35 Comments

Tom, just a basic reverse image search shows its an old footage from a Russian missile launch

https://pin.it/2ev4mHupd

And if such thing happened why Ukrainians intelligence aren't bragging about it and nobody is mentioning it ?

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It's too basic for Tom.

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No idea bout the Ukrainian intel (perhaps they're confused by somebody using the 'wrong' image, like I am), but US intel definitely says, yes, there was a second missile launch.

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Can you link to a source about the US intelligence that say there was a 2nd launch ?

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Nope. That's private.

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In press releases, they don't bother with the media's credibility at all, they take the first one that fits the topic. Because the main thing has long been not credibility, but hype, and therefore clickbait.

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Either the US did not inform Ukraine, or, more likely, they told them to keep quiet because they did not want to publicly admit to sharing this information with Ukraine.

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The quality of Russian high-tech products is highly questionable. Therefore, it would not surprise me if these types of missiles were to explode during launch. Another concern is that a small piece of solid matter in the missile's flight path at a speed of 11 Mach can cause a catastrophe.

Now, the question arises as to what happens to the missiles equipped with atomic warheads. It is clear that the trigger for the warheads must be activated to initiate a chain reaction. However, these warheads will still lie somewhere on the ground.

Greetings to Brocken Arrow?

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You might be correct in "quality of Russian high-tech products is highly questionable. " Can you give me a lead on why you believe this?

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20hEdited

The quality of everything made in Russia is highly questionable. At best, it was "OK" when it left the factory, but you'd be better off with Chinese.

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Did you see the photos of the non-stealth Russian stealth plane at an air show with badly fitting panels?

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Me thinks, this is the primary reason why Putin 'can't use nukes': what he's got is unreliable.

Of course, the fact that his and kids of all of his top chieftains are in the EU, is another important reason.

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The missile were not doing Mach 11 soon after launch. Indeed only during final descent onto the target.

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no way it flies 11 Mach, 5-6 Mach max. and it was constructed from some old Soviet-Ru missiles: parts of Bulava and Satana missiles were found on crash site

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Yes, this was the next day, read 3-4 messages: https://t.me/war_monitor/22862

I thought of a failed launch, but then silence.

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That message is dated Nov 21?

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Yes, the first strike was around 5 in the morning, and this message is 3 in the day.

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20hEdited

IMHO the first Oresnik had no explosive warheads not because Pudding was soo nice, but just because Russians were not able to make any reliable explosive warhead on time. So, maybe this time they tried to put some explosives into ....

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So the DSP is not 100 %. Besides other motives-hegemonial interests of the still in office Biden administration and the not yet in office Trump administration there seem to be 2 facts undisputed: Russia has an interest, that NATO does not get a stronghold in Ukraine, and the Ukrainian war theater is the test laboratory for the arms industry in the USA and elsewhere. Peace by strength is the slogan Selenskyj uses and also Trump will follow,. At least that’s my impression, as Trump has chosen a retired General and security adviser as special envoy to Ukraine.

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“Russia has an interest that NATO doesn’t get a foothold in Ukraine”

Well, they’re certainly going about it the wrong way.. aren’t they. They’re as good as guaranteeing NATO is moving closer by their belligerence!

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Testing laboratory for 30+ year old US technology😂

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Trump's envoy to Ukraine wants an immediate cease fire with a demilitarized zone and says Ukraine may not get its territory back until Putin dies.

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Even sitting on Santa"s knee will not get him that

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The way you built this story is worthy of a thriller.

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Putin's new statement on the Oreshnik strikes:

https://glavred.net/ukraine/u-kiyevi-ye-vazhlivi-cili-dlya-urazhennya-oreshnikom-putin-vidav-zayavu-pro-novu-ataku-10618178.html?utm_source=ukrnet_news

Apparently, he believes that a failed launch is not an obstacle to repeated attempts.

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He is actually right in that respect, after a failed attempt you can re-try. Risk another failure if you dont change, but you can try again.

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What do you think about Syrskyi announcing a "Counteroffensive" and saying the situation is "Stable"?

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What else to expect from 'no-step back' and Tik-Tok-president?

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If the reports (if not the image) are correct that an Oreshnik failed at launch, this is not terribly surprising if coupled with the other rumint that there are only 5-10 of this system in existence. If this last is true then the system is still very much in development and as such failures are not a surprise. Especially if the Russian development team is having to adapt to the sanctions regime by buying needed components on the grey/black market. The quality of such components can not be guaranteed as can those with a traceable pedigree, so the risk of failure, especially in complex systems, is much higher.

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The new "old" Russian MR ballistic missile: is this mostly just more smoke and mirrors coming from the Kremlin? [from Putin?]

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More smoke than mirrors when they explode

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And maybe some falling debris? That seems to be very dangerous in Russia, since that is the course of all the damage…

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Thanks for the update. Very intersting.

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