Hello everybody! A ‘quick & dirty‘ update, and then some more Q&A in reaction to ‘reader’s reaction’. AIR/MISSILE WAR ‘Up front’: one correction for my report from yesterday. The Russian Predel-E over-the-horizon radar was actually hit (apparently by HIMARS/MLRS) while deployed somewhere around the coast in southern Kherson Oblast
Yep, no doubt about it. The future of the west is dependent on the complete annihilation of the VSRF.
That Predel-E - sounds like the Russians have very few of them - are they new, or is it just the unit cost (including the graft, obviously) "
The question about support for Russia in the occupied territory is interesting, though the asker seems to believe a Kremlin referendum (LOL).
I know a lot have been deported from occupied territory, and I know Moscow has tried to encourage Russians to relocate to the "new areas". I do not know what impact this has had on the current demographics. Presumably post-war illegal immigrants will be returned to Russia.
RAF Typhoons aren't protecting shit, they are in Romania under rotation and with the same mandate and mission, operating from the same 2 air bases (MK and Fetesti). Either they are in Romania or the Americans or the Canadians, for years now. They are doing Air Police of the Romanian Air Space and enhancing the capabilities of the Romanian F16, nothing more.
Woah! Thanks for the swift update and the FAQs answering. It stirs some ideas flying around here. The sad thing we still come back to the Western stubborness in no sending sufficient ammo, less enough weapons.
These “cosmopoliticians”, doing the Pudding’s work.
"the ZSU has something like a dozen of ‘ready-to-use’ brigades, plus another dozen of new units ‘working up’" those ready-to-use brigades are already commited? or serving as reserves?
Regarding russian support in Southern Ukraine. In spite of all southern regions of Ukraine are russian-speaking (as also was Kyiv) in no way does this mean support of russia at the same rate. These people are free during more than 30 years, so they want to decide themselves what language to speak and in what country to leave. They do need russia for this, and Ukraine is providing this freedom.
Once again - Support of russain language does not mean support of russia, Support of pro-russian parties does not (mostly) means support of russia. Russia will not get russian-speaking Mykolaiv, russian-speaking Kherson, russian-speaking Zaporizhzhya (where I am from) to name a few, because there is no support of russia there, regardless of language spoken.
The situation is worse in Crimea after 9 years of russian (propaganda) control. It's possible that back in 2014 there were more than 50% of ru supporters, but nowhere near 90+% ru PRBS machine talking about.
Thank you, Tom. That you spend your time and regularly post new articles.
Thanks Tom, as always interesting to read.
But little inaccuracy 3rd Assault Brigade is not national guard unit - it is ZSU. "AZOV" brigade of National Guard is 12-th brigade.
>> Given the percentage of people in the occupied oblasts that were supporting Russia in 2014, is there any indication as to whether the percentage of Russian supporters have changed since the invasion/counterattack?
Well, all numbers you're trying to operate about "percentage" of russia fans in occupied oblasts is coming from Russia PRBS machine. All referendums, including a Crimean one, were a total bluff, without any sign of legitimity, without international observers, and with numerous violations.
In DPR/LPR 2014 "referendums" russians defined arbitrary percentage of "yes" voters aforehead, then made up a total number of voters, and multiplied total number on this percent, getting number of "yes" voters, which appeared to be EXACTLY equal to predefined percent, rounded to two digits after a dot, which would never happen in real life.
"Referendums" of 2022 does not stand up to any criticism at all. Not only they were held without city of Zaporizhzhia (about a half total population of Zaporizhzhia oblast), and a big part of Kherson oblast, they do not meet the requirements of even elementary mathematics. For example, for 56.85% of processed ballots in DPR in 2022 there were 94.75% "yes" voters. But then, for 82% of processed ballots, there were 99.06% "yes" voters. Which, if you take time to make simple calculations, means that absolute number of "no" voters has decreased with time. You can see Russian math teacher mocking it in this video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MRQUJVJCE0c)
So, shortly speaking, all these numbers are made up and absolute bullshit, please don't build your suggestions on top of them. Now, for real numbers - rumors were that Crimean referendum in 2014 showed about 60% support (which still means nothing, Ukraine's Constitution doesn't have an option to decide fate of regions on basis of referendums, and to change Constitution you need 3/4 of votes), DPR/LPR referendums in 2014 showed about 30% support, which explains the fact that more than 2.5mln people of 5mln region moved to Ukraine-controlled territory since 2014. As for Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Ukraine-controlled parts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in 2022 - degree of support is minimal, Russian occupants in Mariupol are complaining that "everyone here hate us, we can't take food from locals - it can be poisoned".
Also, mass of non-pro-Ukrainian people in occupied territories is not exactly pro-Russian. They're pro-Soviet, which means they're apolitical, and inert. They will just accept any outcome and live on without active protest.
some additional info
While the analysis is biased in favor of Russ (same as analysis here is biased towards Ukraine), what matters are the links with supporting evidence (same as for this Substack). For both Substacks I appreciate the information provided in the links
Many thanks for your praise of VSU. We know that the conditions on the frontline are terrible especially in the trenches. There is no water, mice, rats and different insects are attacking all the time. Dirty clothes cannot be washed and are simply thrown away. The defenders of Ukraine are real heroes. I wish NATO and Pentagon officials visit the trenches in Donbass and the hospital where wounded are cured. Maybe then they will have more courage to give ammunition.
"3rd Assault Brigade NG" - 3rd Assault is not an NG, but a regular AFU Brigade (made of Azov-Kyiv TD battalion with Azov the political movement volunteers). 3rd NG (Spartan) is a completely different unit.
Do you have any information regarding the claimed deficit of car tires in the Russian army? They say it will hurt their logistics in the autumn as used tires will get stuck in the mud.
It is interesting to hear that the main goal of ZSU is the destruction of Russian military units, not the capture of territory. It is noteworthy to point out that the infamous terrorist Strelkov/Girkin, before his arrest, was complaining time and again that the one of the main errors in Russian doctrine was prioritizing territory over the destruction of the opposing forces.