The Directors of CIA and MI6 are nominated for their positions by politicians. They are not career professionals in this field, chosen for their skill or achievements, just administrators. I don't know about the Brit but the American will be out after November.
No person in such job is above politics. The question is how they conduct it, what their political aims are etc. in this context the question is whether they are operating on behalde or against their political appointers.
Thanks for the analysis. I really hope your stomach doesnt itch as much as your little toe, that would be painful I guess. Anyway, your analysis is sound. However, there is one alternative. They are sending up trail balloons to see the reaction and prepare for some policy changes. According to Norwegian mainstream news Starmer and Biden is meeting today to discuss these issues, and a change of policy is in the air. In that case this is simply lading the groundwork. This doesnt invaliditet your analysis, it is just a different hypothesis. But one thing is clear to me. This is a message I believe they have said before. This is their interpretation. And while they dont decide on this they want some policy changes.
Yup. Though, and even if: for this winter campaign... it's already too late.
The PSU and the ZSU are still critically short on SAMs, still short on artillery ammunition, and meanwhile also short on spares for all the military vehicles made in Germany, too...
Yes; we cannot hope Ukraine will get through unscathed. We can only, unfortunately, hope that through lack of maintenance and strikes, Russia will experience more of an energy crisis. I do expect more heating systems in Russia to fail this winter, and frankly, *everyone* needs this to happen.
It is also interesting how Ukraine's Chief of Intelligence Kyrylo Budanov himself utilises internet to sow confusion. Some of his statements are correct, others aren't, some are vague, others concrete. Literally Chief of Intelligence is using himself as a misinformation tool which I find fascinating.
Must make it hard for Russians to figure out what Ukrainians are doing.
A.) Most air defences lack range to hit UMP launching Su-24/-34 let alone Kh22/101 launching T-22M/-95/-160.
B.) Most of the Flankers have been pulled back to safer airbases but still have range to hit frontline.
It seems to my uninformed mind that Ukraine needs following capabilities
A.) Reliable long range strike to smash aircraft and support infrastructure on the ground (long range AGN-158 versions).
B.) The really hard bit - either ultra long range BVRAAM ala Meteor (not integrated on F-16) or stealthy networked interceptors that can infiltrate Russian airspace and splat inbound Sukhois (F-35).
The Saab Gripen can carry Meteors which might be why there are still rumblings about Sweden transferring some to Ukraine,. Yesterday's announcement of 200m Euros of Gripen spares being put aside for Ukraine is just the latest hint. But it will take years.
So much time has been lost already.
Ukraine needs one allied leader to take the initiative and push, pull, shove everyone else into action.
In my country, the main intelligence agency is being pollitically used again. This government reverted also the name of it to the one was used in the 70s through the 20nds, were few people know the intelligence people work for. Is proved that some of them mounted a parallel intelligence system but the justice never could found who was receiving all the intelligence that was collected.
So, if two of the major agencies of the world are not being heard by their own governments, what is happening at the decision levels? For whom the data is everyday collected? How more time it takes to people having the real picture of the situation to start thinking about shaping the reallity without interference of lackluster and mediocre political bosses?
The Iranian missile delivery is really a test of how serious/sincere the West is about "escalation."
This is a clear escalation by Russia and Iran, since Iran will be able to provide Moscow more than just 200. But if the West fails to allow deeper strikes into Russia, it shows that only Russia is allowed to escalate.
The West needs to have an End Game for this conflict, not simply always patting itself on the back, and saying: "look, we again avoided Nuclear Combat toe to toe with the Russkies!"
It not about Iran and North Korea, but China. Without it's silent agreement, they would not sent arms to Russia. Also, the war will be over without China supporting Russia with (winter) clothes, chips, spare parts, etc. So, it's China which prolong this war, because the war weakens it's main opponents - Russia and the West. (Yes, Russia and China are opponents and always were opponents, never real friends. Although Putin and Xi Jinping tries to make another impression.)
So, something to End Game must be something fast and decisive, like direct military involvement, or sending 1000 Bradleys and 500 Abrams etc so as Russia and China has no time to counter react. That where West fails miserably with it's limited and slowly growing support.
You "hit the nail on the head" and drove it all the way in. China China China China. The actor often ignored in this whole mess. More pressure on China = faster end to the war
I just worry the West is not able to more pressure to China without hurting mutual trade significantly - and that would have big impact on the West and all the world economy. I.e some Cold War II.
Thanks, Tom. Your “itchy little toe” has a knack of finding truths so it’s always worth a listen. It’s interesting with the changes to government on both sides of the Atlantic that the intelligence chiefs feel that they have to remind their masters of the seriousness of the threat. I wonder too if this is an oblique way of reminding Russia that the professionals in the room have not yet given up?
....even more so because people like Burns and Moore are more often communicating with people like Bortnikov and Kostyukov (FSB and GRU, respectivelly), than Biden is communicating with Pudding...
[ISW] The German-based Kiel Institute for the World Economy published a report on September 9 warning that Russia has significantly increased its defense industrial base (DIB) capabilities since 2022 and that depleting weapons and equipment stockpiles may not significantly impact future Russian DIB production. The Kiel Institute reported that between the final quarter of 2022 and the second quarter of 2024, Russia increased tank production by 215 percent from 123 to 387 per quarter; armored vehicle production by 141 percent from 585 to 1,409 per quarter; artillery gun production by 149 percent from 45 to 112 per quarter; short-range air defense systems by 200 percent from nine to 38 per quarter; medium- and long-range air defense systems by 100 percent from six to 12 per quarter; and Lancet loitering munitions by 475 percent from 93 to 535 per quarter. The Kiel Institute caveated these statistics with the fact that 80 percent of Russian armored vehicle and tank production thus far has been a result of retrofitting existing tank hulls from pre-existing stockpiles rather than producing new vehicles, but warned that Russian armored vehicle production may not significantly decrease when Russia's existing stockpiles run out. The Kiel Institute assessed that Russia's armored vehicle production rate will likely decrease beginning in 2026 as Russia burns through its Soviet-era stockpiles but that Russia will likely open new production lines in the coming years to prepare to mitigate that effect. The Kiel Institute estimated that Russia will likely produce 350 modern tanks per year after 2026 even if Russia does not open additional production lines. The Kiel Institute also warned that Russia is working to increase domestic production of "rear systems" such as artillery and air defense and reduce its reliance on pre-existing stockpiles of such systems. The Kiel Institute also credited North Korean ammunition provisions with giving Russia a "strong oversupply" of artillery ammunition and reported that Russian forces are firing 10,000 shells per day.
You do realise that, like RUSI's report earlier this year, they had to use official data from a certain government renowned for manipulating media narratives in its own interest? It all has to be 'caveated'. For example, there are field reports from Russian troops and from Ukrainian observation that the North Korean munitions are inaccurate and often misfire. And that's true for much of the other munitions Russia has bought.
I do wonder why these think-tanks produce such glossy, apparently authoritative reports only to have the fine detail picked apart. If they did the picking apart themselves, it would add to their credibility, and their reports would actually be useful, but they don't.
Thanks Tom for put an eye on a very important issue, IMHO, as Intelligence is.
Very serious that both Chiefs, political nominees or not, are pointing to something I see is obvious in your writings, but not so for the majority of people feeding on biased Media.
Ever since a new package was approved of 60 bils. for the year, I was expecting that things start moving. And that would be at least 1 bil. a week (I am half joking, since I know that majority of those 60 bils. is bulshit funds and not actiallly military assistance).
But that would be like conservative approach. In realiry knowing upcoming elecions issue, one would expect at least double the speed. But in actual fact it was and is somethng like 1 bil. a month instead. And then administration loooks for a way to prolong 5 bils. of approved funds, that would expire by 30th of Sep. Not to use those powers, but to prolong them!?
And then a few signs here and there, multiple "peace" plans rumored, and one of them supposedly should be coming from Germany. And then their talks of cutting assistance for next year. And delays with using interest from frozen assets to buy weapons. And then France mentioning they will use those to buy weapons from themselves (not UA to decide). And then frozen talks about the usafe of assets themselves.
Well, all this and other things, giving a feeling that the silent desicion to "manage" UA willingness for ceding its plans for "just peace", was taken long ago. And it is not Trump or Harris that UA should be afraid of, but it is already happening and it is a consensus of major powers, but also a behind the scenes consensus.
So yes, I believe there would be a lot more PR by West, with less action on the background. Like for example declaring "you can hit ru targets" and then giving 20 to 50 means for that. Not disclosing a number, because of secrecy. "For UA own benefit".
The US and British foreign ministers, Antony Blinken and David Lammy, have just arrived in kyiv. Isn't this simply a way of preparing the announcements they will make there? In any case, I am very curious about what they will say.
Look, anyone with an International Relations degree from a university that thinks it matters (I came out of Berkeley) is at this point 100% aware that the International Order is off the rails.
They also know that decrepit, oligarch-enslaved political hacks are the reason. But we're all trapped, because nearly everyone in the West is a coward addicted to hope.
And the big almighty professional institutions are stuck, the "facts" and "science" they're supposed to pretend are ironclad infested with ideological presumptions that render our insights as broken as the KGBs circa 1989.
So here those of us with a ton of knowledge but no "official" resume, trying to warn everyone that something is rotten in Denmark (sorry about that expression, Danes). It's like being Greta Thunberg or Jeff Goldblum's character in Independence Day, only the powers-that-be are determined to ignore us because, well, Don't Look Up was a documentary.
Here we are, offering pro-level insights for free, getting things right more than them, mainly because we're not bound to the same institutional paradigm. What a weird world.
Sometimes I really think I should start emailing foreign intel agencies and see if any are up for paying. Surely *someone* out there sees where this is all heading and wants to organize a structural, institutional response...
I dunno, though. Everyone I knew in academia admitted they were faking it until they made it. So maybe everyone's a con artist.
I learned from reading Barbara Tuchman's "Guns of August" and "The Proud Tower" back in the 1960s that people in high places often have no clue. My time as an infantry officer in Vietnam only reinforced my belief. Maybe the dynamics have changed-I don't really think so-but the bottom line hasn't.
I have a hard time believing that Burns does anything without the approval of the "Trio Fantasticus." He could always resign and take to the media if he has something to get off his chest. What I hope (but doubt) is that the administration is finally wising up and trying to cobble a serious and effective policy before they leave, maybe to clear the way for Harris to have a coherent plan or put up a marker against Trump.
The Directors of CIA and MI6 are nominated for their positions by politicians. They are not career professionals in this field, chosen for their skill or achievements, just administrators. I don't know about the Brit but the American will be out after November.
Yes, and Chief of the SIS ('C') is appointed by the Foreign Secretary. And, indeed, Moore is a diplomat by profession.
Still: neither is a decision-maker.
....and considering Moore's professional experience, in combination with his current position: all the more reasons to get worried.
I am just saying their are not above the politics, since they owe their positions to politicians.
Of course they are not. Again: they are advisors. No decision-makers.
No person in such job is above politics. The question is how they conduct it, what their political aims are etc. in this context the question is whether they are operating on behalde or against their political appointers.
Thanks for the analysis. I really hope your stomach doesnt itch as much as your little toe, that would be painful I guess. Anyway, your analysis is sound. However, there is one alternative. They are sending up trail balloons to see the reaction and prepare for some policy changes. According to Norwegian mainstream news Starmer and Biden is meeting today to discuss these issues, and a change of policy is in the air. In that case this is simply lading the groundwork. This doesnt invaliditet your analysis, it is just a different hypothesis. But one thing is clear to me. This is a message I believe they have said before. This is their interpretation. And while they dont decide on this they want some policy changes.
Can only hope that this time they start to wake up.
Yup. Though, and even if: for this winter campaign... it's already too late.
The PSU and the ZSU are still critically short on SAMs, still short on artillery ammunition, and meanwhile also short on spares for all the military vehicles made in Germany, too...
Yes; we cannot hope Ukraine will get through unscathed. We can only, unfortunately, hope that through lack of maintenance and strikes, Russia will experience more of an energy crisis. I do expect more heating systems in Russia to fail this winter, and frankly, *everyone* needs this to happen.
Tom, Again well said, even though it hurts....
It is also interesting how Ukraine's Chief of Intelligence Kyrylo Budanov himself utilises internet to sow confusion. Some of his statements are correct, others aren't, some are vague, others concrete. Literally Chief of Intelligence is using himself as a misinformation tool which I find fascinating.
Must make it hard for Russians to figure out what Ukrainians are doing.
With regards to Ukrainain air defence.
Given
A.) Most air defences lack range to hit UMP launching Su-24/-34 let alone Kh22/101 launching T-22M/-95/-160.
B.) Most of the Flankers have been pulled back to safer airbases but still have range to hit frontline.
It seems to my uninformed mind that Ukraine needs following capabilities
A.) Reliable long range strike to smash aircraft and support infrastructure on the ground (long range AGN-158 versions).
B.) The really hard bit - either ultra long range BVRAAM ala Meteor (not integrated on F-16) or stealthy networked interceptors that can infiltrate Russian airspace and splat inbound Sukhois (F-35).
I doubt west will provide either.
The Saab Gripen can carry Meteors which might be why there are still rumblings about Sweden transferring some to Ukraine,. Yesterday's announcement of 200m Euros of Gripen spares being put aside for Ukraine is just the latest hint. But it will take years.
So much time has been lost already.
Ukraine needs one allied leader to take the initiative and push, pull, shove everyone else into action.
In my country, the main intelligence agency is being pollitically used again. This government reverted also the name of it to the one was used in the 70s through the 20nds, were few people know the intelligence people work for. Is proved that some of them mounted a parallel intelligence system but the justice never could found who was receiving all the intelligence that was collected.
So, if two of the major agencies of the world are not being heard by their own governments, what is happening at the decision levels? For whom the data is everyday collected? How more time it takes to people having the real picture of the situation to start thinking about shaping the reallity without interference of lackluster and mediocre political bosses?
Troublesome.
The Iranian missile delivery is really a test of how serious/sincere the West is about "escalation."
This is a clear escalation by Russia and Iran, since Iran will be able to provide Moscow more than just 200. But if the West fails to allow deeper strikes into Russia, it shows that only Russia is allowed to escalate.
The West needs to have an End Game for this conflict, not simply always patting itself on the back, and saying: "look, we again avoided Nuclear Combat toe to toe with the Russkies!"
But so far we haven't seen one...
The West has already imposed sanctions against Iran...
Iran is sanctioned for decades and was able to develop high-tech arms. Guess why? Because of China. So, they are laughing to western sanctions.
Wrong country, right neighbourhood. Because of North Korea.
The escalation has to be against RUSSIA, not Iran...
It not about Iran and North Korea, but China. Without it's silent agreement, they would not sent arms to Russia. Also, the war will be over without China supporting Russia with (winter) clothes, chips, spare parts, etc. So, it's China which prolong this war, because the war weakens it's main opponents - Russia and the West. (Yes, Russia and China are opponents and always were opponents, never real friends. Although Putin and Xi Jinping tries to make another impression.)
So, something to End Game must be something fast and decisive, like direct military involvement, or sending 1000 Bradleys and 500 Abrams etc so as Russia and China has no time to counter react. That where West fails miserably with it's limited and slowly growing support.
You "hit the nail on the head" and drove it all the way in. China China China China. The actor often ignored in this whole mess. More pressure on China = faster end to the war
I just worry the West is not able to more pressure to China without hurting mutual trade significantly - and that would have big impact on the West and all the world economy. I.e some Cold War II.
Endgame-related: https://xxtomcooperxx.substack.com/p/nato-or-nuke-ukraines-only-options/comment/67838376
Thanks, Tom. Your “itchy little toe” has a knack of finding truths so it’s always worth a listen. It’s interesting with the changes to government on both sides of the Atlantic that the intelligence chiefs feel that they have to remind their masters of the seriousness of the threat. I wonder too if this is an oblique way of reminding Russia that the professionals in the room have not yet given up?
Good question.
....even more so because people like Burns and Moore are more often communicating with people like Bortnikov and Kostyukov (FSB and GRU, respectivelly), than Biden is communicating with Pudding...
[ISW] The German-based Kiel Institute for the World Economy published a report on September 9 warning that Russia has significantly increased its defense industrial base (DIB) capabilities since 2022 and that depleting weapons and equipment stockpiles may not significantly impact future Russian DIB production. The Kiel Institute reported that between the final quarter of 2022 and the second quarter of 2024, Russia increased tank production by 215 percent from 123 to 387 per quarter; armored vehicle production by 141 percent from 585 to 1,409 per quarter; artillery gun production by 149 percent from 45 to 112 per quarter; short-range air defense systems by 200 percent from nine to 38 per quarter; medium- and long-range air defense systems by 100 percent from six to 12 per quarter; and Lancet loitering munitions by 475 percent from 93 to 535 per quarter. The Kiel Institute caveated these statistics with the fact that 80 percent of Russian armored vehicle and tank production thus far has been a result of retrofitting existing tank hulls from pre-existing stockpiles rather than producing new vehicles, but warned that Russian armored vehicle production may not significantly decrease when Russia's existing stockpiles run out. The Kiel Institute assessed that Russia's armored vehicle production rate will likely decrease beginning in 2026 as Russia burns through its Soviet-era stockpiles but that Russia will likely open new production lines in the coming years to prepare to mitigate that effect. The Kiel Institute estimated that Russia will likely produce 350 modern tanks per year after 2026 even if Russia does not open additional production lines. The Kiel Institute also warned that Russia is working to increase domestic production of "rear systems" such as artillery and air defense and reduce its reliance on pre-existing stockpiles of such systems. The Kiel Institute also credited North Korean ammunition provisions with giving Russia a "strong oversupply" of artillery ammunition and reported that Russian forces are firing 10,000 shells per day.
You do realise that, like RUSI's report earlier this year, they had to use official data from a certain government renowned for manipulating media narratives in its own interest? It all has to be 'caveated'. For example, there are field reports from Russian troops and from Ukrainian observation that the North Korean munitions are inaccurate and often misfire. And that's true for much of the other munitions Russia has bought.
I do wonder why these think-tanks produce such glossy, apparently authoritative reports only to have the fine detail picked apart. If they did the picking apart themselves, it would add to their credibility, and their reports would actually be useful, but they don't.
Thanks Tom for put an eye on a very important issue, IMHO, as Intelligence is.
Very serious that both Chiefs, political nominees or not, are pointing to something I see is obvious in your writings, but not so for the majority of people feeding on biased Media.
Fingers crossed for brave Ukraine.
Ever since a new package was approved of 60 bils. for the year, I was expecting that things start moving. And that would be at least 1 bil. a week (I am half joking, since I know that majority of those 60 bils. is bulshit funds and not actiallly military assistance).
But that would be like conservative approach. In realiry knowing upcoming elecions issue, one would expect at least double the speed. But in actual fact it was and is somethng like 1 bil. a month instead. And then administration loooks for a way to prolong 5 bils. of approved funds, that would expire by 30th of Sep. Not to use those powers, but to prolong them!?
And then a few signs here and there, multiple "peace" plans rumored, and one of them supposedly should be coming from Germany. And then their talks of cutting assistance for next year. And delays with using interest from frozen assets to buy weapons. And then France mentioning they will use those to buy weapons from themselves (not UA to decide). And then frozen talks about the usafe of assets themselves.
Well, all this and other things, giving a feeling that the silent desicion to "manage" UA willingness for ceding its plans for "just peace", was taken long ago. And it is not Trump or Harris that UA should be afraid of, but it is already happening and it is a consensus of major powers, but also a behind the scenes consensus.
So yes, I believe there would be a lot more PR by West, with less action on the background. Like for example declaring "you can hit ru targets" and then giving 20 to 50 means for that. Not disclosing a number, because of secrecy. "For UA own benefit".
The US and British foreign ministers, Antony Blinken and David Lammy, have just arrived in kyiv. Isn't this simply a way of preparing the announcements they will make there? In any case, I am very curious about what they will say.
Nope, it is not. If so, then Burns and Moore would visit Kyiv.
The Russian army broke through the Ukrainian positions in Kursk region https://meduza.io/news/2024/09/11/rossiyskie-voyska-nachali-kontrataki-krupnymi-silami-k-zapadu-ot-sudzhi
Any update on this?
No
ISW published a long update and a map https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-11-2024
From your link "“are advancing in the areas of Apanasovka and Martynovka.”
From Tass on 15th August "The Russian Armed Forces have cleared Martynovka in the borderline region of Kursk of Ukrainian troops,"
It is hard to know where the truth is.
So they claim. More about this in the morning.
Well, they are asking for a ceasefire in Gaza like it's actually going to happen. So we know they are political outsiders.
Contrary to zombie idiots, they are aware of consequences. Therefore, they are advising an immediate cease-fire.
....and are ignored, as usually.
I agree with your take.
Look, anyone with an International Relations degree from a university that thinks it matters (I came out of Berkeley) is at this point 100% aware that the International Order is off the rails.
They also know that decrepit, oligarch-enslaved political hacks are the reason. But we're all trapped, because nearly everyone in the West is a coward addicted to hope.
And the big almighty professional institutions are stuck, the "facts" and "science" they're supposed to pretend are ironclad infested with ideological presumptions that render our insights as broken as the KGBs circa 1989.
So here those of us with a ton of knowledge but no "official" resume, trying to warn everyone that something is rotten in Denmark (sorry about that expression, Danes). It's like being Greta Thunberg or Jeff Goldblum's character in Independence Day, only the powers-that-be are determined to ignore us because, well, Don't Look Up was a documentary.
Here we are, offering pro-level insights for free, getting things right more than them, mainly because we're not bound to the same institutional paradigm. What a weird world.
Sometimes I really think I should start emailing foreign intel agencies and see if any are up for paying. Surely *someone* out there sees where this is all heading and wants to organize a structural, institutional response...
I dunno, though. Everyone I knew in academia admitted they were faking it until they made it. So maybe everyone's a con artist.
I learned from reading Barbara Tuchman's "Guns of August" and "The Proud Tower" back in the 1960s that people in high places often have no clue. My time as an infantry officer in Vietnam only reinforced my belief. Maybe the dynamics have changed-I don't really think so-but the bottom line hasn't.
I have a hard time believing that Burns does anything without the approval of the "Trio Fantasticus." He could always resign and take to the media if he has something to get off his chest. What I hope (but doubt) is that the administration is finally wising up and trying to cobble a serious and effective policy before they leave, maybe to clear the way for Harris to have a coherent plan or put up a marker against Trump.