. And deservedly so.
Russians remember: not one inch to the East, Minsk 1, Minsk 2, Istanbul, all examples of US/Western duplicity.
Regarding Budapest memorandum, Ukraine has been constitutionally a neutral state in times Budapest agreement was signed. Reneging on neutrality, annulled the agreement.
In short, I would not trust Russians if I was Ukrainian, and I would not trust Ukrainians or West if I was Russian.
But this is when one can use help from foreign, hopefully friendly states, and intelligent leaders and diplomats..
Remember Nixon& Kissinger vs Mao Zedong & Zhou Enlai agreement on Taiwan, codifying what they agreed and what they disagreed.
Like ancient Greek fortuneteller Pythia, the high priestess of the Temple of Apollo at Delphi, giving the the prophecy to King Croesus,
What will happen if I go to war against Persia?
If you go to war against Persia, a great empire will be destroyed.
It turned out to be his own.
Kissinger and Zhou have done a better job. Eight consecutive US presidents, NIixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush sr., Clinton, Bush jr., Obama, Trump, Biden, Trump again have used original agreement not to start the war with China, an excellent result.
A document codifying in a pythian manner agreements and disagreements on Ukraine, NATO, RUssia could have saved hundred thousand lives.
But US needed China, in 1972. and Kissinger was an intelligent man, knowing real politics and diplomacy.
You need to find honest sources of information. US/West never agreed to banish Ukraine (or for that matter Poland, Czech, Baltics Georgia, or any other country that was once a Soviet slave state) from NATO. US/West has no control over Ukraine, although US/West has supported Ukraine in defending themselves against Russia's brutal war crimes. US/West has always supported all those countries' ambition to be sovereign, despite a century of Nazi / Soviet / Russian aggression, although it's fair to say US/West has not supported Ukraine very well.
It's weird you'd talk about neutrality. Ukraine and Georgia WERE neutral until Russia attacked and occupied them. Austria and Swiss remain neutral, yet Russia doesn't seem to mind they are free. Clearly one lasting result of Russia's aggression will be that Sweden and Finland joined NATO. Another is that both Switzerland and Austria figured out they need to support Ukraine while remaining officially neutral. We'll see how long that lasts.
If Russia were to withdraw from Ukraine and Georgia (allowing them govern themselves) there would be peace. Instead, Putin insists on trying to enslave them the way the Soviets did. No wonder they are resisting.
(BTW, have you ever been to Georgia? Russians are universally hated and they fly EU flags as if Georgia had already been admitted to EU. Ongoing Russian war crimes are not helping Russians in Georgia.)
It's SUPER weird that you would bring up China & Taiwan. Taiwan (just like Ukraine and Israel) wants to be a normal, peaceful democracy. None of the 3 want to be wiped off the earth or enslaved. It's great that China has not (yet) attacked Taiwan but Russia did attack and invade Ukraine. If China actually does expand their aggression, attacking Taiwan, Taiwan would respond the same way Ukraine has responded to Russia and Israel has responded to Hamas.
If only Russia were to act towards Georgia and Ukraine the way China has been acting towards Taiwan - mere saber rattling, so far anyway.
Force no one you say, then attack Ukraine and Eu. While ignoring to criticize Russia. Coincidence? Hardly. You think we don’t see through your drivel?
This is not a football game, Hans.
Just to give you an idea how I think, I think of all the football/soccer games, basketball games, tennis matches, volleyball matches, handball, hockey matches, innumerable video games... all those young men could have played instead of killing each other.
When your homeland, fatherland, motherland calls you answer, go and fight and die if necessary, all the times with God on our side, democracy, NATO, etc.
But you do have right to ask of those in command, not to start wars if not absolutely necessary.
And you do have right to ask your friends to either join the fight themselves or stop warmongering.
You don’t get it do you? I simply asked you to hold Russia to the standards you hold Europe and Ukraine. You failed this simple test. We have nothing more to discuss.
I just think it is dishonest to send other people's kids to die in a war that you are not prepared to fight yourself.
Nobody in "the west" asked Ukraine to fight back against enslavement. Zelenskyy was famously offered an escape and he said he wanted arms to fight the evil, not a ride. Some Russians imagine they are fighting "the west." Russia is fighting only Ukraine, which has received only small portion of the arms they would need to defend themselves.
I just think it is dishonest to send other people's kids to die in a war that you are not prepared to fight yourself.
As long as Leeds wins, it does not matter how the mach was.
IMHO you acting as a Russian troll overstepped a red line.. Submitting and surrender to a psychotic bloody old man inside the Kremlin known as "Gollum" aka Pudding aka Putin is just a form of suicide as he offers just the choice between being enslaved or buried in a anonymous mass grave.
He acts in best soviet tradition. No matter how often they change the name from Tscheka, OGPU, NKWD, KGB, FSB... their bloody, misanthropic 'hand writing' is always the same.
He has no limits in bringing back an empire the world doesn't need at all.
I Have only one answer to this: "Slava Ukraini i Putin huilo".
I just think it is dishonest to send other people's kids to die in a war that you are not prepared to fight yourself.
Go, say that to Putin.
Talking positively about the "rules based order" and then mentioning Gaza in the next sentence is utterly insane. The contradictions could not be more stark.
The proponents of the "rules based order" invaded Iraq on a total lie, killed about half a million people, and destroyed the country. It did similar in Afghanistan, Libya, etc. Currently the rules based order is aiding and abetting a genocide in Palestine. Flattened hospitals and the mangled bodies of children are the fruits of Washington's rules based order.
It was not Russia who put the rules based order at risk, it was and still is the US. Russia just followed the US's lead. Since 2003 Washington has utterly trashed any notion of rules or order. Of course, they've been trashing them since the end of WW2, albeit a little less blatantly and/or with better control of the narrative. In reality the rules based order was always just a coat of paint, a comforting story to justify the current state of things and explain why it's actually good that we are killing people in X or sanctioning Y to the point of child starvation. When it comes to geopolitics it is sadly still as Thucydide's said a couple thousand years ago: The strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must. When you are really strong you can hit people in the face and say "stop hitting yourself." That's the rules based order.
The reason the global south, most of Asia, et al look with deep skepticism at the claims made by the US about Russia and Ukraine is because they all see and remember what the rules based order means in practice. They know there are no rules and there is no order. They know--many from direct experience--that there is only the cold, ruthless, zero-sum logic of realpolitik. Hopefully when this is all over Ukraine will be able to count itself among this group of countries who grasp how the world really operates.
The rules based order also provides your income and lifestyle. Unless you are a subsistence farmer with no phone or internet. So, how are we talking?
Umm, no. Commerce is not the rules based order. This is nothing more than an appeal to the status quo and a conflation of two distinct things. All I can get from your comment is that you think that the invasion of Iraq and the genocide in Gaza are good or at last acceptable trade-offs if it means your lifestyle is maintained. Massacres for merchandise, goods for genocide, is that it? This really weakens any criticism you may have of Russia's actions. Actually, "weakens" is the wrong word. It destroys your criticism because Russia can make the same point - it benefits Russians to invade Ukraine, so who cares?! Many Russians are making a lot of money from this war either directly or indirectly so therefore it is right. Your argument then is not about international law or human rights or respecting sovereignty. You agree with ugly truth hidden under the veil of the rules based order which I described in my previous comment. In the future you should just say that. Eg, might makes right, acquisition of resources is all that matters. Or perhaps you simply don't understand what the "rules based order" is supposed to mean, at least in principle.
I bet you had a "no blood for oil" sticker on your car!
Classic, woe-is-me, blaming anynone veryone but the expired pudding in its moskal bunker.
"didn't absolutely refuse to provoke" how about you go fuck yourself? How about I punch in your face then cry about it if you hit back?
It would help if you would read what I wrote.
It would help even more if you shut the fuck up.
I see you do not agree with my opinion.
Any arguments, ideas, facts that might support your opposition ?
https://imgur.com/a/fOQ7Rcv
nah id prefer punching you, hard.
There are more of those who criticise Syrski in Ukraine e.g. https://x.com/BohdanKrotevych/ or as you have also mentioned https://x.com/Tatarigami_UA
I see no point to pick those who disagree with you to rant "everybody's wrong but mine" while ignoring those who shared the same view as you. That's life, there will be always someone with different opinion unless you are Kim Jong Un.
Of course there are more. Would never say there are none. And it's not about 'facts': it's about jealous incompetents that never heard about me before.
Even with all of your work, there are still people screaming in 2025 that the Iranian air force and especially Iranian F-14s shot down nothing or next to nothing in the entire 8 year war.
...and Iranian F-14s never scored a kill, had only dysfunctional AWG-9s, and only served as mini-AWACS.
Makes one wonder: how was the type supposed to serve as 'mini-AWACS' - with a dysfunctional AWG-9...
Ahah with Schrodinger's Radar of course 😜
With a decent pair of binoculars, I guess.
I must apologize I read the whole piece. Must have been brainwashed by reading your blog for so long. If you don’t want to write about Ukraine now don’t. But maybe something about Richshaws? So we frustrated readers can do something supportive?
The next Rickshaws update is due tomorrow, of course.
EDIT: or even earlier. Posted it a minute ago.
https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/rickshaws-for-the-zsu-update-22
Thank you Tom. Regarding your comment on the 2-3 year payback period for the German-financed Ukrainian long-range weapons project, information has appeared in the Ukrainian media that it could be a matter of a few weeks. Although, it is unclear what weapons are being discussed.
https://www.obozrevatel.com/ukr/politics-news/persha-profinansovana-nimechchinoyu-ukrainska-dalekobijna-zbroya-mozhe-buti-gotova-za-kilkoh-tizhniv-pro-scho-jdetsya-foto.htm
In every field, experts disagree.
But, it's worse than that. The most "prestigious" experts are paid to invent pretexts to support the pre-ordained conclusion. After delivering that report, such experts have no option but to disparage anyone whose conclusions are supported by evidence.
For example the most "prestigious" business consulting firms use famous euphemisms such as "Results Driven Consulting" to describe their work. After all, who doesn't want results? The prestigious firms love that it's expensive to convince bosses that your pre-ordained nutty conclusion makes any sense. This line of work pays great! Because "Fact Driven Consulting" pays less, has fewer billable hours, and their work is so nitty gritty, it makes those firms less prestigious. Anyway, the horrible thing about hiring fact driven experts is you probably already know the facts are against your pet project, so you'd be paying someone to kill off your project.
The PRESTIGIOUS experts have no option than to disparage a fact driven expert.
This is not even about 'disagreement': if I would at least experience somebody challenging me in serious fashion... great.
It's about personal attacks by jealous incompetents that never heard about me before.
I totally get that.
As Upton Sinclair pointed out — 'It is difficult to get a (person) to understand something, when (their) salary depends on (their) not understanding it.'
You posted about situations where other military analysts were forced to understand things they didn't want to understand. Their livelihood and prestige depends on their client / boss believing they know what they're talking about. If they said "A" and you now show "B" they are beyond jealous. They are threatened and angry. Of course they will attack back.
For example, the evidence you presented that India destroyed unground nuclear facilities in Pakistan, that was not reported widely, presents very real (but different) problems for their "experts."
Experts in every field disagree, and all hate being exposed as jealous incompetents. Doesn't really matter whether they have heard of you.
I have seen one commentary ...
"Tom cooper books are published by Helion which does not require a peer review and he does not have a Phd , so yeah not an expert".
Phd priviledge needs to be maintained.
Yup, and most of that's truth. I've got no academic degree, definitely no PhD, and I'm surely no expert.
I'm an autodidact, though one considering history a science, and applying scientific methods of research. A bi-product of that is that a part of my job as editor for Helion's six @War book-series is to run 'peer-reviews' of submitted project proposals and manuscripts.
To, between others, and if necessary, turn down projects that are failures, or prompt authors into updating/correcting/editing manuscripts contaning factual mistakes in reseearch or in analysis.
Therefore, stating that Helion is not subjecting books it is publishing to 'peer reviews' is nonsense.
'Shit happens'...
Actually, this part of my work alone is meanwhile taking up to 30-40% of my working time. Just for example, right now, I'm 'peer-reviewing' a specific manuscript where I've found a number of factually incorrect statements (and already requested the author to review the same).
...another part of my job is to then receive e-mails from multiple professors teaching on very different universities (anywhere from Seattle to Tehran), explaining how much they envy me/us (Helion) for being in a position to research, draw conclusions, and publish whatever our authors, or me, want to research and publish, whatever conclusions we draw - as opposed to them being dictated what topics they must research, and what theories they have to confirm through their research, before they even start researching.
...and if they do not complain about that, then they're complaining about peer-reviews ruining hundreds of highly promising research projects, delaying their publication by 8-10 years and similar...
(So much about 'scientific' work of honourable academics having PhDs, and their peer-reviews.)
"at least ‘partially’ caused by hopelessly insufficient supply of surface-to-air missiles by ‘the West’)"
The conflict shows that modern US/Russian SAMs have huge problems with downing things like Iskanders and ATACAMs.
See recent Patriot launches near Kiev in "Saudi MLRS" style:
https://t.me/anna_news/80292
If you use SAMs this way, the whole NATO stock will not be enough.
This conflict is foremost showing that all the idiots in charge of 'the West' - combined - can't get their fucking jobs done.
If they would have a trace of idea about how to do it, they would've powered up the industry already back in 2022.
Or are you going to explain me, that a country with (originally) the 'defence' budget of Spain can outspend the entire NATO?
Having the luxury to make a choice between several sources, I clearly prefer to stay with the 'unprofessional' Sarcastosaurus known as Tom Cooper.
BTW I love that type Orwell speak.