Agreed, but who gave trump the moniker Agent Krasnov? It does a disservice to General Krasnov who fought against Russian Communism until they executed him.
Every piss poor corner of the world that struggles to feed its own population still seems to have an ample supply of RPG-7s. As soon as somebody finances a 3D printer and some componentes ordered from Alibaba, people can turn the RPGs into guided weapons with a range of several kilometers. And these still pack enough punch to kill a lightly armored vehicle or even an MBT when it gets hit from the right angle. Which now is entirely possible because - well - guided weapon. Maybe it takes three or four of them to kill a hard target but that still is a cheap way to turn multi million dollar equipment into pieces of junk. And pray that you didn't leave the hangar door open when you parked your super stealthy F-35 last night.
I just don't get how our military experts can still sleep at night when they see the effects of these cheap weapons in Ukraine and Yemen. And I would expect that even COIN operations will suffer from this in the future as well.
Not only that. This emphasis on 'real soldiers' is entirely obsolete. As an army you need gamer boys and girls for your drone teams. The anti diversity mentality is harmful. By the way, this investment in the F-35, was it really necessary? And what if buyers start to pull out of the program because they consider the US as not reliable and trustworthy anymore? The US defence system is in deep trouble.
But of course. Diversity works. Square jawed white hefty blokes also have their role to play. However, once you create the impression that those are the only guys you need, you end up with an army that is not future proof.
Nice summary, I can only add it's almost universal in West, not only US.
I was recently present at the panel conference "Future of UAVs in Slovak Armed Forces" and I can share some thoughts, as it was public event, nothing classified.
* People there (Armed forces representatives from multiple branches) clearly meant well, studied UA theater of operations, etc.
* Their conclusions were strange, basically highest priority was given to High-end recce drones in multiple categories (from small quads to bigger plane types), always requiring multi-spectral sensors, bespoke milspec control terminals, etc.
* When strike drones were discussed, those were again high-end systems equivalent of IAI Harop
* Given the specs and price estimations, requested number were very small, from ~500 complete systems in the lowest price categories (small recce quads) to ~50 of the most expensive stuff
* No requirement was raised for potential mass production of cheapest possible FPV drones, no vision for counter-drone training of infantry, training centers for future drone pilots, etc.
For me this is understandable to a certain degree. Drone technology is evolving so fast, that a todays "state of the art" drone can be obsolete tomorrow. So each politician (and top military is normally appointed by politicians) is hesitating to spend money on stockpiling such weapons. Even if only small and cheap, purchasing for example 50.000 drones at UKR manufacturing prices mentioned by Tom (500$) this would be 25 Mio.
Quite a sum for a country like Slovakia and politicians from opposition would gladly accuse government for wasting money if few years later those drones are obosolete and were never used.
Our goverment is a bunch of corrupt incompetents there is no question about that.
Of course, buying and stockpiling 50K drones ready to be used would be stupid (unless we are about to get attacked really soon...).
Smart thing would be to identify bottlenecks in manufacturing and manufacturing/stockpiling things which are unlikely to get obsolete very soon, like:
* Frames
* Propulsion system
* FC stacks
Then you would have deep magazine of pre-made weapons which you need to finish by fitting appropriate video-link, control-link and battery.
As those are the things which can either get a lot better/efficient in time (in case of batteries) or are target of jamming efforts and therefore need to be modular (video/rc links), you wouldn't unnecessary stockpile them in advance, just the necessary amount.
It's still MUCH easier and cheaper to add those components, then to manufacture FPV drone from scratch, especially when you already have good, proven platform with performance you can rely on.
I recommend to try flying such drone assembled from sticks nailed together -> it works but only as a stunt, with completely unusable PID profile, horrible vibrations, etc.
Even if it would work and you would accept the penalty in weight and aerodynamic efficiency, manually crafting those things is NOT an efficient way to manufacture them - automated factory churning out modern designs with minimal human supervision is much more efficient and produces product of consistent quality, likely cheaper as well.
Propulsion system consists of 4 BLDC motors, 4-in-1 ESC board, battery and propellers.
As I already explained, motors are very simple pieces, basically good outrunner in correct size manufactured 10 years ago would be just as good today and would still be able to reap benefits from ESC firmware updates.
Propellers are the same shape and profile as those used on RC planes 20-30y ago.
FCs differ mainly in their main processing unit, with the most common used (STM32F405) launched 14 years ago and still totally sufficient for newest FC firmware (and it will stay like this for considerable time).
Batteries slowly evolve and 21700 li-on cells used for making packs gain charge and max current capacity, but it's actually very slow process and good cells from 2022 are still very good now (just not the absolute best).
The whole video link (micro analog camera working with CVBS signal, matching analog transmitter and receiver) are meanwhile tech from the era of analog television (it even looks so in the FPV googles), there is no fundamental advantage there for very, very long time...
Similar drones which fly today were totally possible to build 5y ago, the only problem was maybe the RC-control link.
There is truly nothing revolutionary, no single component which magically made FPV drones viable in 2022 and essential from 2023 till now, it's just sum of all parts, with fundamental pieces provided by advances in open-source firmware projects (I provided a brief overview in another comment here).
the way you describe it could be described everything in this world: AK47 and a spear are also made of wood and iron. so, nothing very special. cannonball and modern ammo for a Cesar - a peace of iron and some powder...
FPV segment is most dynamic between mil segments. active fight between EWS and FPV is in full swing. antennas, controllers combined with small processors and board comps, broadband VTX, dynamic freq changers - cmon, really nothing new?
Not a sign of standardized drones at frontlines for ages...
I disagree - while every human invention obviously benefits from previous inventions/discoveries, in this case it's very different.
It's not merely inspiration, it's directly using tens of thousands of hours worth of combined development effort -> compare what it took to develop Betaflight + ELRS + Bluejay to tweaking frequency of control link, or even custom frequency hopping VTX, it's not really comparable.
I'm not in contact with frontline users anymore, so maybe it really changed drastically recently but when I was involved more then year ago, absolute majority of FPV drones were nothing special at all, pretty much normal FPV, with custom ELRS freq/antenna, and bit odd analog VTX frequency, that was it (btw, requirements from International Drone Coalition for 7/8/10" drones published in June 2024 were exactly like that) - it makes sense when price is number one criteria.
Again I'm not arguing, that much more advanced solutions are not actively developed/tried (AI recognition modules, completely custom RC protocols not based on ELRS, etc.), but in terms of impact, what percentage of fpv strike drone is like that ?
Another thing which I dislike (and it's not only me) is how much smoke & mirrors is involved anytime FPV drones in UA theater are discussed, it's always "Western companies are hopeless and can't make good FPV drones", "It's much better to just donate money to UA companies" and "We can't tell you why, but trust us, we know everything better" - every video of UA social media personalities (like Strenenko) is exactly like that.
Frankly it's bit disrespectful to anybody who actually is knowledgeable about FPV drones and pokes little bit deeper, sees photos/videos of drones in action, etc.
Thank you Ben. Regarding the war in Ukraine, I completely agree with you. US policy was cowardly from the very beginning, and with the advent of Trump it has become "ostrich-like" even in relation to its own security and image. America has shown that it is not capable of an intensive non-nuclear land conflict overseas, even if it affects its interests - the lack of readiness is complete, starting with conventional ammunition.
One side of the problem is a strong inertia/systemic resistance for changes.
Other side of the problem is, that it's a rapidly changing environment with lot of hype, and no sane person would think that the current status is already mature enough to serve as a starting point for development.
Just some examples: Bayraktar - was nice at the beginning, but by recent analysis it always did more as an observation-, than a weapon-platform. And by now, it's more or less obsolote in any function.
Cheap FPV and commercial drones - they could shine for some time, but even the first wave of EW countermeasures phased them out 'long' ago, and while there are still some cheap components in the current drones, the electronics itself is no longer the same cheap stuff anymore...
Cheap glide bombs - was a real pain in the a*ss but suddenly seems to be solved. There will be a next iteration without a doubt, but those will be far less cheap already ...
Latest iteration of budget cruise things - a few dozen or so was launched against Moscow yesterday, with what result?
If the original doctrine does not contain such slow, man-o-man style conflicts of this scale, then the lesson of drones is not yet obvious. It's clear that things will change, but it's not yet clear that by how much and in what direction exactly.
And, you know - till things clears up a modern 155 can still deliver 100+ kg 'stuff' within 30km range in 3-5 min, with very low EW sensitivity. And then walk away.
* Cheap FPV drones from commercial components -> they are definitely not phased out and they still use the same fundamental open-source systems.
Yes, control frequencies change all the time, optical-link instead of radio link was introduced, but nothing fundamental changed, no large-scale production of some bespoke electronics was established, etc.
Russians for example bragged about their "un-jammable" new control link for FPV drones, all they did was recompiling the ELRS firmware for different control frequency (standard ones are 868/915mhz and 2.4ghz) and single company was producing larger antennas for that frequency.
* Modern 155 certainly can't deliver 100kg of explosive, much less to 30km range. Standard 155mm shell weighs ~40kg and contains just 6.5kg of explosive filler.
10" FPV drone can deliver 3kg of explosive filler to ~20km distance and precisely strike moving target or slip through opening in hardened fixed target, both things practically impossible to do with 155mm artillery piece.
Of course there are many situations where artillery will be much more useful then FPV drone as well.
10" FPV drone can deliver 3kg of explosive filler to ~20km distance and precisely strike moving target or slip through opening in hardened fixed target
__________
10" carries up to 5kg to 30+km or 6,5 - to 15+km
there is almost no targets in 20 km zone, both parties try to keep their vehicles at 30+
One another thing which comes to my mind when thinking about "gamechanger" cheap FPV drones -> I think this is the first weapon in the history of warfare where lion-share of development was done via voluntary collaborative effort (aka Open-source software development).
Because those drone are not "developed" by Ukrainian companies, American companies, or even Chinese companies.
Of course for example UA companies/orgs do a lot of work but it's a bit like saying your local car performance tuner (who tunes engine ECU maps, adjusts suspension, etc.) "develops" racing cars.
Game changer innovations which enable the concept -> very maneuverable, rugged, reasonable reliable and ultra-cheap way to precisely deliver payload over considerable distance are following:
* FC Firmware -> what started as a toy project experimenting with first affordable gyro/acc board from nintendo game controllers (Wii console) morphed into cutting-edge firmware for racing drones (Betaflight), where big community of contributors is striving to achieve maximum performance for drone racing, basically translating every stick input from controller to solid, exact response of the flying craft.
This piece of puzzle is a key to enabling Multi-rotor control, whether remote or autonomous (AI guided), without working FC firmware, it wouldn't be possible to control multi-copter at all, even in manual mode.
* ESC Control firmware -> piece of code which generates control impulses for brushless electric motors. Those motors are almost comically primitive pieces, essentially couple of coils, magnets and 2 bearings... No valves, no linkages, no delicate parts at all. Without ESC firmware energizing the coils in exactly the right moment, it's a dead-weight not capable of doing anything, you can't just "connect it to power source", you absolutely need ESC running dedicated firmware.
Top ESC firmwares like bluejay or AM32 are again open-source collaborative efforts.
* RC Control link -> this used to be proprietary piece of hw/sw controlled by RC model companies (Futaba, Spektrum...), but amazing piece of open-source software called ExpressLRS changed all that.
Now we have a open-source radio-link which you can customize to operate on almost any frequency you want to, it's much longer ranged, cheaper and more efficient then closed-source proprietary offerings before it.
By the way each of those projects started before dedicated hardware was available (like I wrote, first practical community FC for multirotors used board from the Wii gaming console) and only after their success created community demand and market, (mostly Chinese) companies stepped in and started producing more dedicated hardware (cheaper, smaller, better performing...).
Almost none of the people working on those technologies are doing it for military purposes and they are quite hostile to any feature requests linked to military use (most of those are stupid btw, like demanding inertial navigation capabilities from firmware running on $40 control board...) and I can't blame them to be honest.
This is great. It demonstrates why it is so important for the US or at least the west to control and dominate the space. Waiting on the military to iterate is a losing wager. The private sector will do it faster, better. Even if it's just hobbyists.
But I would be bit hesitant to describe the whole ecosystem of Open-source software and hardware which made this possible as just hobbyist.
While it's technically true that Open-source software is often developed by contributors who are not driven by monetary compensation (though that's not the defining characteristic and many contributors in successful OS projects are very well compensated for their OS work), it carries this unfortunate connotation that the project is somehow more primitive, amateurish, of lesser quality, etc...
Meanwhile OS projects like linux operating system (server side, not talking about desktop) won long time ago as the best performing and most secure in their category and underpin our information age civilization as we know it.
Same thing with current advances in generative AI which is transforming the way how we work and access knowledge, frontier of research there is based on Open-Source software collaboration.
Frankly, at this point where we don't know on whose side the US would enter a war, or whether it might attack its former allies, it feels like a relief. Unless they plan to nuke Europe or something.
Excellent observations with knowledgeable basis. Keep speaking. We need your voice. I shared it with Adam Kinzinger. A fellow pilot. I flew F4s in Vietnam.
Article today at Haaretz on an IDF tender for bids to produce 5000 FPV 'suicide' drones.
One condition is in country production facilities due to the international sanctions on arms sales to Israel because of its conduct in Gaza.
This being complicated by other conditions in the tender specifying servo motors from a Taiwanese company, propellers from a Chinese company, and controllers from yet another Chinese company.
This is apparently an attempt to 'catch up' with the developments in drone warfare due to the conflict in Ukraine.
Ironic in that it was Israeli drone technology that enabled Azerbaijan to defeat Armenia in 2020 and an article some time ago noted that in 2020 Israel was using reconnaissance drones to maintain 24/7 surveillance of Gaza.
This does explain in part, though why 'the most humanitarian army in the world' was using 155mm artillery salvos and high capacity bombs instead of precision drone strikes to take out rocket launchers in Gaza even though using bombs and artillery produced significant 'collateral' damage. Although even had the IDF had numbers of cheap FPV drones available that lack of 'collateral' damage might still have precluded their use. And then, when 155mm artillery projectiles and high capacity bombs are free for the asking, why spend money on drones?
Well, considering the tenor of previous comments I have made here, I presume you are either relatively new or missed those previous comments.
Shall we say that Zionists appear to have learned their lessons from the previous masters of propaganda and mass exterminations in re-defining others as untermensch and in the ways in which they can be eliminated en mass while proclaiming to be acting in 'self-defence...'
Sadly I see far too many in comment sections in other sites who have fully embraced that propaganda...
However, this dates back for decades if not to the first Zionist violence in Palestine.
In Israel's Central District in 1956 due to tensions with Jordan the IDF announced a curfew for Israeli-Arab villages between 5PM and 6AM. Shoot to kill anyone seen on the streets during the curfew. At Kafr Qasim workers who were in the fields were not all informed of the new hours. This lead to the killing of nineteen men, six women, ten teenage boys (age 14–17), six girls (age 12–15), and seven young boys (age 8–13) as they returned to their village at teh end of the day.
In October of 2004 Iman Darweesh Al Hams - a 13 year old girl - crossed the 'shoot to kill' line of an IDF outpost in Rafah - the captain in command ordered his troops to shoot her even though some did protest. As she lay wounded the captain walked up to her and fired 2 bullets into her head - as he was leaving her body he turned and emptied his magazine into her body. He was tried for "illegal use of his weapon, conduct unbecoming an officer and perverting the course of justice by an Israeli military court but was found not guilty" and received compensation for his expenses and time in jail during the trial. After his trial the captain continued his service eventually being promoted to the rank of major.
So eliminating future generations of terrorists is a long standing practice...
The end of February Rand article covers nine different scenarios of protracted conflicts between China and US - it is not the conclusion, which is shocking (that we know - USA cannot win a protracted war w a near peer adversary...not like ín case of the expeditionary wars US army was used to in the last 40 yrs) one of the scenarios do have a year captured - it is 2028 - five years ago the date was 2034 - well if someone has a dilemma then it is totally fine - China is getting ín the 85-90% of US - they have no global presence and force projection capabilites - but they have Russia, North Korea and Iran with low end - means cheap but adequate - Military industry and also human resources over 3M without China - which military resources they can commit - without fear of adverse public reactions - this is the reason that US must close the Ukrainian war for good...
Well like IED make a lot of damage, becouse no body see what hapen in SA or rodhesia. And after some companies make mrap vehicles, in the future, after few sed backs with the blood on someone's son. Some make dapv...drone atack protected vehicles, or warever...
Thanks Ben for the warning. An example of the whole drone awareness problem, if the reports were correct, is the attempted assassination last summer. The perpetrator had a drone, but the Secret Service didn't. If they did, they would have seen the perp on the roof. One wonders if they have the capability now.
"Current US foreign policy seems shockingly ignorant to this eventuality"
Current US Federal policy is shockingly ignorant. Of everything - except grabbing money and power, where it is merely moderately incompetent.
Just to clarify, right now there is no consistent 'US-whatever-policy' at all.
On SCDs? None.
The US military will realise its mistake on SCDs during the invasion of Greenland. Or Panama. Or maybe Canada.
Who knows where - or why.
But who will really be surprised if Agent Krasnov tries an invasion ?
Agreed, but who gave trump the moniker Agent Krasnov? It does a disservice to General Krasnov who fought against Russian Communism until they executed him.
The KGB gave him the cover name Krasnov back in the 1987.
Right. "Agent Orange" has a number of subtle implications instead...
Agent Philby would’ve been appropriate.
Every piss poor corner of the world that struggles to feed its own population still seems to have an ample supply of RPG-7s. As soon as somebody finances a 3D printer and some componentes ordered from Alibaba, people can turn the RPGs into guided weapons with a range of several kilometers. And these still pack enough punch to kill a lightly armored vehicle or even an MBT when it gets hit from the right angle. Which now is entirely possible because - well - guided weapon. Maybe it takes three or four of them to kill a hard target but that still is a cheap way to turn multi million dollar equipment into pieces of junk. And pray that you didn't leave the hangar door open when you parked your super stealthy F-35 last night.
I just don't get how our military experts can still sleep at night when they see the effects of these cheap weapons in Ukraine and Yemen. And I would expect that even COIN operations will suffer from this in the future as well.
Great points!
Even good MBTs are thinly armoured on top - easy to hit from the air...
Not only that. This emphasis on 'real soldiers' is entirely obsolete. As an army you need gamer boys and girls for your drone teams. The anti diversity mentality is harmful. By the way, this investment in the F-35, was it really necessary? And what if buyers start to pull out of the program because they consider the US as not reliable and trustworthy anymore? The US defence system is in deep trouble.
Very deep trouble.
Very deep trouble!
The technology should be in addition to, not instead of infantry.
But of course. Diversity works. Square jawed white hefty blokes also have their role to play. However, once you create the impression that those are the only guys you need, you end up with an army that is not future proof.
Nice summary, I can only add it's almost universal in West, not only US.
I was recently present at the panel conference "Future of UAVs in Slovak Armed Forces" and I can share some thoughts, as it was public event, nothing classified.
* People there (Armed forces representatives from multiple branches) clearly meant well, studied UA theater of operations, etc.
* Their conclusions were strange, basically highest priority was given to High-end recce drones in multiple categories (from small quads to bigger plane types), always requiring multi-spectral sensors, bespoke milspec control terminals, etc.
* When strike drones were discussed, those were again high-end systems equivalent of IAI Harop
* Given the specs and price estimations, requested number were very small, from ~500 complete systems in the lowest price categories (small recce quads) to ~50 of the most expensive stuff
* No requirement was raised for potential mass production of cheapest possible FPV drones, no vision for counter-drone training of infantry, training centers for future drone pilots, etc.
Useful info, thanks.
For me this is understandable to a certain degree. Drone technology is evolving so fast, that a todays "state of the art" drone can be obsolete tomorrow. So each politician (and top military is normally appointed by politicians) is hesitating to spend money on stockpiling such weapons. Even if only small and cheap, purchasing for example 50.000 drones at UKR manufacturing prices mentioned by Tom (500$) this would be 25 Mio.
Quite a sum for a country like Slovakia and politicians from opposition would gladly accuse government for wasting money if few years later those drones are obosolete and were never used.
Our goverment is a bunch of corrupt incompetents there is no question about that.
Of course, buying and stockpiling 50K drones ready to be used would be stupid (unless we are about to get attacked really soon...).
Smart thing would be to identify bottlenecks in manufacturing and manufacturing/stockpiling things which are unlikely to get obsolete very soon, like:
* Frames
* Propulsion system
* FC stacks
Then you would have deep magazine of pre-made weapons which you need to finish by fitting appropriate video-link, control-link and battery.
As those are the things which can either get a lot better/efficient in time (in case of batteries) or are target of jamming efforts and therefore need to be modular (video/rc links), you wouldn't unnecessary stockpile them in advance, just the necessary amount.
It's still MUCH easier and cheaper to add those components, then to manufacture FPV drone from scratch, especially when you already have good, proven platform with performance you can rely on.
I recommend to try flying such drone assembled from sticks nailed together -> it works but only as a stunt, with completely unusable PID profile, horrible vibrations, etc.
Even if it would work and you would accept the penalty in weight and aerodynamic efficiency, manually crafting those things is NOT an efficient way to manufacture them - automated factory churning out modern designs with minimal human supervision is much more efficient and produces product of consistent quality, likely cheaper as well.
Propulsion system consists of 4 BLDC motors, 4-in-1 ESC board, battery and propellers.
As I already explained, motors are very simple pieces, basically good outrunner in correct size manufactured 10 years ago would be just as good today and would still be able to reap benefits from ESC firmware updates.
Propellers are the same shape and profile as those used on RC planes 20-30y ago.
FCs differ mainly in their main processing unit, with the most common used (STM32F405) launched 14 years ago and still totally sufficient for newest FC firmware (and it will stay like this for considerable time).
Batteries slowly evolve and 21700 li-on cells used for making packs gain charge and max current capacity, but it's actually very slow process and good cells from 2022 are still very good now (just not the absolute best).
The whole video link (micro analog camera working with CVBS signal, matching analog transmitter and receiver) are meanwhile tech from the era of analog television (it even looks so in the FPV googles), there is no fundamental advantage there for very, very long time...
Similar drones which fly today were totally possible to build 5y ago, the only problem was maybe the RC-control link.
There is truly nothing revolutionary, no single component which magically made FPV drones viable in 2022 and essential from 2023 till now, it's just sum of all parts, with fundamental pieces provided by advances in open-source firmware projects (I provided a brief overview in another comment here).
Likewise, I wish I had time for it, it's one of the things I would like to work on the most.
I did my fair-share of low level Atmel assembly (later C) programming 15-20y ago and I loved it.
the way you describe it could be described everything in this world: AK47 and a spear are also made of wood and iron. so, nothing very special. cannonball and modern ammo for a Cesar - a peace of iron and some powder...
FPV segment is most dynamic between mil segments. active fight between EWS and FPV is in full swing. antennas, controllers combined with small processors and board comps, broadband VTX, dynamic freq changers - cmon, really nothing new?
Not a sign of standardized drones at frontlines for ages...
I disagree - while every human invention obviously benefits from previous inventions/discoveries, in this case it's very different.
It's not merely inspiration, it's directly using tens of thousands of hours worth of combined development effort -> compare what it took to develop Betaflight + ELRS + Bluejay to tweaking frequency of control link, or even custom frequency hopping VTX, it's not really comparable.
I'm not in contact with frontline users anymore, so maybe it really changed drastically recently but when I was involved more then year ago, absolute majority of FPV drones were nothing special at all, pretty much normal FPV, with custom ELRS freq/antenna, and bit odd analog VTX frequency, that was it (btw, requirements from International Drone Coalition for 7/8/10" drones published in June 2024 were exactly like that) - it makes sense when price is number one criteria.
Again I'm not arguing, that much more advanced solutions are not actively developed/tried (AI recognition modules, completely custom RC protocols not based on ELRS, etc.), but in terms of impact, what percentage of fpv strike drone is like that ?
Another thing which I dislike (and it's not only me) is how much smoke & mirrors is involved anytime FPV drones in UA theater are discussed, it's always "Western companies are hopeless and can't make good FPV drones", "It's much better to just donate money to UA companies" and "We can't tell you why, but trust us, we know everything better" - every video of UA social media personalities (like Strenenko) is exactly like that.
Frankly it's bit disrespectful to anybody who actually is knowledgeable about FPV drones and pokes little bit deeper, sees photos/videos of drones in action, etc.
Stockpiling drones is not important but stockpiling parts is, together with training.
Thank you Ben. Regarding the war in Ukraine, I completely agree with you. US policy was cowardly from the very beginning, and with the advent of Trump it has become "ostrich-like" even in relation to its own security and image. America has shown that it is not capable of an intensive non-nuclear land conflict overseas, even if it affects its interests - the lack of readiness is complete, starting with conventional ammunition.
One side of the problem is a strong inertia/systemic resistance for changes.
Other side of the problem is, that it's a rapidly changing environment with lot of hype, and no sane person would think that the current status is already mature enough to serve as a starting point for development.
Just some examples: Bayraktar - was nice at the beginning, but by recent analysis it always did more as an observation-, than a weapon-platform. And by now, it's more or less obsolote in any function.
Cheap FPV and commercial drones - they could shine for some time, but even the first wave of EW countermeasures phased them out 'long' ago, and while there are still some cheap components in the current drones, the electronics itself is no longer the same cheap stuff anymore...
Cheap glide bombs - was a real pain in the a*ss but suddenly seems to be solved. There will be a next iteration without a doubt, but those will be far less cheap already ...
Latest iteration of budget cruise things - a few dozen or so was launched against Moscow yesterday, with what result?
If the original doctrine does not contain such slow, man-o-man style conflicts of this scale, then the lesson of drones is not yet obvious. It's clear that things will change, but it's not yet clear that by how much and in what direction exactly.
And, you know - till things clears up a modern 155 can still deliver 100+ kg 'stuff' within 30km range in 3-5 min, with very low EW sensitivity. And then walk away.
I respectfully disagree on couple of points:
* Cheap FPV drones from commercial components -> they are definitely not phased out and they still use the same fundamental open-source systems.
Yes, control frequencies change all the time, optical-link instead of radio link was introduced, but nothing fundamental changed, no large-scale production of some bespoke electronics was established, etc.
Russians for example bragged about their "un-jammable" new control link for FPV drones, all they did was recompiling the ELRS firmware for different control frequency (standard ones are 868/915mhz and 2.4ghz) and single company was producing larger antennas for that frequency.
* Modern 155 certainly can't deliver 100kg of explosive, much less to 30km range. Standard 155mm shell weighs ~40kg and contains just 6.5kg of explosive filler.
10" FPV drone can deliver 3kg of explosive filler to ~20km distance and precisely strike moving target or slip through opening in hardened fixed target, both things practically impossible to do with 155mm artillery piece.
Of course there are many situations where artillery will be much more useful then FPV drone as well.
Hey, they do...just now
And make a recon in real time, in the route at the target.
10" FPV drone can deliver 3kg of explosive filler to ~20km distance and precisely strike moving target or slip through opening in hardened fixed target
__________
10" carries up to 5kg to 30+km or 6,5 - to 15+km
there is almost no targets in 20 km zone, both parties try to keep their vehicles at 30+
One another thing which comes to my mind when thinking about "gamechanger" cheap FPV drones -> I think this is the first weapon in the history of warfare where lion-share of development was done via voluntary collaborative effort (aka Open-source software development).
Because those drone are not "developed" by Ukrainian companies, American companies, or even Chinese companies.
Of course for example UA companies/orgs do a lot of work but it's a bit like saying your local car performance tuner (who tunes engine ECU maps, adjusts suspension, etc.) "develops" racing cars.
Game changer innovations which enable the concept -> very maneuverable, rugged, reasonable reliable and ultra-cheap way to precisely deliver payload over considerable distance are following:
* FC Firmware -> what started as a toy project experimenting with first affordable gyro/acc board from nintendo game controllers (Wii console) morphed into cutting-edge firmware for racing drones (Betaflight), where big community of contributors is striving to achieve maximum performance for drone racing, basically translating every stick input from controller to solid, exact response of the flying craft.
This piece of puzzle is a key to enabling Multi-rotor control, whether remote or autonomous (AI guided), without working FC firmware, it wouldn't be possible to control multi-copter at all, even in manual mode.
* ESC Control firmware -> piece of code which generates control impulses for brushless electric motors. Those motors are almost comically primitive pieces, essentially couple of coils, magnets and 2 bearings... No valves, no linkages, no delicate parts at all. Without ESC firmware energizing the coils in exactly the right moment, it's a dead-weight not capable of doing anything, you can't just "connect it to power source", you absolutely need ESC running dedicated firmware.
Top ESC firmwares like bluejay or AM32 are again open-source collaborative efforts.
* RC Control link -> this used to be proprietary piece of hw/sw controlled by RC model companies (Futaba, Spektrum...), but amazing piece of open-source software called ExpressLRS changed all that.
Now we have a open-source radio-link which you can customize to operate on almost any frequency you want to, it's much longer ranged, cheaper and more efficient then closed-source proprietary offerings before it.
By the way each of those projects started before dedicated hardware was available (like I wrote, first practical community FC for multirotors used board from the Wii gaming console) and only after their success created community demand and market, (mostly Chinese) companies stepped in and started producing more dedicated hardware (cheaper, smaller, better performing...).
Almost none of the people working on those technologies are doing it for military purposes and they are quite hostile to any feature requests linked to military use (most of those are stupid btw, like demanding inertial navigation capabilities from firmware running on $40 control board...) and I can't blame them to be honest.
Thanks Jan great overview 👍
This is great. It demonstrates why it is so important for the US or at least the west to control and dominate the space. Waiting on the military to iterate is a losing wager. The private sector will do it faster, better. Even if it's just hobbyists.
I agree.
But I would be bit hesitant to describe the whole ecosystem of Open-source software and hardware which made this possible as just hobbyist.
While it's technically true that Open-source software is often developed by contributors who are not driven by monetary compensation (though that's not the defining characteristic and many contributors in successful OS projects are very well compensated for their OS work), it carries this unfortunate connotation that the project is somehow more primitive, amateurish, of lesser quality, etc...
Meanwhile OS projects like linux operating system (server side, not talking about desktop) won long time ago as the best performing and most secure in their category and underpin our information age civilization as we know it.
Same thing with current advances in generative AI which is transforming the way how we work and access knowledge, frontier of research there is based on Open-Source software collaboration.
Thank you Ben! An excellent call out. The US is not ready, not by a long shot 🤦🏼♂️
Thanks!
Frankly, at this point where we don't know on whose side the US would enter a war, or whether it might attack its former allies, it feels like a relief. Unless they plan to nuke Europe or something.
Excellent observations with knowledgeable basis. Keep speaking. We need your voice. I shared it with Adam Kinzinger. A fellow pilot. I flew F4s in Vietnam.
Article today at Haaretz on an IDF tender for bids to produce 5000 FPV 'suicide' drones.
One condition is in country production facilities due to the international sanctions on arms sales to Israel because of its conduct in Gaza.
This being complicated by other conditions in the tender specifying servo motors from a Taiwanese company, propellers from a Chinese company, and controllers from yet another Chinese company.
This is apparently an attempt to 'catch up' with the developments in drone warfare due to the conflict in Ukraine.
Ironic in that it was Israeli drone technology that enabled Azerbaijan to defeat Armenia in 2020 and an article some time ago noted that in 2020 Israel was using reconnaissance drones to maintain 24/7 surveillance of Gaza.
This does explain in part, though why 'the most humanitarian army in the world' was using 155mm artillery salvos and high capacity bombs instead of precision drone strikes to take out rocket launchers in Gaza even though using bombs and artillery produced significant 'collateral' damage. Although even had the IDF had numbers of cheap FPV drones available that lack of 'collateral' damage might still have precluded their use. And then, when 155mm artillery projectiles and high capacity bombs are free for the asking, why spend money on drones?
I would add "and no consequences are triggered by commiting a war crime"
There is no such thing as a 'war crime' when dealing with 'sub-human animals...'
It is just like 'mowing the grass' in years past...
I assume this is sarcasm, isn't it?
Well, considering the tenor of previous comments I have made here, I presume you are either relatively new or missed those previous comments.
Shall we say that Zionists appear to have learned their lessons from the previous masters of propaganda and mass exterminations in re-defining others as untermensch and in the ways in which they can be eliminated en mass while proclaiming to be acting in 'self-defence...'
Sadly I see far too many in comment sections in other sites who have fully embraced that propaganda...
Not new, just tired and lazy at this hour. Was anyway 95% sure. And yet that 5% made me write that message...
The collateral damage is a feature, not a bug. Killing pre-school girls in Palestine today is seen as preventing their sons fighting in 2045.
Absolutely.
However, this dates back for decades if not to the first Zionist violence in Palestine.
In Israel's Central District in 1956 due to tensions with Jordan the IDF announced a curfew for Israeli-Arab villages between 5PM and 6AM. Shoot to kill anyone seen on the streets during the curfew. At Kafr Qasim workers who were in the fields were not all informed of the new hours. This lead to the killing of nineteen men, six women, ten teenage boys (age 14–17), six girls (age 12–15), and seven young boys (age 8–13) as they returned to their village at teh end of the day.
In October of 2004 Iman Darweesh Al Hams - a 13 year old girl - crossed the 'shoot to kill' line of an IDF outpost in Rafah - the captain in command ordered his troops to shoot her even though some did protest. As she lay wounded the captain walked up to her and fired 2 bullets into her head - as he was leaving her body he turned and emptied his magazine into her body. He was tried for "illegal use of his weapon, conduct unbecoming an officer and perverting the course of justice by an Israeli military court but was found not guilty" and received compensation for his expenses and time in jail during the trial. After his trial the captain continued his service eventually being promoted to the rank of major.
So eliminating future generations of terrorists is a long standing practice...
The end of February Rand article covers nine different scenarios of protracted conflicts between China and US - it is not the conclusion, which is shocking (that we know - USA cannot win a protracted war w a near peer adversary...not like ín case of the expeditionary wars US army was used to in the last 40 yrs) one of the scenarios do have a year captured - it is 2028 - five years ago the date was 2034 - well if someone has a dilemma then it is totally fine - China is getting ín the 85-90% of US - they have no global presence and force projection capabilites - but they have Russia, North Korea and Iran with low end - means cheap but adequate - Military industry and also human resources over 3M without China - which military resources they can commit - without fear of adverse public reactions - this is the reason that US must close the Ukrainian war for good...
Well like IED make a lot of damage, becouse no body see what hapen in SA or rodhesia. And after some companies make mrap vehicles, in the future, after few sed backs with the blood on someone's son. Some make dapv...drone atack protected vehicles, or warever...
Thanks Ben, that was an excellent article and has attracted a swathe of really excellent comments.
Thank you!
Thanks Ben for the warning. An example of the whole drone awareness problem, if the reports were correct, is the attempted assassination last summer. The perpetrator had a drone, but the Secret Service didn't. If they did, they would have seen the perp on the roof. One wonders if they have the capability now.
Thank you!