The water channel to Crimea was closed on Ukrainian side soon after Putin annexed Crimea. They living for 8 years without the water supply. Thus, several months now should not really matter.
NATO is not at war with Russia so shooting down Russian assets inside Ukraine is a big NO-NO. You don't have any legal stance to do it and that will make you an active participant in the war. "Coming close" to NATO airspace is also not enough, it needs to enter that airspace to be considered a target. And even then is not that simple, because of the NATO procedures during "peace time". At war, all these procedures get very simplified but now it's not the case.
Dude, you need a psych evaluation, quick. I can recommend you someone from the Military Hospital in Bucharest. In every link you shared they are talking about treats who enter Romanian air space, which is perfectly normal. Not shooting anything down over Ukrainian teritory like you are fantasizing.
That Predel-E - sounds like the Russians have very few of them - are they new, or is it just the unit cost (including the graft, obviously) "
The question about support for Russia in the occupied territory is interesting, though the asker seems to believe a Kremlin referendum (LOL).
I know a lot have been deported from occupied territory, and I know Moscow has tried to encourage Russians to relocate to the "new areas". I do not know what impact this has had on the current demographics. Presumably post-war illegal immigrants will be returned to Russia.
The question was in regard to "support for Russia in 2014", not after the war started. But between 2014 and 2022, things have changed a lot anyway, and whatever support, it was falling.
RAF Typhoons aren't protecting shit, they are in Romania under rotation and with the same mandate and mission, operating from the same 2 air bases (MK and Fetesti). Either they are in Romania or the Americans or the Canadians, for years now. They are doing Air Police of the Romanian Air Space and enhancing the capabilities of the Romanian F16, nothing more.
Woah! Thanks for the swift update and the FAQs answering. It stirs some ideas flying around here. The sad thing we still come back to the Western stubborness in no sending sufficient ammo, less enough weapons.
These “cosmopoliticians”, doing the Pudding’s work.
"the ZSU has something like a dozen of ‘ready-to-use’ brigades, plus another dozen of new units ‘working up’" those ready-to-use brigades are already commited? or serving as reserves?
Sep 9, 2023·edited Sep 9, 2023Liked by Sarcastosaurus
Regarding russian support in Southern Ukraine. In spite of all southern regions of Ukraine are russian-speaking (as also was Kyiv) in no way does this mean support of russia at the same rate. These people are free during more than 30 years, so they want to decide themselves what language to speak and in what country to leave. They do need russia for this, and Ukraine is providing this freedom.
Once again - Support of russain language does not mean support of russia, Support of pro-russian parties does not (mostly) means support of russia. Russia will not get russian-speaking Mykolaiv, russian-speaking Kherson, russian-speaking Zaporizhzhya (where I am from) to name a few, because there is no support of russia there, regardless of language spoken.
The situation is worse in Crimea after 9 years of russian (propaganda) control. It's possible that back in 2014 there were more than 50% of ru supporters, but nowhere near 90+% ru PRBS machine talking about.
Whenever this nonsense (not what you wrote but the theory that russian speaking ukranians must be pro russia) becomes a topic I like to leave a link to Timothy Snyder's take on it:
Haven't a lot of Ukrainians left the territories occupied since 2014?
Resettlement of Russians is definitely taking place there, but they will have to leave after the liberation. And some of the displaced Ukrainians will certainly come back. Besides that, as far as I know, there are already plans for dealing with Ukrainians who were brainwashed by the Russians.
And overall, I hardly think that support for Russia has increased anywhere in Ukraine as a result of this war, rather the opposite. Or am I mistaken?
From what I know, most of the Ukrainians who ever sympathised with Russia have long since turned their backs on it, except for the very hardcore collaborators.
Yes, on territories except Donetsk & Luhansk, level of ru support dropped significally. But Donbass is very different case. A lot of deaths before and in this war make peace with that people very tough task. I do not believe in this in nearest future. Putin did his job fine there - the more blood spilled the less chances to peace :(
Yes: have read reports ranging from 2 to 5 million of people.
That said: it's different from one area to the other. Apparently, more people have left Luhansk than Donetsk.
Moreover, there are different sentiments in regards of liberating either within the ZSU: some say 'Donetsk does not want to liberated, so why spilling blood for them'...?
I hope that Ukraine will not give up on these people, no matter how indoctrinated they are. There is always a new generation, children who could grow up in a democracy or under the Russian cult of violence & death.
>> Given the percentage of people in the occupied oblasts that were supporting Russia in 2014, is there any indication as to whether the percentage of Russian supporters have changed since the invasion/counterattack?
Well, all numbers you're trying to operate about "percentage" of russia fans in occupied oblasts is coming from Russia PRBS machine. All referendums, including a Crimean one, were a total bluff, without any sign of legitimity, without international observers, and with numerous violations.
In DPR/LPR 2014 "referendums" russians defined arbitrary percentage of "yes" voters aforehead, then made up a total number of voters, and multiplied total number on this percent, getting number of "yes" voters, which appeared to be EXACTLY equal to predefined percent, rounded to two digits after a dot, which would never happen in real life.
"Referendums" of 2022 does not stand up to any criticism at all. Not only they were held without city of Zaporizhzhia (about a half total population of Zaporizhzhia oblast), and a big part of Kherson oblast, they do not meet the requirements of even elementary mathematics. For example, for 56.85% of processed ballots in DPR in 2022 there were 94.75% "yes" voters. But then, for 82% of processed ballots, there were 99.06% "yes" voters. Which, if you take time to make simple calculations, means that absolute number of "no" voters has decreased with time. You can see Russian math teacher mocking it in this video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MRQUJVJCE0c)
So, shortly speaking, all these numbers are made up and absolute bullshit, please don't build your suggestions on top of them. Now, for real numbers - rumors were that Crimean referendum in 2014 showed about 60% support (which still means nothing, Ukraine's Constitution doesn't have an option to decide fate of regions on basis of referendums, and to change Constitution you need 3/4 of votes), DPR/LPR referendums in 2014 showed about 30% support, which explains the fact that more than 2.5mln people of 5mln region moved to Ukraine-controlled territory since 2014. As for Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Ukraine-controlled parts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in 2022 - degree of support is minimal, Russian occupants in Mariupol are complaining that "everyone here hate us, we can't take food from locals - it can be poisoned".
Also, mass of non-pro-Ukrainian people in occupied territories is not exactly pro-Russian. They're pro-Soviet, which means they're apolitical, and inert. They will just accept any outcome and live on without active protest.
Why are you even doing math? Who cares? These oblasts were occupied. Period. Any reasoning after this fact that they wanted to be with occupiers is null and void.
Serega, totally agree with this. Eapecially, if you take a look how the whole occupation started in 2014. With Girkin-Strelkov from Russian FSB agitating and bringing his own people to start dismantling Ukrainian infrastructure in Donetsk and Luhansk. They tried the same thing in Odessa in 2014. Again, my feeling is language preference should not play a role in deciding whether one is pro-Ukraine or not. There are a lot of soldiers on the front lines who speak Russian and are dying for Ukraine. I was born into a Russian speaking family in Ukraine and I am pro-Ukrainian. Go figure.
Absolutely, I'm russian-speaking, born in Donetsk, had left the city I've lived for 28 years at the same day Girkin's gang fleed Slovyansk and entered it.
All really good arguments but could have just shown this video instead, they literally broadcast the fraud evidence on Russian state TV and nobody cared as everyone knew it's a sham already:
While the analysis is biased in favor of Russ (same as analysis here is biased towards Ukraine), what matters are the links with supporting evidence (same as for this Substack). For both Substacks I appreciate the information provided in the links
Many thanks for your praise of VSU. We know that the conditions on the frontline are terrible especially in the trenches. There is no water, mice, rats and different insects are attacking all the time. Dirty clothes cannot be washed and are simply thrown away. The defenders of Ukraine are real heroes. I wish NATO and Pentagon officials visit the trenches in Donbass and the hospital where wounded are cured. Maybe then they will have more courage to give ammunition.
"3rd Assault Brigade NG" - 3rd Assault is not an NG, but a regular AFU Brigade (made of Azov-Kyiv TD battalion with Azov the political movement volunteers). 3rd NG (Spartan) is a completely different unit.
Do you have any information regarding the claimed deficit of car tires in the Russian army? They say it will hurt their logistics in the autumn as used tires will get stuck in the mud.
India played a fair game. They bought the Russian oil with rupees, and the rupees were put to accounts of the Russian companies in Indian banks. The only trouble: rupee is not freely convertible, and the Russian import of Indian goods is too small to use all those rupees. Thus the oil was sent, but the payment is still in India.
It is interesting to hear that the main goal of ZSU is the destruction of Russian military units, not the capture of territory. It is noteworthy to point out that the infamous terrorist Strelkov/Girkin, before his arrest, was complaining time and again that the one of the main errors in Russian doctrine was prioritizing territory over the destruction of the opposing forces.
The water channel to Crimea was closed on Ukrainian side soon after Putin annexed Crimea. They living for 8 years without the water supply. Thus, several months now should not really matter.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Crimean_Canal#2014%E2%80%932023
Wasn’t Ukraine forced to open the water channel to Crimea after annexation?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Crimean_Canal#2014%E2%80%932023
NATO is not at war with Russia so shooting down Russian assets inside Ukraine is a big NO-NO. You don't have any legal stance to do it and that will make you an active participant in the war. "Coming close" to NATO airspace is also not enough, it needs to enter that airspace to be considered a target. And even then is not that simple, because of the NATO procedures during "peace time". At war, all these procedures get very simplified but now it's not the case.
Romania imposed restrictions (NOTAM) in it's own airspace. Some restructions were already imposed since 2022, now they increased the level.
Dude, you need a psych evaluation, quick. I can recommend you someone from the Military Hospital in Bucharest. In every link you shared they are talking about treats who enter Romanian air space, which is perfectly normal. Not shooting anything down over Ukrainian teritory like you are fantasizing.
Yep, no doubt about it. The future of the west is dependent on the complete annihilation of the VSRF.
Спасибо, Том
Thanks Tom.
That Predel-E - sounds like the Russians have very few of them - are they new, or is it just the unit cost (including the graft, obviously) "
The question about support for Russia in the occupied territory is interesting, though the asker seems to believe a Kremlin referendum (LOL).
I know a lot have been deported from occupied territory, and I know Moscow has tried to encourage Russians to relocate to the "new areas". I do not know what impact this has had on the current demographics. Presumably post-war illegal immigrants will be returned to Russia.
The question was in regard to "support for Russia in 2014", not after the war started. But between 2014 and 2022, things have changed a lot anyway, and whatever support, it was falling.
It's like the situation in Ireland. Irish people use the English language in common, but they are still patriots of Ireland.
RAF Typhoons aren't protecting shit, they are in Romania under rotation and with the same mandate and mission, operating from the same 2 air bases (MK and Fetesti). Either they are in Romania or the Americans or the Canadians, for years now. They are doing Air Police of the Romanian Air Space and enhancing the capabilities of the Romanian F16, nothing more.
That's a less diplomatic, but more direct way to tell the truth, thanks.
It's not all me, unfortunately, I did had training in the "more direct" way .
Woah! Thanks for the swift update and the FAQs answering. It stirs some ideas flying around here. The sad thing we still come back to the Western stubborness in no sending sufficient ammo, less enough weapons.
These “cosmopoliticians”, doing the Pudding’s work.
"the ZSU has something like a dozen of ‘ready-to-use’ brigades, plus another dozen of new units ‘working up’" those ready-to-use brigades are already commited? or serving as reserves?
Nope, not committed.
Regarding russian support in Southern Ukraine. In spite of all southern regions of Ukraine are russian-speaking (as also was Kyiv) in no way does this mean support of russia at the same rate. These people are free during more than 30 years, so they want to decide themselves what language to speak and in what country to leave. They do need russia for this, and Ukraine is providing this freedom.
Once again - Support of russain language does not mean support of russia, Support of pro-russian parties does not (mostly) means support of russia. Russia will not get russian-speaking Mykolaiv, russian-speaking Kherson, russian-speaking Zaporizhzhya (where I am from) to name a few, because there is no support of russia there, regardless of language spoken.
The situation is worse in Crimea after 9 years of russian (propaganda) control. It's possible that back in 2014 there were more than 50% of ru supporters, but nowhere near 90+% ru PRBS machine talking about.
Whenever this nonsense (not what you wrote but the theory that russian speaking ukranians must be pro russia) becomes a topic I like to leave a link to Timothy Snyder's take on it:
https://youtu.be/5TURs7rk2Jc?t=1707
This is exactly what my friend from Mykolaiv says, too.
Haven't a lot of Ukrainians left the territories occupied since 2014?
Resettlement of Russians is definitely taking place there, but they will have to leave after the liberation. And some of the displaced Ukrainians will certainly come back. Besides that, as far as I know, there are already plans for dealing with Ukrainians who were brainwashed by the Russians.
And overall, I hardly think that support for Russia has increased anywhere in Ukraine as a result of this war, rather the opposite. Or am I mistaken?
From what I know, most of the Ukrainians who ever sympathised with Russia have long since turned their backs on it, except for the very hardcore collaborators.
Yes, on territories except Donetsk & Luhansk, level of ru support dropped significally. But Donbass is very different case. A lot of deaths before and in this war make peace with that people very tough task. I do not believe in this in nearest future. Putin did his job fine there - the more blood spilled the less chances to peace :(
Sounds bleak. :(
Maybe it will get easier when Pudding is gone. I wish you all the best!
Yes: have read reports ranging from 2 to 5 million of people.
That said: it's different from one area to the other. Apparently, more people have left Luhansk than Donetsk.
Moreover, there are different sentiments in regards of liberating either within the ZSU: some say 'Donetsk does not want to liberated, so why spilling blood for them'...?
I hope that Ukraine will not give up on these people, no matter how indoctrinated they are. There is always a new generation, children who could grow up in a democracy or under the Russian cult of violence & death.
Yup, that with 'all Russian speaking Ukrainians are pro Russia' was lame already back in 1991.
Thank you, Tom. That you spend your time and regularly post new articles.
Thanks Tom, as always interesting to read.
But little inaccuracy 3rd Assault Brigade is not national guard unit - it is ZSU. "AZOV" brigade of National Guard is 12-th brigade.
Sorry, mixed that part up. I'll correct it.
>> Given the percentage of people in the occupied oblasts that were supporting Russia in 2014, is there any indication as to whether the percentage of Russian supporters have changed since the invasion/counterattack?
Well, all numbers you're trying to operate about "percentage" of russia fans in occupied oblasts is coming from Russia PRBS machine. All referendums, including a Crimean one, were a total bluff, without any sign of legitimity, without international observers, and with numerous violations.
In DPR/LPR 2014 "referendums" russians defined arbitrary percentage of "yes" voters aforehead, then made up a total number of voters, and multiplied total number on this percent, getting number of "yes" voters, which appeared to be EXACTLY equal to predefined percent, rounded to two digits after a dot, which would never happen in real life.
"Referendums" of 2022 does not stand up to any criticism at all. Not only they were held without city of Zaporizhzhia (about a half total population of Zaporizhzhia oblast), and a big part of Kherson oblast, they do not meet the requirements of even elementary mathematics. For example, for 56.85% of processed ballots in DPR in 2022 there were 94.75% "yes" voters. But then, for 82% of processed ballots, there were 99.06% "yes" voters. Which, if you take time to make simple calculations, means that absolute number of "no" voters has decreased with time. You can see Russian math teacher mocking it in this video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MRQUJVJCE0c)
So, shortly speaking, all these numbers are made up and absolute bullshit, please don't build your suggestions on top of them. Now, for real numbers - rumors were that Crimean referendum in 2014 showed about 60% support (which still means nothing, Ukraine's Constitution doesn't have an option to decide fate of regions on basis of referendums, and to change Constitution you need 3/4 of votes), DPR/LPR referendums in 2014 showed about 30% support, which explains the fact that more than 2.5mln people of 5mln region moved to Ukraine-controlled territory since 2014. As for Kherson, Zaporizhzhia and Ukraine-controlled parts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in 2022 - degree of support is minimal, Russian occupants in Mariupol are complaining that "everyone here hate us, we can't take food from locals - it can be poisoned".
Also, mass of non-pro-Ukrainian people in occupied territories is not exactly pro-Russian. They're pro-Soviet, which means they're apolitical, and inert. They will just accept any outcome and live on without active protest.
Why are you even doing math? Who cares? These oblasts were occupied. Period. Any reasoning after this fact that they wanted to be with occupiers is null and void.
Well yes, you're completely right here, just wanted to confirm that "numers here, numbers there" don't tell us anything about real support level.
But base statement is of course that Russian are occupiers and criminals, no matter how high the level of support there is.
Serega, totally agree with this. Eapecially, if you take a look how the whole occupation started in 2014. With Girkin-Strelkov from Russian FSB agitating and bringing his own people to start dismantling Ukrainian infrastructure in Donetsk and Luhansk. They tried the same thing in Odessa in 2014. Again, my feeling is language preference should not play a role in deciding whether one is pro-Ukraine or not. There are a lot of soldiers on the front lines who speak Russian and are dying for Ukraine. I was born into a Russian speaking family in Ukraine and I am pro-Ukrainian. Go figure.
Absolutely, I'm russian-speaking, born in Donetsk, had left the city I've lived for 28 years at the same day Girkin's gang fleed Slovyansk and entered it.
All really good arguments but could have just shown this video instead, they literally broadcast the fraud evidence on Russian state TV and nobody cared as everyone knew it's a sham already:
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xq2ty1/russians_counting_blank_ballots_without_even/
some additional info
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/dire-new-western-reports-call-to
While the analysis is biased in favor of Russ (same as analysis here is biased towards Ukraine), what matters are the links with supporting evidence (same as for this Substack). For both Substacks I appreciate the information provided in the links
Many thanks for your praise of VSU. We know that the conditions on the frontline are terrible especially in the trenches. There is no water, mice, rats and different insects are attacking all the time. Dirty clothes cannot be washed and are simply thrown away. The defenders of Ukraine are real heroes. I wish NATO and Pentagon officials visit the trenches in Donbass and the hospital where wounded are cured. Maybe then they will have more courage to give ammunition.
"3rd Assault Brigade NG" - 3rd Assault is not an NG, but a regular AFU Brigade (made of Azov-Kyiv TD battalion with Azov the political movement volunteers). 3rd NG (Spartan) is a completely different unit.
Do you have any information regarding the claimed deficit of car tires in the Russian army? They say it will hurt their logistics in the autumn as used tires will get stuck in the mud.
Or. You could sell the tires to Russian Air Force. I hear they can use them as a cover for their planes.
India played a fair game. They bought the Russian oil with rupees, and the rupees were put to accounts of the Russian companies in Indian banks. The only trouble: rupee is not freely convertible, and the Russian import of Indian goods is too small to use all those rupees. Thus the oil was sent, but the payment is still in India.
It is interesting to hear that the main goal of ZSU is the destruction of Russian military units, not the capture of territory. It is noteworthy to point out that the infamous terrorist Strelkov/Girkin, before his arrest, was complaining time and again that the one of the main errors in Russian doctrine was prioritizing territory over the destruction of the opposing forces.